Nutritional Avocado Intervention Improves Physical Activity Measures in Hispanic/Latino Families: A Cluster RCT.

Introduction: Nutrition and physical activity are key components for the prevention of cardiovascular disease. There remains a paucity of trial data on the effect of specific nutritional interventions on physical activity and sedentary time. One question is how a common nutrient-dense food such as avocado may impact physical activity and sedentary time in Hispanic/Latino families, a group that reports the lowest levels of physical activity. Design: This is a 6-month clustered RCT. Setting/participants: Seventy-two families (235 individuals) who identified as Hispanic/Latino were enrolled through the San Ysidro Health Center (San Diego, CA) between April 2017 and June 2018. Intervention: After a 2-week run-in period, 35 families were randomized to the intervention arm (14 avocados/family/week), and 37 families were assigned to the control arm (3 avocados/family/week). Main outcome measures: Linear mixed-effects models were used to assess changes in physical activity (MET minutes per week) between the groups during the 6-month trial. Secondary outcomes included sedentary time (minutes/week), BMI, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures. Results: An adherence goal of >80% was achieved for both arms. Total mean physical activity increased by 2,197 MET minutes per week more in the intervention group (p<0.01) than in the control group, driven by between-group differences in moderate (p<0.01) versus vigorous (p=0.06) physical activity. After accounting for longitudinal repeated measures per participant and nested family effects, total adult physical activity remained significantly higher in the intervention than in the control group (+1,163 MET minutes per week on average per participant), with a significant intervention interaction term (p<0.01). There were no significant changes in sedentary time, BMI, or blood pressure. Conclusions: Higher allocation of avocados was associated with significantly higher physical activity and no adverse changes in BMI or blood pressure, suggesting that this nutritional intervention may have beneficial pleiotropic effects.Trial registration: This study is registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02903433.

The association between arterial compliance, as assessed by PTC1 and PTC2 from radial artery waveforms, and age, sex, and race/ethnicity.

BACKGROUND: There is limited literature on differences in arterial compliance, as assessed from arterial pressure waveforms, with age, sex, and race/ethnicity. PTC1 and PTC2 are indices of arterial compliance, which are derived from a Windkessel model of the waveform, relatively easy to obtain, and associated with cardiovascular disease. METHOD: PTC1 and PTC2 were computed from radial artery waveforms from participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis at baseline and again 10 years later. We evaluated the association of PTC1, PTC2, and 10-year change in PTC1 and PTC2 with age, sex, and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Among 6245 participants in 2000-2002 (mean ±â€ŠSD of age was 62 ±â€Š10 years; 52% female; 38% White, 12% Chinese, 27% Black, and 23% Hispanic/Latino), means ±â€ŠSDs for PTC1 and PTC2 were 394 ±â€Š334 and 94 ±â€Š46 ms. After adjustment for cardiovascular disease risk factors, mean PTC2 was 1.1 ms (95% confidence interval: 1.0, 1.2) lower (arterial stiffness was greater) per year older age, was 22 ms (19, 24) lower for females, and varied by race/ethnicity ( P  < 0.001; e.g., 5 ms lower for Blacks compared with Whites), although the differences were smaller at older ages ( P  < 0.001 for age-sex, P  < 0.001 for age-race/ethnicity interactions). Among 3701 participants with repeat measurements in 2010-2012, arteries had stiffened (mean ±â€ŠSD 10-year decrease in PTC2: 13 ±â€Š46 ms) consistent with cross-sectional age-trend and tended to stiffen less for females and Blacks consistent with cross-sectional age-interactions. CONCLUSION: Differences in arterial compliance by age, sex, and race/ethnicity lend support to identify and act on societal factors that may drive health disparities.

Inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference: non-persistence and association with incident cardiovascular disease in the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

We investigated inter-arm systolic blood pressure (sIAD) difference, reproducibility, and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). We hypothesized that higher sIAD values have low prevalence and nonpersistence over years, but that CVD risk is higher starting from the time of first high absolute sIAD. In Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants (n = 6725, 53% female, 45-84 years old), Doppler systolic blood pressure (SBP) measurements were made in both arms (10-minute interval) thrice over 9.5 years. Proportional hazards for CVD (coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, peripheral arterial disease (PAD)) over 16.4 years were tested according to time-varying absolute inter-arm difference with covariates: (1) age, gender, race, and clinic; (2) model 1 plus height, heart rate, BP, antihypertensives, BMI, smoking status, lipids, lipid lowering medication, and diabetes. High sIAD was not persistent across exams. Maximum absolute sIAD ≥ 15 mmHg was found at least once in 815 persons. Maximum absolute sIAD had a graded relationship with incident stroke or PAD: 6.2% events; model 2 hazard ratio per 10 mmHg 1.34 (95% CI, 1.15-1.56) and this risk was approximately doubled for maximum absolute sIAD ≥ 15 mmHg vs 0-4 mmHg. Total CVD risk (18.4% events) was increased only for maximum absolute sIAD ≥25 mmHg. Associations with incident CVD did not differ for higher SBP in left vs right arm. A higher maximum absolute sIAD at any exam was associated with greater risk for stroke and PAD especially for values ≥ 15 mmHg, and ≥25 mmHg for other CVD. Measuring SBP between arms may help identify individuals at risk for CVD.

Effects of Different Allotments of Avocados on the Nutritional Status of Families: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

Avocados are a nutrient-dense plant-food, but limited trial-derived evidence exists about the effects of avocado intake on family nutritional status. We investigated the impact of two levels of avocado allotment, plus a standard nutrition education intervention on the nutritional status of Hispanic/Latino families. Seventy-two families consisting of at least three members of ≥5 years of age and residing in the same home, free of severe chronic disease, not on specific diets, and self-identified of Hispanic heritage, were randomized to one of two levels of avocado allotment (low = 3/week/family or high = 14/week/family) for 6 months plus 12 bi-weekly nutrition education sessions. The primary outcomes included change in a family's total energy and macro- and micronutrient intakes. Primary analysis was intention-to-treat with unpaired, two-sided t-tests to assess mean changes between groups at 6 months. At 6 months, the high avocado allotment group had a significant reduction in energy intake, carbohydrate, animal and vegetable protein, saturated and polyunsaturated fat, calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, iron, and vitamin D intakes (all p < 0.05). A high allotment of avocados significantly reduced self-reported energy intake by 29% kcal/family/day, compared to a 3% kcal/family/day reduction in families who received a low allotment. Culturally-appropriate plant-food interventions may alter the nutritional status of at-risk families.

The association between indices of blood pressure waveforms (PTC1 and PTC2) and incident heart failure.

OBJECTIVES: The radial artery pulse waveform is a continuous measure of pressure throughout the cardiac cycle, and thus can provide more information than just systolic and diastolic blood pressures. New indices based on a Windkessel model of the waveform, PTC1 and PTC2, are related to arterial compliance and add information for prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease, stroke, myocardial infarction) but their association with heart failure is unknown. METHODS: Among 6229 adults (mean age 62 years) from four race/ethnic groups who were initially free of clinical cardiovascular disease and heart failure in 2000-2002, we evaluated the associations of baseline PTC1 and PTC2 with incident heart failure. RESULTS: Mean ±â€Šstandard deviation PTC1 and PTC2 were 394 ±â€Š334 and 94 ±â€Š46 ms, respectively. During a median of 15.7 years follow-up, there were 357 heart failure events (148 with reduced, 150 with preserved, and 59 with unknown ejection fraction). After adjustment for traditional risk factors, the hazard ratio for heart failure per 1 standard deviation higher PTC2 was 0.73 (95% confidence interval: 0.63--0.85). Higher PTC2 was also significantly associated with lower risk of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (hazard ratio = 0.67; 95% confidence interval: 0.56--0.80). There was no evidence of a significant association between PTC2 and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction or between PTC1 and heart failure. CONCLUSION: The PTC2 measure of the radial artery pulse waveform may represent a novel phenotype related to heart failure, especially heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.

