Machine learning risk estimation and prediction of death in continuing care facilities using administrative data.

In this study, we aimed to identify the factors that were associated with mortality among continuing care residents in Alberta, during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We achieved this by leveraging and linking various administrative datasets together. Then, we examined pre-processing methods in terms of prediction performance. Finally, we developed several machine learning models and compared the results of these models in terms of performance. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all continuing care residents in Alberta, Canada, from March 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021. We used a univariable and a multivariable logistic regression (LR) model to identify predictive factors of 60-day all-cause mortality by estimating odds ratios (ORs) with a 95% confidence interval. To determine the best sensitivity-specificity cut-off point, the Youden index was employed. We developed several machine learning models to determine the best model regarding performance. In this cohort study, increased age, male sex, symptoms, previous admissions, and some specific comorbidities were associated with increased mortality. Machine learning and pre-processing approaches offer a potentially valuable method for improving risk prediction for mortality, but more work is needed to show improvement beyond standard risk factors.

Healthcare utilization and adverse outcomes stratified by sex, age and long-term care residency using the Alberta COVID-19 Analytics and Research Database (ACARD): a population-based descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the epidemiology of Coronavirus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) in a local context is valuable for both future pandemic preparedness and potential increases in COVID-19 case volume, particularly due to variant strains. METHODS: Our work allowed us to complete a population-based study on patients who tested positive for COVID-19 in Alberta from March 1, 2020 to December 15, 2021. We completed a multi-centre, retrospective population-based descriptive study using secondary data sources in Alberta, Canada. We identified all adult patients (≥ 18 years of age) tested and subsequently positive for COVID-19 (including only the first incident case of COVID-19) on a laboratory test. We determined positive COVID-19 tests, gender, age, comorbidities, residency in a long-term care (LTC) facility, time to hospitalization, length of stay (LOS) in hospital, and mortality. Patients were followed for 60 days from a COVID-19 positive test. RESULTS: Between March 1, 2020 and December 15, 2021, 255,037 adults were identified with COVID-19 in Alberta. Most confirmed cases occurred among those less than 60 years of age (84.3%); however, most deaths (89.3%) occurred among those older than 60 years. Overall hospitalization rate among those who tested positive was 5.9%. Being a resident of LTC was associated with substantial mortality of 24.6% within 60 days of a positive COVID-19 test. The most common comorbidity among those with COVID-19 was depression. Across all patients 17.3% of males and 18.6% of females had an unplanned ambulatory visit subsequent to their positive COVID-19 test. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is associated with extensive healthcare utilization. Residents of LTC were substantially impacted during the COVID-19 pandemic with high associated mortality. Further work should be done to better understand the economic burden associated with related healthcare utilization following a COVID-19 infection to inform healthcare system resource allocation, planning, and forecasting.

Hypertension identification using inpatient clinical notes from electronic medical records: an explainable, data-driven algorithm study.

BACKGROUND: Case identification is important for health services research, measuring health system performance and risk adjustment, but existing methods based on manual chart review or diagnosis codes can be expensive, time consuming or of limited validity. We aimed to develop a hypertension case definition in electronic medical records (EMRs) for inpatient clinical notes using machine learning. METHODS: A cohort of patients 18 years of age or older who were discharged from 1 of 3 Calgary acute care facilities (1 academic hospital and 2 community hospitals) between Jan. 1 and June 30, 2015, were randomly selected, and we compared the performance of EMR phenotype algorithms developed using machine learning with an algorithm based on the Canadian version of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD), in identifying patients with hypertension. Hypertension status was determined by chart review, the machine-learning algorithms used EMR notes and the ICD algorithm used the Discharge Abstract Database (Canadian Institute for Health Information). RESULTS: Of our study sample (n = 3040), 1475 (48.5%) patients had hypertension. The group with hypertension was older (median age of 71.0 yr v. 52.5 yr for those patients without hypertension) and had fewer females (710 [48.2%] v. 764 [52.3%]). Our final EMR-based models had higher sensitivity than the ICD algorithm (> 90% v. 47%), while maintaining high positive predictive values (> 90% v. 97%). INTERPRETATION: We found that hypertension tends to have clear documentation in EMRs and is well classified by concept search on free text. Machine learning can provide insights into how and where conditions are documented in EMRs and suggest nonmachine-learning phenotypes to implement.

