Understanding the determinants of vaccine hesitancy in the United States: A comparison of social surveys and social media.

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted governments worldwide to implement a range of containment measures, including mass gathering restrictions, social distancing, and school closures. Despite these efforts, vaccines continue to be the safest and most effective means of combating such viruses. Yet, vaccine hesitancy persists, posing a significant public health concern, particularly with the emergence of new COVID-19 variants. To effectively address this issue, timely data is crucial for understanding the various factors contributing to vaccine hesitancy. While previous research has largely relied on traditional surveys for this information, recent sources of data, such as social media, have gained attention. However, the potential of social media data as a reliable proxy for information on population hesitancy, especially when compared with survey data, remains underexplored. This paper aims to bridge this gap. Our approach uses social, demographic, and economic data to predict vaccine hesitancy levels in the ten most populous US metropolitan areas. We employ machine learning algorithms to compare a set of baseline models that contain only these variables with models that incorporate survey data and social media data separately. Our results show that XGBoost algorithm consistently outperforms Random Forest and Linear Regression, with marginal differences between Random Forest and XGBoost. This was especially the case with models that incorporate survey or social media data, thus highlighting the promise of the latter data as a complementary information source. Results also reveal variations in influential variables across the five hesitancy classes, such as age, ethnicity, occupation, and political inclination. Further, the application of models to different MSAs yields mixed results, emphasizing the uniqueness of communities and the need for complementary data approaches. In summary, this study underscores social media data's potential for understanding vaccine hesitancy, emphasizes the importance of tailoring interventions to specific communities, and suggests the value of combining different data sources.

Evaluating the incentive for soil organic carbon sequestration from carinata production in the Southeast United States.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) can be increased by cultivating bioenergy crops to produce low-carbon fuels, improving soil quality and agricultural productivity. This study evaluates the incentives for farmers to sequester SOC by adopting a bioenergy crop, carinata. Two agricultural management scenarios - business as usual (BaU) and a climate-smart (no-till) practice - were simulated using an agent-based modeling approach to account for farmers' carinata adoption rates within their context of traditional crop rotations, the associated profitability, influences of neighboring farmers, as well as their individual attitudes. Using the state of Georgia, US, as a case study, the results show that farmers allocated 1056 × 103 acres (23.8%; 2.47 acres is equivalent to 1 ha) of farmlands by 2050 at a contract price of $6.5 per bushel of carinata seeds and with an incentive of $50 Mg-1CO2e SOC sequestered under the BaU scenario. In contrast, at the same contract price and SOC incentive rate, farmers allocated 1152 × 103 acres (25.9%) of land under the no-till scenario, while the SOC sequestration was 483.83 × 103 Mg CO2e, which is nearly four times the amount under the BaU scenario. Thus, this study demonstrated combinations of seed prices and SOC incentives that encourage farmers to adopt carinata with climate-smart practices to attain higher SOC sequestration benefits.

A comparison between online social media discussions and vaccination rates: A tale of four vaccines.

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has brought the debate around vaccinations to the forefront of public discussion. In this discussion, various social media platforms have a key role. While this has long been recognized, the way by which the public assigns attention to such topics remains largely unknown. Furthermore, the question of whether there is a discrepancy between people's opinions as expressed online and their actual decision to vaccinate remains open. To shed light on this issue, in this paper we examine the dynamics of online debates among four prominent vaccines (i.e., COVID-19, Influenza, MMR, and HPV) through the lens of public attention as captured on Twitter in the United States from 2015 to 2021. We then compare this to actual vaccination rates from governmental reports, which we argue serve as a proxy for real-world vaccination behaviors. Our results demonstrate that since the outbreak of COVID-19, it has come to dominate the vaccination discussion, which has led to a redistribution of attention from the other three vaccination themes. The results also show an apparent discrepancy between the online debates and the actual vaccination rates. These findings are in line with existing theories, that of agenda-setting and zero-sum theory. Furthermore, our approach could be extended to assess the public's attention toward other health-related issues, and provide a basis for quantifying the effectiveness of health promotion policies.

Urban life: a model of people and places.

We introduce the Urban Life agent-based simulation used by the Ground Truth program to capture the innate needs of a human-like population and explore how such needs shape social constructs such as friendship and wealth. Urban Life is a spatially explicit model to explore how urban form impacts agents' daily patterns of life. By meeting up at places agents form social networks, which in turn affect the places the agents visit. In our model, location and co-location affect all levels of decision making as agents prefer to visit nearby places. Co-location is necessary (but not sufficient) to connect agents in the social network. The Urban Life model was used in the Ground Truth program as a virtual world testbed to produce data in a setting in which the underlying ground truth was explicitly known. Data was provided to research teams to test and validate Human Domain research methods to an extent previously impossible. This paper summarizes our Urban Life model's design and simulation along with a description of how it was used to test the ability of Human Domain research teams to predict future states and to prescribe changes to the simulation to achieve desired outcomes in our simulated world.