Associations of Perirenal Fat Thickness with Renal and Systemic Calcified Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: We investigated associations between perirenal fat thickness and atherosclerotic calcification in six different vascular beds. METHODS: Using a community-based cohort (n=3,919), perirenal fat thickness was estimated from computed tomography scans. It was classified as Q1 (the lowest quartile) to Q4 (the highest quartile) in each sex. Calcification in the carotid arteries, coronary arteries, thoracic aorta, abdominal aorta, iliac arteries, and renal arteries was evaluated. RESULTS: Perirenal fat thickness was associated with older age (P<0.01) and a higher prevalence of obesity, hypertension, and dyslipidemia (P<0.01 for all). Perirenal fat thickness was independently associated with renal arterial calcification even after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking history, and family history of heart diseases in first-degree relatives (odds ratio [OR] per quartile of perirenal fat thickness, 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09 to 1.44). Compared to Q1, the odds of renal arterial calcification in Q4 was about two times higher (OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.29 to 3.25). After adjustment for renal arterial calcification and atherosclerotic risk factors, the only other vascular bed where perirenal fat thickness showed a significant association with calcification was the abdominal aorta (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.23; P=0.045). CONCLUSION: Perirenal fat thickness was independently associated with vascular calcification in the renal artery and abdominal aorta.

The association between liver fat and systemic calcified atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The association of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with systemic calcified atherosclerosis, other than the coronary arteries, has not been clearly elucidated. We investigated the association between NAFLD and calcification in eight different vascular beds. METHODS: In a community-based cohort with computed tomography scans for carotid artery, coronary artery, thoracic aorta, abdominal aorta, iliac artery, renal artery, celiac trunk, and superior mesenteric artery, the association between NAFLD and arterial calcification was evaluated with adjustment for age, sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, obesity, current smoking status, and family history of heart disease in the first-degree relatives. RESULTS: In age- and sex-adjusted models, NAFLD was significantly associated with calcification in the coronary artery, carotid artery, thoracic aorta, celiac trunk, and superior mesenteric artery vascular beds (P < .05). However, adjustment for the traditional chronic venous disease risk factors attenuated the associations, except in the case of the thoracic aorta (odds ratio [OR], 1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-1.78) and celiac trunk (OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.16-3.65). In addition, NAFLD was independently associated with multiarterial calcification (four or more [OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.01-1.74], five or more [OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.09-1.97], and six or more [OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.09-2.30] of eight evaluated arterial segments). CONCLUSIONS: The association between NAFLD and arterial calcification is mainly mediated by conventional risk factors. The independent association between NAFLD and calcification in the thoracic aorta and celiac trunk as well as in a larger number of vascular beds needs confirmation in future prospective studies in diverse populations.

Ibogaine and Subjective Experience: Transformative States and Psychopharmacotherapy in the Treatment of Opioid Use Disorder.

This article examines the therapeutic potential of ibogaine, a powerful oneiric alkaloid derived from Tabernanthe iboga, through exploring the subjective experiences of 44 participants from two observational treatment studies for opioid use disorder. Following treatment with ibogaine HCl, the participants (Mexico, n = 30; New Zealand, n = 14) completed the States of Consciousness Questionnaire (SCQ) to quantify the magnitude of their psychotropic experience. Participants were asked to provide written transcripts of their experiences, with those supplied being analyzed thematically through an iterative process, to produce a set of coded themes. Mean SCQ scores in many domains exceeded 0.6, the cutoff score for a "complete mystical experience," with 43% of participants achieving this in more than five of seven domains. Qualitative data described multiple phenomenological themes, including auditory and visual phenomena. Ibogaine's strong oneiric action promoted cyclic visions leading to confronting realizations involving remorse and regret for participants' actions towards others, but also release from feelings of guilt and worthlessness. Many participants reported feeling a sense of spiritual transformation. We propose that the reported experiences support the meaningfulness of ibogaine's oneiric effects as a discrete element in its capacity for healing, which is distinct from pharmacological actions associated with reduced withdrawal and craving.

Predictors of Change in the Ankle Brachial Index with Exercise.

