Pre-referral rectal artesunate is no "magic bullet" in weak health systems.

Severe malaria is a potentially fatal condition that requires urgent treatment. In a clinical trial, a sub-group of children treated with rectal artesunate (RAS) before being referred to a health facility had an increased chance of survival. We recently published in BMC Medicine results of the CARAMAL Project that did not find the same protective effect of pre-referral RAS implemented at scale under real-world conditions in three African countries. Instead, CARAMAL identified serious health system shortfalls that impacted the entire continuum of care, constraining the effectiveness of RAS. Correspondence to the article criticized the observational study design and the alleged interpretation and consequences of our findings.Here, we clarify that we do not dispute the life-saving potential of RAS, and discuss the methodological criticism. We acknowledge the potential for confounding in observational studies. Nevertheless, the totality of CARAMAL evidence is in full support of our conclusion that the conditions under which RAS can be beneficial were not met in our settings, as children often failed to complete referral and post-referral treatment was inadequate.The criticism did not appear to acknowledge the realities of highly malarious settings documented in detail in the CARAMAL project. Suggesting that trial-demonstrated efficacy is sufficient to warrant large-scale deployment of pre-referral RAS ignores the paramount importance of functioning health systems for its delivery, for completing post-referral treatment, and for achieving complete cure. Presenting RAS as a "magic bullet" distracts from the most urgent priority: fixing health systems so they can provide a functioning continuum of care and save the lives of sick children.The data underlying our publication is freely accessible on Zenodo.

Pre-referral rectal artesunate: no cure for unhealthy systems.

Pre-referral rectal artesunate suppositories can save the lives of children with severe malaria if patients receive adequate post-referral care. A multi-country randomised controlled trial reporting on the efficacy of rectal artesunate informed the current WHO guidelines. In October, 2022, we reported on the findings of the Community Access to Rectal Artesunate for Malaria (CARAMAL) project, a carefully monitored roll-out of quality-assured rectal artesunate into established community-based health-care systems in DR Congo, Nigeria, and Uganda. The aim of the project was to understand the challenges involved in the successful real-world implementation of pre-referral rectal artesunate and to inform subsequent scale-up in endemic countries. In our study, we found that children treated with pre-referral rectal artesunate in routine clinical practice did not have an increased chance of survival, most likely explained by shortfalls along the continuum of care. A substantial proportion of the more than 6200 severely ill children that were followed up 28 days after treatment initiation did not receive comprehensive severe malaria care, either due to an incomplete referral to a secondary facility, or due to incomplete post-referral treatment. The observational study design allowed for a realistic assessment of the obstacles involved in implementing pre-referral rectal artesunate in settings where malaria mortality remains high. Without improving the entire continuum of care, children will continue to die from severe malaria and promising interventions will fail to meet their full potential.

How long is the last mile? Evaluating successful malaria elimination trajectories.

BACKGROUND: Many national malaria programmes have set goals of eliminating malaria, but realistic timelines for achieving this goal remain unclear. In this investigation, historical data are collated on countries that successfully eliminated malaria to assess how long elimination has taken in the past, and thus to inform feasible timelines for achieving it in the future. METHODS: Annual malaria case series were sought for 56 successful elimination programmes through a non-systematic review. Up to 40 years of annual case counts were compiled leading up to the first year in which zero locally acquired or indigenous cases were reported. To separate the period over which effective elimination efforts occurred from prior background trends, annual case totals were log transformed, and their slopes evaluated for a breakpoint in linear trend using the segmented package in R. The number of years from the breakpoint to the first year with zero cases and the decline rate over that period were then calculated. Wilcox-Mann-Whitney tests were used to evaluate whether a set of territory characteristics were associated with the timelines and decline rates. RESULTS: Case series declining to the first year with zero cases were compiled for 45/56 of the candidate elimination programmes, and statistically significant breakpoints were identified for 42. The median timeline from the breakpoint to the first year with zero local cases was 12 years, over which cases declined at a median rate of 54% per year. Prior to the breakpoint, the median trend was slightly decreasing with median annual decline of < 3%. Timelines to elimination were fastest among territories that lacked land boundaries, had centroids in the Tropics, received low numbers of imported cases, and had elimination certified by the World Health Organization. CONCLUSION: The historical case series assembled here may help countries with aspirations of malaria elimination to set feasible milestones towards this goal. Setting goals for malaria elimination on short timescales may be most appropriate in isolated, low importation settings, such as islands, while other regions aiming to eliminate malaria must consider how to sustainably fund and maintain vital case management and vector control services until zero cases are reached.

