The Thoracic Research Evaluation and Treatment 2.0 Model: A Lung Cancer Prediction Model for Indeterminate Nodules Referred for Specialist Evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Appropriate risk stratification of indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs) is necessary to direct diagnostic evaluation. Currently available models were developed in populations with lower cancer prevalence than that seen in thoracic surgery and pulmonology clinics and usually do not allow for missing data. We updated and expanded the Thoracic Research Evaluation and Treatment (TREAT) model into a more generalized, robust approach for lung cancer prediction in patients referred for specialty evaluation. RESEARCH QUESTION: Can clinic-level differences in nodule evaluation be incorporated to improve lung cancer prediction accuracy in patients seeking immediate specialty evaluation compared with currently available models? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Clinical and radiographic data on patients with IPNs from six sites (N = 1,401) were collected retrospectively and divided into groups by clinical setting: pulmonary nodule clinic (n = 374; cancer prevalence, 42%), outpatient thoracic surgery clinic (n = 553; cancer prevalence, 73%), or inpatient surgical resection (n = 474; cancer prevalence, 90%). A new prediction model was developed using a missing data-driven pattern submodel approach. Discrimination and calibration were estimated with cross-validation and were compared with the original TREAT, Mayo Clinic, Herder, and Brock models. Reclassification was assessed with bias-corrected clinical net reclassification index and reclassification plots. RESULTS: Two-thirds of patients had missing data; nodule growth and fluorodeoxyglucose-PET scan avidity were missing most frequently. The TREAT version 2.0 mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve across missingness patterns was 0.85 compared with that of the original TREAT (0.80), Herder (0.73), Mayo Clinic (0.72), and Brock (0.68) models with improved calibration. The bias-corrected clinical net reclassification index was 0.23. INTERPRETATION: The TREAT 2.0 model is more accurate and better calibrated for predicting lung cancer in high-risk IPNs than the Mayo, Herder, or Brock models. Nodule calculators such as TREAT 2.0 that account for varied lung cancer prevalence and that consider missing data may provide more accurate risk stratification for patients seeking evaluation at specialty nodule evaluation clinics.

Early Outcomes of Multivisceral Transplant Using Hepatitis C-Positive Donors.

BACKGROUND: In the era of direct-acting antiviral therapies, hepatitis C-positive organs offer a strategy to expand the donor pool. Heart failure patients with concomitant renal insufficiency benefit from combined heart/kidney transplant. In 2017, we began utilizing organs from hepatitis C donors for heart/kidney transplants. METHODS: Characteristics and outcomes of heart/kidney transplants were collected at our institution from 2012 through 2019. We determined patient cohorts by donor hepatitis C antibody status, antibody positive (HCV+) vs antibody negative (HCV-). Outcomes of interest include survival, postoperative allograft function, and waitlist time. Summary and descriptive statistics, as well as survival analyses, were performed. RESULTS: Thirty-nine patients underwent heart/kidney transplantation from 2012-2019. Twelve patients received HCV+ organs, and 27 patients received HCV- organs with minimal differences in donor and recipient cohort characteristics. Recipients who consented to receive HCV+ organs had a shorter median waitlist time. HCV+ and HCV- groups had similar perioperative and early postoperative cardiac function and similar rates of delayed renal graft function. HCV+ recipients demonstrated higher creatinine levels at 3 months posttransplant compared with HCV- recipients, but by 1-year post-transplant, creatinine levels in both groups were similar. The groups had similar 30-day and 1-year survival. CONCLUSIONS: This study is a single-center series of heart/kidney transplant using HCV+ donors. When the potential increased risk of early postoperative renal dysfunction is balanced against similar survival and decreased waitlist time, the results suggest that HCV+ donors are an important source of transplantable organs for heart/kidney transplantation.