A Time Series Analysis Evaluating Antibiotic Prescription Rates in Long-Term Care during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Alberta and Ontario, Canada.

The COVID-19 pandemic affected access to care, and the associated public health measures influenced the transmission of other infectious diseases. The pandemic has dramatically changed antibiotic prescribing in the community. We aimed to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting control measures on oral antibiotic prescribing in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in Alberta and Ontario, Canada using linked administrative data. Antibiotic prescription data were collected for LTCF residents 65 years and older in Alberta and Ontario from 1 January 2017 until 31 December 2020. Weekly prescription rates per 1000 residents, stratified by age, sex, antibiotic class, and selected individual agents, were calculated. Interrupted time series analyses using SARIMA models were performed to test for changes in antibiotic prescription rates after the start of the pandemic (1 March 2020). The average annual cohort size was 18,489 for Alberta and 96,614 for Ontario. A significant decrease in overall weekly prescription rates after the start of the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic was found in Alberta, but not in Ontario. Furthermore, a significant decrease in prescription rates was observed for antibiotics mainly used to treat respiratory tract infections: amoxicillin in both provinces (Alberta: −0.6 per 1000 LTCF residents decrease in weekly prescription rate, p = 0.006; Ontario: −0.8, p < 0.001); and doxycycline (−0.2, p = 0.005) and penicillin (−0.04, p = 0.014) in Ontario. In Ontario, azithromycin was prescribed at a significantly higher rate after the start of the pandemic (0.7 per 1000 LTCF residents increase in weekly prescription rate, p = 0.011). A decrease in prescription rates for antibiotics that are largely used to treat respiratory tract infections is in keeping with the lower observed rates for respiratory infections resulting from pandemic control measures. The results should be considered in the contexts of different LTCF systems and provincial public health responses to the pandemic.

Validity of ICD-10 codes for COVID-19 patients with hospital admissions or ED visits in Canada: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the validity of COVID-19 International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes and their combinations. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Acute care hospitals and emergency departments (EDs) in Alberta, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: Patients who were admitted to hospital or presented to an ED in Alberta, as captured by local administrative databases between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021, who had a positive COVID-19 test and/or a COVID-19-related ICD-10 code. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV) and 95% CIs for ICD-10 codes were computed. Stratified analysis on age group, sex, symptomatic status, mechanical ventilation, hospital type, patient intensive care unit (ICU) admission, discharge status and season of pandemic were conducted. RESULTS: Two overlapping subsets of the study population were considered: those who had a positive COVID-19 test (cohort A, for estimating sensitivity) and those who had a COVID-19-related ICD-10 code (cohort B, for estimating PPV). Cohort A included 17 979 ED patients and 6477 inpatients while cohort B included 33 675 ED patients and 18 746 inpatients. Of inpatients, 9.5% in cohort A and 8.1% in cohort B received mechanical ventilation. Over 13% of inpatients were admitted to ICU. The length of hospital stay was 6 days (IQR: 3-14) for cohort A and 8 days (IQR: 3-19) for cohort B. In-hospital mortality was 15.9% and 38.8% for cohort A and B, respectively. The sensitivity for ICD-10 code U07.1 (COVID-19, virus identified) was 82.5% (81.8%-83.2%) with a PPV of 93.1% (92.6%-93.6%). The combination of U07.1 and U07.3 (multisystem inflammatory syndrome associated with COVID-19) had a sensitivity of 82.5% (81.9%-83.2%) and PPV of 92.9% (92.4%-93.4%). CONCLUSIONS: In Alberta, ICD-10 COVID-19 codes (U07.1 and U07.3) were coded well with high validity. This indicates administrative data can be used for COVID-19 research and pandemic management purposes.

Categorising patient concerns using natural language processing techniques.