Effectiveness of rectal artesunate as pre-referral treatment for severe malaria in children under 5 years of age: a multi-country observational study.

BACKGROUND: To prevent child deaths from severe malaria, early parenteral treatment is essential. Yet, in remote rural areas, accessing facilities offering parenteral antimalarials may be difficult. A randomised controlled trial found pre-referral treatment with rectal artesunate (RAS) to reduce deaths and disability in children who arrived at a referral facility with delay. This study examined the effectiveness of pre-referral RAS treatment implemented through routine procedures of established community-based health care systems. METHODS: An observational study accompanied the roll-out of RAS in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Nigeria and Uganda. Children <5 years of age presenting to a community-based health provider with a positive malaria test and signs of severe malaria were enrolled and followed up during admission and after 28 days to assess their health status and treatment history. The primary outcome was death; covariates of interest included RAS use, referral completion, and post-referral treatment. RESULTS: Post-roll-out, RAS was administered to 88% of patients in DRC, 52% in Nigeria, and 70% in Uganda. The overall case fatality rate (CFR) was 6.7% (135/2011) in DRC, 11.7% (69/589) in Nigeria, and 0.5% (19/3686) in Uganda; 13.8% (865/6286) of patients were sick on day 28. The CFR was higher after RAS roll-out in Nigeria (16.1 vs. 4.2%) and stable in DRC (6.7 vs. 6.6%) and Uganda (0.7 vs. 0.3%). In DRC and Nigeria, children receiving RAS were more likely to die than those not receiving RAS (aOR=3.06, 95% CI 1.35-6.92 and aOR=2.16, 95% CI 1.11-4.21, respectively). Only in Uganda, RAS users were less likely to be dead or sick at follow-up (aOR=0.60, 95% CI 0.45-0.79). Post-referral parenteral antimalarials plus oral artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), a proxy for appropriate post-referral treatment, was protective. However, in referral health facilities, ACT was not consistently administered after parenteral treatment (DRC 68.4%, Nigeria 0%, Uganda 70.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Implemented at scale to the recommended target group, pre-referral RAS had no beneficial effect on child survival in three highly malaria-endemic settings. RAS is unlikely to reduce malaria deaths unless health system issues such as referral and quality of care at all levels are addressed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov : NCT03568344.

The fight against malaria: Diminishing gains and growing challenges.

Since the year 2000, historic reductions in malaria incidence and mortality have been driven by the widespread distribution of bed nets, drugs, and insecticides for the prevention and treatment of malaria. Scale-up of these tools has been enabled by an increase in malaria financing compounded by price reductions, yet these trends are unlikely to continue at the same rate. Rapid population growth in high-endemic areas requires procurement of more of these tools just to maintain current coverage, even as prices are likely to increase as resistance to drugs and insecticides forces shifts to newer products. Further progress toward the long-term goal of malaria eradication requires a combination of greater funding, more cost-effective resource allocation, and fundamental changes to the global malaria control strategy.

Community access to rectal artesunate for malaria (CARAMAL): A large-scale observational implementation study in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria and Uganda.