OBJECTIVE: A 20% or greater decrease in the ankle brachial index (ABI) with exercise is suggestive of peripheral artery disease (PAD), and could identify patients with an increased mortality risk. The predictors of a change in the ABI with exercise have received little attention. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional analysis. Two hundred and sixty five participants of the San Diego Population Study with a resting ABI between 0.90 and 1.10 performed 50 heel raises and immediately had their ABIs measured again. The relationship between the change in the ABI with exercise and multiple potential risk prediction variables were examined using linear regression. In addition, the categorical percent change in the ABI with exercise was analysed by multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 71.8 years, and 80.4% were female. At rest, the average ABI was 1.04 (SD 0.04) before and 0.94 (SD 0.13) after exercise; a mean decrease of 9.5%. In analyses of ABI change as a continuous variable, higher age, any smoking history, and a diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were associated with a significant decrease in the ABI with exercise (p = .01, .04, and .03, respectively). Categorical analyses of the risk factors associated with a 20% or greater ABI decrease with exercise confirmed these results. Congestive heart failure was associated with an increased ABI with exercise (p = .04) in continuous ABI change analyses only. CONCLUSIONS: Older age, a positive history of smoking, and a history of COPD were independently and significantly associated with a greater ABI decrease with exercise. These risk variables may help identify persons with subclinical PAD.

Association of cardiovascular disease risk factors with coronary artery calcium volume versus density.

OBJECTIVES: Recently, the density score of coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been shown to be associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events at any level of CAC volume. Whether risk factors for CAC volume and CAC density are similar or distinct is unknown. We sought to evaluate the associations of CVD risk factors with CAC volume and CAC density scores. METHODS: Baseline measurements from 6814 participants free of clinical CVD were collected for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Participants with detectable CAC (n=3398) were evaluated for this study. Multivariable linear regression models were used to evaluate independent associations of CVD risk factors with CAC volume and CAC density scores. RESULTS: Whereas most CVD risk factors were associated with higher CAC volume scores, many risk factors were associated with lower CAC density scores. For example, diabetes was associated with a higher natural logarithm (ln) transformed CAC volume score (standardised ß=0.44 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.58) ln-units) but a lower CAC density score (ß=-0.07 (-0.12 to -0.02) density units). Chinese, African-American and Hispanic race/ethnicity were each associated with lower ln CAC volume scores (ß=-0.62 (-0.83to -0.41), -0.52 (-0.64 to -0.39) and -0.40 (-0.55 to -0.26) ln-units, respectively) and higher CAC density scores (ß= 0.41 (0.34 to 0.47), 0.18 (0.12 to 0.23) and 0.21 (0.15 to 0.26) density units, respectively) relative to non-Hispanic White. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort free of clinical CVD, CVD risk factors are differentially associated with CAC volume and density scores, with many CVD risk factors inversely associated with the CAC density score after controlling for the CAC volume score. These findings suggest complex associations between CVD risk factors and these components of CAC.

Coronary Artery Calcium Volume and Density: Potential Interactions and Overall Predictive Value: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine the possibility of interactions between coronary artery calcium (CAC) volume or CAC density with each other, and with age, sex, ethnicity, the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score, diabetes status, and renal function by estimated glomerular filtration rate, and, using differing CAC scores, to determine the improvement over the ASCVD risk score in risk prediction and reclassification. BACKGROUND: In MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), CAC volume was positively and CAC density inversely associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. METHODS: A total of 3,398 MESA participants free of clinical CVD but with prevalent CAC at baseline were followed for incident CVD events. RESULTS: During a median 11.0 years of follow-up, there were 390 CVD events, 264 of which were coronary heart disease (CHD). With each SD increase of ln CAC volume (1.62), risk of CHD increased 73% (p < 0.001) and risk of CVD increased 61% (p < 0.001). Conversely, each SD increase of CAC density (0.69) was associated with 28% lower risk of CHD (p < 0.001) and 25% lower risk of CVD (p < 0.001). CAC density was inversely associated with risk at all levels of CAC volume (i.e., no interaction was present). In multivariable Cox models, significant interactions were present for CAC volume with age and ASCVD risk score for both CHD and CVD, and CAC density with ASCVD risk score for CVD. Hazard ratios were generally stronger in the lower risk groups. Receiver-operating characteristic area under the curve and Net Reclassification Index analyses showed better prediction by CAC volume than by Agatston, and the addition of CAC density to CAC volume further significantly improved prediction. CONCLUSIONS: The inverse association between CAC density and incident CHD and CVD events is robust across strata of other CVD risk factors. Added to the ASCVD risk score, CAC volume and density provided the strongest prediction for CHD and CVD events, and the highest correct reclassification.

