Associations between toxicity-weighted concentrations and dementia risk: Results from the Cardiovascular Health Cognition Study.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is a modifiable risk factor for dementia. Yet, studies on specific sources of air pollution (i.e., toxic chemical emissions from industrial facilities) and dementia risk are scarce. We examined associations between toxicity-weighted concentrations of industrial pollution and dementia outcomes among a large, multi-site cohort of older adults. METHODS: Participants (n = 2770) were ≥ 65 years old (Mean = 75.3, SD = 5.1 years) from the Cardiovascular Health Cognition Study (1992-1999). Toxicity-weighted concentrations were estimated using the Risk Screening Environmental Indicator (RSEI) model which incorporates total reported chemical emissions with toxicity, fate, and transport models. Estimates were aggregated to participants' baseline census tract, averaged across 1988-1992, and log2-transformed. Dementia status was clinically adjudicated in 1998-1999 and categorized by subtype (Alzheimer's, vascular, mixed). We assessed whether RSEI-estimated toxicity-weighted concentrations were associated with 1) odds of prevalent dementia and 2) incident dementia risk by subtype. RESULTS: After adjusting for individual and census-tract level covariates, a doubling in toxicity-weighted concentrations was associated with 9 % higher odds of prevalent dementia (OR = 1.09, 95 % CI: 1.00, 1.19). In discrete-time survival models, each doubling in toxicity-weighted concentrations was associated with a 16 % greater hazard of vascular dementia (HR = 1.16, 95 % CI: 1.01, 1.34) but was not significantly associated with all-cause, Alzheimer's disease, or mixed dementia (p's > 0.05). DISCUSSION: Living in regions with higher toxicity-weighted concentrations was associated with higher odds of prevalent dementia and a higher risk of incident vascular dementia in this large, community-based cohort of older adults. These findings support the need for additional studies to examine whether toxic chemical emissions from industrial and federal facilities may be a modifiable target for dementia prevention.

Developing a National-Scale Exposure Index for Combined Environmental Hazards and Social Stressors and Applications to the Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) Cohort.

Tools for assessing multiple exposures across several domains (e.g., physical, chemical, and social) are of growing importance in social and environmental epidemiology because of their value in uncovering disparities and their impact on health outcomes. Here we describe work done within the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO)-wide Cohort Study to build a combined exposure index. Our index considered both environmental hazards and social stressors simultaneously with national coverage for a 10-year period. Our goal was to build this index and demonstrate its utility for assessing differences in exposure for pregnancies enrolled in the ECHO-wide Cohort Study. Our unitless combined exposure index, which collapses census-tract level data into a single relative measure of exposure ranging from 0-1 (where higher values indicate higher exposure to hazards), includes indicators for major air pollutants and air toxics, features of the built environment, traffic exposures, and social determinants of health (e.g., lower educational attainment) drawn from existing data sources. We observed temporal and geographic variations in index values, with exposures being highest among participants living in the West and Northeast regions. Pregnant people who identified as Black or Hispanic (of any race) were at higher risk of living in a "high" exposure census tract (defined as an index value above 0.5) relative to those who identified as White or non-Hispanic. Index values were also higher for pregnant people with lower educational attainment. Several recommendations follow from our work, including that environmental and social stressor datasets with higher spatial and temporal resolutions are needed to ensure index-based tools fully capture the total environmental context.

Associations between combined exposure to environmental hazards and social stressors at the neighborhood level and individual perinatal outcomes in the ECHO-wide cohort.

Limited studies examine how prenatal environmental and social exposures jointly impact perinatal health. Here we investigated relationships between a neighborhood-level combined exposure (CE) index assessed during pregnancy and perinatal outcomes, including birthweight, gestational age, and preterm birth. Across all participants, higher CE index scores were associated with small decreases in birthweight and gestational age. We also observed effect modification by race; infants born to Black pregnant people had a greater risk of preterm birth for higher CE values compared to White infants. Overall, our results suggest that neighborhood social and environmental exposures have a small but measurable joint effect on neonatal indicators of health.

