A Predictive Model of the Start of Annual Influenza Epidemics.

Influenza is a respiratory disease that causes annual epidemics during cold seasons. These epidemics increase pressure on healthcare systems, sometimes provoking their collapse. For this reason, a tool is needed to predict when an influenza epidemic will occur so that the healthcare system has time to prepare for it. This study therefore aims to develop a statistical model capable of predicting the onset of influenza epidemics in Catalonia, Spain. Influenza seasons from 2011 to 2017 were used for model training, and those from 2017 to 2018 were used for validation. Logistic regression, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest models were used to predict the onset of the influenza epidemic. The logistic regression model was able to predict the start of influenza epidemics at least one week in advance, based on clinical diagnosis rates of various respiratory diseases and meteorological variables. This model achieved the best punctual estimates for two of three performance metrics. The most important variables in the model were the principal components of bronchiolitis rates and mean temperature. The onset of influenza epidemics can be predicted from clinical diagnosis rates of various respiratory diseases and meteorological variables. Future research should determine whether predictive models play a key role in preventing influenza.

Nutrition and Chronobiology as Key Components of Multidisciplinary Therapeutic Interventions for Fibromyalgia and Associated Chronic Fatigue Syndrome: A Narrative and Critical Review.

Fibromyalgia (FM) is often accompanied by chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS). It is a poorly understood disorder that mainly affects women and leads to chronic pain, fatigue, and insomnia, among other symptoms, which decrease quality of life. Due to the inefficiency of current pharmacological treatments, increasing interest is being directed towards non-pharmacological multicomponent therapies. However, nutrition and chronobiology are often overlooked when developing multicomponent therapies. This narrative and critical review explore the relevance of nutritional and chronobiological strategies in the therapeutic management of FM and the often-associated CFS. Reviewed literature offers scientific evidence for the association of dietary habits, nutrient levels, body composition, gut microbiota imbalance, chronobiological alterations, and their interrelation with the development and severity of symptoms. This review highlights the key role of nutrition and chronobiology as relevant and indispensable components in a multidisciplinary approach to FM and CFS.

Impact of Implementing a Dyslipidemia Management Guideline on Cholesterol Control for Secondary Prevention of Ischemic Heart Disease in Primary Care.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the main cause of death worldwide. The control of CVD risk factors, such as dyslipidemia, reduces their mortality rate. Nonetheless, fewer than 50% of patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD) have good cholesterol control. Our objective is to assess whether the level of participation of general practitioners (GPs) in activities to implement a dyslipidemia management guideline, and the characteristics of the patient and physician are associated with cholesterol control in IHD patients. We undertook a quasi-experimental, uncontrolled, before-and-after study of 1151 patients. The intervention was carried out during 2010 and 2011, and consisted of a face-to-face training and online course phase (Phase 1), and another of face-to-face feedback (Phase 2). The main outcome variable was the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) control, whereby values of <100 mg/dL (2.6 mmol/L) were set as a good level of control, according to the recommendations of the guidelines in force in 2009. After Phase 1, 6.7% more patients demonstrated good cholesterol control. With respect to patient characteristics, being female and being older were found to be risk factors of poor control. Being diabetic and having suffered a stroke were protective factors. Of the GPs' characteristics, being tutor in a teaching center for GP residents and having completed the online course were found to be protective factors. We concluded that cholesterol control in IHD patients was influenced by the type of training activity undertook by physicians during the implementation of the GPC, and patient and physician characteristics. We highlight that if we apply the recent targets of the European guideline, which establish a lower level of LDL-C control, the percentage of good control could be worse than the observed in this study.

Cost-effectiveness of direct oral anticoagulants versus vitamin K antagonist in atrial fibrillation: A study protocol using Real-World Data from Catalonia (FantasTIC Study).

BACKGROUND: Anticoagulant therapy is used for stroke prevention and proved to be effective and safe in the long term. The study aims to analyse the cost-effectiveness relationship of using of direct-acting oral anticoagulants vs vitamin K antagonists to prevent ischaemic stroke in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, including all the active ingredients marketed in Spain, prescribed for 2 years in the Primary Care service of the Institut Català de la Salut. METHODS: Population-based cohort study, in which the cost of the 2 treatment groups will be evaluated. Direct costs (pharmacy, primary care, emergency and hospitalization) and indirect costs (lost productivity) will be included from a social perspective. Effectiveness (assessed as the occurrence of a health event, the 1 of primary interest being stroke) will be determined, with a 2-year time horizon and a 3% discount rate. The average cost of the 2 groups of drugs will be compared using a regression model to determine the factors with the greatest influence on determining costs. We will carry out a univariate ('one-way') deterministic sensitivity analysis. DISCUSSION: We hope to provide relevant information about direct and indirect costs of oral anticoagulants, which, together with aspects of effectiveness and safety, could help shape the consensual decision-making of evaluating bodies.

Ten-Year Follow-Up of Clinical Governance Implementation in Primary Care: Improving Screening, Diagnosis and Control of Cardiovascular Risk Factors.

