Post-trial monitoring of a randomised controlled trial of intensive glycaemic control in type 2 diabetes extended from 10 years to 24 years (UKPDS 91).

BACKGROUND: The 20-year UK Prospective Diabetes Study showed major clinical benefits for people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes randomly allocated to intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin therapy or metformin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control. 10-year post-trial follow-up identified enduring and emerging glycaemic and metformin legacy treatment effects. We aimed to determine whether these effects would wane by extending follow-up for another 14 years. METHODS: 5102 patients enrolled between 1977 and 1991, of whom 4209 (82·5%) participants were originally randomly allocated to receive either intensive glycaemic control (sulfonylurea or insulin, or if overweight, metformin) or conventional glycaemic control (primarily diet). At the end of the 20-year interventional trial, 3277 surviving participants entered a 10-year post-trial monitoring period, which ran until Sept 30, 2007. Eligible participants for this study were all surviving participants at the end of the 10-year post-trial monitoring period. An extended follow-up of these participants was done by linking them to their routinely collected National Health Service (NHS) data for another 14 years. Clinical outcomes were derived from records of deaths, hospital admissions, outpatient visits, and accident and emergency unit attendances. We examined seven prespecified aggregate clinical outcomes (ie, any diabetes-related endpoint, diabetes-related death, death from any cause, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, and microvascular disease) by the randomised glycaemic control strategy on an intention-to-treat basis using Kaplan-Meier time-to-event and log-rank analyses. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN75451837. FINDINGS: Between Oct 1, 2007, and Sept 30, 2021, 1489 (97·6%) of 1525 participants could be linked to routinely collected NHS administrative data. Their mean age at baseline was 50·2 years (SD 8·0), and 41·3% were female. The mean age of those still alive as of Sept 30, 2021, was 79·9 years (SD 8·0). Individual follow-up from baseline ranged from 0 to 42 years, median 17·5 years (IQR 12·3-26·8). Overall follow-up increased by 21%, from 66 972 to 80 724 person-years. For up to 24 years after trial end, the glycaemic and metformin legacy effects showed no sign of waning. Early intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control, showed overall relative risk reductions of 10% (95% CI 2-17; p=0·015) for death from any cause, 17% (6-26; p=0·002) for myocardial infarction, and 26% (14-36; p<0·0001) for microvascular disease. Corresponding absolute risk reductions were 2·7%, 3·3%, and 3·5%, respectively. Early intensive glycaemic control with metformin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control, showed overall relative risk reductions of 20% (95% CI 5-32; p=0·010) for death from any cause and 31% (12-46; p=0·003) for myocardial infarction. Corresponding absolute risk reductions were 4·9% and 6·2%, respectively. No significant risk reductions during or after the trial for stroke or peripheral vascular disease were observed for both intensive glycaemic control groups, and no significant risk reduction for microvascular disease was observed for metformin therapy. INTERPRETATION: Early intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin, or with metformin, compared with conventional glycaemic control, appears to confer a near-lifelong reduced risk of death and myocardial infarction. Achieving near normoglycaemia immediately following diagnosis might be essential to minimise the lifetime risk of diabetes-related complications to the greatest extent possible. FUNDING: University of Oxford Nuffield Department of Population Health Pump Priming.

Comparison of medical resources and costs among patients with coronary heart disease and impaired glucose tolerance in the Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation trial.

BACKGROUND: The Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation (ACE) trial (ISRCTN91899513) evaluated the alpha-glucosidase inhibitor acarbose, compared with placebo, in 6522 patients with coronary heart disease and impaired glucose tolerance in China and showed a reduced incidence of diabetes. We assessed the within-trial medical resource use and costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). METHODS: Resource use data were collected prospectively within the ACE trial. Hospitalizations, medications, and outpatient visits were valued using Chinese unit costs. Medication use was measured in drug days, with cardiovascular and diabetes drugs summed across the trial by participant. Health-related quality of life was captured using the EuroQol-5 Dimension-3 Level questionnaire. Regression analyses were used to compare resource use, costs, and QALYs, accounting for regional variation. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 3% yearly. RESULTS: Hospitalizations were 6% higher in the acarbose arm during the trial (rate ratio 1.06, p = .009), but there were no significant differences in total inpatient days (rate ratio 1.04, p = .30). Total costs per participant, including study drug, were significantly higher for acarbose (¥ [Yuan] 56 480, £6213), compared with placebo (¥48 079, £5289; mean ratio 1.18, p < 0.001). QALYs reported by participants in the acarbose arm (3.96 QALYs) were marginally higher than in the placebo arm (3.95 QALYs), but the difference was not statistically significant (0.01 QALYs; p = .58). CONCLUSIONS: Acarbose, compared with placebo, participants cost more due to study drug costs and reported no statistically significant difference in QALYs. These higher within-trial costs could potentially be offset in future by savings from the acarbose-related lower incidence of diabetes.