Aggregated spatial intensity as a method for estimating point-level exposures within area-level units: The case of tobacco retailer exposure in census tracts.

BACKGROUND: Aggregating point-level events to area-level units can produce misleading interpretations when displayed via choropleth maps. We developed the aggregated intensity method to share point-level location information across unit boundaries prior to aggregation. This method was applied to tobacco retailers among census tracts in New Castle County, DE. METHODS: Aggregated intensity uses kernel density estimation to generate spatially continuous expected counts of events per unit area, then aggregates these results to area-level units. We calculated a relative difference measure to compare aggregated intensity to observed counts. RESULTS: Aggregated intensity produces estimates of event exposure unconstrained by boundaries. The relative difference between aggregated intensity and counts is greater for units with many events proximal to their borders. The appropriateness of aggregated intensity depends on events' spatial influence and proximity to unit boundaries, as well as computational inputs. CONCLUSIONS: Aggregated intensity may facilitate more spatially realistic estimates of exposure to point-level events.

Nested Spatial and Temporal Modeling of Environmental Conditions Associated With Genetic Markers of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Washington State Pacific Oysters.

The Pacific Northwest (PNW) is one of the largest commercial harvesting areas for Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas) in the United States. Vibrio parahaemolyticus, a bacterium naturally present in estuarine waters accumulates in shellfish and is a major cause of seafood-borne illness. Growers, consumers, and public-health officials have raised concerns about rising vibriosis cases in the region. Vibrio parahaemolyticus genetic markers (tlh, tdh, and trh) were estimated using an most-probable-number (MPN)-PCR technique in Washington State Pacific oysters regularly sampled between May and October from 2005 to 2019 (N = 2,836); environmental conditions were also measured at each sampling event. Multilevel mixed-effects regression models were used to assess relationships between environmental measures and genetic markers as well as genetic marker ratios (trh:tlh, tdh:tlh, and tdh:trh), accounting for variation across space and time. Spatial and temporal dependence were also accounted for in the model structure. Model fit improved when including environmental measures from previous weeks (1-week lag for air temperature, 3-week lag for salinity). Positive associations were found between tlh and surface water temp, specifically between 15 and 26°C, and between trh and surface water temperature up to 26°C. tlh and trh were negatively associated with 3-week lagged salinity in the most saline waters (> 27 ppt). There was also a positive relationship between tissue temperature and tdh, but only above 20°C. The tdh:tlh ratio displayed analogous inverted non-linear relationships as tlh. The non-linear associations found between the genetic targets and environmental measures demonstrate the complex habitat suitability of V. parahaemolyticus. Additional associations with both spatial and temporal variables also suggest there are influential unmeasured environmental conditions that could further explain bacterium variability. Overall, these findings confirm previous ecological risk factors for vibriosis in Washington State, while also identifying new associations between lagged temporal effects and pathogenic markers of V. parahaemolyticus.

Spatial analysis of tobacco outlet density on secondhand smoke exposure and asthma health among children in Baltimore City.

RATIONALE: Tobacco outlets are concentrated in low-income neighbourhoods; higher tobacco outlet density is associated with increased smoking prevalence. Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure has significant detrimental effects on childhood asthma. We hypothesised there was an association between higher tobacco outlet density, indoor air pollution and worse childhood asthma. METHODS: Baseline data from a home intervention study of 139 children (8-17 years) with asthma in Baltimore City included residential air nicotine monitoring, paired with serum cotinine and asthma control assessment. Participant addresses and tobacco outlets were geocoded and mapped. Multivariable regression modelling was used to describe the relationships between tobacco outlet density, SHS exposure and asthma control. RESULTS: Within a 500 m radius of each participant home, there were on average six tobacco outlets. Each additional tobacco outlet in a 500 m radius was associated with a 12% increase in air nicotine (p<0.01) and an 8% increase in serum cotinine (p=0.01). For every 10-fold increase in air nicotine levels, there was a 0.25-point increase in Asthma Therapy Assessment Questionnaire (ATAQ) score (p=0.01), and for every 10-fold increase in serum cotinine levels, there was a 0.54-point increase in ATAQ score (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Increased tobacco outlet density is associated with higher levels of bedroom air nicotine and serum cotinine. Increasing levels of SHS exposure (air nicotine and serum cotinine) are associated with less controlled childhood asthma. In Baltimore City, the health of children with asthma is adversely impacted in neighbourhoods where tobacco outlets are concentrated. The implications of our findings can inform community-level interventions to address these health disparities.