Femoral Artery Atherosclerosis Is Associated With Physical Function Across the Spectrum of the Ankle-Brachial Index: The San Diego Population Study.

BACKGROUND: The ankle-brachial index (ABI) is inadequate to detect early-stage atherosclerotic disease, when interventions to prevent functional decline may be the most effective. We determined associations of femoral artery atherosclerosis with physical functioning, across the spectrum of the ABI, and within the normal ABI range. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 2007-2011, 1103 multiethnic men and women participated in the San Diego Population Study, and completed all components of the summary performance score. Using Doppler ultrasound, superficial and common femoral intima media thickness and plaques were ascertained. Logistic regression was used to assess associations of femoral atherosclerosis with the summary performance score and its individual components. Models were adjusted for demographics, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, lipids, and kidney function. In adjusted models, among participants with a normal-range ABI (1.00-1.30), the highest tertile of superficial intima media thickness was associated with lower odds of a perfect summary performance score of 12 (odds ratio=0.56 [0.36, 0.87], P=0.009), and lower odds of a 4-m walk score of 4 (0.34 [0.16, 0.73], P=0.006) and chair rise score of 4 (0.56 [0.34, 0.94], P=0.03). Plaque presence (0.53 [0.29, 0.99], P=0.04) and greater total plaque burden (0.61 [0.43, 0.87], P=0.006) were associated with worse 4-m walk performance in the normal-range ABI group. Higher superficial intima media thickness was associated with lower summary performance score in all individuals (P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that use of femoral artery atherosclerosis measures may be effective in individuals with a normal-range ABI, especially, for example, those with diabetes mellitus or a family history of peripheral artery disease, when detection can lead to earlier intervention to prevent functional declines and improve quality of life.

Peripheral Artery Disease and Aortic Disease.

We reviewed published MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) study articles concerning peripheral arterial disease, subclavian stenosis (SS), abdominal aortic calcium (AAC), and thoracic artery calcium (TAC). Important findings include, compared to non-Hispanic whites, lower ankle-brachial index (ABI) and more SS in African Americans, and higher ABI and less SS in Hispanic and Chinese Americans. Abnormal ABI and brachial pressure differences were associated with other subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) measures. Both very high and low ABI independently predicted increased CVD events. Looking at aortic measures, TAC and AAC were significantly associated with other subclinical CVD measures. Comparisons of AAC with coronary artery calcium (CAC) showed that both were less common in ethnic minority groups. However, although CAC was much more common in men than in women in multivariable analysis, this was not true of AAC. Also, when AAC and CAC were adjusted for each other in multivariable analysis, there was a stronger association for AAC than for CAC with CVD and total mortality.

Ankle-brachial index predicts change over time in functional status in the San Diego Population Study.

