How interacting anthropogenic pressures alter the plasticity of breeding time in two common songbirds.

Phenological adjustment is the first line of adaptive response of vertebrates when seasonality is disrupted by climate change. The prevailing response is to reproduce earlier in warmer springs, but habitat changes, such as forest degradation, are expected to affect phenological plasticity, for example, due to loss of reliability of environmental cues used by organisms to time reproduction. Relying on a two-decade, country-level capture-based monitoring of common songbirds' reproduction, we investigated how habitat anthropization, here characterized by the rural-urban and forest-farmland gradients, affected the average phenology and plasticity to local temperature in two common species, the great tit Parus major and the blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus. We built a hierarchical model that simultaneously estimated fledging phenology and its response to spring temperatures based on the changes in the proportion of juveniles captured over the breeding season. Both species fledge earlier in warmer sites (blue tit: 2.94 days/°C, great tit: 3.83 days/°C), in warmer springs (blue tit: 2.49 days/°C, great tit: 2.75 days/°C) and in most urbanized habitats (4 days for blue tit and 2 days for great tit). The slope of the reaction norm of fledging phenology to spring temperature varied across sites in both species, but this variation was explained by habitat anthropization only in the deciduous forest specialist, the blue tit. In this species, the responses to spring temperature were shallower in agricultural landscapes and slightly steeper in more urban areas. Habitat anthropization did not explain variation in the slope of the reaction norm in the habitat-generalist species (great tit), for which mean fledgling phenology and plasticity were correlated (i.e., steeper response in later sites). The effects of habitat change on phenological reaction norms provide another way through which combined environmental degradations may threaten populations' persistence, to an extent depending on species and on the changes in their prey phenology and abundance.

Synchrony in adult survival is remarkably strong among common temperate songbirds across France.

Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta-populations and meta-communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta-populations and meta-communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species. Using a Bayesian hierarchical multisite multispecies mark-recapture model, we investigated temporal interspecific synchrony in annual adult apparent survival for 16 common songbird species across France for the period 2001-2016. Annual adult survival was largely synchronous among species (73%, 95% credible interval [47%-94%] of the variation among years was common to all species), despite species differing in ecological niche and life history. This result was robust to different model formulations, uneven species sample sizes, and removing the long-term trend in survival. Synchrony was also shared across migratory strategies, which suggests that environmental forcing during the 4-month temperate breeding season has a large-scale, interspecific impact on songbird survival. However, the strong interspecific synchrony was not easily explained by a set of candidate weather variables we defined a priori. Spring weather variables explained only 1.4% [0.01%-5.5%] of synchrony, while the contribution of large-scale winter weather indices may have been stronger but uncertain, accounting for 12% [0.3%-37%] of synchrony. Future research could jointly model interspecific variation and covariation in breeding success, age-dependent survival, and age-dependent dispersal to understand when interspecific synchrony in abundance emerges and destabilizes meta-communities.