The Lyme and Tickborne Disease Dashboard: A map-based resource to promote public health awareness and research collaboration.

With the incidence of Lyme and other tickborne diseases on the rise in the US and globally, there is a critical need for data-driven tools that communicate the magnitude of this problem and help guide public health responses. We present the Johns Hopkins Lyme and Tickborne Disease Dashboard (https://www.hopkinslymetracker.org/), a new tool that harnesses the power of geography to raise awareness and fuel research and scientific collaboration. The dashboard is unique in applying a geographic lens to tickborne diseases, aiming not only to become a global tracker of tickborne diseases but also to contextualize their complicated geography with a comprehensive set of maps and spatial data sets representing a One Health approach. We share our experience designing and implementing the dashboard, describe the main features, and discuss current limitations and future directions.

A syndromic surveillance tool to detect anomalous clusters of COVID-19 symptoms in the United States.

Coronavirus SARS-COV-2 infections continue to spread across the world, yet effective large-scale disease detection and prediction remain limited. COVID Control: A Johns Hopkins University Study, is a novel syndromic surveillance approach, which collects body temperature and COVID-like illness (CLI) symptoms across the US using a smartphone app and applies spatio-temporal clustering techniques and cross-correlation analysis to create maps of abnormal symptomatology incidence that are made publicly available. The results of the cross-correlation analysis identify optimal temporal lags between symptoms and a range of COVID-19 outcomes, with new taste/smell loss showing the highest correlations. We also identified temporal clusters of change in taste/smell entries and confirmed COVID-19 incidence in Baltimore City and County. Further, we utilized an extended simulated dataset to showcase our analytics in Maryland. The resulting clusters can serve as indicators of emerging COVID-19 outbreaks, and support syndromic surveillance as an early warning system for disease prevention and control.

A case-control analysis of traceback investigations for Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections (vibriosis) and pre-harvest environmental conditions in Washington State, 2013-2018.

BACKGROUND: Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a major cause of seafood-borne illness. It is naturally prevalent in brackish waters and accumulates in shellfish. Vibriosis cases are rising globally, likely due to rising temperatures. OBJECTIVES: To identify associations between vibriosis in Washington State and pre-harvest environmental and V. parahaemolyticus genetic measurements sampled from shellfish. METHODS: Successful vibriosis traceback investigations were spatiotemporally matched to routine intertidal oyster (Crassostrea gigas) sampling events, which included measurements of temperature, salinity, and V. parahaemolyticus genetic targets (thermolabile hemolysin: tlh; thermostable direct hemolysin: tdh; thermostable direct-related hemolysin: trh). Unmatched sampling events were treated as controls. Associations were evaluated using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Systematic differences were observed across Washington harvesting zones. These included positive associations between the odds of vibriosis and all three genetic targets in South Puget Sound, with a large odds ratio (OR) = 13.0 (95% CI: 1.5, 115.0) for a 1-log10 increase in tdh when total bacterium abundance was low (tlh < 1 log10 MPN/g). A positive association also occurred for a 1 °C increase in tissue temperature OR = 1.20 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.30) while a negative association occurred for a similar increase in water temperature OR = 0.70 (95% CI: 0.59, 0.81). In contrast, the coastal bays displayed positive associations for water temperature OR = 2.16 (95% CI, 1.15, 4.05), and for a 1-log10 increase in the tdh:trh ratio OR = 5.85 (95% CI, 1.06, 32.26). DISCUSSION: The zonal variation in associations indicates unique pathogenic strain prominence, suggesting tdh+/trh+ strains in South Puget Sound, such as the O4:K12 serotype, and tdh+/trh- strains in the coastal bays. The temperature discrepancy between water and oyster tissue suggests that South Puget Sound pathogenic strains flourish with exposure to relatively warm air during low tide. These findings identify new ecological risk factors for vibriosis in Washington State that can be used in future prevention efforts.