Information propagation on cyber, relational and physical spaces about covid-19 vaccine: Using social media and splatial framework.

With the advent of social media, human dynamics studied in purely physical space have been extended to that of a cyber and relational context. However, connections and interactions between these hybrid spaces have not been sufficiently investigated. The "space-place (Splatial)" framework proposed in recent years allows capturing human activities in the hybrid of spaces. This study applies the Splatial framework to examine the information propagation between cyber, relational, and physical spaces through a case study of Covid-19 vaccine debates in New York State (NYS). Whereby the physical space represents the regional boundaries and locations of social media (i.e., Twitter) users in NYS, the relational space indicates the social networks of these NYS users, and the cyber space captures the larger conversational context of the vaccination debate. Our results suggest that the Covid-19 vaccine debate is not polarized across all three spaces as compared to that of other vaccines. However, the rate of users with a pro-vaccine stance decreases from physical to relational and cyber spaces. We also found that while users from different spaces interact with each other, they also engage in local communications with users from the same region or same space, and distance-based and boundary-confined clusters exist in cyber and relational space communities. These results based on the Splatial framework not only shed light on the vaccination debates but also help to define and elucidate the relationships between the three spaces. The intense interactions between spaces suggest incorporating people's relational network and cyber presence in physical place-making.

Analyzing the vaccination debate in social media data Pre- and Post-COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 virus has caused and continues to cause unprecedented impacts on the life trajectories of millions of people globally. Recently, to combat the transmission of the virus, vaccination campaigns around the world have become prevalent. However, while many see such campaigns as positive (e.g., protecting lives), others see them as negative (e.g., the side effects that are not fully understood scientifically), resulting in diverse sentiments towards vaccination campaigns. In addition, the diverse sentiments have seldom been systematically quantified let alone their dynamic changes over space and time. To shed light on this issue, we propose an approach to analyze vaccine sentiments in space and time by using supervised machine learning combined with word embedding techniques. Taking the United States as a test case, we utilize a Twitter dataset (approximately 11.7 million tweets) from January 2015 to July 2021 and measure and map vaccine sentiments (Pro-vaccine, Anti-vaccine, and Neutral) across the nation. In doing so, we can capture the heterogeneous public opinions within social media discussions regarding vaccination among states. Results show how positive sentiment in social media has a strong correlation with the actual vaccinated population. Furthermore, we introduce a simple ratio between Anti and Pro-vaccine as a proxy to quantify vaccine hesitancy and show how our results align with other traditional survey approaches. The proposed approach illustrates the potential to monitor the dynamics of vaccine opinion distribution online, which we hope, can be helpful to explain vaccination rates for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Unraveling the complexity of human behavior and urbanization on community vulnerability to floods.

Floods are among the costliest natural hazards and their consequences are expected to increase further in the future due to urbanization in flood-prone areas. It is essential that policymakers understand the factors governing the dynamics of urbanization to adopt proper disaster risk reduction techniques. Peoples' relocation preferences and their perception of flood risk (collectively called human behavior) are among the most important factors that influence urbanization in flood-prone areas. Current studies focusing on flood risk assessment do not consider the effect of human behavior on urbanization and how it may change the nature of the risk. Moreover, flood mitigation policies are implemented without considering the role of human behavior and how the community will cope with measures such as buyout, land acquisition, and relocation that are often adopted to minimize development in flood-prone regions. Therefore, such policies may either be resisted by the community or result in severe socioeconomic consequences. In this study, we present a new Agent-Based Model (ABM) to investigate the complex interaction between human behavior and urbanization and its role in creating future communities vulnerable to flood events. We identify critical factors in the decisions of households to locate or relocate and adopt policies compatible with human behavior. The results show that when people are informed about the flood risk and proper incentives are provided, the demand for housing within 500-year floodplain may be reduced as much as 15% by 2040 for the case study considered. On the contrary, if people are not informed of the risk, 29% of the housing choices will reside in floodplains. The analyses also demonstrate that neighborhood quality-influenced by accessibility to highways, education facilities, the city center, water bodies, and green spaces, respectively-is the most influential factor in peoples' decisions on where to locate. These results provide new insights that may be used to assist city planners and stakeholders in examining tradeoffs between costs and benefits of future land development in achieving sustainable and resilient cities.

Future Developments in Geographical Agent-Based Models: Challenges and Opportunities.