Orthostatic Hypotension, Hypertension Treatment, and Cardiovascular Disease: An Individual Participant Meta-Analysis.

Importance: There are ongoing concerns about the benefits of intensive vs standard blood pressure (BP) treatment among adults with orthostatic hypotension or standing hypotension. Objective: To determine the effect of a lower BP treatment goal or active therapy vs a standard BP treatment goal or placebo on cardiovascular disease (CVD) or all-cause mortality in strata of baseline orthostatic hypotension or baseline standing hypotension. Data Sources: Individual participant data meta-analysis based on a systematic review of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL databases through May 13, 2022. Study Selection: Randomized trials of BP pharmacologic treatment (more intensive BP goal or active agent) with orthostatic hypotension assessments. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Individual participant data meta-analysis extracted following PRISMA guidelines. Effects were determined using Cox proportional hazard models using a single-stage approach. Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcomes were CVD or all-cause mortality. Orthostatic hypotension was defined as a decrease in systolic BP of at least 20 mm Hg and/or diastolic BP of at least 10 mm Hg after changing position from sitting to standing. Standing hypotension was defined as a standing systolic BP of 110 mm Hg or less or standing diastolic BP of 60 mm Hg or less. Results: The 9 trials included 29 235 participants followed up for a median of 4 years (mean age, 69.0 [SD, 10.9] years; 48% women). There were 9% with orthostatic hypotension and 5% with standing hypotension at baseline. More intensive BP treatment or active therapy lowered risk of CVD or all-cause mortality among those without baseline orthostatic hypotension (hazard ratio [HR], 0.81; 95% CI, 0.76-0.86) similarly to those with baseline orthostatic hypotension (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.70-1.00; P = .68 for interaction of treatment with baseline orthostatic hypotension). More intensive BP treatment or active therapy lowered risk of CVD or all-cause mortality among those without baseline standing hypotension (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.75-0.85), and nonsignificantly among those with baseline standing hypotension (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.75-1.18). Effects did not differ by baseline standing hypotension (P = .16 for interaction of treatment with baseline standing hypotension). Conclusions and Relevance: In this population of hypertension trial participants, intensive therapy reduced risk of CVD or all-cause mortality regardless of orthostatic hypotension without evidence for different effects among those with standing hypotension.

11ß-HSD1 inhibition in men mitigates prednisolone-induced adverse effects in a proof-of-concept randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial.

Glucocorticoids prescribed to limit inflammation, have significant adverse effects. As 11ß-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 (11ß-HSD1) regenerates active glucocorticoid, we investigated whether 11ß-HSD1 inhibition with AZD4017 could mitigate adverse glucocorticoid effects without compromising their anti-inflammatory actions. We conducted a proof-of-concept, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study at Research Unit, Churchill Hospital, Oxford, UK (NCT03111810). 32 healthy male volunteers were randomized to AZD4017 or placebo, alongside prednisolone treatment. Although the primary endpoint of the study (change in glucose disposal during a two-step hyperinsulinemic, normoglycemic clamp) wasn't met, hepatic insulin sensitivity worsened in the placebo-treated but not in the AZD4017-treated group. Protective effects of AZD4017 on markers of lipid metabolism and bone turnover were observed. Night-time blood pressure was higher in the placebo-treated but not in the AZD4017-treated group. Urinary (5aTHF+THF)/THE ratio was lower in the AZD4017-treated but remained the same in the placebo-treated group. Most anti-inflammatory actions of prednisolone persisted with AZD4017 co-treatment. Four adverse events were reported with AZD4017 and no serious adverse events. Here we show that co-administration of AZD4017 with prednisolone in men is a potential strategy to limit adverse glucocorticoid effects.

Joint longitudinal and time-to-event modelling compared with standard Cox modelling in patients with type 2 diabetes with and without established cardiovascular disease: An analysis of the EXSCEL trial.

