Estimating time-varying cholera transmission and oral cholera vaccine effectiveness in Haiti and Cameroon, 2021-2023.

In 2023, cholera affected approximately 1 million people and caused more than 5000 deaths globally, predominantly in low-income and conflict settings. In recent years, the number of new cholera outbreaks has grown rapidly. Further, ongoing cholera outbreaks have been exacerbated by conflict, climate change, and poor infrastructure, resulting in prolonged crises. As a result, the demand for treatment and intervention is quickly outpacing existing resource availability. Prior to improved water and sanitation systems, cholera, a disease primarily transmitted via contaminated water sources, also routinely ravaged high-income countries. Crumbling infrastructure and climate change are now putting new locations at risk - even in high-income countries. Thus, understanding the transmission and prevention of cholera is critical. Combating cholera requires multiple interventions, the two most common being behavioral education and water treatment. Two-dose oral cholera vaccination (OCV) is often used as a complement to these interventions. Due to limited supply, countries have recently switched to single-dose vaccines (OCV1). One challenge lies in understanding where to allocate OCV1 in a timely manner, especially in settings lacking well-resourced public health surveillance systems. As cholera occurs and propagates in such locations, timely, accurate, and openly accessible outbreak data are typically inaccessible for disease modeling and subsequent decision-making. In this study, we demonstrated the value of open-access data to rapidly estimate cholera transmission and vaccine effectiveness. Specifically, we obtained non-machine readable (NMR) epidemic curves for recent cholera outbreaks in two countries, Haiti and Cameroon, from figures published in situation and disease outbreak news reports. We used computational digitization techniques to derive weekly counts of cholera cases, resulting in nominal differences when compared against the reported cumulative case counts (i.e., a relative error rate of 5.67% in Haiti and 0.54% in Cameroon). Given these digitized time series, we leveraged EpiEstim-an open-source modeling platform-to derive rapid estimates of time-varying disease transmission via the effective reproduction number ( R t ). To compare OCV1 effectiveness in the two considered countries, we additionally used VaxEstim, a recent extension of EpiEstim that facilitates the estimation of vaccine effectiveness via the relation among three inputs: the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ), R t , and vaccine coverage. Here, with Haiti and Cameroon as case studies, we demonstrated the first implementation of VaxEstim in low-resource settings. Importantly, we are the first to use VaxEstim with digitized data rather than traditional epidemic surveillance data. In the initial phase of the outbreak, weekly rolling average estimates of R t were elevated in both countries: 2.60 in Haiti [95% credible interval: 2.42-2.79] and 1.90 in Cameroon [1.14-2.95]. These values are largely consistent with previous estimates of R 0 in Haiti, where average values have ranged from 1.06 to 3.72, and in Cameroon, where average values have ranged from 1.10 to 3.50. In both Haiti and Cameroon, this initial period of high transmission preceded a longer period during which R t oscillated around the critical threshold of 1. Our results derived from VaxEstim suggest that Haiti had higher OCV1 effectiveness than Cameroon (75.32% effective [54.00-86.39%] vs. 54.88% [18.94-84.90%]). These estimates of OCV1 effectiveness are generally aligned with those derived from field studies conducted in other countries. Thus, our case study reinforces the validity of VaxEstim as an alternative to costly, time-consuming field studies of OCV1 effectiveness. Indeed, prior work in South Sudan, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported OCV1 effectiveness ranging from approximately 40% to 80%. This work underscores the value of combining NMR sources of outbreak case data with computational techniques and the utility of VaxEstim for rapid, inexpensive estimation of vaccine effectiveness in data-poor outbreak settings.

"What's in a name?": Using mpox as a case study to understand the importance of communication, advocacy, and information accuracy in disease nomenclature.