Despite reaching a point of acceptance as a research tool across the geographical and social sciences, there remain significant methodological challenges for agent-based models. These include recognizing and simulating emergent phenomena, agent representation, construction of behavioral rules, and calibration and validation. While advances in individual-level data and computing power have opened up new research avenues, they have also brought with them a new set of challenges. This article reviews some of the challenges that the field has faced, the opportunities available to advance the state-of-the-art, and the outlook for the field over the next decade. We argue that although agent-based models continue to have enormous promise as a means of developing dynamic spatial simulations, the field needs to fully embrace the potential offered by approaches from machine learning to allow us to fully broaden and deepen our understanding of geographical systems.

Insights into elections: An ensemble bot detection coverage framework applied to the 2018 U.S. midterm elections.

The participation of automated software agents known as social bots within online social network (OSN) engagements continues to grow at an immense pace. Choruses of concern speculate as to the impact social bots have within online communications as evidence shows that an increasing number of individuals are turning to OSNs as a primary source for information. This automated interaction proliferation within OSNs has led to the emergence of social bot detection efforts to better understand the extent and behavior of social bots. While rapidly evolving and continually improving, current social bot detection efforts are quite varied in their design and performance characteristics. Therefore, social bot research efforts that rely upon only a single bot detection source will produce very limited results. Our study expands beyond the limitation of current social bot detection research by introducing an ensemble bot detection coverage framework that harnesses the power of multiple detection sources to detect a wider variety of bots within a given OSN corpus of Twitter data. To test this framework, we focused on identifying social bot activity within OSN interactions taking place on Twitter related to the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election by using three available bot detection sources. This approach clearly showed that minimal overlap existed between the bot accounts detected within the same tweet corpus. Our findings suggest that social bot research efforts must incorporate multiple detection sources to account for the variety of social bots operating in OSNs, while incorporating improved or new detection methods to keep pace with the constant evolution of bot complexity.

News coverage, digital activism, and geographical saliency: A case study of refugee camps and volunteered geographical information.

The last several decades have witnessed a shift in the way in which news is delivered and consumed by users. With the growth and advancements in mobile technologies, the Internet, and Web 2.0 technologies users are not only consumers of news, but also producers of online content. This has resulted in a novel and highly participatory cyber-physical news awareness ecosystem that fosters digital activism, in which volunteers contribute content to online communities. While studies have examined the various components of this news awareness ecosystem, little is still known about how news media coverage (and in particular digital media) impacts digital activism. In order to address this challenge and develop a greater understanding of it, this paper focuses on a specific form of digital activism, that of the production of digital geographical content through crowdsourcing efforts. Using refugee camps from around the world as a case study, we examine the relationship between news coverage (via Google news), search trends (via Google trends) and user edit contribution patterns in OpenStreetMap, a prominent geospatial data crowdsourcing platform. In addition, we compare and contrast these patterns with user edit patterns in Wikipedia, a well-known non-geospatial crowdsourcing platform. Using Google news and Google trends to derive a measure of thematic public awareness, our findings indicate that digital activism bursts tend to take place during periods of sustained build-up of public awareness deficit or surplus. These findings are in line with two prominent mass communication theories: agenda setting and corrective action, and suggest the emergence of a novel stimulus-awareness-activism framework in today's participatory digital age. Moreover, these findings further complement existing research examining the motivational factors that drive users to contribute to online collaborative communities. This paper brings us one step closer to understanding the underlying mechanisms that drive digital activism in particular in the geospatial domain.

Cancer and Social Media: A Comparison of Traffic about Breast Cancer, Prostate Cancer, and Other Reproductive Cancers on Twitter and Instagram.

Social media are often heralded as offering cancer campaigns new opportunities to reach the public. However, these campaigns may not be equally successful, depending on the nature of the campaign itself, the type of cancer being addressed, and the social media platform being examined. This study is the first to compare social media activity on Twitter and Instagram across three time periods: #WorldCancerDay in February, the annual month-long campaigns of National Breast Cancer Awareness Month (NBCAM) in October and Movember in November, and during the full year outside of these campaigns. Our results suggest that women's reproductive cancers - especially breast cancer - tend to outperform men's reproductive cancer - especially prostate cancer - across campaigns and social media platforms. Twitter overall generates substantially more activity than Instagram for both cancer campaigns, suggesting Instagram may be an untapped resource. However, the messaging for both campaigns tends to focus on awareness and support rather than on concrete actions and behaviors. We suggest health communication efforts need to focus on effective messaging and building engaged communities for cancer communication across social media platforms.

Zika in Twitter: Temporal Variations of Locations, Actors, and Concepts.

