Addressing ocean planning challenges in a highly crowded sea space: a case study for the regional sea of Catalonia (Western Mediterranean).

Background: This study performs an exploratory analysis of current-future sustainability challenges for ocean planning for the regional seas of Catalonia located in the Western Mediterranean (Spain). Methods: To address the challenges we develop an Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP)-oriented geodatabase of maritime activities and deploy three spatial models: 1) an analysis of regional contribution to the 30% protection commitment with Biodiversity Strategy 2030; 2) a spatial Maritime Use Conflict (MUC) analysis to address current and future maritime activities interactions and 3) the StressorGenerator QGIS application to locate current and anticipate future sea areas of highest anthropogenic stress. Results & Conclusions: Results show that the i) study area is one of the most protected sea areas in the Mediterranean (44-51% of sea space protected); ii) anthropogenic stressors are highest in 1-4 nautical miles coastal areas, where maritime activities agglomerate, in the Gulf of Roses and Gulf of Saint Jordi. iii) According to the available datasets commercial fishery is causing highest conflict score inside protected areas. Potential new aquaculture sites are causing highest conflict in Internal Waters and the high potential areas for energy cause comparably low to negligible spatial conflicts with other uses. We discuss the added value of performing regional MSP exercises and define five challenges for regional ocean sustainability, namely: Marine protection beyond percentage, offshore wind energy: a new space demand, crowded coastal areas, multi-level governance of the regional sea and MSP knowledge gaps.

Development and analysis of a geospatial database for maritime spatial planning in Bangladesh.

In this research we collect, prepare and analyze a geospatial database of maritime activities located in the northern Bay of Bengal with the final aim to simulate maritime spatial planning (MSP) - ready information source for future sectoral and multi-sector MSP in Bangladesh. The database is composed of 28 anthropogenic and environmental layers categorized into seven Blue Economy sectors. The database is analyzed with a set of geospatial models aimed at understanding the intensity distribution of human activities at sea and the potential marine use conflicts emerging from the aggregation of human activities. Ecological resources were characterized in terms of marine mammals, lobsters, commercially important and threatened fish species, and pelagic birds and mapped as biodiversity hotspots using geographic cluster analysis. Results show that the most intensely used sea areas are located along the northeastern coast of Bangladesh, as well as in the Swatch of No Ground (SoNG) area, with maximum Marine Use Intensity (MUI) scores ranging from 5 to 8. Offshore waters of Saint Martin's Island have higher MUI scores (≥ 5) as well. The pairwise spatial conflict analysis shows that nature protection sites particularly SoNG Marine Protected Area (MPA), Nijhum Dwip Marine Reserve (MR), and Saint Martin's Island MPA are exposed to the high Marine Use Conflicts (MUC) induced by fishing and shipping activities. Fishing operations generate the highest MUC value (MUC = 30) in SoNG MPA, whereas shipping activities produce the highest MUC value (MUC = 24) in Nijhum Dwip MR. Both of the MPAs exhibit 6 to 12 MUC scores induced by shipping. The proposed database together with the illustrated analytical techniques used in this study and key findings can provide the first understanding of the priorities for Ecosystem Based Management of Bangladesh's marine space and provide valuable insights on the urgency for MSP process in the country. The study concludes with an outlook on the utility of the database for future analysis.

Spatial and temporal analysis of cumulative environmental effects of offshore wind farms in the North Sea basin.

The North Sea basin is one of the busiest maritime areas globally with a considerable number of anthropogenic pressures impacting the functioning of the marine ecosystem. Due to growing EU ambitions for the deployment of large offshore wind farm projects (OWF), as part of the 2050 renewable energy roadmap, there is a key need for a holistic understanding of OWF potential impacts on the marine ecosystem. We propose a holistic Cumulative Effect Assessment methodology, applied using a geo-spatial open-source software, to assess impacts of OWF related pressures on selected seabed habitats, fish, seabird and mammal species. We take into account pressures specific to the three OWF development phases, spanning 1999-2050, for the entire North Sea basin. Our results underline 2022 as the peak year of cumulative impacts for the approved OWFs, followed by a considerable increase in potential impacts of the planned 212GWs, by 2050. The spatio-temporal analysis of the OWF environmental impacts presents the shift between highly impacted areas over the studied timeline and distinguishes between concentrated areas of high impacts (S-E of UK) and dispersed areas of high impacts (Germany). Our results can inform decision-makers and the OWF industry in a joint effort to mitigate the environmental impacts of future large OWF developments.

Multi-objective zoning for aquaculture and biodiversity.