AIM: To demonstrate the gain in predictive performance when cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction tools (RPTs) incorporate repeated rather than only single measurements of risk factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data from the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) trial to compare the quality of predictions of future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) with the Cox proportional hazards model (using single values of risk factors) compared to the Bayesian joint model (using repeated measures of risk factors). The risk of MACE was calculated in patients with type 2 diabetes with and without established CVD. We assessed the predictive ability of the following cardiovascular risk factors: glycated haemoglobin, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), non-HDL-C, triglycerides, estimated glomerular filtration rate, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) using the time-dependent area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (aROC) for discrimination and the time-dependent Brier score for calibration. RESULTS: In participants without history of CVD, the aROC of SBP increased from 0.62 to 0.69 when repeated rather than only single measurements of SBP were incorporated into the predictive model. Similarly, the aROC increased from 0.67 to 0.80 when repeated rather than only single measurements of both SBP and LDL-C were incorporated into the predictive model. For all other investigated cardiovascular risk factors, the measures of discrimination and calibration both improved when using the joint model as compared to the Cox proportional hazards model. The improvement was evident in participants with and without history of CVD but was more pronounced in the latter group. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis demonstrates that the joint modelling approach, considering trajectories of cardiovascular risk factors, provides superior predictive performance compared to standard RPTs that use only a single timepoint.

Risk prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes in Chinese people with intermediate hyperglycemia: a systematic literature review and external validation study.

BACKGROUND: People with intermediate hyperglycemia (IH), including impaired fasting glucose and/or impaired glucose tolerance, are at higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) than those with normoglycemia. We aimed to evaluate the performance of published T2D risk prediction models in Chinese people with IH to inform them about the choice of primary diabetes prevention measures. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted to identify Asian-derived T2D risk prediction models, which were eligible if they were built on a prospective cohort of Asian adults without diabetes at baseline and utilized routinely-available variables to predict future risk of T2D. These Asian-derived and five prespecified non-Asian derived T2D risk prediction models were divided into BASIC (clinical variables only) and EXTENDED (plus laboratory variables) versions, with validation performed on them in three prospective Chinese IH cohorts: ACE (n = 3241), Luzhou (n = 1333), and TCLSIH (n = 1702). Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test). RESULTS: Forty-four Asian and five non-Asian studies comprising 21 BASIC and 46 EXTENDED T2D risk prediction models for validation were identified. The majority were at high (n = 43, 87.8%) or unclear (n = 3, 6.1%) risk of bias, while only three studies (6.1%) were scored at low risk of bias. BASIC models showed poor-to-moderate discrimination with C-statistics 0.52-0.60, 0.50-0.59, and 0.50-0.64 in the ACE, Luzhou, and TCLSIH cohorts respectively. EXTENDED models showed poor-to-acceptable discrimination with C-statistics 0.54-0.73, 0.52-0.67, and 0.59-0.78 respectively. Fifteen BASIC and 40 EXTENDED models showed poor calibration (P < 0.05), overpredicting or underestimating the observed diabetes risk. Most recalibrated models showed improved calibration but modestly-to-severely overestimated diabetes risk in the three cohorts. The NAVIGATOR model showed the best discrimination in the three cohorts but had poor calibration (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In Chinese people with IH, previously published BASIC models to predict T2D did not exhibit good discrimination or calibration. Several EXTENDED models performed better, but a robust Chinese T2D risk prediction tool in people with IH remains a major unmet need.

Historical HbA1c Values May Explain the Type 2 Diabetes Legacy Effect: UKPDS 88.

OBJECTIVE: Type 2 diabetes all-cause mortality (ACM) and myocardial infarction (MI) glycemic legacy effects have not been explained. We examined their relationships with prior individual HbA1c values and explored the potential impact of instituting earlier, compared with delayed, glucose-lowering therapy. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Twenty-year ACM and MI hazard functions were estimated from diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in 3,802 UK Prospective Diabetes Study participants. Impact of HbA1c values over time was analyzed by weighting them according to their influence on downstream ACM and MI risks. RESULTS: Hazard ratios for a one percentage unit higher HbA1c for ACM were 1.08 (95% CI 1.07-1.09), 1.18 (1.15-1.21), and 1.36 (1.30-1.42) at 5, 10, and 20 years, respectively, and for MI was 1.13 (1.11-1.15) at 5 years, increasing to 1.31 (1.25-1.36) at 20 years. Imposing a one percentage unit lower HbA1c from diagnosis generated an 18.8% (95% CI 21.1-16.0) ACM risk reduction 10-15 years later, whereas delaying this reduction until 10 years after diagnosis showed a sevenfold lower 2.7% (3.1-2.3) risk reduction. Corresponding MI risk reductions were 19.7% (22.4-16.5) when lowering HbA1c at diagnosis, and threefold lower 6.5% (7.4-5.3%) when imposed 10 years later. CONCLUSIONS: The glycemic legacy effects seen in type 2 diabetes are explained largely by historical HbA1c values having a greater impact than recent values on clinical outcomes. Early detection of diabetes and intensive glucose control from the time of diagnosis is essential to maximize reduction of the long-term risk of glycemic complications.