The key to reducing malaria deaths in highly endemic areas is prompt access to quality case management. Given that many severe cases occur at peripheral level, rectal artesunate (RAS) in the form of suppositories was developed in the 1990s, allowing for rapid initiation of life-saving antimalarial treatment before referral to a health facility with full case management capabilities. One randomized controlled trial published in 2009 showed a protective effect of RAS pre-referral treatment against overall mortality of 26%, but with significant differences according to study sites and length of referral. Two important issues remained unaddressed: (1) whether the mortality impact of RAS observed under controlled trial conditions could be replicated under real-world circumstances; and (2) clear operational guidance for the wide-scale implementation of RAS, including essential health system determinants for optimal impact. From 2018 to 2020, the Community Access to Rectal Artesunate for Malaria (CARAMAL) project was conducted as a large-scale observational implementation study in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Nigeria, and Uganda (registered on ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT03568344). CARAMAL aimed to provide high-quality field evidence on the two issues above, in three remote settings with high malaria endemicity. A number of complementary study components were implemented. The core of the CARAMAL study was the Patient Surveillance System (PSS), which allowed tracking of cases of severe febrile illness from first contact at the periphery to a referral health facility, and then on to a Day 28 visit at the home of the patient. Community and provider cross-sectional surveys complemented the PSS. Here we describe in some detail RAS implementation, as well as the key CARAMAL study components and basic implementation experience. This manuscript does not intend to present key study results, but provides an extensive reference document for the companion papers describing the impact, referral process, post-referral treatment and costing of the RAS intervention.

Using observed incidence to calibrate the transmission level of a mathematical model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics including case management and importation.

In this work, we present a simple and flexible model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics which can be easily combined with routinely collected data on local and imported case counts to quantify transmission intensity and simulate control strategies. This model extends the model from White et al. (2016) by including case management interventions targeting liver-stage or blood-stage parasites, as well as imported infections. The endemic steady state of the model is used to derive a relationship between the observed incidence and the transmission rate in order to calculate reproduction numbers and simulate intervention scenarios. To illustrate its potential applications, the model is used to calculate local reproduction numbers in Panama and identify areas of sustained malaria transmission that should be targeted by control interventions.

Mapping the endemicity and seasonality of clinical malaria for intervention targeting in Haiti using routine case data.

Towards the goal of malaria elimination on Hispaniola, the National Malaria Control Program of Haiti and its international partner organisations are conducting a campaign of interventions targeted to high-risk communities prioritised through evidence-based planning. Here we present a key piece of this planning: an up-to-date, fine-scale endemicity map and seasonality profile for Haiti informed by monthly case counts from 771 health facilities reporting from across the country throughout the 6-year period from January 2014 to December 2019. To this end, a novel hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework was developed in which a latent, pixel-level incidence surface with spatio-temporal innovations is linked to the observed case data via a flexible catchment sub-model designed to account for the absence of data on case household locations. These maps have focussed the delivery of indoor residual spraying and focal mass drug administration in the Grand'Anse Department in South-Western Haiti.

Evaluating Vertical Malaria Community Health Worker Programs as Malaria Declines: Learning From Program Evaluations in Honduras and Lao PDR.

BACKGROUND: Across the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) and Central America, governments commonly employ community health workers (CHWs) to improve access to and uptake of malaria services. Many of these networks are vertical in design, organized to extend malaria-only services to those remaining communities in which malaria persists. METHODS: Between 2019 and 2020, national ministries of health (MOH) and Clinton Health Access Initiative conducted mixed-methods CHW program evaluations across the GMS and Central America. Routine surveillance and programmatic data were analyzed to quantify CHW contributions to malaria elimination objectives and identify gaps and challenges. Semistructured interviews were conducted with governmental and nongovernmental stakeholders from central to community level. This article draws comparisons between the Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) and Honduras CHW program evaluation results to distill broader hypotheses about how vertical CHW programs might evolve as their primary mission nears its end. RESULTS: CHWs contribute substantially to malaria case detection and surveillance, diagnosing and treating 27% of malaria cases in Lao PDR and 55% in the department of Gracias a Dios, Honduras in 2019. In the same year, malaria test positivity neared less than 1% in both countries. In 2019, 80% of CHWs in Lao PDR and 74% in Gracias a Dios, Honduras did not report a single malaria case. From inception, both programs were organized as vertical (malaria-only) CHW programs reliant upon Global Fund financing for malaria commodities, training, supervision and, where applicable, remuneration. CONCLUSIONS: Although community case management by CHWs has been highly impactful in reducing malaria cases to near zero, new challenges of acceptability and effectiveness of malaria-only service delivery, feasibility of continued vertical program management, and sustainable financing have emerged. To achieve and sustain reductions in malaria, surveillance and delivery platforms must be redesigned to encourage (and reward) care seeking based on experience of symptoms and not on a patient or caregiver's presumptive diagnosis of disease. By expanding the roles and responsibilities of currently vertical malaria CHWs, malarial interventions can be optimized and sustained. Such a shift will also position existing community-based platforms to be resilient and responsive as epidemiology of disease and community need shift.