Aquaculture is the fastest growing food production industry in the world yet research and guidance demonstrating strategic multi-objective zoning for sector expansion is scarce. Quantifying and mitigating conflicts and impact on sensitive coastal environments through jointly-optimized objectives for aquaculture and biodiversity simultaneously has not been tested yet. We here develop and evaluate six alternative planning scenarios for one of the European Union's highest priority bivalve shellfish aquaculture areas, the Emilia-Romagna Region in Italy. We i) develop an aquaculture profitability surface as a function of the distance from main ports, and in parallel build a fine-scale aquaculture suitability distribution surface for important commercial species using multi-criteria analysis; ii) prioritize protected areas for biodiversity while testing how different considerations of human impacts influence priorities; iii) simultaneously plan for aquaculture and biodiversity while minimizing impacts on other maritime activities. We compare results from different scenarios according to how well they capture suitable aquaculture habitats and minimize impacts. We introduce a new evaluation method for scenario comparison in spatial optimization using a nearest-neighbor analysis for spatial pattern similarities. Lastly, we test the "value of information" provided by our investment in developing the fine-scale suitability surface to improve efficiencies. We find that an integrated multi-objective zoning approach, which simultaneously optimizes for biodiversity and aquaculture, supports more efficient planning than traditional sector specific growth strategies. We also discovered that the fine-scale suitability model delivered a 5% more efficient solution than the simple distance function, highlighting the role of proxy cost surfaces and diminished returns from investing in comprehensive habitat suitability analysis in regions without much variation in key parameters. We offer evidence of improved efficiency and practical guidance for integrated planning in Blue Growth agendas. Our analysis can be applied in any context where multiple objectives occur for aquaculture sector growth and biodiversity conservation.

The effects of COVID-19 induced lockdown measures on maritime settings of a coastal region.

The spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) caused an unprecedented implementation of lockdown measures across world's nations. Veneto Region, located in North-Eastern Adriatic Sea was one of the first maritime regions in Italy and Europe subjected to progressive lockdown restrictions. We systematically analyse the effects of national lockdown policies on maritime settings of the region using Automated Identification System (AIS) data from fishing vessels, passenger ships, tanker and cargo vessels collected through the Aqua Alta Oceanographic Tower (AAOT). We derive consequences on vessel activities during the March-April 2020 lockdown, by using a data-driven, comparative spatio-temporal analysis of vessel trajectories. Results show that compared to the same period of 2017, vessel activity were reduced by 69% during the lockdown, fishing activities reduced by 84% and passenger traffic by 78%. We register a restart of fishing activity in the third week of April 2020. We suggest that the presented conceptual and spatial assessment protocol can guide future research on environmental and socio-economic effects of COVID-19 on marine realms and contribute to further interdisciplinary research with other marine scientific fields.

A modelling approach for offshore wind farm feasibility with respect to ecosystem-based marine spatial planning.

Demand for renewable energy is increasing steadily and regulated by national and international policies. Offshore wind energy sector has been clearly the fastest in its development among other options, and development of new wind farms requires large ocean space. Therefore, there is a need of efficient spatial planning process, including the site selection constrained by technical (wind resource, coastal distance, seafloor) and environmental (impacts) factors and competence of uses. We present a novel approach, using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN), for an integrated spatially explicit site feasibility identification for offshore wind farms. Our objectives are to: (i) develop a spatially explicit model that integrates the technical, economic, environmental and social dimensions; (ii) operationalize the BBN model; (iii) implement the model at local (Basque Country) and regional (North East Atlantic and Western Mediterranean), and (iv) develop and analyse future scenarios for wind farm installation in a local case study. Results demonstrated a total of 1% (23 km2) of moderate feasibility areas in local scaled analysis, compared to 4% of (21,600 km2) very high, and 5% (30,000 km2) of high feasibility in larger scale analysis. The main challenges were data availability and discretization when trying to expand the model from local to regional level. The use of BBN models to determine the feasibility of offshore wind farm areas has been demonstrated adequate and possible, both at local and regional scales, allowing managers to take management decisions regarding marine spatial planning when including different activities, environmental problems and technological constraints.

Tackling challenges for Mediterranean sustainable coastal tourism: An ecosystem service perspective.

Coastal tourism is a growing industry sector in the Mediterranean Basin. This and the other human activities occurring along the coastline share space and resources, leading to conflicts for divergent uses. Moreover, the overexploitation of natural resources degrades and depletes coastal habitats, with negative feedback effects for all human activities. Hence, both tourism and the other human activities have to consider their dependence on coastal ecosystem services, and act at technical and policy level to reach a compromise that preserves natural resources in the long term. Here we provide a conceptual framework illustrating the complex relationships and trade-offs among threats from coastal tourism and from other human activities and coastal ecosystem services, with a focus on cultural ones. We discuss the negative feedbacks on tourism development and provide examples of geospatial analysis on cumulative threats generated by other human activities and affecting tourism itself. The proposed conceptual framework and the threat analysis aim at highlighting the negative feedback effects of human driven threats on the development of Mediterranean coastal tourism, through an ecosystem service perspective. Both tools provide valuable insight for supporting decision makers and planners in achieving integrated coastal management, with a focus on sustainable tourism.