Increased Risk of Incident Heart Failure and Death Is Associated With Insulin Resistance in People With Newly Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes: UKPDS 89.

OBJECTIVE: Insulin resistance (IR) may mediate heart failure (HF) development. We examined whether IR in people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) increased their risk of a composite outcome of HF or death or of HF alone. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR) values for UKPDS participants were derived from paired fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and insulin measures. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and multivariable survival models were used to evaluate associations between HOMA2-IR and HF/death or HF alone. We adjusted for potential confounders by including variables with univariate associations (P < 0.1) and by requiring a multivariable P < 0.05. RESULTS: Of 5,102 UKPDS participants with newly diagnosed T2D, 4,344 had HOMA2-IR measurements. At enrollment, mean (SD) age was 52.5 (8.7) years, with HbA1c 7.2% (1.8%), and BMI 28.8 (5.5) kg/m2, and median (interquartile range) HOMA2-IR was 1.6 (1.1-2.2). HF/death occurred in 1,974 (45.4%) participants (235 first HF events, 1,739 deaths) over a median follow-up of 16.4 years. Multivariable independent associations with HF/death were older age and higher BMI, HOMA2-IR, FPG, waist-to-hip ratio, systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, and heart rate as well as sex, race, smoking status, prior atrial fibrillation, and prior microalbuminuria. A doubling of HOMA2-IR was associated with a 5% greater risk of HF/death (relative risk [RR] 1.05 [95% CI 1.01-1.12], P = 0.0029) and a 14% greater risk of HF (RR 1.14, [95% CI 1.02-1.27], P = 0.017). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with newly diagnosed T2D and insulin resistance were more likely to develop HF or die than those more sensitive to insulin.

Predicting the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in Chinese people who have coronary heart disease and impaired glucose tolerance.

AIMS: Robust diabetes risk estimates in Asian patients with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and coronary heart disease (CHD) are lacking. We developed a Chinese type 2 diabetes risk calculator using Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation (ACE) trial data. METHODS: There were 3105 placebo-treated ACE participants with requisite data for model development. Clinically relevant variables, and those showing nominal univariate association with new-onset diabetes (P < .10), were entered into BASIC (clinical variables only), EXTENDED (clinical variables plus routinely available laboratory results), and FULL (all candidate variables) logistic regression models. External validation was performed using the Luzhou prospective cohort of 1088 Chinese patients with IGT. RESULTS: Over median 5.0 years, 493 (15.9%) ACE participants developed diabetes. Lower age, higher body mass index, and use of corticosteroids or thiazide diuretics were associated with higher diabetes risk. C-statistics for the BASIC (using these variables), EXTENDED (adding male sex, fasting plasma glucose, 2-hour glucose, and HbA1c), and FULL models were 0.610, 0.757, and 0.761 respectively. The EXTENDED model predicted a lower 13.9% 5-year diabetes risk in the Luzhou cohort than observed (35.2%, 95% confidence interval 31.3%-39.5%, C-statistic 0.643). CONCLUSION: A risk prediction model using routinely available clinical variables can be used to estimate diabetes risk in Chinese people with CHD and IGT.

