Demographic but not competitive time lags can transiently amplify climate-induced changes in vegetation carbon storage.

How terrestrial ecosystems will accumulate carbon as the climate continues to change is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Under growth-stimulating environmental change, time lags inherent in population and community dynamic processes have been posed to dampen, or alternatively amplify, short-term carbon gain in terrestrial vegetation, but these outcomes can be difficult to predict. To theoretically frame this problem, we developed a simple model of vegetation dynamics that identifies the stage-structured demographic and competitive processes that could govern the timescales of carbon storage and loss. We show that demographic lags associated with growth-stimulating environmental change can allow a rapid increase in population-level carbon storage that is lost back to the atmosphere in later years. However, this transient carbon storage only emerges when environmental change increases the transition of adult individuals into a larger size class that suffers markedly higher mortality. Otherwise, demographic lags simply slow carbon accumulation. Counterintuitively, an analogous tradeoff between maximum adult size and survivorship in two-species models, coupled with environmental change-driven replacement, does not generate the transient carbon gain seen in the single-species models. Instead lags in competitive replacement slow the approach to the eventual carbon trajectory. Together, our results suggest that time lags inherent in demographic and compositional turnover tend to slow carbon accumulation in systems responding to growth-stimulating environmental change. Only under specific conditions will lagged demographic processes in such systems drive transient carbon accumulation, conditions that investigators can examine in nature to help project future carbon trajectories.

Mapping safe drinking water use in low- and middle-income countries.

Safe drinking water access is a human right, but data on safely managed drinking water services (SMDWS) is lacking for more than half of the global population. We estimate SMDWS use in 135 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) at subnational levels with a geospatial modeling approach, combining existing household survey data with available global geospatial datasets. We estimate that only one in three people used SMDWS in LMICs in 2020 and identified fecal contamination as the primary limiting factor affecting almost half of the population of LMICs. Our results are relevant for raising awareness about the challenges and limitations of current global monitoring approaches and demonstrating how globally available geospatial data can be leveraged to fill data gaps and identify priority areas in LMICs.

Reading tea leaves worldwide: Decoupled drivers of initial litter decomposition mass-loss rate and stabilization.

The breakdown of plant material fuels soil functioning and biodiversity. Currently, process understanding of global decomposition patterns and the drivers of such patterns are hampered by the lack of coherent large-scale datasets. We buried 36,000 individual litterbags (tea bags) worldwide and found an overall negative correlation between initial mass-loss rates and stabilization factors of plant-derived carbon, using the Tea Bag Index (TBI). The stabilization factor quantifies the degree to which easy-to-degrade components accumulate during early-stage decomposition (e.g. by environmental limitations). However, agriculture and an interaction between moisture and temperature led to a decoupling between initial mass-loss rates and stabilization, notably in colder locations. Using TBI improved mass-loss estimates of natural litter compared to models that ignored stabilization. Ignoring the transformation of dead plant material to more recalcitrant substances during early-stage decomposition, and the environmental control of this transformation, could overestimate carbon losses during early decomposition in carbon cycle models.

Regional uniqueness of tree species composition and response to forest loss and climate change.

The conservation and restoration of forest ecosystems require detailed knowledge of the native plant compositions. Here, we map global forest tree composition and assess the impacts of historical forest cover loss and climate change on trees. The global occupancy of 10,590 tree species reveals complex taxonomic and phylogenetic gradients determining a local signature of tree lineage assembly. Species occupancy analyses indicate that historical forest loss has significantly restricted the potential suitable range of tree species in all forest biomes. Nevertheless, tropical moist and boreal forest biomes display the lowest level of range restriction and harbor extremely large ranged tree species, albeit with a stark contrast in richness and composition. Climate change simulations indicate that forest biomes are projected to differ in their response to climate change, with the highest predicted species loss in tropical dry and Mediterranean ecoregions. Our findings highlight the need for preserving the remaining large forest biomes while regenerating degraded forests in a way that provides resilience against climate change.

Positive feedbacks and alternative stable states in forest leaf types.