BACKGROUND: The recent Zika outbreak witnessed the disease evolving from a regional health concern to a global epidemic. During this process, different communities across the globe became involved in Twitter, discussing the disease and key issues associated with it. This paper presents a study of this discussion in Twitter, at the nexus of location, actors, and concepts. OBJECTIVE: Our objective in this study was to demonstrate the significance of 3 types of events: location related, actor related, and concept related, for understanding how a public health emergency of international concern plays out in social media, and Twitter in particular. Accordingly, the study contributes to research efforts toward gaining insights on the mechanisms that drive participation, contributions, and interaction in this social media platform during a disease outbreak. METHODS: We collected 6,249,626 tweets referring to the Zika outbreak over a period of 12 weeks early in the outbreak (December 2015 through March 2016). We analyzed this data corpus in terms of its geographical footprint, the actors participating in the discourse, and emerging concepts associated with the issue. Data were visualized and evaluated with spatiotemporal and network analysis tools to capture the evolution of interest on the topic and to reveal connections between locations, actors, and concepts in the form of interaction networks. RESULTS: The spatiotemporal analysis of Twitter contributions reflects the spread of interest in Zika from its original hotspot in South America to North America and then across the globe. The Centers for Disease Control and World Health Organization had a prominent presence in social media discussions. Tweets about pregnancy and abortion increased as more information about this emerging infectious disease was presented to the public and public figures became involved in this. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study show the utility of analyzing temporal variations in the analytic triad of locations, actors, and concepts. This contributes to advancing our understanding of social media discourse during a public health emergency of international concern.

The Measles Vaccination Narrative in Twitter: A Quantitative Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of social media is providing an alternative avenue for information exchange and opinion formation on health-related issues. Collective discourse in such media leads to the formation of a complex narrative, conveying public views and perceptions. OBJECTIVE: This paper presents a study of Twitter narrative regarding vaccination in the aftermath of the 2015 measles outbreak, both in terms of its cyber and physical characteristics. We aimed to contribute to the analysis of the data, as well as presenting a quantitative interdisciplinary approach to analyze such open-source data in the context of health narratives. METHODS: We collected 669,136 tweets referring to vaccination from February 1 to March 9, 2015. These tweets were analyzed to identify key terms, connections among such terms, retweet patterns, the structure of the narrative, and connections to the geographical space. RESULTS: The data analysis captures the anatomy of the themes and relations that make up the discussion about vaccination in Twitter. The results highlight the higher impact of stories contributed by news organizations compared to direct tweets by health organizations in communicating health-related information. They also capture the structure of the antivaccination narrative and its terms of reference. Analysis also revealed the relationship between community engagement in Twitter and state policies regarding child vaccination. Residents of Vermont and Oregon, the two states with the highest rates of non-medical exemption from school-entry vaccines nationwide, are leading the social media discussion in terms of participation. CONCLUSIONS: The interdisciplinary study of health-related debates in social media across the cyber-physical debate nexus leads to a greater understanding of public concerns, views, and responses to health-related issues. Further coalescing such capabilities shows promise towards advancing health communication, thus supporting the design of more effective strategies that take into account the complex and evolving public views of health issues.

Crowdsourcing a Collective Sense of Place.

Place can be generally defined as a location that has been assigned meaning through human experience, and as such it is of multidisciplinary scientific interest. Up to this point place has been studied primarily within the context of social sciences as a theoretical construct. The availability of large amounts of user-generated content, e.g. in the form of social media feeds or Wikipedia contributions, allows us for the first time to computationally analyze and quantify the shared meaning of place. By aggregating references to human activities within urban spaces we can observe the emergence of unique themes that characterize different locations, thus identifying places through their discernible sociocultural signatures. In this paper we present results from a novel quantitative approach to derive such sociocultural signatures from Twitter contributions and also from corresponding Wikipedia entries. By contrasting the two we show how particular thematic characteristics of places (referred to herein as platial themes) are emerging from such crowd-contributed content, allowing us to observe the meaning that the general public, either individually or collectively, is assigning to specific locations. Our approach leverages probabilistic topic modelling, semantic association, and spatial clustering to find locations are conveying a collective sense of place. Deriving and quantifying such meaning allows us to observe how people transform a location to a place and shape its characteristics.

Lessons from the Ebola Outbreak: Action Items for Emerging Infectious Disease Preparedness and Response.

As the Ebola outbreak in West Africa wanes, it is time for the international scientific community to reflect on how to improve the detection of and coordinated response to future epidemics. Our interdisciplinary team identified key lessons learned from the Ebola outbreak that can be clustered into three areas: environmental conditions related to early warning systems, host characteristics related to public health, and agent issues that can be addressed through the laboratory sciences. In particular, we need to increase zoonotic surveillance activities, implement more effective ecological health interventions, expand prediction modeling, support medical and public health systems in order to improve local and international responses to epidemics, improve risk communication, better understand the role of social media in outbreak awareness and response, produce better diagnostic tools, create better therapeutic medications, and design better vaccines. This list highlights research priorities and policy actions the global community can take now to be better prepared for future emerging infectious disease outbreaks that threaten global public health and security.