Refeeding risks in patients requiring intravenous nutrition support: Results of a two-centre, prospective, double-blind, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Refeeding syndrome can result following excessive feeding of malnourished patients. The syndrome remains poorly defined but encompasses a range of adverse effects including electrolyte shifts, hyperglycaemia and other less well-defined phenomena. There are additional risks of underfeeding malnourished individuals. Studies of refeeding syndrome have generally focussed on critical care environments or patients with anorexia nervosa. Here we have conducted a two-centre, prospective, double-blind, randomised controlled trial amongst all patients referred to hospital nutrition support teams for intravenous nutrition support. We sought to determine whether electrolyte and other abnormalities suggestive of refeeding syndrome risk varied depending on initial rate of intravenous feeding. METHODS: Patients at moderate or high risk of refeeding syndrome, as defined by United Kingdom National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guidelines, were screened for inclusion. Patients were randomised to receive either high (30 kcal/kg/day, 0.25 gN/kg/day) or low (15 kcal/day, 0.125 gN/kg/day) rate feeding for the first 48 h prior to escalation to standard parenteral nutrition regimens. The primary outcome was rates of potential refeeding risks within the first 7 days as defined by electrolyte imbalance or hyperglycaemia requiring insulin. Secondary outcomes included effects on QTc interval, infections and length of hospital stay. Statistical analysis was performed with χ2 or Wilcoxon rank sum tests and all analysis was intention-to-treat. Problems with study recruitment led to premature termination of the trial. Registered on the EU Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT number 2007-005547-17). RESULTS: 534 patients were screened and 104 randomised to either high or low rate feeding based on risk of refeeding syndrome. Seven patients were withdrawn prior to collection of baseline demographics and were excluded from analysis. 48 patients were analysed for the primary outcome with potential refeeding risks identified in 46%. No differences in risks were seen between high and low rate feeding (p > 0.99) or high and moderate risk feeding (p = 0.68). There were no differences in QTc abnormalities, infection rates, or hospital length of stay between groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this randomised trial of rates of refeeding risk, in patients pre-stratified as being at high or moderate risk, we found no evidence of increased refeeding related disturbances in those commenced on high rate feeding compared to low rate. No differences were seen in secondary endpoints including cardiac rhythm analysis, infections or length of stay. Our study reflects real world experience of patients referred for nutrition support and highlights challenges encountered when conducting clinical nutrition research.

Effects of Intensive Blood Pressure Treatment on Orthostatic Hypotension : A Systematic Review and Individual Participant-based Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although intensive blood pressure (BP)-lowering treatment reduces risk for cardiovascular disease, there are concerns that it might cause orthostatic hypotension (OH). PURPOSE: To examine the effects of intensive BP-lowering treatment on OH in hypertensive adults. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL from inception through 7 October 2019, without language restrictions. STUDY SELECTION: Randomized trials of BP pharmacologic treatment (more intensive BP goal or active agent) that involved more than 500 adults with hypertension or elevated BP and that were 6 months or longer in duration. Trial comparisons were groups assigned to either less intensive BP goals or placebo, and the outcome was measured OH, defined as a decrease of 20 mm Hg or more in systolic BP or 10 mm Hg or more in diastolic BP after changing position from seated to standing. DATA EXTRACTION: 2 investigators independently abstracted articles and rated risk of bias. DATA SYNTHESIS: 5 trials examined BP treatment goals, and 4 examined active agents versus placebo. Trials examining BP treatment goals included 18 466 participants with 127 882 follow-up visits. Trials were open-label, with minimal heterogeneity of effects across trials. Intensive BP treatment lowered risk for OH (odds ratio, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.86 to 0.99]). Effects did not differ by prerandomization OH (P for interaction = 0.80). In sensitivity analyses that included 4 additional placebo-controlled trials, overall and subgroup findings were unchanged. LIMITATIONS: Assessments of OH were done while participants were seated (not supine) and did not include the first minute after standing. Data on falls and syncope were not available. CONCLUSION: Intensive BP-lowering treatment decreases risk for OH. Orthostatic hypotension, before or in the setting of more intensive BP treatment, should not be viewed as a reason to avoid or de-escalate treatment for hypertension. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health. (PROSPERO: CRD42020153753).

Predicting heart failure events in patients with coronary heart disease and impaired glucose tolerance: Insights from the Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation (ACE) trial.

AIMS: Heart failure is a fatal complication of type 2 diabetes but little is known about its incidence in people with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). We used Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation (ACE) trial data to identify predictors of hospitalisation for heart failure (hHF) or cardiovascular (CV) death in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and IGT randomised to acarbose or placebo. METHODS: Independent hHF/CV death risk factors were determined using Cox proportional hazards models, with participants censored at first hHF event, CV death, or end of follow-up. RESULTS: During median 5-year follow-up, the composite outcome of hHF/CV death occurred in 393 (6.0%) participants. Significant hHF/CV death multivariate predictors were higher age and plasma creatinine, and prior heart failure (HF), myocardial infarction (MI), atrial fibrillation (AF) and stroke. Acarbose, compared with placebo, did not reduce hHF/CV death (hazard ratio [HR] 0.89, 95% CI 0.64-1.24, P = 0.48) or hHF (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.74-1.10, P = 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with CHD and IGT at greater risk of hHF/CV death were older with higher plasma creatinine, prior HF, MI, AF or stroke. Addition of acarbose to optimised CV therapy to reduce post-prandial glucose excursions did not reduce the risk of hHF/CV death or hHF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00829660, and the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number registry, number ISRCTN91899513.