The emergence of alternative stable states in forest systems has significant implications for the functioning and structure of the terrestrial biosphere, yet empirical evidence remains scarce. Here, we combine global forest biodiversity observations and simulations to test for alternative stable states in the presence of evergreen and deciduous forest types. We reveal a bimodal distribution of forest leaf types across temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere that cannot be explained by the environment alone, suggesting signatures of alternative forest states. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate the existence of positive feedbacks in tree growth, recruitment and mortality, with trees having 4-43% higher growth rates, 14-17% higher survival rates and 4-7 times higher recruitment rates when they are surrounded by trees of their own leaf type. Simulations show that the observed positive feedbacks are necessary and sufficient to generate alternative forest states, which also lead to dependency on history (hysteresis) during ecosystem transition from evergreen to deciduous forests and vice versa. We identify hotspots of bistable forest types in evergreen-deciduous ecotones, which are likely driven by soil-related positive feedbacks. These findings are integral to predicting the distribution of forest biomes, and aid to our understanding of biodiversity, carbon turnover, and terrestrial climate feedbacks.

Treemendous: an R package for integrating taxonomic information across backbones.

Standardizing and translating species names from different databases is key to the successful integration of data sources in biodiversity research. There are numerous taxonomic name-resolution applications that implement increasingly powerful name-cleaning and matching approaches, allowing the user to resolve species relative to multiple backbones simultaneously. Yet there remains no principled approach for combining information across these underlying taxonomic backbones, complicating efforts to combine and merge species lists with inconsistent and conflicting taxonomic information. Here, we present Treemendous, an open-source software package for the R programming environment that integrates taxonomic relationships across four publicly available backbones to improve the name resolution of tree species. By mapping relationships across the backbones, this package can be used to resolve datasets with conflicting and inconsistent taxonomic origins, while ensuring the resulting species are accepted and consistent with a single reference backbone. The user can chain together different functionalities ranging from simple matching to a single backbone, to graph-based iterative matching using synonym-accepted relations across all backbones in the database. In addition, the package allows users to 'translate' one tree species list into another, streamlining the assimilation of new data into preexisting datasets or models. The package provides a flexible workflow depending on the use case, and can either be used as a stand-alone name-resolution package or in conjunction with existing packages as a final step in the name-resolution pipeline. The Treemendous package is fast and easy to use, allowing users to quickly merge different data sources by standardizing their species names according to the regularly updated database. By combining taxonomic information across multiple backbones, the package increases matching rates and minimizes data loss, allowing for more efficient translation of tree species datasets to aid research into forest biodiversity and tree ecology.

Ecological countermeasures to prevent pathogen spillover and subsequent pandemics.

Substantial global attention is focused on how to reduce the risk of future pandemics. Reducing this risk requires investment in prevention, preparedness, and response. Although preparedness and response have received significant focus, prevention, especially the prevention of zoonotic spillover, remains largely absent from global conversations. This oversight is due in part to the lack of a clear definition of prevention and lack of guidance on how to achieve it. To address this gap, we elucidate the mechanisms linking environmental change and zoonotic spillover using spillover of viruses from bats as a case study. We identify ecological interventions that can disrupt these spillover mechanisms and propose policy frameworks for their implementation. Recognizing that pandemics originate in ecological systems, we advocate for integrating ecological approaches alongside biomedical approaches in a comprehensive and balanced pandemic prevention strategy.

Accounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration.

Restoring tree cover changes albedo, which is the fraction of sunlight reflected from the Earth's surface. In most locations, these changes in albedo offset or even negate the carbon removal benefits with the latter leading to global warming. Previous efforts to quantify the global climate mitigation benefit of restoring tree cover have not accounted robustly for albedo given a lack of spatially explicit data. Here we produce maps that show that carbon-only estimates may be up to 81% too high. While dryland and boreal settings have especially severe albedo offsets, it is possible to find places that provide net-positive climate mitigation benefits in all biomes. We further find that on-the-ground projects are concentrated in these more climate-positive locations, but that the majority still face at least a 20% albedo offset. Thus, strategically deploying restoration of tree cover for maximum climate benefit requires accounting for albedo change and we provide the tools to do so.

Fungal community composition predicts forest carbon storage at a continental scale.

