The Multidimensional Prognostic Index predicts incident delirium among hospitalized older patients with COVID-19: a multicenter prospective European study.

PURPOSE: Incident delirium is a frequent complication among hospitalized older people with COVID-19, associated with increased length of hospital stay, higher morbidity and mortality rates. Although delirium is preventable with early detection, systematic assessment methods and predictive models are not universally defined, thus delirium is often underrated. In this study, we tested the role of the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), a prognostic tool based on Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment, to predict the risk of incident delirium. METHODS: Hospitalized older patients (≥ 65 years) with COVID-19 infection were enrolled (n = 502) from ten centers across Europe. At hospital admission, the MPI was administered to all the patients and two already validated delirium prediction models were computed (AWOL delirium risk-stratification score and Martinez model). Delirium occurrence during hospitalization was ascertained using the 4A's Test (4AT). Accuracy of the MPI and the other delirium predictive models was assessed through logistic regression models and the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: We analyzed 293 patients without delirium at hospital admission. Of them 33 (11.3%) developed delirium during hospitalization. Higher MPI score at admission (higher multidimensional frailty) was associated with higher risk of incident delirium also adjusting for the other delirium predictive models and COVID-19 severity (OR = 12.72, 95% CI = 2.11-76.86 for MPI-2 vs MPI-1, and OR = 33.44, 95% CI = 4.55-146.61 for MPI-3 vs MPI-1). The MPI showed good accuracy in predicting incident delirium (AUC = 0.71) also superior to AWOL tool, (AUC = 0.63) and Martinez model (AUC = 0.61) (p < 0.0001 for both comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: The MPI is a sensitive tool for early identification of older patients with incident delirium.

The Role of Multidimensional Prognostic Index to Identify Hospitalized Older Adults with COVID-19 Who Can Benefit from Remdesivir Treatment: An Observational, Prospective, Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: Data regarding the importance of multidimensional frailty to guide clinical decision making for remdesivir use in older patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are largely unexplored. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this research was to evaluate if the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), a multidimensional frailty tool based on the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), may help physicians in identifying older hospitalized patients affected by COVID-19 who might benefit from the use of remdesivir. METHODS: This was a multicenter, prospective study of older adults hospitalized for COVID-19 in 10 European hospitals, followed-up for 90 days after hospital discharge. A standardized CGA was performed at hospital admission and the MPI was calculated, with a final score ranging between 0 (lowest mortality risk) and 1 (highest mortality risk). We assessed survival with Cox regression, and the impact of remdesivir on mortality (overall and in hospital) with propensity score analysis, stratified by MPI = 0.50. RESULTS: Among 496 older adults hospitalized for COVID-19 (mean age 80 years, female 59.9%), 140 (28.2% of patients) were treated with remdesivir. During the 90 days of follow-up, 175 deaths were reported, 115 in hospital. Remdesivir treatment significantly reduced the risk of overall mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval CI 0.35-0.83 in the propensity score analysis) in the sample as whole. Stratifying the population, based on MPI score, the effect was observed only in less frail participants (HR 0.47, 95% CI 0.22-0.96 in propensity score analysis), but not in frailer subjects. In-hospital mortality was not influenced by remdesivir use. CONCLUSIONS: MPI could help to identify less frail older adults hospitalized for COVID-19 who could benefit more from remdesivir treatment in terms of long-term survival.

Can the Multidimensional Prognostic Index Improve the Identification of Older Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 Likely to Benefit from Mechanical Ventilation? An Observational, Prospective, Multicenter Study.

OBJECTIVE: Data on prognostic tools for indicating mechanical ventilation in older people with COVID-19 are still limited. The aim of this research was to evaluate if the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), based on the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), may help physicians in identifying older hospitalized patients affected by COVID-19 who might benefit from mechanical ventilation. DESIGN: Longitudinal, multicenter study. SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: 502 older people hospitalized for COVID-19 in 10 European hospitals. METHODS: MPI was calculated using 8 different domains typical of the CGA. A propensity score, Cox's regression analysis was used for assessing the impact of mechanical ventilation on rehospitalization/mortality for 90 days' follow-up, stratified by MPI = 0.50. The accuracy of MPI in predicting negative outcomes (ie, rehospitalization/mortality) was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC), and the discrimination with several indexes like the Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) and the Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI). RESULTS: Among 502 older people hospitalized for COVID-19 (mean age: 80 years), 152 were treated with mechanical ventilation. In the propensity score analysis, during the 90-day follow-up period, there were 44 rehospitalizations and 95 deaths. Mechanical ventilation in patients with MPI values ≥ 0.50, indicating frailer participants, was associated with a higher risk of rehospitalization/mortality (hazard ratio 1.56, 95% CI 1.09-2.23), whereas in participants with MPI values < 0.50 this association was not significant. The accuracy of the model including age, sex, respiratory parameters, and MPI was good (AUC = 0.783) as confirmed by an NRI of 0.2756 (P < .001) and an IDI of 0.1858 (P < .001), suggesting a good discrimination of the model in predicting negative outcomes. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: MPI could be useful for better individualizing older people hospitalized by COVID-19 who could benefit from mechanical ventilation.

The multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) for the prognostic stratification of older inpatients with COVID-19: A multicenter prospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The topic of prognosis in COVID-19 research may be important in adopting appropriate clinical decisions. Multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) is a frailty assessment tool widely used for stratifying prognosis in older people, but data regarding inpatients, affected by COVID-19, are not available. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate whether MPI can predict in-hospital mortality and the admission to intensive care unit (ICU) in older inpatients hospitalized for COVID-19 infection. METHODS: In this longitudinal, Italian, multi-center study, older patients with COVID-19 were included. MPI was calculated using eight different domains typical of comprehensive geriatric assessment and categorized in three groups (MPI 1 ≤ 0.33, MPI 2 0.34-0.66, MPI 3 > 0.66). A multivariable Cox's regression analysis was used reporting the results as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: 227 older patients hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2 infection were enrolled (mean age: 80.5 years, 59% females). Inpatients in the MPI 3 were subjected less frequently than those in the MPI 1 to non-invasive ventilation (NIV). In the multivariable analysis, people in MPI 3 experienced a higher risk of in hospital mortality (HR = 6.30, 95%CI: 1.44-27.61), compared to MPI 1. The accuracy of MPI in predicting in hospital mortality was good (Area Under the Curve (AUC) = 0.76, 95%CI: 0.68-0.83). People in MPI 3 experienced a significant longer length of stay (LOS) in hospital compared to other participants. No association between MPI and ICU admission was found. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty- as assessed by high MPI score - was associated with a significant higher risk of in-hospital mortality, longer LOS, and lower use NIV, whilst the association with ICU admission was not significant. These findings suggest that prognostic stratification by using the MPI could be useful in clinical decision making in older inpatients affected by COVID-19.

Multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) predicts non-invasive ventilation failure in older adults with acute respiratory failure.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory failure (ARF) is a very common complication among hospitalized older adults. Non-invasive ventilation (NIV) may avoid admission to intensive care units, intubation and their related complication, but still lacks specific indications in older adults. Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) based on comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) could have a role in defining the short-term prognosis and the best candidates for NIV among older adults with ARF. METHODS: This is a retrospective observational study which enrolled patients older than 70 years, consecutively admitted to an acute geriatric unit with ARF. A standardized CGA was used to calculate the MPI at admission. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to test if MPI score could predict in-hospital mortality and NIV failure. Receiver operator curve (ROC) analysis was used to identify the discriminatory power of MPI for NIV failure. RESULTS: We enrolled 231 patients (88.2 ± 5.9 years, 47% females). Mean MPI at admission was 0.76±0.16. In-hospital mortality rate was 33.8%, with similar incidence in patients treated with and without NIV. Among NIV users (26.4%), NIV failure occurred in 39.3%. Higher MPI scores at admission significantly predicted in-hospital mortality (ß=4.46, p<0.0001) among patients with ARF and NIV failure (ß=7.82, p = 0.001) among NIV users. MPI showed good discriminatory power for NIV failure (area under the curve: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.58-0.85, p<0.001) with optimal cut-off at MPI value of 0.84. CONCLUSIONS: MPI at admission might be a useful tool to early detect patients more at risk of in-hospital death and NIV failure among older adults with ARF.

Effects of oral amino acid supplementation on Multidimensional Prognostic Index in hospitalized older patients: a multicenter randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled pilot study.

BACKGROUND: It is not known whether amino acid supplementations may influence health status in hospitalized older acutely ill patients. AIM: The aim of this study was to determine whether nutritional supplementation with amino acids (Aminoglutam®) is associated with multidimensional improvement assessed with the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI). METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled pilot clinical trial, 126 patients aged ≥65 years were enrolled from 6 Italian geriatric wards. A multidimensional assessment to calculate the MPI was performed at baseline and after 4 weeks of treatment with nutritional supplementation (96 kcal, 12 g amino acids, 0.18 g fat, 11.6 g carbohydrate, and vitamins B1, B6, and C) or placebo administered twice a day. Logistic regression modeling was applied to determine the effect of treatment on the improvement of MPI (vs no-change/worsening), adjusting for gender, age, and MPI at baseline. Treatment's interactions with age, gender, and MPI at baseline were tested adding the appropriate interaction parameter in the regression models. RESULTS: Of the 126 patients included, 117 patients (93%) completed the study. A significant improvement in the MPI score was detected in the overall population (mean difference post-pretreatment: -0.03, p=0.001), with no differences between active and placebo arms. Men in the amino acid supplementation group had a significantly higher rate of improvement in MPI (81%) compared to the placebo group (46%) (Fisher's exact test p=0.03). Adjusting for age, diagnosis, and MPI at baseline, amino acid treatment was shown to be associated with an improvement in MPI in men (OR=4.82, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.87-26.7) and not in women (OR=0.70, 95% CI: 0.27-1.81). The interaction effect between active treatment and gender was significant (p=0.04). CONCLUSION: A 4-week amino acid supplementation improved the MPI significantly in hospitalized older male patients but not in female patients. Further studies are needed to confirm the gender effect of amino acid supplementation on MPI in older patients.