Hip fracture projections up to the year 2060: an analysis based on data from the National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are common and cause a huge socioeconomic burden to patients, their carers, and healthcare services worldwide. Our aim was to examine how much hip fracture numbers would be expected to rise over coming decades, simply as a consequence of the ageing of the population. METHODS: We used data from the National Hip Fracture Database on the volume of hip fractures occurring in England, Wales and Northern Ireland in the year 2019 (n = 67,210). We projected future numbers of hip fractures by applying this number, assuming stable rates, to population growth forecast data provided by the Office for National Statistics up to the year 2060. RESULTS: By 2060, the number of hip fractures occurring in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are projected to increase by 107 % (n = 139,105). In males, there was an estimated increase of 130 % compared with 97 % in females. There was an estimated increase across all age ranges, however the oldest age groups demonstrated the largest relative increases. The estimated increase for those aged 90 years or over was as high as 348 % and 198 % for males and females, respectively. CONCLUSION: As a consequence of future ageing of the population, the demand on the health service posed by people with hip fracture is projected to more than double by the year 2060. Policymakers should be striving to mitigate against the huge public health impact of these projections by maximising fracture prevention strategies as far as possible and by improving the quality of hip fracture care.

The feasibility of assessing frailty and sarcopenia in hospitalised older people: a comparison of commonly used tools.

BACKGROUND: Frailty and sarcopenia are common amongst hospitalised older people and associated with poor healthcare outcomes. Widely recognised tools for their identification are the Fried Frailty Phenotype, its self-report version the FRAIL Scale, and the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP) criteria. We studied the feasibility of using these tools in a hospital setting of acute wards for older people. METHODS: Patients aged 70+ years admitted to acute wards at one English hospital were prospectively recruited. The Fried Frailty Phenotype was assessed through measured grip strength, gait speed and questions on unintentional weight loss, exhaustion and physical activity. The 5-item self-reported FRAIL scale questionnaire covering the same domains was completed. Agreement between the two tools was reported using the Cohen kappa statistic. The EWGSOP criteria (gait speed, grip strength and muscle mass) were assessed by additional bedside measurement of muscle mass with bioelectrical impedance. RESULTS: Two hundred thirty three participants (median age 80 years, 60% men) were recruited. Most (221, 95%) had their grip strength measured: 4 (2%) were unable and data were missing for 8 (3%). Only 70 (30%) completed the gait speed assessment: 153 (66%) were unable with missing data on 10 (4%). 113 (49%) participants had the bioelectrical impedance assessment. Muscle mass measurement was not possible for 84 (36%) participants: 25 patients declined, 21 patients were unavailable, 22 results were technically invalid, and 16 had clinical contra-indications. Data on 36 (15%) were missing. Considering inability to complete grip strength or gait speed assessments as low values, data for the Fried Frailty Phenotype was available for 218 (94%) of participants; frailty was identified in 105 (48%). 230 (99%) patients completed the FRAIL scale; frailty was identified among 77 (34%). There was moderate agreement between the two frailty tools (Kappa value of 0.46, 95%CI: 0.34 to 0.58). Complete data for the EWGOSP criteria were only available for 124 (53%) patients of whom 40 (32%) had sarcopenia. CONCLUSION: It was feasible to measure grip strength and complete the FRAIL scale among older inpatients in hospital. Measuring gait speed and muscle mass to identify sarcopenia was challenging in the acute setting. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry (ID ISRCTN16391145 ) on 30.12.14.