Risk of Anemia With Metformin Use in Type 2 Diabetes: A MASTERMIND Study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between metformin use and anemia risk in type 2 diabetes, and the time-course for this, in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) and real-world population data. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Anemia was defined as a hemoglobin measure of <11 g/dL. In the RCTs A Diabetes Outcome Progression Trial (ADOPT; n = 3,967) and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS; n = 1,473), logistic regression was used to model anemia risk and nonlinear mixed models for change in hematological parameters. In the observational Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS) population (n = 3,485), discrete-time failure analysis was used to model the effect of cumulative metformin exposure on anemia risk. RESULTS: In ADOPT, compared with sulfonylureas, the odds ratio (OR) (95% CI) for anemia was 1.93 (1.10, 3.38) for metformin and 4.18 (2.50, 7.00) for thiazolidinediones. In UKPDS, compared with diet, the OR (95% CI) was 3.40 (1.98, 5.83) for metformin, 0.96 (0.57, 1.62) for sulfonylureas, and 1.08 (0.62, 1.87) for insulin. In ADOPT, hemoglobin and hematocrit dropped after metformin initiation by 6 months, with no further decrease after 3 years. In UKPDS, hemoglobin fell by 3 years in the metformin group compared with other treatments. At years 6 and 9, hemoglobin was reduced in all treatment groups, with no greater difference seen in the metformin group. In GoDARTS, each 1 g/day of metformin use was associated with a 2% higher annual risk of anemia. CONCLUSIONS: Metformin use is associated with early risk of anemia in individuals with type 2 diabetes, a finding consistent across two RCTs and replicated in one real-world study. The mechanism for this early fall in hemoglobin is uncertain, but given the time course, is unlikely to be due to vitamin B12 deficiency alone.

Predicting post one-year durability of glucose-lowering monotherapies in patients with newly-diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus - A MASTERMIND precision medicine approach (UKPDS 87).

AIMS: Predicting likely durability of glucose-lowering therapies for people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) could help inform individualised therapeutic choices. METHODS: We used data from UKPDS patients with newly-diagnosed T2D randomised to first-line glucose-lowering monotherapy with chlorpropamide-glibenclamide-basal insulin or metformin. In 2339 participants who achieved one-year HbA1c values <7.5% (<59 mmol/mol)-we assessed relationships between one-year characteristics and time to monotherapy-failure (HbA1c ≥ 7.5% or requiring second-line therapy). Model validation was performed using bootstrap sampling. RESULTS: Follow-up was median (IQR) 11.0 (8.0-14.0) years. Monotherapy-failure occurred in 72%-82%-75% and 79% for those randomised to chlorpropamide-glibenclamide-basal insulin or metformin respectively-after median 4.5 (3.0-6.6)-3.7 (2.6-5.6)-4.2 (2.7-6.5) and 3.8 (2.6- 5.2) years. Time-to-monotherapy-failure was predicted primarily by HbA1c and BMI values-with other risk factors varying by type of monotherapy-with predictions to within ±2.5 years for 55%-60%-56% and 57% of the chlorpropamide-glibenclamide-basal insulin and metformin monotherapy cohorts respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Post one-year glycaemic durability can be predicted robustly in individuals with newly-diagnosed T2D who achieve HbA1c values < 7.5% one year after commencing traditional monotherapies. Such information could be used to help guide glycaemic management for individual patients.

