Climate trends and maize production nexus in Mississippi: empirical evidence from ARDL modelling.

Climate change poses a significant threat to agriculture. However, climatic trends and their impact on Mississippi (MS) maize (Zea mays L.) are unknown. The objectives were to: (i) analyze trends in climatic variables (1970 to 2020) using Mann-Kendall and Sen slope method, (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on maize yield in short and long run using the auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) model, and (iii) categorize the critical months for maize-climate link using Pearson's correlation matrix. The climatic variables considered were maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), diurnal temperature range (DTR), precipitation (PT), relative humidity (RH), and carbon emissions (CO2). The pre-analysis, post-analysis, and model robustness statistical tests were verified, and all conditions were met. A significant upward trend in Tmax (0.13 °C/decade), Tmin (0.27 °C/decade), and CO2 (5.1 units/decade), and a downward trend in DTR ( - 0.15 °C/decade) were noted. The PT and RH insignificantly increased by 4.32 mm and 0.11% per decade, respectively. The ARDL model explained 76.6% of the total variations in maize yield. Notably, the maize yield had a negative correlation with Tmax for June, and July, with PT in August, and with DTR for June, July, and August, whereas a positive correlation was noted with Tmin in June, July, and August. Overall, a unit change in Tmax reduced the maize yield by 7.39% and 26.33%, and a unit change in PT reduced it by 0.65% and 2.69% in the short and long run, respectively. However, a unit change in Tmin, and CO2 emissions increased maize yield by 20.68% and 0.63% in the long run with no short run effect. Overall, it is imperative to reassess the agronomic management strategies, developing and testing cultivars adaptable to the revealed climatic trend, with ability to withstand severe weather conditions in ensuring sustainable maize production.

Climate trends and soybean production since 1970 in Mississippi: Empirical evidence from ARDL model.

Studying historical response of crops to weather conditions at a finer scale is essential for devising agricultural strategies tailored to expected climate changes. However, determining the relationship between crop and climate in Mississippi (MS) remains elusive. Therefore, this research attempted to i) estimate climate trends between 1970 and 2020 in MS during the soybean growing season (SGS) using the Mann-Kendall and Sen slope method, ii) calculate the impact of climate change on soybean yield using an auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) econometric model, and iii) identify the most critical months from a crop-climate perspective by generating a correlation between the detrended yield and the monthly average for each climatic variable. Specific variables considered were maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), diurnal temperature range (DTR), precipitation (PT), carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), and relative humidity (RH). All required diagnostic-tests i.e., pre-analysis, post-analysis, model-sensitivity, and assessing the models' goodness-of-fit were performed and statistical standards were met. A positive trend in Tmin (+0.25 °C/decade), and a negative trend in DTR (-0.18 °C/decade) was found. Although Tmax, PT, and RH showed non-significant trends, numerical changes were noted as +0.11 °C/decade, +3.03 mm/decade, and -0.06 %/decade, respectively. Furthermore, soybean yield was positively correlated with Tmin (in June and September), PT (in July and August), and RH (in July), but negatively correlated with Tmax (in July and August) and DTR (in June, July, and August). Soybean yield was observed to be significantly reduced by 18.11 % over the long-term and by 5.51 % over the short-term for every 1 °C increase in Tmax. With every unit increase in Tmin and CO2 emissions, the yield of soybeans increased significantly by 7.76 % and 3.04 %, respectively. Altogether, soybeans in MS exhibited variable sensitivity to short- and long-terms climatic changes. The results highlight the importance of testing climate-resilient agronomic practices and cultivars that encompass asymmetric sensitivities in response to climatic conditions of MS.

Investigating the role of organic carbon amendments and microbial denitrification gene abundance in nitrogen removal from experimental agricultural drainage ditches with low-grade weirs.

Low-grade weirs placed within agricultural drainage ditches in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley can be used as a management practice to enhance nitrogen removal. The addition of organic carbon amendments within ditches that contain weirs could further increase nitrogen removal. Through repeated trials, changes in NO 3 - -N concentration between inflow and outflow were variable in the ditch without weirs, while only decreases in concentration were observed in ditches with weirs. Significant differences in NO 3 - -N concentrations were observed between treatments, with greater removal of NO 3 - -N observed in dissolved organic carbon treatments compared to control and particulate organic carbon treatments. At medium- and high-flow rates, respectively, dissolved organic carbon treatments resulted in greater NO 3 - -N concentration decreases of 31.6% and 27.1% compared to 19% and 11.6% in particulate organic carbon treatments and 18.6% and 17.2% in control treatments. Significant effects of weirs and sampling date on nirS, nirK, nosZ, and 16S rRNA gene abundances were observed. Observed increases in NO 3 - -N removal with organic carbon amendments, provides support for continued investigation on improving the efficacy of organic carbon amendments as a best management practice for NO 3 - -N removal in agricultural drainage ditches. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Dissolved organic carbon amendments increased nitrate-nitrogen removal. Only decreases in nitrate-nitrogen concentration were observed in ditches with weirs. Increasing flow rate did not affect nitrate-nitrogen removal. Abundance of denitrification-performing microbes likely did not affect N removal. Lack of anaerobic soil conditions and short residence time reduced nitrate-N removal.