ACL and meniscal injuries increase the risk of primary total knee replacement for osteoarthritis: a matched case-control study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate whether ACL injury (ACLi) or meniscal injury increases the risk of end-stage osteoarthritis (OA) resulting in total knee replacement (TKR). METHODS: A matched case-control study of all TKRs performed in the UK between January 1990 and July 2011 and recorded in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) was undertaken. The CPRD contains longitudinal data on approximately 3.6 million patients. Two controls were selected for each case of TKR, matched on age, sex and general practitioner location as a proxy for socioeconomic status. Individuals with inflammatory arthritis were excluded. The odds of having TKR for individuals with a CPRD-recorded ACLi were compared with those without ACLi using conditional logistic regression, after adjustment for body mass index, previous knee fracture and meniscal injury. The adjusted odds of TKR in individuals with a recorded meniscal injury compared with those without were calculated. RESULTS: After exclusion of individuals with inflammatory arthritis, there were 49 723 in the case group and 104 353 controls. 153 (0.31%) cases had a history of ACLi compared with 41 (0.04%) controls. The adjusted OR of TKR after ACLi was 6.96 (95% CI 4.73 to 10.31). 4217 (8.48%) individuals in the TKR group had a recorded meniscal injury compared with 669 (0.64%) controls. The adjusted OR of TKR after meniscal injury was 15.24 (95% CI 13.88 to 16.69). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that ACLi is associated with a sevenfold increased odds of TKR resulting from OA. Meniscal injury is associated with a 15-fold increase odds of TKR for OA.

Prognostic indicators of foot-related disability in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: results of a prospective three-year study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence and natural history of foot-related disability in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A secondary aim was to identify explanatory variables, including forefoot bursae, that are either associated with or predictive of disabling foot complications in patients with RA. METHODS: A longitudinal prospective cohort study recruited patients with RA from a rheumatology outpatient clinic. Data were collected at baseline (n = 149) and 1-year (n = 120) and 3-year followup (n = 60). Patient-reported disabling foot complications were evaluated using the subscales of the Foot Impairment Score (FIS): foot impairment/footwear restriction (FIS(IF)) and activity limitation/participation restriction (FIS(AP)). Explanatory variables investigated included ultrasound-detectable forefoot pathology and markers of disease activity. RESULTS: Disabling foot complications were highly prevalent on all occasions. Changes in foot impairment and activity limitation were significantly associated with fluctuations in disease activity (Disease Activity Score in 28 joints using the erythrocyte sedimentation rate [DAS28-ESR]: r = 0.455, P < 0.0001; ESR: r = -0.356, P = 0.008 and DAS28-ESR: r = 0.433, P = 0.001; ESR: r = -0.439, P = 0.001 for the FIS(IF) and FIS(AP), respectively), and approaching a significant association with changes in forefoot bursae (FIS(IF): r = 0.255, P = 0.063 and FIS(AP): r = 0.255, P = 0.063). The presence of disease duration and forefoot bursae was a significant prognostic indicator of foot impairment (P = 0.009 and P = 0.012, respectively), explaining 16% of score variability in the final regression model. Disease duration, forefoot bursae, and erosion presence were identified as significant prognostic indicators of activity limitation (P = 0.002, P = 0.006, and P = 0.019, respectively), explaining 35% of score variability in the final regression model. CONCLUSION: Despite advances in disease management, patients report disability associated with foot problems. Forefoot bursae should be considered for targeted therapy.

Distance from the growth plate and Its relation to the outcome of unicameral bone cyst treatment.

BACKGROUND: Interventions to treat unicameral bone cysts vary. Nonetheless, regardless of the intervention modality, the outcome is not certain. The purpose of this study was to determine if the distance between the growth plate and the cyst can be used to predict the outcome of the treatment. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Retrospectively, we assessed the outcome of 39 interventions in nineteen children that were performed between 1994 and 2003. Seventeen different modalities of treatment were employed. There were three female and sixteen male patients. The average age was 8 years. Nine cysts were in the greater trochanter area, three were in the femoral capital area and seven were in the proximal humerus. According to the cyst's distance from the growth plate, at the intervention time, there were 18 cases within less than 2 cm and 21 cases of more than 2 cm. RESULTS: Complete healing was achieved in 10 children (employing seven different modalities). In nine of them, the cysts were more than 2 cm away from the growth plate. In one child, the cyst was within less than 2 cm of the growth plate, however, treatment here involved epiphyseodesis. DISCUSSION: This study confirmed that, regardless of intervention modality, complete healing was not achievable in those cysts that are within less than 2 cm of an active growth plate. Complete healing was possible in those cysts that are more than 2 cm away from the growth plate. CONCLUSION: The 2-cm distance from the growth plate could be used as a predictor of treatment outcome of unicameral bone cysts.