Impact of Reductions in Emissions from Major Source Sectors on Fine Particulate Matter-Related Cardiovascular Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Reductions in ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) have contributed to reductions in cardiovascular (CV) mortality. OBJECTIVES: We examined changes in CV mortality attributed to reductions in emissions from mobile, point, areal, and nonroad sources through changes in concentrations of PM2.5 and its major components [nitrates, sulfates, elemental carbon (EC), and organic carbon (OC)] in 2,132 U.S. counties between 1990 and 2010. METHODS: Using Community Multiscale Air Quality model estimated PM2.5 total and component concentrations, we calculated population-weighted annual averages for each county. We estimated PM2.5 total- and component-related CV mortality, adjusted for county-level population characteristics and baseline PM2.5 concentrations. Using the index of Emission Mitigation Efficiency for primary emission-to-particle pathways, we expressed changes in particle-related mortality in terms of precursor emissions by each sector. RESULTS: PM2.5 reductions represented 5.7% of the overall decline in CV mortality. Large point source emissions of sulfur dioxide accounted for 6.685 [95% confidence interval (CI): 5.703, 7.667] fewer sulfate-related CV deaths per 100,000 people. Mobile source emissions of primary EC and nitrous oxides accounted for 3.396 (95% CI: 2.772, 4.020) and 3.984 (95% CI: 2.472, 5.496) fewer CV deaths per 100,000 people respectively. Increased EC and OC emissions from areal sources increased carbon-related CV mortality by 0.788 (95% CI: -0.540, 2.116) and 0.245 (95% CI: -0.697, 1.187) CV deaths per 100,000 people. DISCUSSION: In a nationwide epidemiological study of emission sector contribution to PM2.5-related mortality, we found that reductions in sulfur-dioxide emissions from large point sources and nitrates and EC emissions from mobile sources contributed the largest reduction in particle-related mortality rates respectively. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5692.

Fine particulate matters: The impact of air quality standards on cardiovascular mortality.

BACKGROUND: In 1997 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency set the first annual National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Although the weight of scientific evidence has determined that a causal relationship exists between PM2.5 exposures and cardiovascular effects, few studies have concluded whether NAAQS-related reductions in PM2.5 led to improvements in public health. METHODS: We examined the change in cardiovascular (CV) mortality rate and the association between change in PM2.5 and change in CV-mortality rate before (2000-2004) and after implementation of the 1997 annual PM2.5 NAAQS (2005-2010) among U.S. counties. We further examined how the association varied with respect to two factors related to NAAQS compliance: attainment status and design values (DV). We used difference-in-differences and linear regression models, adjusted for sociodemographic confounders. FINDINGS: Across 619 counties, there were 1.10 (95% CI: 0.37, 1.82) fewer CV-deaths per year per 100,000 people for each 1µg/m3 decrease in PM2.5. Nonattainment counties had a twofold larger reduction in mean annual PM2.5, 2.1µg/m3, compared to attainment counties, 0.97µg/m3. CV-mortality rate decreased by 0.59 (95% CI: -0.54, 1.71) in nonattainment and 1.96 (95% CI: 0.77, 3.15) deaths per 100,000 people for each 1µg/m3 decrease in PM2.5 in attainment counties. When stratifying counties by DV, results were similar: counties with DV greater than 15µg/m3 experienced the greatest decrease in mean annual PM2.5 (2.29µg/m3) but the smallest decrease in CV-mortality rate per unit decrease in PM2.5, 0.73 (95% CI: -0.57, 2.02). INTERPRETATION: We report a significant association between the change in PM2.5 and the change in CV-mortality rate before and after the implementation of NAAQS and note that the health benefits per 1µg/m3 decrease in PM2.5 persist at levels below the current national standard. FUNDING: US EPA intermural research.