Impact of Acarbose on Incident Diabetes and Regression to Normoglycemia in People With Coronary Heart Disease and Impaired Glucose Tolerance: Insights From the ACE Trial.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the impact of acarbose, an α-glucosidase inhibitor, on incident diabetes and regression to normoglycemia in 6,522 Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation (ACE) trial participants in China who had impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and coronary heart disease (CHD). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Participants were randomly assigned to acarbose or placebo and followed with four monthly fasting plasma glucose (FPG) tests and annual oral glucose tolerance tests. Incident diabetes was defined as two successive diagnostic FPG levels ≥7 mmol/L or 2-h plasma glucose (PG) levels ≥11.1 mmol/L while taking study medication or a masked adjudicated confirmation of this diagnosis. Regression to normoglycemia was defined as FPG <6.1 mmol/L and 2-h PG <7.8 mmol/L. Intention-to-treat and on-treatment analyses were conducted using Poisson regression models, overall and for subgroups (age, sex, CHD type, HbA1c, FPG, 2-h PG, BMI, estimated glomerular filtration rate, for IGT alone, for IGT + impaired fasting glucose, and for use of thiazides, ACE inhibitors [ACEis]/angiotensin receptor blockers [ARBs], ß-blockers, calcium channel blockers, or statins). RESULTS: Incident diabetes was less frequent with acarbose compared with placebo (3.2 and 3.8 per 100 person-years, respectively; rate ratio 0.82 [95% CI 0.71, 0.94], P = 0.005), with no evidence of differential effects within the predefined subgroups after accounting for multiple testing. Regression to normoglycemia occurred more frequently in those randomized to acarbose compared with placebo (16.3 and 14.1 per 100 person-years, respectively; 1.16 [1.08, 1.25], P < 0.0001). This effect was greater in participants not taking an ACEi or ARB (1.36 [1.21, 1.53], P interaction = 0.0006). The likelihood of remaining in normoglycemic regression did not differ between the acarbose and placebo groups (P = 0.41). CONCLUSIONS: Acarbose reduced the incidence of diabetes and promoted regression to normoglycemia in Chinese people with IGT and CHD.

Can the cardiovascular risk reductions observed with empagliflozin in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial be explained by concomitant changes seen in conventional cardiovascular risk factor levels?

AIM: To perform post-hoc analyses of the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial examining the degree to which empagliflozin-induced changes in conventional cardiovascular (CV) risk factors might explain the observed CV benefits. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We estimated 3-year EMPA-REG OUTCOME CV event rates using a type 2 diabetes-specific clinical outcomes simulation model applied to annual patient-level data. Variables included were atrial fibrillation, smoking, albuminuria, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, glycated haemoglobin, heart rate, white cell count, haemoglobin, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and histories of ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, amputation, blindness, renal failure, stroke, myocardial infarction or diabetic ulcer. Multiple simulations were performed for each participant to minimize uncertainty and optimize confidence interval precision around CV risk point estimates. Observed and simulated cardiovascular relative risk reductions were compared. RESULTS: Model-predicted relative risk reductions were smaller than those observed in the trial, with empagliflozin-associated changes in conventional CV risk factor values appearing to explain only 12% of the observed relative risk reduction for all-cause death (4% of 32%), 7% for CV death (3% of 39%) and 15% for heart failure (4% of 29%). CONCLUSIONS: Empagliflozin-associated changes in conventional CV risk factors in EMPA-REG OUTCOME appear to explain only a small proportion of the CV and all-cause death reductions observed. Alternative risk-reduction mechanisms need to be explored to determine if the observed CV risk changes can be explained by other factors, or possibly by a direct drug-specific effect.

Time-varying risk of microvascular complications in latent autoimmune diabetes of adulthood compared with type 2 diabetes in adults: a post-hoc analysis of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study 30-year follow-up data (UKPDS 86).