OBJECTIVES: Patient feedback is critical to identify and resolve patient safety and experience issues in healthcare systems. However, large volumes of unstructured text data can pose problems for manual (human) analysis. This study reports the results of using a semiautomated, computational topic-modelling approach to analyse a corpus of patient feedback. METHODS: Patient concerns were received by Alberta Health Services between 2011 and 2018 (n=76 163), regarding 806 care facilities in 163 municipalities, including hospitals, clinics, community care centres and retirement homes, in a province of 4.4 million. Their existing framework requires manual labelling of pre-defined categories. We applied an automated latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA)-based topic modelling algorithm to identify the topics present in these concerns, and thereby produce a framework-free categorisation. RESULTS: The LDA model produced 40 topics which, following manual interpretation by researchers, were reduced to 28 coherent topics. The most frequent topics identified were communication issues causing delays (frequency: 10.58%), community care for elderly patients (8.82%), interactions with nurses (8.80%) and emergency department care (7.52%). Many patient concerns were categorised into multiple topics. Some were more specific versions of categories from the existing framework (eg, communication issues causing delays), while others were novel (eg, smoking in inappropriate settings). DISCUSSION: LDA-generated topics were more nuanced than the manually labelled categories. For example, LDA found that concerns with community care were related to concerns about nursing for seniors, providing opportunities for insight and action. CONCLUSION: Our findings outline the range of concerns patients share in a large health system and demonstrate the usefulness of using LDA to identify categories of patient concerns.

CREATE: A New Data Resource to Support Cardiac Precision Health.

BACKGROUND: The initiatives of precision medicine and learning health systems require databases with rich and accurately captured data on patient characteristics. We introduce the Clinical Registry, AdminisTrative Data and Electronic Medical Records (CREATE) database, which includes linked data from 4 population databases: Alberta Provincial Project for Outcome Assessment in Coronary Heart Disease (APPROACH; a national clinical registry), Sunrise Clinical Manager (SCM) electronic medical record (city-wide), the Discharge Abstract Database (DAD), and the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS). The intent of this work is to introduce a cardiovascular-specific database for pursuing precision health activities using big data analytics. METHODS: We used deterministic data linkage to link SCM electronic medical record data to APPROACH clinical registry data using patient identifier variables. The APPROACH-SCM data set was subsequently linked to DAD and NACRS to obtain inpatient and outpatient cohort data. We further validated the quality of the linkage, where applicable, in these databases by comparing against the Alberta Health Insurance Care Plan registry database. RESULTS: We achieved 99.96% linkage across these 4 databases. Currently, there are 30,984 patients with 35,753 catheterizations in the CREATE database. The inpatient cohort contained 65.75% (20,373/30,984) of the patient sample, whereas the outpatient cohort contained 29.78% (9226/30,984). The infrastructure and the process to update and expand the database has been established. CONCLUSIONS: CREATE is intended to serve as a database for supporting big data analytics activities surrounding cardiac precision health. The CREATE database will be managed by the Centre for Health Informatics at the University of Calgary, and housed in a secure high-performance computing environment.

CONTEXTE: Les initiatives en matière de médecine de précision et les systèmes de santé apprenants ont besoin de bases de données riches et exactes sur les caractéristiques des patients. Nous présentons ici la base de données CREATE ( C linical Re gistry, A dminis t rative Data and E lectronic Medical Records), qui regroupe les données couplées de quatre bases de données populationnelles : le registre clinique national APPROACH ( A lberta P rovincial Pr oject for O utcome A ssessment in C oronary H eart Disease), le système de gestion des dossiers médicaux électroniques SCM (Sunrise Clinical Manager, utilisé à l'échelle municipale), la Base de données sur les congés des patients (BDCP), et le Système national d'information sur les soins ambulatoires (SNISA). Notre objectif est d'offrir une base de données portant précisément sur les maladies cardiovasculaires, afin de soutenir les activités en santé de précision nécessitant l'analyse de mégadonnées. MÉTHODOLOGIE: Nous avons utilisé une méthode de couplage déterministe pour apparier les données du système SCM à celles du registre APPROACH à l'aide de variables d'identification des patients. L'ensemble de données SCM-APPROACH a ensuite été couplé aux données de la BDCP et du SNISA, afin d'obtenir les données des cohortes des patients hospitalisés et des patients ambulatoires. Lorsque c'était possible, nous avons en outre validé la qualité du couplage en comparant les données à celles de la base de données du Régime d'assurance maladie de l'Alberta. RÉSULTATS: Nous avons obtenu un taux de couplage de 99,96 % pour les quatre bases de données. À l'heure actuelle, la base de données CREATE compte 30 984 patients ayant subi 35 753 cathétérismes. La cohorte des patients hospitalisés représente 65,75 % (20 373/30 984) de l'échantillon, tandis que la cohorte des patients ambulatoires représente 29,78 % (9226/30 984). L'infrastructure et le processus de mise à jour et d'expansion de la base de données ont été définis. CONCLUSIONS: La base de données CREATE est destinée à soutenir les activités d'analyse de mégadonnées nécessaires à la santé cardiaque de précision. Elle sera gérée par le Centre for Health Informatics de l'Université de Calgary et hébergée dans un environnement informatique à haut rendement sécurisé.