Forest soils harbor hyper-diverse microbial communities which fundamentally regulate carbon and nutrient cycling across the globe. Directly testing hypotheses on how microbiome diversity is linked to forest carbon storage has been difficult, due to a lack of paired data on microbiome diversity and in situ observations of forest carbon accumulation and storage. Here, we investigated the relationship between soil microbiomes and forest carbon across 238 forest inventory plots spanning 15 European countries. We show that the composition and diversity of fungal, but not bacterial, species is tightly coupled to both forest biotic conditions and a seven-fold variation in tree growth rates and biomass carbon stocks when controlling for the effects of dominant tree type, climate, and other environmental factors. This linkage is particularly strong for symbiotic endophytic and ectomycorrhizal fungi known to directly facilitate tree growth. Since tree growth rates in this system are closely and positively correlated with belowground soil carbon stocks, we conclude that fungal composition is a strong predictor of overall forest carbon storage across the European continent.

Mutualisms weaken the latitudinal diversity gradient among oceanic islands.

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) dominates global patterns of diversity1,2, but the factors that underlie the LDG remain elusive. Here we use a unique global dataset3 to show that vascular plants on oceanic islands exhibit a weakened LDG and explore potential mechanisms for this effect. Our results show that traditional physical drivers of island biogeography4-namely area and isolation-contribute to the difference between island and mainland diversity at a given latitude (that is, the island species deficit), as smaller and more distant islands experience reduced colonization. However, plant species with mutualists are underrepresented on islands, and we find that this plant mutualism filter explains more variation in the island species deficit than abiotic factors. In particular, plant species that require animal pollinators or microbial mutualists such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi contribute disproportionately to the island species deficit near the Equator, with contributions decreasing with distance from the Equator. Plant mutualist filters on species richness are particularly strong at low absolute latitudes where mainland richness is highest, weakening the LDG of oceanic islands. These results provide empirical evidence that mutualisms, habitat heterogeneity and dispersal are key to the maintenance of high tropical plant diversity and mediate the biogeographic patterns of plant diversity on Earth.

A stoichiometric approach to estimate sources of mineral-associated soil organic matter.

Mineral-associated soil organic matter (MAOM) is the largest, slowest cycling pool of carbon (C) in the terrestrial biosphere. MAOM is primarily derived from plant and microbial sources, yet the relative contributions of these two sources to MAOM remain unresolved. Resolving this issue is essential for managing and modeling soil carbon responses to environmental change. Microbial biomarkers, particularly amino sugars, are the primary method used to estimate microbial versus plant contributions to MAOM, despite systematic biases associated with these estimates. There is a clear need for independent lines of evidence to help determine the relative importance of plant versus microbial contributions to MAOM. Here, we synthesized 288 datasets of C/N ratios for MAOM, particulate organic matter (POM), and microbial biomass across the soils of forests, grasslands, and croplands. Microbial biomass is the source of microbial residues that form MAOM, whereas the POM pool is the direct precursor of plant residues that form MAOM. We then used a stoichiometric approach-based on two-pool, isotope-mixing models-to estimate the proportional contribution of plant residue (POM) versus microbial sources to the MAOM pool. Depending on the assumptions underlying our approach, microbial inputs accounted for between 34% and 47% of the MAOM pool, whereas plant residues contributed 53%-66%. Our results therefore challenge the existing hypothesis that microbial contributions are the dominant constituents of MAOM. We conclude that biogeochemical theory and models should account for multiple pathways of MAOM formation, and that multiple independent lines of evidence are required to resolve where and when plant versus microbial contributions are dominant in MAOM formation.

Fungal community dissimilarity predicts plant-soil feedback strength in a lowland tropical forest.

Soil microbes impact plant community structure and diversity through plant-soil feedbacks. However, linking the relative abundance of plant pathogens and mutualists to differential plant recruitment remains challenging. Here, we tested for microbial mediation of pairwise feedback using a reciprocal transplant experiment in a lowland tropical forest in Panama paired with amplicon sequencing of soil and roots. We found evidence that plant species identity alters the microbial community, and these changes in microbial composition alter subsequent growth and survival of conspecific plants. We also found that greater community dissimilarity between species in their arbuscular mycorrhizal and nonpathogenic fungi predicted increased positive feedback. Finally, we identified specific microbial taxa across our target functional groups that differentially accumulated under conspecific settings. Collectively, these findings clarify how soil pathogens and mutualists mediate net feedback effects on plant recruitment, with implications for management and restoration.