Exploring Multi-Use potentials in the Euro-Mediterranean sea space.

European seas are experiencing rapid development. The anthropogenic demand for marine resources and space exerts the need for novel concepts for sustainable resource exploitation and smart space allocation. Multi-Use (MU) is an emerging concept to overcome spatial claims and support Blue Growth, however its actual potentials and current status of implementation in different sea basins is to a large extent unexplored. An analytical framework using a mixed method approach is proposed for the identification and analysis of MU potentialities in eight EU countries of the Euro-Mediterranean sea basin. The paper addresses opportunities and challenges of ten existing and potential MU combinations driven by three maritime sectors: tourism, renewable energy and Oil & Gas industry. Opportunities and challenges for MU development were presented in terms of drivers, added values, barriers and impacts. Results show that highest potential for MU development are related to tourism-driven MU combinations (e.g. pescatourism), but also emerging MU potentials exist related to Floating Offshore Wind energy and aquaculture (Gulf of Lion) and the re-use of Oil & Gas decommissioned platforms (Northern-Central Adriatic Sea). Findings were discussed for their geospatial distribution and their policy, socio-economic, technical and environmental boundary conditions. Recommendations on actions to foster MU development in the Euro-Mediterranean sea space are provided.

Tools4MSP: an open source software package to support Maritime Spatial Planning.

This paper presents the Tools4MSP software package, a Python-based Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) for geospatial analysis in support of Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) and marine environmental management. The suite was initially developed within the ADRIPLAN data portal, that has been recently upgraded into the Tools4MSP Geoplatform (data.tools4msp.eu), an integrated web platform that supports MSP through the application of different tools, e.g., collaborative geospatial modelling of cumulative effects assessment (CEA) and marine use conflict (MUC) analysis. The package can be used as stand-alone library or as collaborative webtool, providing user-friendly interfaces appropriate to decision-makers, regional authorities, academics and MSP stakeholders. An effective MSP-oriented integrated system of web-based software, users and services is proposed. It includes four components: the Tools4MSP Geoplatform for interoperable and collaborative sharing of geospatial datasets and for MSP-oriented analysis, the Tools4MSP package as stand-alone library for advanced geospatial and statistical analysis, the desktop applications to simplify data curation and the third party data repositories for multidisciplinary and multilevel geospatial datasets integration. The paper presents an application example of the Tools4MSP GeoNode plugin and an example of Tools4MSP stand-alone library for CEA in the Adriatic Sea. The Tools4MSP and the developed software have been released as FOSS under the GPL 3 license and are currently under further development.

Multi-objective spatial tools to inform maritime spatial planning in the Adriatic Sea.

This research presents a set of multi-objective spatial tools for sea planning and environmental management in the Adriatic Sea Basin. The tools address four objectives: 1) assessment of cumulative impacts from anthropogenic sea uses on environmental components of marine areas; 2) analysis of sea use conflicts; 3) 3-D hydrodynamic modelling of nutrient dispersion (nitrogen and phosphorus) from riverine sources in the Adriatic Sea Basin and 4) marine ecosystem services capacity assessment from seabed habitats based on an ES matrix approach. Geospatial modelling results were illustrated, analysed and compared on country level and for three biogeographic subdivisions, Northern-Central-Southern Adriatic Sea. The paper discusses model results for their spatial implications, relevance for sea planning, limitations and concludes with an outlook towards the need for more integrated, multi-functional tools development for sea planning.

Addressing uncertainty in modelling cumulative impacts within maritime spatial planning in the Adriatic and Ionian region.

Maritime spatial planning (MSP) is envisaged as a tool to apply an ecosystem-based approach to the marine and coastal realms, aiming at ensuring that the collective pressure of human activities is kept within acceptable limits. Cumulative impacts (CI) assessment can support science-based MSP, in order to understand the existing and potential impacts of human uses on the marine environment. A CI assessment includes several sources of uncertainty that can hinder the correct interpretation of its results if not explicitly incorporated in the decision-making process. This study proposes a three-level methodology to perform a general uncertainty analysis integrated with the CI assessment for MSP, applied to the Adriatic and Ionian Region (AIR). We describe the nature and level of uncertainty with the help of expert judgement and elicitation to include all of the possible sources of uncertainty related to the CI model with assumptions and gaps related to the case-based MSP process in the AIR. Next, we use the results to tailor the global uncertainty analysis to spatially describe the uncertainty distribution and variations of the CI scores dependent on the CI model factors. The results show the variability of the uncertainty in the AIR, with only limited portions robustly identified as the most or the least impacted areas under multiple model factors hypothesis. The results are discussed for the level and type of reliable information and insights they provide to decision-making. The most significant uncertainty factors are identified to facilitate the adaptive MSP process and to establish research priorities to fill knowledge gaps for subsequent planning cycles. The method aims to depict the potential CI effects, as well as the extent and spatial variation of the data and scientific uncertainty; therefore, this method constitutes a suitable tool to inform the potential establishment of the precautionary principle in MSP.