Reducing the Carbon Footprint of Academic Conferences: The Example of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

We calculated carbon emissions associated with air travel of 4,834 participants at the 2019 annual conference of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (ASTMH). Together, participants traveled a total of 27.7 million miles or 44.6 million kilometers. This equates to 58 return trips to the moon. Estimated carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions were 8,646 metric tons or the total weekly carbon footprint of approximately 9,366 average American households. These emissions contribute to climate change and thus may exacerbate many of the global diseases that conference attendees seek to combat. Options to reduce conference travel-associated emissions include 1) alternating in-person and online conferences, 2) offering a hybrid in-person/online conference, and 3) decentralizing the conference with multiple conference venues. Decentralized ASTMH conferences may allow for up to 64% reduction in travel distance and 58% reduction in CO2e emissions. Given the urgency of the climate crisis and the clear association between global warming and global health, ways to reduce carbon emissions should be considered.

"Remarkable solutions to impossible problems": lessons for malaria from the eradication of smallpox.

BACKGROUND: Malaria elimination and eventual eradication will require internationally coordinated approaches; sustained engagement from politicians, communities, and funders; efficient organizational structures; innovation and new tools; and well-managed programmes. As governments and the global malaria community seek to achieve these goals, their efforts should be informed by the substantial past experiences of other disease elimination and eradication programmes, including that of the only successful eradication programme of a human pathogen to date: smallpox. METHODS: A review of smallpox literature was conducted to evaluate how the smallpox programme addressed seven challenges that will likely confront malaria eradication efforts, including fostering international support for the eradication undertaking, coordinating programmes and facilitating research across the world's endemic countries, securing sufficient funding, building domestic support for malaria programmes nationally, ensuring strong community support, identifying the most effective programmatic strategies, and managing national elimination programmes efficiently. RESULTS: Review of 118 publications describing how smallpox programmes overcame these challenges suggests eradication may succeed as a collection of individual country programmes each deriving local solutions to local problems, yet with an important role for the World Health Organization and other international entities to facilitate and coordinate these efforts and encourage new innovations. Publications describing the smallpox experience suggest the importance of avoiding burdensome bureaucracy while employing flexible, problem-solving staff with both technical and operational backgrounds to overcome numerous unforeseen challenges. Smallpox's hybrid strategy of leveraging basic health services while maintaining certain separate functions to ensure visibility, clear targets, and strong management, aligns with current malaria approaches. Smallpox eradication succeeded by employing data-driven strategies that targeted resources to the places where they were most needed rather than attempting to achieve mass coverage everywhere, a potentially useful lesson for malaria programmes seeking universal coverage with available tools. Finally, lessons from smallpox programmes suggest strong engagement with the private sector and affected communities can help increase the sustainability and reach of today's malaria programmes. CONCLUSIONS: It remains unclear whether malaria eradication is feasible, but neither was it clear whether smallpox eradication was feasible until it was achieved. To increase chances of success, malaria programmes should seek to strengthen programme management, measurement, and operations, while building flexible means of sharing experiences, tools, and financing internationally.