BACKGROUND: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) affects millions of people, both in the U.S. and worldwide. Even when asymptomatic, PAD and the ankle-brachial index (ABI), the major clinical diagnostic criterion for PAD, are associated with decreased functional status and quality of life, as well as mobility impairment. Whether the ABI or change in the ABI predicts decline in functional status over time has not been previously assessed in a population-based setting. METHODS: Participants were 812 non-Hispanic white, African American, Hispanic, and Asian men and women from the San Diego Population Study (SDPS) who attended a baseline examination (1994-1998), and follow-up clinic examination approximately 11 years later. The Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form (SF-36) was obtained at both the baseline and follow-up examinations, and the summary performance score (SPS) at the follow-up examination. Associations of the baseline ABI and clinically relevant change in the ABI (<-0.15 vs ≥-0.15) with change in SF-36 scores over time were assessed using growth curve models, a type of mixed model that accounts for within participant correlation of measurements over time, and using linear regression for SPS. Models were adjusted for baseline age, sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, ever smoking, physical activity, hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia. RESULTS: Mean ± standard deviation (SD) for the baseline ABI was 1.11 ± 0.10, and 50.8 ± 9.0 for the baseline Physical Component Score (PCS), 50.1 ± 9.5 for the baseline Mental Component Score (MCS), and 11.2 ± 1.9 for the SPS at the follow-up examination. In fully adjusted models, each SD lower of the baseline ABI was significantly associated with an average decrease over time of 0.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], -1.1 to -0.1; P = .02) units on SF-36 PCS. Each SD lower of the baseline ABI was also significantly associated with an average decrease over time of 1.2 units (95% CI, -2.3 to -0.2; P = .02) on the SF-36 physical functioning subscale, and a decrease of 1.3 units (95% CI, -2.3 to -0.3; P = .01) on the SF-36 energy/vitality subscale in fully adjusted models. Baseline ABI was not significantly associated with change in the SF-36 MCS over time, or the SPS at the follow-up examination. Change in the ABI was not associated with SF-36 PCS, MCS, or the SPS. CONCLUSIONS: In this multiethnic population of healthy middle-aged community-living men and women, we showed that participants with a lower baseline ABI had declines in functional status over 11 years. Findings suggest that small differences in the ABI, even within the normal range, may identify subclinical lower extremity PAD, which in turn may help to identify individuals at risk for declining functional status with age.

A genetic risk score comprising known venous thromboembolism loci is associated with chronic venous disease in a multi-ethnic cohort.

BACKGROUND: Chronic venous disease is common and shares some risk factors with venous thromboembolism (VTE). Several genetic loci have been discovered and well-replicated for VTE in European descent populations. We examined associations of a genetic risk score (GRS), comprising known VTE loci, with chronic venous disease. METHODS: The San Diego Population Study (SDPS) is a multi-ethnic cohort that evaluated 2404 men and women aged 29-91 from 1994 to 1998 for chronic venous disease. The current study includes 1447 participants genotyped for 33 variants in 22 established VTE risk loci. Using these variants, unweighted and weighted GRS were constructed. Logistic regression was used to examine associations with venous disease. RESULTS: In non-Hispanic whites, African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asians, each standard deviation increment higher of the unweighted 33-SNP GRS was associated with a 1.45-fold (95% CI (1.26, 1.67)), 1.74-fold (1.18, 2.55), a 1.80-fold (1.30, 2.51), and 1.88-fold (1.30, 2.73) greater odds, respectively, for moderate plus severe disease. The difference in c-statistics was significant between a known venous risk factor model and a model adding the 33-SNP GRS for whites (p=0.008), African-Americans (0.03), and Hispanics (p=0.04), with marginal significance in Asians (p=0.06). CONCLUSIONS: GRS comprising variants primarily from VTE findings in European descent populations were associated with chronic venous disease across all race/ethnic groups, and contributed significantly to prediction, indicating some level of generalizability to other race/ethnic groups. Future work should focus on more in depth examination of racial/ethnic group genetic architecture in relation to chronic venous disease.

Global and regional burden of death and disability from peripheral artery disease: 21 world regions, 1990 to 2010.

