Impact of deforestation and climate on spatio-temporal spread of dengue fever in Mexico.

Dengue prevalence results from the interaction of multiple socio-environmental variables which influence its spread. This study investigates the impact of forest loss, precipitation, and temperature on dengue incidence in Mexico from 2010 to 2020 using a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model. Three temporal structures-AR1, RW1, and RW2-were compared, with RW2 showing superior performance. Findings indicate that a 1 % loss of municipal forest cover correlates with a 16.9 % increase in dengue risk. Temperature also significantly affects the vectors' ability to initiate and maintain outbreaks, highlighting the significant role of environmental factors. The research emphasizes the importance of multilevel modeling, finer temporal data resolution, and understanding deforestation causes to enhance the predictability and effectiveness of public health interventions. As dengue continues affecting global populations, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions, this study contributes insights, advocating for an integrated approach to health and environmental policy to mitigate the impact of vector-borne diseases.

Alteración de la fertilidad del suelo por el cambio climático y su efecto en la productividad agrícola / Soil fertility alteration due to the climate change and its effect on agricultural crop productivity

Los pronósticos de vulnerabilidad del rendimiento de cultivos en relación con los escenarios existentes del cambio climático durante el siglo XXI se realizan, generalmente, sin considerar la alteración de la fertilidad del suelo atribuible al cambio climático. El objetivo del presente trabajo fue estimar el papel de ese factor en el pronóstico del cambio en la productividad del maíz (C4) y trigo (C3) de temporal en varias zonas de referencia de México, utilizando los pronósticos desarrollados por el Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, para el escenario de duplicación del CO2 en la atmósfera, al final del siglo XXI. Para estimar la alteración de la fertilidad del suelo se estableció una relación cuantitativa entre el índice integral de fertilidad del suelo (F) para suelos con la misma génesis y un índice climático. Se pronosticaron cambios en las productividades real y potencial, en el índice F y en la disponibilidad hídrica para los cultivos. La alteración de la fertilidad del suelo puede causar cambio del rendimiento hasta en 20 por ciento, lo que índica su importancia en los pronósticos de rendimientos. Los resultados pronóstican incrementos en el rendimiento hasta de 463 kg.ha-¹ en las zonas aridas y semiáridas, y disminuciones hasta de 392 kg.ha-¹ en las zonas húmedas y semi-humedas, para el caso del maíz; y, en general, incrementos en la producción del trigo de hasta 1100 kg-ha-¹.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment for organic compounds: fuzzy multi-criteria approach for Mexico city.

This study was based on a groundwater vulnerability assessment approach implemented for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The approach is based on a fuzzy multi-criteria procedure integrated in a geographic information system. The approach combined the potential contaminant sources with the permeability of geological materials. Initially, contaminant sources were ranked by experts through the Analytic Hierarchy Process. An aggregated contaminant sources map layer was obtained through the simple additive weighting method, using a scalar multiplication of criteria weights and binary maps showing the location of each source. A permeability map layer was obtained through the reclassification of a geology map using the respective hydraulic conductivity values, followed by a linear normalization of these values against a compatible scale. A fuzzy logic procedure was then applied to transform and combine the two map layers, resulting in a groundwater vulnerability map layer of five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Results provided a more coherent assessment of the policy-making priorities considered when discussing the vulnerability of groundwater to organic compounds. The very high and high vulnerability areas covered a relatively small area (71 km(2) or 1.5% of the total study area), allowing the identification of the more critical locations. The advantage of a fuzzy logic procedure is that it enables the best possible use to be made of the information available regarding groundwater vulnerability in the MCMA.

Integrating fuzzy logic, optimization, and GIS for ecological impact assessments.

Appraisal of ecological impacts has been problematic because of the behavior of ecological system and the responses of these systems to human intervention are far from fully understood. While it has been relatively easy to itemize the potential ecological impacts, it has been difficult to arrive at accurate predictions of how these impacts affect populations, communities, or ecosystems. Furthermore, the spatial heterogeneity of ecological systems has been overlooked because its examination is practically impossible through matrix techniques, the most commonly used impact assessment approach. Besides, the public has become increasingly aware of the importance of the EIA in decision-making and thus the interpretation of impact significance is complicated further by the different value judgments of stakeholders. Moreover, impact assessments are carried out with a minimum of data, high uncertainty, and poor conceptual understanding. Hence, the evaluation of ecological impacts entails the integration of subjective and often conflicting judgments from a variety of experts and stakeholders. The purpose of this paper is to present an environmental impact assessment approach based on the integration fuzzy logic, geographical information systems and optimization techniques. This approach enables environmental analysts to deal with the intrinsic imprecision and ambiguity associated with the judgments of experts and stakeholders, the description of ecological systems, and the prediction of ecological impacts. The application of this approach is illustrated through an example, which shows how consensus about impact mitigation can be attained within a conflict resolution framework.