Enhancing ICD-Code-Based Case Definition for Heart Failure Using Electronic Medical Record Data.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance and outcome studies for heart failure (HF) require accurate identification of patients with HF. Algorithms based on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes to identify HF from administrative data are inadequate owing to their relatively low sensitivity. Detailed clinical information from electronic medical records (EMRs) is potentially useful for improving ICD algorithms. This study aimed to enhance the ICD algorithm for HF definition by incorporating comprehensive information from EMRs. METHODS: The study included 2106 inpatients in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Medical chart review was used as the reference gold standard for evaluating developed algorithms. The commonly used ICD codes for defining HF were used (namely, the ICD algorithm). The performance of different algorithms using the free text discharge summaries from a population-based EMR were compared with the ICD algorithm. These algorithms included a keyword search algorithm looking for HF-specific terms, a machine learning-based HF concept (HFC) algorithm, an EMR structured data based algorithm, and combined algorithms (the ICD and HFC combined algorithm). RESULTS: Of 2106 patients, 296 (14.1%) were patients with HF as determined by chart review. The ICD algorithm had 92.4% positive predictive value (PPV) but low sensitivity (57.4%). The EMR keyword search algorithm achieved a higher sensitivity (65.5%) than the ICD algorithm, but with a lower PPV (77.6%). The HFC algorithm achieved a better sensitivity (80.0%) and maintained a reasonable PPV (88.9%) compared with the ICD algorithm and the keyword algorithm. An even higher sensitivity (83.3%) was reached by combining the HFC and ICD algorithms, with a lower PPV (83.3%). The structured EMR data algorithm reached a sensitivity of 78% and a PPV of 54.2%. The combined EMR structured data and ICD algorithm had a higher sensitivity (82.4%), but the PPV remained low at 54.8%. All algorithms had a specificity ranging from 87.5% to 99.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Applying natural language processing and machine learning on the discharge summaries of inpatient EMR data can improve the capture of cases of HF compared with the widely used ICD algorithm. The utility of the HFC algorithm is straightforward, making it easily applied for HF case identification.

Development and validation of data quality rules in administrative health data using association rule mining.

BACKGROUND: Data quality assessment presents a challenge for research using coded administrative health data. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a set of coding association rules for coded diagnostic data. METHODS: We used the Canadian re-abstracted hospital discharge abstract data coded in International Classification of Disease, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. Association rule mining was conducted on the re-abstracted data in four age groups (0-4, 20-44, 45-64; ≥ 65) to extract ICD-10 coding association rules at the three-digit (category of diagnosis) and four-digit levels (category of diagnosis with etiology, anatomy, or severity). The rules were reviewed by a panel of 5 physicians and 2 classification specialists using a modified Delphi rating process. We proposed and defined the variance and bias to assess data quality using the rules. RESULTS: After the rule mining process and the panel review, 388 rules at the three-digit level and 275 rules at the four-digit level were developed. Half of the rules were from the age group of ≥65. Rules captured meaningful age-specific clinical associations, with rules at the age group of ≥65 being more complex and comprehensive than other age groups. The variance and bias can identify rules with high bias and variance in Alberta data and provides directions for quality improvement. CONCLUSIONS: A set of ICD-10 data quality rules were developed and validated by a clinical and classification expert panel. The rules can be used as a tool to assess ICD-coded data, enabling the monitoring and comparison of data quality across institutions, provinces, and countries.