Late reduction in congenital dislocation of the hip and the need for secondary surgery: radiologic predictors and confounding variables.

BACKGROUND: Despite early recognition and appropriate treatment of congenital dislocation of the hip, there are a number of cases that subsequently require further surgery to prevent progressive dysplasia, instability, and eventual early osteoarthritis. This study aimed (1) to determine the incidence of pelvic osteotomy (PO) after late open (OR) or closed (CR) reduction for failed initial conservative treatment or late presentation; (2) study potential radiologic predictors of those that will require a secondary procedure; (3) and to evaluate the effect of potential confounding variables including age of reduction, Pavlik harness treatment, and surgical experience on PO rate. METHODS: All cases of congenital dislocation of the hip that presented late or had failed conservative treatment with subsequent late OR versus CR, that were carried out during 1988 to 2003, by the lead surgeon were included. Dislocations secondary to neuromuscular causes or teratologic causes were excluded. Intraoperative arthrograms confirmed the concentric or eccentric reduction and determined subsequent intervention. The AP pelvis plain radiograph was used to measure the height of dislocation, as described by Tonnis, and monitor Acetabular index, and ossific nucleus width and height postreduction. RESULTS: After 134 OR's, 24 hips (19%, 95% CI: 16-23%) later required a pelvic osteotomy compared with 59 out of 104 hips (58%, 95% CI: 49-68%) in the CR cohort. There was no statistical difference in avascular necrosis rates between late OR (10.9%, 95% CI: 4.8-17%) and CR (11.4%, 95% CI: 5.8-17%). Acetabular index was a reliable predictor for the need of subsequent PO becoming significantly different in those that did (PO group) and did not (non-PO group) require further surgery approximately 1.5 years postreduction. There was no difference in the ON development after reduction in both PO and non-PO groups. The PO requirement was not affected by earlier failed Pavlik harness treatment but did change with ongoing surgical experience. Late OR produced the lowest secondary procedure rate without an increase in the incidence of avascular necrosis. There is a learning curve to this procedure that will affect these outcomes. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III (Case-control study).

Impact of disease activity on resting energy expenditure in children with inflammatory bowel disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Exclusive enteral nutrition is used as primary therapy in Crohn's disease. Nutrition support is frequently required in children with both Crohn's disease and Ulcerative Colitis when acutely unwell and during periods of recovery. There is considerable controversy about nutritional needs during phases of active and inactive disease. It is, for example, often assumed that in acute illness a child requires increased nutritional support however the precise relationship between illness severity and energy expenditure is uncertain. This study explores the relationship between disease activity and resting energy expenditure (REE) in children with inflammatory bowel disease. METHODS: Patients were recruited from the regional paediatric gastroenterology unit at Southampton University Hospitals NHS Trust. Disease activity was assessed using standard scoring systems (Paediatric Crohn's Disease Activity Index; Simple Colitis Activity Index) and biochemical markers of inflammation (C-Reactive Protein, CRP). Fat free mass was estimated from skinfold thickness and Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis. Resting energy expenditure was measured by indirect calorimetry. A logarithmic correction and a linear regression model were used for analysis of REE corrected for body size. RESULTS: 55 children were studied; 37 (67%) with Crohn's disease and 18 (33%) with Ulcerative Colitis. Median PCDAI was 10 (range 0-60), 22 (59%) had PCDAI > or =10 (active disease). Median SCAI was 1.5 (range 0-12). Within disease groups there were strong correlations between REE/KgFFM(0.52) and disease activity; PCDAI (r -0.386, p 0.018) in Crohn's disease and SCAI (r -0.456, p 0.057) in Ulcerative Colitis. In the cohort as a whole there was no increase in REE/KgFFM(0.52) with increasing CRP (r 0.129, p 0.361). Using the regression model each mg/l increase in CRP was associated with a reduction in REE of nearly 1.5 kCal/day. CONCLUSIONS: We were unable to demonstrate a significant relationship between REE and disease activity in children with inflammatory bowel disease.