Fossil-fuel-dependent scenarios could lead to a significant decline of global plant-beneficial bacteria abundance in soils by 2100.

Exploiting the potential benefits of plant-associated microbes represents a sustainable approach to enhancing crop productivity. Plant-beneficial bacteria (PBB) provide multiple benefits to plants. However, the biogeography and community structure remain largely unknown. Here we constructed a PBB database to couple microbial taxonomy with their plant-beneficial traits and analysed the global atlas of potential PBB from 4,245 soil samples. We show that the diversity of PBB peaks in low-latitude regions, following a strong latitudinal diversity gradient. The distribution of potential PBB was primarily governed by environmental filtering, which was mainly determined by local climate. Our projections showed that fossil-fuel-dependent future scenarios would lead to a significant decline of potential PBB by 2100, especially biocontrol agents (-1.03%) and stress resistance bacteria (-0.61%), which may potentially threaten global food production and (agro)ecosystem services.

Root microbiota confers rice resistance to aluminium toxicity and phosphorus deficiency in acidic soils.

Aluminium (Al) toxicity impedes crop growth in acidic soils and is considered the second largest abiotic stress after drought for crops worldwide. Despite remarkable progress in understanding Al resistance in plants, it is still unknown whether and how the soil microbiota confers Al resistance to crops. Here we found that a synthetic community composed of highly Al-resistant bacterial strains isolated from the rice rhizosphere increased rice yield by 26.36% in acidic fields. The synthetic community harvested rhizodeposited carbon for successful proliferation and mitigated soil acidification and Al toxicity through extracellular protonation. The functional coordination between plants and microbes offers a promising way to increase the usage of legacy phosphorus in topsoil. These findings highlight the potential of microbial tools for advancing sustainable agriculture in acidic soils.

Global diversity and biogeography of potential phytopathogenic fungi in a changing world.

Phytopathogenic fungi threaten global food security but the ecological drivers of their global diversity and biogeography remain unknown. Here, we construct and analyse a global atlas of potential phytopathogenic fungi from 20,312 samples across all continents and major oceanic island regions, eleven land cover types, and twelve habitat types. We show a peak in the diversity of phytopathogenic fungi in mid-latitude regions, in contrast to the latitudinal diversity gradients observed in aboveground organisms. Our study identifies climate as an important driver of the global distribution of phytopathogenic fungi, and our models suggest that their diversity and invasion potential will increase globally by 2100. Importantly, phytopathogen diversity will increase largely in forest (37.27-79.12%) and cropland (34.93-82.51%) ecosystems, and this becomes more pronounced under fossil-fuelled industry dependent future scenarios. Thus, we recommend improved biomonitoring in forests and croplands, and optimised sustainable development approaches to reduce potential threats from phytopathogenic fungi.

The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit.

Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling.

Poleward shifts in the maximum of spring phenological responsiveness of Ginkgo biloba to temperature in China.

Global warming is advancing the timing of spring leaf-out in temperate and boreal plants, affecting biological interactions and global biogeochemical cycles. However, spatial variation in spring phenological responsiveness to climate change within species remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated variation in the responsiveness of spring phenology to temperature (RSP; days to leaf-out at a given temperature) in 2754 Ginkgo biloba twigs of trees distributed across subtropical and temperate regions in China from 24°N to 44°N. We found a nonlinear effect of mean annual temperature on spatial variation in RSP, with the highest response rate at c. 12°C and lower response rates at warmer or colder temperatures due to declines in winter chilling accumulation. We then predicted the spatial maxima in RSP under current and future climate scenarios, and found that trees are currently most responsive in central China, which corresponds to the species' main distribution area. Under a high-emission scenario, we predict a 4-degree latitude shift in the responsiveness maximum toward higher latitudes over the rest of the century. The identification of the nonlinear responsiveness of spring phenology to climate gradients and the spatial shifts in phenological responsiveness expected under climate change represent new mechanistic insights that can inform models of spring phenology and ecosystem functioning.