Mapping the ecosystem service delivery chain: Capacity, flow, and demand pertaining to aesthetic experiences in mountain landscapes.

Accounting for the spatial connectivity between the provision of ecosystem services (ES) and their beneficiaries (supply-benefit chain) is fundamental to understanding ecosystem functioning and its management. However, the interrelationships of the specific chain links within ecosystems and the actual benefits that flow from natural landscapes to surrounding land have rarely been analyzed. We present a spatially explicit model for the analysis of one cultural ecosystem service (aesthetic experience), which integrates the complete ecosystem service delivery chain for Puez-Geisler Nature Park (Italy): (1) The potential service stock (ES capacity) relies on an expert-based land use ranking matrix, (2) the actual supply (ES flow) is based on visibility properties of observation points along recreational routes, (3) the beneficiaries of the service (ES demand) are derived from socioeconomic data as a measure of the visitation rate to the recreation location, and (4) the supply-demand relationship (ES budget) addresses the spatially explicit oversupply and undersupply of ES. The results indicate that potential ES stocks are substantially higher in core and buffer zones of protected areas than in surrounding land owing to the specific landscape composition. ES flow maps reveal service delivery to 80% of the total area studied, with the highest actual service supply to locations with long and open vistas. ES beneficiary analyses show the highest demand for aesthetic experiences in all-season tourist destinations like Val Badia and Val Gardena, where both recreational amenity and overnight stays are equally high. ES budget maps identify ES hot and cold spots in terms of ES delivery, and they highlight ES undersupply in nature protection buffer zones although they are characterized by highest ES capacity. We show how decision/policy makers can use the presented methodology to plan landscape protection measures and develop specific regulation strategies for visitors based on the ES delivery chain concept.

Short-term low-severity spring grassland fire impacts on soil extractable elements and soil ratios in Lithuania.

Spring grassland fires are common in boreal areas as a consequence of slash and burn agriculture used to remove dry grass to increase soil nutrient properties and crop production. However, few works have investigated fire impacts on these grassland ecosystems, especially in the immediate period after the fire. The objective of this work was to study the short-term impacts of a spring grassland fire in Lithuania. Four days after the fire we established a 400m2 sampling grid within the burned area and in an adjacent unburned area with the same topographical, hydrological and pedological characteristics. We collected topsoil samples immediately after the fire (0months), 2, 5, 7 and 9months after the fire. We analysed soil pH, electrical conductivity (EC), major nutrients including calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), sodium (Na), and potassium (K), and the minor elements aluminium (Al), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe) and zinc (Zn). We also calculated the soil Na and K adsorption ratio (SPAR), Ca:Mg and Ca:Al. The results showed that this low-severity grassland fire significantly decreased soil pH, Al, and Mn but increased EC, Ca, Mg, and K,. There was no effect on Na, Fe, and Zn. There was a decrease of EC, Ca, Mg, and Na from 0months after the fire until 7months after the fire, with an increase during the last sampling period. Fire did not significantly affect SPAR. Ca:Mg decreased significantly immediately after the fire, but not to critical levels. Ca:Al increased after the fire, reducing the potential effects of Al on plants. Overall, fire impacts were mainly limited to the immediate period after the fire.

Assessing oil spill sensitivity in unsheltered coastal environments: A case study for Lithuanian-Russian coasts, South-eastern Baltic Sea.

This study presents a series of oil spill indexes for the characterization of physical and biological sensitivity in unsheltered coastal environments. The case study extends over 237 km of Lithuanian-Russian coastal areas subjected to multiple oil spill threats. Results show that 180 km of shoreline have environmental sensitivity index (ESI) of score 3. Natural clean-up processes depending on (a) shoreline sinuosity, (b) orientation and (c) wave exposure are favourable on 72 km of shoreline. Vulnerability analysis from pre-existing Kravtsovskoye D6 platform oil spill scenarios indicates that 15.1 km of the Curonian Spit have high impact probability. The highest seafloor sensitivity within the 20 m isobath is at the Vistula Spit and Curonian Spit, whereas biological sensitivity is moderate over the entire study area. The paper concludes with the importance of harmonized datasets and methodologies for transboundary oil spill impact assessment.