BACKGROUND: Latent autoimmune diabetes of adulthood (LADA) differs in clinical features from type 2 diabetes. Whether this difference translates into different risks of complications remains controversial. We examined the long-term risk of microvascular complications in people enrolled in the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS), according to their diabetes autoimmunity status. METHODS: We did a post-hoc analysis of 30-year follow-up data from UKPDS (UKPDS 86). UKPDS participants with diabetes autoantibody measurements available and without previous microvascular events were included. Participants with at least one detectable autoantibody were identified as having latent autoimmune diabetes, and those who tested negative for all autoantibodies were identified as having type 2 diabetes. The incidence of the primary composite microvascular outcome (first occurrence of renal failure, renal death, blindness, vitreous haemorrhage, or retinal photocoagulation) was compared between adults with latent autoimmune diabetes and those with type 2 diabetes. The follow-up ended on Sept 30, 2007. Baseline and updated 9-year mean values of potential confounders were tested in Cox models to adjust hazard ratios (HRs). UKPDS is registered at the ISRCTN registry, 75451837. FINDINGS: Among the 5028 participants included, 564 had latent autoimmune diabetes and 4464 had type 2 diabetes. After median 17·3 years (IQR 12·6-20·7) of follow-up, the composite microvascular outcome occurred in 1041 (21%) participants. The incidence for the composite microvascular outcome was 15·8 (95% CI 13·4-18·7) per 1000 person-years in latent autoimmune diabetes and 14·2 (13·3-15·2) per 1000 person-years in type 2 diabetes. Adults with latent autoimmune diabetes had a lower risk of the composite outcome during the first 9 years of follow-up than those with type 2 diabetes (adjusted HR 0·45 [95% CI 0·30-0·68], p<0·0001), whereas in subsequent years their risk was higher than for those with type 2 diabetes (1·25 [1·01-1·54], p=0·047). Correcting for the higher updated 9-year mean HbA1c seen in adults with latent autoimmune diabetes than in those with type 2 diabetes explained entirely their subsequent increased risk for the composite microvascular outcome (adjusted HR 0·99 [95% CI 0·80-1·23], p=0·93). INTERPRETATION: At diabetes onset, adults with latent autoimmune diabetes have a lower risk of microvascular complications followed by a later higher risk of complications than do adults with type 2 diabetes, secondary to worse glycaemic control. Implementing strict glycaemic control from the time of diagnosis could reduce the later risk of microvascular complications in adults with latent autoimmune diabetes. FUNDING: European Foundation for the Study of Diabetes Mentorship Programme (AstraZeneca).

Meta-analysis of the impact of alpha-glucosidase inhibitors on incident diabetes and cardiovascular outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors (AGIs) have been shown to reduce incident type 2 diabetes but their impact on cardiovascular (CV) disease remains controversial. We sought to identify the overall impact of AGIs with respect to incident type 2 diabetes in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and CV outcomes in those with IGT or type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We used PubMed and SCOPUS to identify randomized controlled trials reporting the incidence of type 2 diabetes and/or CV outcomes that had compared AGIs with placebo in populations with IGT or type 2 diabetes, with or without established CV disease. Eligible studies were required to have ≥ 500 participants and/or ≥ 100 endpoints of interest. Meta-analyses of available trial data were performed using random effects models to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident type 2 diabetes and CV outcomes. RESULTS: Of ten trials identified, three met our inclusion criteria for incident type 2 diabetes and four were eligible for CV outcomes. The overall HR (95% CI) comparing AGI with placebo for incident type 2 diabetes was 0.77 (0.67-0.88), p < 0.0001, and for CV outcomes was 0.98 (0.89-1.10), p = 0.85. There was little to no heterogeneity between studies, with I2 values of 0.03% (p = 0.43) and 0% (p = 0.79) for the two outcomes respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Allocation of people with IGT to an AGI significantly reduced their risk of incident type 2 diabetes by 23%, whereas in those with IGT or type 2 diabetes the impact on CV outcomes was neutral.

Long-term risk of cardiovascular disease in individuals with latent autoimmune diabetes in adults (UKPDS 85).

AIMS: Latent autoimmune diabetes in adults (LADA) is diagnosed in up to 12% of adults with clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D). LADA tends to have healthier cardiovascular (CV) risk profiles than T2D, but it remains uncertain whether the risk of CV events differs between the two. We examined the risk of CV events in patients enrolled in the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) according to LADA status. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Diabetes autoantibodies (AAb) were measured in 5062 UKPDS participants. The incidence of major adverse CV events (MACE), defined as CV death, non-fatal myocardial infarction or non-fatal stroke, was compared in those with LADA (≥1 AAb test positive) and those without LADA (AAb negative). RESULTS: There were 567 participants (11.2%) with LADA. Compared with participants with T2D, they were younger, with higher mean HbA1c and HDL-cholesterol values, and with lower body mass index and total cholesterol and systolic blood pressure values (all P < 0.01). After a median (25th, 75th percentile) 17.3 (12.6-20.7) years of follow-up, MACE occurred in 157 (17.4 per 1000 person-years) participants with LADA and in 1544 (23.5 per 1000 person-years) participants with T2D (HR, 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62-0.86; P < 0.001). However, after adjustment for confounders, this difference was no longer significant (HRadj , 0.90; 95% CI, 0.76-1.07; P = 0.22). CONCLUSIONS: In adults thought to have newly diagnosed T2D, the long-term risk of MACE was lower in those with LADA. However, this did not differ after adjustment for traditional CV risk factors, suggesting that measurement of AAb in addition to traditional CV risk factors will not aid in stratification of CV risk in clinically diagnosed T2D.