Strengthening surveillance systems for malaria elimination: a global landscaping of system performance, 2015-2017.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance is a core component of an effective system to support malaria elimination. Poor surveillance data will prevent countries from monitoring progress towards elimination and targeting interventions to the last remaining at-risk places. An evaluation of the performance of surveillance systems in 16 countries was conducted to identify key gaps which could be addressed to build effective systems for malaria elimination. METHODS: A standardized surveillance system landscaping was conducted between 2015 and 2017 in collaboration with governmental malaria programmes. Malaria surveillance guidelines from the World Health Organization and other technical bodies were used to identify the characteristics of an optimal surveillance system, against which systems of study countries were compared. Data collection was conducted through review of existing material and datasets, and interviews with key stakeholders, and the outcomes were summarized descriptively. Additionally, the cumulative fraction of incident infections reported through surveillance systems was estimated using surveillance data, government records, survey data, and other scientific sources. RESULTS: The landscaping identified common gaps across countries related to the lack of surveillance coverage in remote communities or in the private sector, the lack of adequate health information architecture to capture high quality case-based data, poor integration of data from other sources such as intervention information, poor visualization of generated information, and its lack of availability for making programmatic decisions. The median percentage of symptomatic cases captured by the surveillance systems in the 16 countries was estimated to be 37%, mostly driven by the lack of treatment-seeking in the public health sector (64%) or, in countries with large private sectors, the lack of integration of this sector within the surveillance system. CONCLUSIONS: The landscaping analysis undertaken provides a clear framework through which to identify multiple gaps in current malaria surveillance systems. While perfect systems are not required to eliminate malaria, closing the gaps identified will allow countries to deploy resources more efficiently, track progress, and accelerate towards malaria elimination. Since the landscaping undertaken here, several countries have addressed some of the identified gaps by improving coverage of surveillance, integrating case data with other information, and strengthening visualization and use of data.

Priority use cases for antibody-detecting assays of recent malaria exposure as tools to achieve and sustain malaria elimination.

Measurement of malaria specific antibody responses represents a practical and informative method for malaria control programs to assess recent exposure to infection. Technical advances in recombinant antigen production, serological screening platforms, and analytical methods have enabled the identification of several target antigens for laboratory based and point-of-contact tests. Questions remain as to how these serological assays can best be integrated into malaria surveillance activities to inform programmatic decision-making. This report synthesizes discussions from a convening at Institut Pasteur in Paris in June 2017 aimed at defining practical and informative use cases for serology applications and highlights five programmatic uses for serological assays including: documenting the absence of transmission; stratification of transmission; measuring the effect of interventions; informing a decentralized immediate response;  and testing and treating P. vivax hypnozoite carriers.

Using parasite genetic and human mobility data to infer local and cross-border malaria connectivity in Southern Africa.

Local and cross-border importation remain major challenges to malaria elimination and are difficult to measure using traditional surveillance data. To address this challenge, we systematically collected parasite genetic data and travel history from thousands of malaria cases across northeastern Namibia and estimated human mobility from mobile phone data. We observed strong fine-scale spatial structure in local parasite populations, providing positive evidence that the majority of cases were due to local transmission. This result was largely consistent with estimates from mobile phone and travel history data. However, genetic data identified more detailed and extensive evidence of parasite connectivity over hundreds of kilometers than the other data, within Namibia and across the Angolan and Zambian borders. Our results provide a framework for incorporating genetic data into malaria surveillance and provide evidence that both strengthening of local interventions and regional coordination are likely necessary to eliminate malaria in this region of Southern Africa.

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention packaged with malnutrition prevention in northern Nigeria: A pragmatic trial (SMAMP study) with nested case-control.

Integrating seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC), recommended by the WHO since 2012 to prevent malaria infection, with nutrition interventions may improve health outcomes and operational efficiencies. This study assessed the effects of co-packaging interventions on distribution coverage, nutrition, and clinical malaria outcomes in northern Nigeria. From August to November 2014, community volunteers delivered sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine (SP-AQ) door-to-door each month to approximately 7,000 children aged 6-24 months in seven wards of Madobi, Kano State, Nigeria. In three of the wards children additionally received a lipid-based nutrient supplement (LNS-medium quantity), Plumpy Doz. Coverage, adherence, and anthropometric outcomes were assessed through baseline, midline, and endline household surveys. A facility-based case-control study was also conducted to estimate impact on clinical malaria outcomes. Coverage of SP-AQ was similar between arms at 89% (n = 2,409 child-months [88-90%]) in the SP-AQ only arm and 90% (n = 1,947 child-months [88-92%]) in the SP-AQ plus LNS arm (p = 0.52). Coverage of LNS was 83% (n = 2,409 child-months [81-84%]). Whilst there were marked changes in anthropometric status between baseline, midline and endline, these were largely accounted for by socioeconomic status and must be interpreted with care due to possible measurement issues, especially length-based indices. Overall nutritional status of our most robust measure, weight-for-age, does appear to have improved by endline, but was similar in the two study arms, suggesting no additional benefit of the LNS. While the odds of clinical malaria among those who received the intended intervention were lower in each study arm compared to children who did not receive interventions (SP-AQ only OR = 0.23 [0.09-0.6]; SP-AQ plus LNS OR = 0.22 [0.09-0.55]), LNS was not shown to have an additional impact. Coverage of SMC was high regardless of integrating LNS delivery into the SMC campaign. Supplementation with LNS did not appear to impact nutritional outcomes, but appeared to enhance the impact of SP-AQ on clinical odds of malaria. These results indicate that combining nutritional interventions with seasonal malaria chemoprevention in high-risk areas can be done successfully, warranting further exploration with other products or dosing. Trial Registration: ISRCTN 11413895.

Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions.

There is a long history of considering the constituent components of malaria risk and the malaria transmission cycle via the use of mathematical models, yet strategic planning in endemic countries tends not to take full advantage of available disease intelligence to tailor interventions. National malaria programmes typically make operational decisions about where to implement vector control and surveillance activities based upon simple categorizations of annual parasite incidence. With technological advances, an enormous opportunity exists to better target specific malaria interventions to the places where they will have greatest impact by mapping and evaluating metrics related to a variety of risk components, each of which describes a different facet of the transmission cycle. Here, these components and their implications for operational decision-making are reviewed. For each component, related mappable malaria metrics are also described which may be measured and evaluated by malaria programmes seeking to better understand the determinants of malaria risk. Implementing tailored programmes based on knowledge of the heterogeneous distribution of the drivers of malaria transmission rather than only consideration of traditional metrics such as case incidence has the potential to result in substantial improvements in decision-making. As programmes improve their ability to prioritize their available tools to the places where evidence suggests they will be most effective, elimination aspirations may become increasingly feasible.

Introducing malaria rapid diagnostic tests in private medicine retail outlets: A systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: Many patients with malaria-like symptoms seek treatment in private medicine retail outlets (PMR) that distribute malaria medicines but do not traditionally provide diagnostic services, potentially leading to overtreatment with antimalarial drugs. To achieve universal access to prompt parasite-based diagnosis, many malaria-endemic countries are considering scaling up malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in these outlets, an intervention that may require legislative changes and major investments in supporting programs and infrastructures. This review identifies studies that introduced malaria RDTs in PMRs and examines study outcomes and success factors to inform scale up decisions. METHODS: Published and unpublished studies that introduced malaria RDTs in PMRs were systematically identified and reviewed. Literature published before November 2016 was searched in six electronic databases, and unpublished studies were identified through personal contacts and stakeholder meetings. Outcomes were extracted from publications or provided by principal investigators. RESULTS: Six published and six unpublished studies were found. Most studies took place in sub-Saharan Africa and were small-scale pilots of RDT introduction in drug shops or pharmacies. None of the studies assessed large-scale implementation in PMRs. RDT uptake varied widely from 8%-100%. Provision of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for patients testing positive ranged from 30%-99%, and was more than 85% in five studies. Of those testing negative, provision of antimalarials varied from 2%-83% and was less than 20% in eight studies. Longer provider training, lower RDT retail prices and frequent supervision appeared to have a positive effect on RDT uptake and provider adherence to test results. Performance of RDTs by PMR vendors was generally good, but disposal of medical waste and referral of patients to public facilities were common challenges. CONCLUSIONS: Expanding services of PMRs to include malaria diagnostic services may hold great promise to improve malaria case management and curb overtreatment with antimalarials. However, doing so will require careful planning, investment and additional research to develop and sustain effective training, supervision, waste-management, referral and surveillance programs beyond the public sector.

Expanding access to parasite-based malaria diagnosis through retail drug shops in Tanzania: evidence from a randomized trial and implications for treatment.