A comprehensive and systematic assessment of disability and mortality due to lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) is lacking. Therefore, we estimated PAD deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and years of life lost in 21 regions worldwide for 1990 and 2010. We used the GBD (Global Burden of Diseases 2010) study causes of death database, and the cause of death ensemble modeling approach to assess levels and trends of PAD deaths and years of life lost over time, by age, sex, and region. Assessment of DALYs employed estimates of PAD prevalence from systematic reviews of epidemiologic data using a Bayesian meta-regression method. In 1990, the age-specific PAD death rate per 100,000 population ranged from 0.05 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.03 to 0.09) among those 40 to 44 years old to 16.63 (95% CI: 10.47 to 25.31) among the 80+ years group. In 2010, the corresponding estimates were 0.07 (95% CI: 0.04 to 0.13) and 28.71 (95% CI: 18.3 to 43.06). Death rates increased consistently with age in 1990 and 2010, and the rates in 2010 were higher than they were in 1990 in all age categories. The largest relative change in median death rate of +6.03 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.50 to 11.85) was noted in the Asia Pacific-High Income region and was largely driven by higher rates in women: +17.36 (95% CI: 1.79 to 32.01) versus +1.25 (95% CI: 0.13 to 2.39) in men. The overall relative change in median DALYs was larger in developing nations than in developed nations: 1.15 (95% CI: 0.80 to 1.66) versus 0.77 (95% CI: 0.55 to 1.08). Of note, the overall relative change in median DALYs was higher among both men and women in developing versus developed countries: men: 1.18 (95% CI: 0.82 to 1.65) versus 0.51 (95% CI: 0.30 to 0.81), and women: 1.11 (95% CI: 0.58 to 2.02) versus 1 (95% CI: 0.67 to 1.47). Within developed nations, the overall relative change in median DALY rates was larger in women than in men: +1.00 (95% CI: 0.67 to 1.47) versus +0.51 (95% CI: 0.3 to 0.81). Similarly, the overall relative change in median years of life lost rate in developed countries was larger in women than in men: +1.64 (95% CI: 1.17 to 2.34) versus +0.53 (95% CI: 0.24 to 0.94). The relative increases in median years lived with nonfatal disease disability (YLD) rates in men and women were larger in developing versus developed nations: men: 0.87 (95% CI: 0.59 to 1.2) versus 0.49 (95% CI: 0.29 to 0.73), and women: 0.75 (95% CI: 0.46 to 1.09) versus 0.49 (95% CI: 0.29 to 0.73). Disability and mortality associated with PAD has increased over the last 20 years, and this increase in burden has been greater among women than among men. In addition, the burden of PAD is no longer confined to the elderly population, but now involves young adults. Furthermore, the relative increase in PAD burden in developing regions of the world is striking and exceeds the increases in developed nations.

Global and regional burden of aortic dissection and aneurysms: mortality trends in 21 world regions, 1990 to 2010.

A comprehensive and systematic assessment of the global burden of aortic aneurysms (AA) has been lacking. Therefore, we estimated AA regional deaths and years of life lost (YLL) in 21 regions worldwide for 1990 and 2010. We used the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2010 study causes of death database and the cause of death ensemble modeling approach to assess levels and trends of AA deaths by age, sex, and GBD region. The global AA death rate per 100,000 population was 2.49 (95% CI: 1.78 to 3.27) in 1990 and 2.78 (95% CI: 2.04 to 3.62) in 2010. In 1990 and 2010, the highest mean death rates were in Australasia and Western Europe: 8.82 (95% CI: 6.96 to 10.79) and 7.69 (95% CI: 6.11 to 9.57) in 1990 and 8.38 (95% CI: 6.48 to 10.86) and 7.68 (95% CI: 6.13 to 9.54) in 2010. YLL rates by GBD region mirrored the mortality rate pattern. Overall, men had higher AA death rates than women: 2.86 (95% CI: 1.90 to 4.22) versus 2.12 (95% CI: 1.33 to 3.00) in 1990 and 3.40 (95% CI: 2.26 to 5.01) versus 2.15 (95% CI: 1.44 to 2.89) in 2010. The relative change in median death rate was +0.22 (95% CI: 0.10 to 0.33) in developed nations versus +0.71 (95% CI: 0.28 to 1.40) in developing nations. The smallest relative changes in median death rate were noted in North America high income, Central Europe, Western Europe, and Australasia, with estimates of +0.07 (95% CI: -0.26 to 0.37), +0.08 (95% CI: -0.02 to 0.23), +0.09 (95% CI: -0.02 to 0.21), and +0.22 (95% CI: -0.08 to 0.46), respectively. The largest increases were in Asia Pacific high income, Southeast Asia, Latin America tropical, Oceania, South Asia, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa. Women rather than men drove the increase in the Asia Pacific high-income region: the relative change in median rates was +2.92 (95% CI: 0.6 to 4.35) versus +1.05 (95% CI: 0.61 to 2.42). In contrast to high-income regions, the observed pattern in developing regions suggests increasing AA burden, which portends future health system challenges in these regions.

