Heterogeneity in a communal cattle-farming system in a zone endemic for foot and mouth disease in South Africa.

In South Africa, communal livestock farming is predominant in the foot and mouth disease control zone adjacent to the Greater Kruger National Park (KNP), where infected African buffaloes are common. During routine veterinary inspections of cattle in this area, a large amount of production and demographic parameters were being recorded. These data were collated for a five-year period (2003-2007) in three study sites to better understand the temporal dynamics and spatial heterogeneity in this system. A decreasing gradient from South to North with respect to both human and cattle population densities was observed. Rainfall and human population density alone could explain 71% of the variation in cattle density. Northern and central sites showed an overall decrease in total cattle numbers (15.1 and 2.9%, respectively), whereas a 28.6% increase was recorded in the South. The number of cattle owners in relation to cattle numbers remained stable during the study period. Only 4.0% of households in the South own cattle, compared to 13.7 and 12.7% in the North and Centre. The overall annual calving rate was 23.8%. Annual mortality rates ranged from 2.4 to 3.2%. Low calf mortality (2.1%) was recorded in the North compared to the South (11.6%). Annual off-take in the form of slaughter averaged 0.2, 11.7, and 11.0% in the North, Central and South sites, respectively. These figures provide valuable baseline data and demonstrate considerable spatial heterogeneity in cattle demography and production at this wildlife-livestock interface, which should be taken into consideration when performing disease risk assessments or designing disease control systems.

Impact of habitat fragmentation on tsetse populations and trypanosomosis risk in Eastern Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Fragmentation of tsetse habitat in eastern Zambia is largely due to encroachments by subsistence farmers into new areas in search of new agricultural land. The impact of habitat fragmentation on tsetse populations is not clearly understood. This study was aimed at establishing the impact of habitat fragmentation on physiological and demographic parameters of tsetse flies in order to enhance the understanding of the relationship between fragmentation and African animal trypanosomosis (AAT) risk. METHODS: A longitudinal study was conducted to establish the age structure, abundance, proportion of females and trypanosome infection rate of Glossina morsitans morsitans Westwood (Diptera: Glossinidae) in areas of varying degrees of habitat fragmentation in Eastern Zambia. Black screen fly rounds were used to sample tsetse populations monthly for 1 year. Logistic regression was used to analyse age, proportion of females and infection rate data. RESULTS: Flies got significantly older as fragmentation increased (p < 0.004). The proportion of old flies, i.e. above ovarian category four, increased significantly (P < 0.001) from 25.9% (CI 21.4-31.1) at the least fragmented site (Lusandwa) to 74.2% (CI 56.8-86.3) at the highly fragmented site (Chisulo). In the most fragmented area (Kasamanda), tsetse flies had almost disappeared. In the highly fragmented area a significantly higher trypanosome infection rate in tsetse (P < 0.001) than in areas with lower fragmentation was observed. Consequently a comparatively high trypanosomosis incidence rate in livestock was observed there despite lower tsetse density (p < 0.001). The overall proportion of captured female flies increased significantly (P < 0.005) as fragmentation reduced. The proportion increased from 0.135 (CI 0.10-0.18) to 0.285 (CI 0.26-0.31) at the highly and least fragmented sites, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Habitat fragmentation creates conditions to which tsetse populations respond physiologically and demographically thereby affecting tsetse-trypanosome interactions and hence influencing trypanosomosis risk. Temperature rise due to fragmentation coupled with dominance of old flies in populations increases infection rate in tsetse and hence creates high risk of trypanosomosis in fragmented areas. Possibilities of how correlations between biological characteristics of populations and the degree of fragmentation can be used to structure populations based on their well-being, using integrated GIS and remote sensing techniques are discussed.

A Bayesian geostatistical Moran Curve model for estimating net changes of tsetse populations in Zambia.

For the first time a Bayesian geostatistical version of the Moran Curve, a logarithmic form of the Ricker stock recruitment curve, is proposed that is able to give an estimate of net change in population demographic rates considering components such as fertility and density dependent and density independent mortalities. The method is applied to spatio-temporally referenced count data of tsetse flies obtained from fly-rounds. The model is a linear regression with three components: population rate of change estimated from the Moran curve, an explicit spatio-temporal covariance, and the observation error optimised within a Bayesian framework. The model was applied to the three main climate seasons of Zambia (rainy--January to April, cold-dry--May to August, and hot-dry--September to December) taking into account land surface temperature and (seasonally changing) cattle distribution. The model shows a maximum positive net change during the hot-dry season and a minimum between the rainy and cold-dry seasons. Density independent losses are correlated positively with day-time land surface temperature and negatively with night-time land surface temperature and cattle distribution. The inclusion of density dependent mortality increases considerably the goodness of fit of the model. Cross validation with an independent dataset taken from the same area resulted in a very accurate estimate of tsetse catches. In general, the overall framework provides an important tool for vector control and eradication by identifying vector population concentrations and local vector demographic rates. It can also be applied to the case of sustainable harvesting of natural populations.

Distribution and density of tsetse flies (Glossinidae: Diptera) at the game/people/livestock interface of the Nkhotakota Game Reserve human sleeping sickness focus in Malawi.

In large parts sub-Saharan Africa, tsetse flies, the vectors of African human or animal trypanosomiasis, are, or will in the foreseeable future, be confined to protected areas such as game or national parks. Challenge of people and livestock is likely to occur at the game/livestock/people interface of such infested areas. Since tsetse control in protected areas is difficult, management of trypanosomiasis in people and/or livestock requires a good understanding of tsetse population dynamics along such interfaces. The Nkhotakota Game Reserve, an important focus of human trypanosomiasis in Malawi, is a tsetse-infested protected area surrounded by a virtually tsetse-free zone. The abundance of tsetse (Glossina morsitans morsitans) along the interface, within and outside the game reserve, was monitored over 15 months using epsilon traps. A land cover map described the vegetation surrounding the traps. Few flies were captured outside the reserve. Inside, the abundance of tsetse at the interface was low but increased away from the boundary. This uneven distribution of tsetse inside the reserve is attributed to the uneven distribution of wildlife, the main host of tsetse, being concentrated deeper inside the reserve. Challenge of people and livestock at the interface is thus expected to be low, and cases of trypanosomiasis are likely due to people and/or livestock entering the reserve. Effective control of trypanosomiasis in people and livestock could be achieved by increasing the awareness among people of dangers associated with entering the reserve.