Predicting future cognitive decline from non-brain and multimodal brain imaging data in healthy and pathological aging.

Previous literature has focused on predicting a diagnostic label from structural brain imaging. Since subtle changes in the brain precede a cognitive decline in healthy and pathological aging, our study predicts future decline as a continuous trajectory instead. Here, we tested whether baseline multimodal neuroimaging data improve the prediction of future cognitive decline in healthy and pathological aging. Nonbrain data (demographics, clinical, and neuropsychological scores), structural MRI, and functional connectivity data from OASIS-3 (N = 662; age = 46-96 years) were entered into cross-validated multitarget random forest models to predict future cognitive decline (measured by CDR and MMSE), on average 5.8 years into the future. The analysis was preregistered, and all analysis code is publicly available. Combining non-brain with structural data improved the continuous prediction of future cognitive decline (best test-set performance: R2 = 0.42). Cognitive performance, daily functioning, and subcortical volume drove the performance of our model. Including functional connectivity did not improve predictive accuracy. In the future, the prognosis of age-related cognitive decline may enable earlier and more effective individualized cognitive, pharmacological, and behavioral interventions.

Population modeling with machine learning can enhance measures of mental health.

BACKGROUND: Biological aging is revealed by physical measures, e.g., DNA probes or brain scans. In contrast, individual differences in mental function are explained by psychological constructs, e.g., intelligence or neuroticism. These constructs are typically assessed by tailored neuropsychological tests that build on expert judgement and require careful interpretation. Could machine learning on large samples from the general population be used to build proxy measures of these constructs that do not require human intervention? RESULTS: Here, we built proxy measures by applying machine learning on multimodal MR images and rich sociodemographic information from the largest biomedical cohort to date: the UK Biobank. Objective model comparisons revealed that all proxies captured the target constructs and were as useful, and sometimes more useful, than the original measures for characterizing real-world health behavior (sleep, exercise, tobacco, alcohol consumption). We observed this complementarity of proxy measures and original measures at capturing multiple health-related constructs when modeling from, both, brain signals and sociodemographic data. CONCLUSION: Population modeling with machine learning can derive measures of mental health from heterogeneous inputs including brain signals and questionnaire data. This may complement or even substitute for psychometric assessments in clinical populations.

Fine-grain atlases of functional modes for fMRI analysis.

Population imaging markedly increased the size of functional-imaging datasets, shedding new light on the neural basis of inter-individual differences. Analyzing these large data entails new scalability challenges, computational and statistical. For this reason, brain images are typically summarized in a few signals, for instance reducing voxel-level measures with brain atlases or functional modes. A good choice of the corresponding brain networks is important, as most data analyses start from these reduced signals. We contribute finely-resolved atlases of functional modes, comprising from 64 to 1024 networks. These dictionaries of functional modes (DiFuMo) are trained on millions of fMRI functional brain volumes of total size 2.4 â€‹TB, spanned over 27 studies and many research groups. We demonstrate the benefits of extracting reduced signals on our fine-grain atlases for many classic functional data analysis pipelines: stimuli decoding from 12,334 brain responses, standard GLM analysis of fMRI across sessions and individuals, extraction of resting-state functional-connectomes biomarkers for 2500 individuals, data compression and meta-analysis over more than 15,000 statistical maps. In each of these analysis scenarii, we compare the performance of our functional atlases with that of other popular references, and to a simple voxel-level analysis. Results highlight the importance of using high-dimensional "soft" functional atlases, to represent and analyze brain activity while capturing its functional gradients. Analyses on high-dimensional modes achieve similar statistical performance as at the voxel level, but with much reduced computational cost and higher interpretability. In addition to making them available, we provide meaningful names for these modes, based on their anatomical location. It will facilitate reporting of results.

Variability in the analysis of a single neuroimaging dataset by many teams.

Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. Here we assess the effect of this flexibility on the results of functional magnetic resonance imaging by asking 70 independent teams to analyse the same dataset, testing the same 9 ex-ante hypotheses1. The flexibility of analytical approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyse the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in the results of hypothesis tests, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of the analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Notably, a meta-analytical approach that aggregated information across teams yielded a significant consensus in activated regions. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset2-5. Our findings show that analytical flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and identify factors that may be related to variability in the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for performing and reporting multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches that could be used to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed.

Benchmarking functional connectome-based predictive models for resting-state fMRI.

Functional connectomes reveal biomarkers of individual psychological or clinical traits. However, there is great variability in the analytic pipelines typically used to derive them from rest-fMRI cohorts. Here, we consider a specific type of studies, using predictive models on the edge weights of functional connectomes, for which we highlight the best modeling choices. We systematically study the prediction performances of models in 6 different cohorts and a total of 2000 individuals, encompassing neuro-degenerative (Alzheimer's, Post-traumatic stress disorder), neuro-psychiatric (Schizophrenia, Autism), drug impact (Cannabis use) clinical settings and psychological trait (fluid intelligence). The typical prediction procedure from rest-fMRI consists of three main steps: defining brain regions, representing the interactions, and supervised learning. For each step we benchmark typical choices: 8 different ways of defining regions -either pre-defined or generated from the rest-fMRI data- 3 measures to build functional connectomes from the extracted time-series, and 10 classification models to compare functional interactions across subjects. Our benchmarks summarize more than 240 different pipelines and outline modeling choices that show consistent prediction performances in spite of variations in the populations and sites. We find that regions defined from functional data work best; that it is beneficial to capture between-region interactions with tangent-based parametrization of covariances, a midway between correlations and partial correlation; and that simple linear predictors such as a logistic regression give the best predictions. Our work is a step forward to establishing reproducible imaging-based biomarkers for clinical settings.