Estimation of global and regional incidence and prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysms 1990 to 2010.

The global burden of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has not been studied previously. Such information is important given the emergence of cardiovascular diseases in developing countries. We conducted a systematic literature review and estimated the global and regional incidence and prevalence of AAA in 21 world regions by age and sex. The search for prevalence and incidence of AAA using standard clinical and epidemiological terms was conducted using MEDLINE (1950 to 2010), EMBASE (1980 to 2010), AMED (1985 to 2010), CINAHL (1982 to 2010), and LILACS (2008 to 2010). Data abstracted from the systematic review served as priors for Bayesian meta-regression analyses. The analysis drew from 26 high-quality studies to estimate AAA prevalence and incidence. In 1990, the global age-specific prevalence rate per 100,000 ranged from 8.43 (95% CI: 7.03 to 10.14) in the 40 to 44 years age group to 2,422.53 (95% CI: 2,298.63 to 2,562.25) in the 75 to 79 years age group; the corresponding range in 2010 was 7.88 (95% CI: 6.54 to 9.59) to 2,274.82 (95% CI: 2,149.77 to 2,410.17). Prevalence was higher in developed versus developing nations, and the rates within each development stratum decreased between 1990 and 2010. Globally, the age-specific annual incidence rate per 100,000 in 1990 ranged from 0.89 (95% CI: 0.66 to 1.17) in 40 to 44 years age group to 176.08 (95% CI: 162.72 to 190.28) in the 75 to 79 years age group. In 2010, this range was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.61 to 1.11) to 164.57 (95% CI: 152.20 to 178.78). The highest prevalence in 1990 was in Australasia and North America high income regions: 382.65 (95% CI: 356.27 to 410.88) and 300.59 (95% CI: 280.93 to 321.54), respectively. Australasia had the highest prevalence in 2010, although the prevalence decreased to 310.27 (95% CI: 289.01 to 332.94). Regional prevalence increased in Oceania, tropical Latin America, Asia Pacific high income, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Central SSA, South Asia, Western SSA, and Central Asia. AAA global prevalence and incidence rates have decreased over the last 20 years. However, rising rates in some regions highlight the need for policies to enhance global disease surveillance and prevention.

Abdominal aortic calcium, coronary artery calcium, and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive value of abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) independent of coronary artery calcium (CAC). APPROACH AND RESULTS: We evaluated the association of AAC with CVD in 1974 men and women aged 45 to 84 years randomly selected from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants who had complete AAC and CAC data from computed tomographic scans. AAC and CAC were each divided into following 3 percentile categories: 0 to 50th, 51st to 75th, and 76th to 100th. During a mean of 5.5 years of follow-up, there were 50 hard coronary heart disease events, 83 hard CVD events, 30 fatal CVD events, and 105 total deaths. In multivariable-adjusted Cox models including both AAC and CAC, comparing the fourth quartile with the ≤ 50th percentile, AAC and CAC were each significantly and independently predictive of hard coronary heart disease and hard CVD, with hazard ratios ranging from 2.4 to 4.4. For CVD mortality, the hazard ratio was highly significant for the fourth quartile of AAC, 5.9 (P=0.01), whereas the association for the fourth quartile of CAC (hazard ratio, 2.1) was not significant. For total mortality, the fourth quartile hazard ratio for AAC was 2.7 (P=0.001), and for CAC, it was 1.9, P=0.04. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed improvement for both AAC and CAC separately, although improvement was greater with CAC for hard coronary heart disease and hard CVD, and greater with AAC for CVD mortality and total mortality. Sensitivity analyses defining AAC and CAC as continuous variables mirrored these results. CONCLUSIONS: AAC and CAC predicted hard coronary heart disease and hard CVD events independent of one another. Only AAC was independently related to CVD mortality, and AAC showed a stronger association than CAC with total mortality.