Current improvement strategies for the control of cardiovascular risk factors (CRFs) in Europe are based on quality management policies. With the aim of understanding the effect of interventions delivered by primary healthcare systems, we evaluated the impact of clinical governance on cardiovascular health after ten years of implementation in Catalonia. A cohort study that included 1878 patients was conducted in 19 primary care centres (PCCs). Audits that comprised 13 cardiovascular health indicators were performed and general practitioners received periodic (annual, biannual or monthly) feedback about their clinical practice. We evaluated improvement in screening, diagnosis and control of the main CRFs and the effects of the feedback on cardiovascular risk (CR), incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality, comparing baseline data with data at the end of the study (after a 10-year follow-up). The impact of the intervention was assessed globally and with respect to feedback frequency. General improvement was observed in screening, percentage of diagnoses and control of CRFs. At the end of the study, few clinically significant differences in CRFs were observed between groups. However, the reduction in CR was greater in the group receiving high frequency feedback, specifically in relation to smoking and control of diabetes and cholesterol (Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL) and High Density Lipoprotein (HDL)). A protective effect of having a cardiovascular event (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.44-0.94) or death (HR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.35-0.88) was observed in patients from centres where general practitioners received high frequency feedback. Additionally, these PCCs presented improved cardiovascular health indicators and lower incidence and mortality by CVD, illustrating the impact of this intervention.

Effectiveness, cost-utility, and benefits of a multicomponent therapy to improve the quality of life of patients with fibromyalgia in primary care: A mixed methods study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic condition characterized by chronic pain, fatigue and loss of function which significantly impairs quality of life. Although treatment of FM remains disputed, some studies point at the efficacy of interdisciplinary therapy. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness, cost-utility and benefits of a multicomponent therapy on quality of life (main variable), functional impact, mood and pain in people suffering from FM that attend primary care centers (PCCs) of the Catalan Institute of Health (ICS). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A 2-phase, mixed methods study has been designed following Medical Research Council guidance. Phase 1: Pragmatic randomized clinical trial with patients diagnosed with FM that attend one of the 11 PCCs of the ICS Gerència Territorial Terres de l'Ebre. We estimate a total sample of 336 patients. The control group will receive usual clinical care, while the multicomponent therapy group (MT group) will receive usual clinical care plus group therapy (consisting of health education, exercise and cognitive-behavioural therapy) during 12 weeks in 2-hourly weekly sessions. ANALYSIS: the standardized mean response and the standardized effect size will be assessed at 3, 9, and 15 months after the beginning of the study using multiple linear regression models. Utility measurements will be used for the economic analysis. Phase 2: Qualitative socio constructivist study to evaluate the intervention according to the results obtained and the opinions and experiences of participants (patients and professionals). We will use theoretical sampling, with 2 discussion groups of participants in the multicomponent therapy and 2 discussion groups of professionals of different PCCs. A thematic content analysis will be carried out. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study protocol has been approved by the Clinical Research Ethics Committee of the Fundació Institut Universitari per a la recerca a l'Atenció Primària de Salut Jordi Gol i Gurina (code P18/068). Articles will be published in international, peer-reviewed scientific journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical-Trials.gov: NCT04049006.

A new clinical decision support tool for improving the adequacy of anticoagulant therapy and reducing the incidence of stroke in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation: A randomized clinical trial in primary care.

INTRODUCTION: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia and increases the risk of ischemic stroke 4 to 5-fold. The first choice of anticoagulant therapy (AT) is the vitamin K antagonist (VKA). Contraindication to VKA or poor control of the International Normalized Ratio leads to the administration of direct-acting oral anticoagulants. There is a trend toward inadequate AT in nonvalvular AF (NVAF) patients. AIM: To evaluate the impact of the implementation of a decision support tool linked to the digital clinical history on the adequacy of AT, the incidence of complications, and the mortality in patients with NVAF in primary care centers (PCCs) of the Catalan Institute of Health (ICS). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Randomized clinical trial in 287 PCCs, formed by 2 groups (intervention and control). POPULATION: patients controlled in PCCs, diagnosed with NVAF 1 year before the implementation of the decision support tool and with VKA treatment over a minimum of 1 year. A simple randomization method will be performed at a sector level. The decision support tool will be available for 1 year. The time in therapeutic range (TTR) will be available in the digital clinical history only to professionals of the intervention group. The information system for primary care research development database will be used for the data extraction. Statistical analysis will be done at 3 time points: before the implementation of the tool, at 1 year, and at 2 years after the beginning of the intervention. Multilevel (patient and professional levels) logistic regression models will be used to estimate the effect of the intervention. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study protocol was approved by the Ethical Committee of Clinical Investigation of the Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol (code P17/091). Articles will be published in scientific journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical-Trials.gov: NCT03367325.

[Differences between MDRD-4 and CG in the prevalence of renal failure and its associated variables in type2 diabetic patients]. / Diferencias entre MDRD-4 y CG en la prevalencia de la insuficiencia renal y sus variables asociadas en pacientes diabéticos tipo2.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of occult renal failure (RF) in DM2, by comparing two formulas for estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR): Modification of Diet in Renal Disease 4 (MDRD-4) and Cockcroft-Gault (CG), as well as their associated clinical variables. DESIGN: Multicentre analytical cross-sectional. LOCATION: Two basic Primary Care areas in Terres de l'Ebre, in North-Eastern Spain. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 493 DM2 patients with age >18years with an assigned doctor in the areas studied. There was a loss of 9 and 11 cases in each formula due to lack of variables necessary for the GFR. MAIN MEASUREMENTS: Estimated GFR using the two formulas, plasma creatinine values, classification of patients with established RF, occult RF and without RF, and possible clinical-pathological variables associated with RF. RESULTS: Of the total, 45.2% were men, the mean age was 70.4 years, and mean time since onset of diabetes of 7.5 years. The prevalence of occult RF with MDRD-4 was 18%, and 22.6% with CG. The cases detected by GC and not by MDRD-4 were higher, and with lower weight. In both formulas, occult RF patients had more chronic diseases, hypertension, and cardiovascular events (CV) than those without RF. Risk factors associated with occult RF were female, increasing age, and LDL cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of occult RF was 20% in DM2, independently of the formula. A poorer control of cardiovascular risk factors was observed, which makes them a group at higher risk of suffering a CV event.