Joint modeling of interval counts of recurrent events and death.

When a recurrent event process is ended by death, this may imply dependent censoring if the two processes are associated. Such dependent censoring would have to be modeled to obtain a valid inference. Moreover, the dependence between the recurrence process and the terminal event may be the primary topic of interest. Joint frailty models for recurrent events and death, which include a separate dependence parameter, have been proposed for exactly observed recurrence times. However, in many situations, only the number of events experienced during consecutive time intervals are available. We propose a method for estimating a joint frailty model based on such interval counts and observed or independently censored terminal events. The baseline rates of the two processes are modeled by piecewise constant functions, and Gaussian quadrature is used to approximate the marginal likelihood. Covariates can be included in a proportional rates setting. The observation intervals for the recurrent event counts can differ between individuals. Furthermore, we adapt a score test for the association between recurrent events and death to the setting in which only individual interval counts are observed. We study the performance of both approaches via simulation studies, and exemplify the methodology in a biodemographic study of the dependence between budding rates and mortality in the species Eleutheria dichotoma.

Population density shapes patterns of survival and reproduction in Eleutheria dichotoma (Hydrozoa: Anthoathecata).

Budding hydromedusae have high reproductive rates due to asexual reproduction and can occur in high population densities along the coasts, specifically in tidal pools. In laboratory experiments, we investigated the effects of population density on the survival and reproductive strategies of a single clone of Eleutheria dichotoma. We found that sexual reproduction occurs with the highest rate at medium population densities. Increased sexual reproduction was associated with lower budding (asexual reproduction) and survival probability. Sexual reproduction results in the production of motile larvae that can, in contrast to medusae, seek to escape unfavorable conditions by actively looking for better environments. The successful settlement of a larva results in starting the polyp stage, which is probably more resistant to environmental conditions. This is the first study that has examined the life-history strategies of the budding hydromedusa E. dichotoma by conducting a long-term experiment with a relatively large sample size that allowed for the examination of age-specific mortality and reproductive rates. We found that most sexual and asexual reproduction occurred at the beginning of life following a very rapid process of maturation. The parametric models fitted to the mortality data showed that population density was associated with an increase in the rate of aging, an increase in the level of late-life mortality plateau, and a decrease in the hidden heterogeneity in individual mortality rates. The effects of population density on life-history traits are discussed in the context of resource allocation and the r/K-strategies' continuum concept.

Latitudinal and age-specific patterns of larval mortality in the damselfly Lestes sponsa: Senescence before maturity?

Latitudinal differences in life history traits driven by differences in seasonal time constraints have been widely documented. Yet, latitudinal patterns in (age-specific) mortality rates have been poorly studied. Here, we studied latitudinal differences in pre-adult age-specific mortality patterns in the strictly univoltine damselfly Lestes sponsa. We compared individuals from three latitudes reared from the egg stage in the laboratory at temperatures and photoperiods simulating those at the latitude of origin (main experiment) and under common-garden conditions at a fixed temperature and photoperiod (supplementary experiment). Results from the main experiment showed that the high-latitude population exhibited higher mortality rates than the central and southern populations, likely reflecting a cost of their faster development. Age-specific mortality patterns, also indicated higher ageing rates in the high-latitude compared to the low-latitude population, which likely had a genetic basis. The strong within-population variation in hatching dates in the low-latitude population caused variation in mortality rates; individuals that hatched later showed higher mortality rates presumably due to their shorter development times compared to larvae that hatched earlier. In both experiments, larvae from all three latitudes showed accelerated mortality rates with age, which is consistent with a pattern of senescence before adulthood.