BACKGROUND: Tanzania has seen a reduction in the fraction of fevers caused by malaria, likely due in part to scale-up of control measures. While national guidelines require parasite-based diagnosis prior to treatment, it is estimated that more than half of suspected malaria treatment-seeking in Tanzania initiates in the private retail sector, where diagnosis by malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) or microscopy is illegal. This pilot study investigated whether the introduction of RDTs into Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs) under realistic market conditions would improve case management practices. METHODS: Dispensers from ADDOs in two intervention districts in Tanzania were trained to stock and perform RDTs and monitored quarterly. Each district was assigned a different recommended retail price to evaluate the need for a subsidy. Malaria RDT and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) uptake and availability were measured pre-intervention and 1 year post-intervention through structured surveys of ADDO owners and exiting customers in both intervention districts and one contiguous control district. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were used to compare the three districts and identify predictive variables for testing. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: A total of 310 dispensers from 262 ADDOs were trained to stock and perform RDTs. RDT availability in intervention ADDOs increased from 1% (n = 172) to 73% (n = 163) during the study; ACT medicines were available in 75% of 260 pre-intervention and 68% of 254 post-intervention ADDOs. Pre-treatment testing performed within the ADDO increased from 0 to 65% of suspected malaria patients who visited a shop (95% CI 60.8-69.6%) with no difference between intervention districts. Overall parasite-based diagnosis increased from 19 to 74% in intervention districts and from 3 to 18% in the control district. Prior knowledge of RDT availability (aOR = 1.9, p = 0.03) and RDT experience (aOR = 1.9, p = 0.01) were predictors for testing. Adherence data indicated that 75% of malaria positives received ACT, while 3% of negatives received ACT. CONCLUSIONS: Trained and supervised ADDO dispensers in rural Tanzania performed and sold RDTs under real market conditions to two-thirds of suspected malaria patients during this one-year pilot. These results support the hypothesis that introducing RDTs into regulated private retail sector settings can improve malaria testing and treatment practices without an RDT subsidy. Trial registration ISRCTN ISRCTN14115509.

Vectorial capacity and vector control: reconsidering sensitivity to parameters for malaria elimination.

BACKGROUND: Major gains have been made in reducing malaria transmission in many parts of the world, principally by scaling-up coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying. Historically, choice of vector control intervention has been largely guided by a parameter sensitivity analysis of George Macdonald's theory of vectorial capacity that suggested prioritizing methods that kill adult mosquitoes. While this advice has been highly successful for transmission suppression, there is a need to revisit these arguments as policymakers in certain areas consider which combinations of interventions are required to eliminate malaria. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using analytical solutions to updated equations for vectorial capacity we build on previous work to show that, while adult killing methods can be highly effective under many circumstances, other vector control methods are frequently required to fill effective coverage gaps. These can arise due to pre-existing or developing mosquito physiological and behavioral refractoriness but also due to additive changes in the relative importance of different vector species for transmission. Furthermore, the optimal combination of interventions will depend on the operational constraints and costs associated with reaching high coverage levels with each intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Reaching specific policy goals, such as elimination, in defined contexts requires increasingly non-generic advice from modelling. Our results emphasize the importance of measuring baseline epidemiology, intervention coverage, vector ecology and program operational constraints in predicting expected outcomes with different combinations of interventions.

Mapping residual transmission for malaria elimination.

Eliminating malaria from a defined region involves draining the endemic parasite reservoir and minimizing local malaria transmission around imported malaria infections . In the last phases of malaria elimination, as universal interventions reap diminishing marginal returns, national resources must become increasingly devoted to identifying where residual transmission is occurring. The needs for accurate measures of progress and practical advice about how to allocate scarce resources require new analytical methods to quantify fine-grained heterogeneity in malaria risk. Using routine national surveillance data from Swaziland (a sub-Saharan country on the verge of elimination), we estimated individual reproductive numbers. Fine-grained maps of reproductive numbers and local malaria importation rates were combined to show 'malariogenic potential', a first for malaria elimination. As countries approach elimination, these individual-based measures of transmission risk provide meaningful metrics for planning programmatic responses and prioritizing areas where interventions will contribute most to malaria elimination.