Historically, many diseases have been named after the species or location of discovery, the discovering scientists, or the most impacted population. However, species-specific disease names often misrepresent the true reservoir; location-based disease names are frequently targeted with xenophobia; some of the discovering scientists have darker histories; and impacted populations have been stigmatized for this association. Acknowledging these concerns, the World Health Organization now proposes naming diseases after their causative pathogen or symptomatology. Recently, this guidance has been retrospectively applied to a disease at the center of an outbreak rife with stigmatization and misinformation: mpox (f.k.a. 'monkeypox'). This disease, historically endemic to west and central Africa, has prompted racist remarks as it spread globally in 2022 in an epidemic ongoing today. Moreover, its elevated prevalence among men who have sex with men has yielded increased stigma against the LGBTQ+ community. To address these prejudicial associations, 'monkeypox' was renamed 'mpox' in November 2022. We used publicly available data from Google Search Trends to determine which countries were quicker to adopt this name change-and understand factors that limit or facilitate its use. Specifically, we built regression models to quantify the relationship between 'mpox' search intensity in a given country and the country's type of political regime, robustness of sociopolitical and health systems, level of pandemic preparedness, extent of gender and educational inequalities, and temporal evolution of mpox cases through December 2023. Our results suggest that, when compared to 'monkeypox' search intensity, 'mpox' search intensity was significantly higher in countries with any history of mpox outbreaks or higher levels of LGBTQ+ acceptance; meanwhile, 'mpox' search intensity was significantly lower in countries governed by leaders who had recently propagated infectious disease misinformation. Among infectious diseases with stigmatizing names, mpox is among the first to be revised retrospectively. While the adoption of a given disease name will be context-specific-depending in part on its origins and the affected subpopulations-our study provides generalizable insights, applicable to future changes in disease nomenclature.

Utility of microbial cell free DNA next-generation sequencing for diagnosis and management of infectious diseases.

Microbial cell-free DNA (mcfDNA) sequencing is a promising tool to identify infectious pathogens when traditional methods fail to identify the causative agent. We performed a retrospective observational cohort study to evaluate clinical outcomes among pediatric and adult patients who underwent mcfDNA testing. 127 mcfDNA tests were reviewed from 112 patients. Baseline characteristics included 61 (54.5 %) adults, 52 (40.9 %) tests were from female patients, and 67 (52.8 %) tests were obtained from patients designated as immunocompromised. Of all tests obtained, 59 (46.4 %) were deemed clinically relevant. 41 (32.3 %) of tests also led to a change in antimicrobial management for the corresponding patient. No statistically significant association was ascertained between patient-specific factors and clinically relevant test results. Testing in certain clinical scenarios or high-risk settings may be useful, however further studies are needed to assess the cost-benefit of this approach.

Hospital outbreak of Carbapenem-resistant acinetobacter baumannii in the context of local facility transmission.

Carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii are of increasing concern in the health care setting. We describe a cluster of 9 cases in hospitalized patients over a 3-month period that reflected ongoing community transmission from high-risk facilities. Robust surveillance and knowledge of local epidemiology are critical to mitigating onward transmission in the health care setting.

Otolaryngologic manifestations among MPOX patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: MPOX has numerous otolaryngologic presentations that have been recognized as clinically important, especially with the onset of the 2022 outbreak. However, how these features vary across region and outbreak have yet to be elucidated or supported by meta-analysis. The objective of this study is to identify the otolaryngologic manifestations of MPOX across previous and current outbreaks and among endemic and non-endemic regions. BASIC PROCEDURES: Data sources of MEDLINE (PubMed), the Cochrane Library, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and OpenGrey were searched through August 2022. All observational studies reporting data on laboratory-confirmed MPOX patients with otolaryngologic symptoms were included. Two authors independently performed the screening process while a third resolved disagreements. Data were extracted into a structured form by two authors independently. We performed a meta-analysis of the prevalence of otorhinolaryngologic symptoms using MetaXL software (version 5.3) under a random-effects model. MAIN FINDINGS: 38 studies with 5952 patients were included. The four most prevalent manifestations were headache at 31 % (95 % CI [0.16-0.49], I 2  = 99 %), sore throat at 22 % (95 % CI [0.09-0.37], I 2  = 99 %), cough at 16 % (95 % CI [0.05-0.30], I 2  = 99 %), and cervical lymphadenopathy at 10 % (95 % CI [0.01-0.26], I 2  = 100 %). Otolaryngologic features were more prevalent in previous outbreaks as compared to the 2022 outbreak including 37 % prevalence of headache (95 % CI [0.11-0.66], I 2  = 100 %), 33 % prevalence of cough (95 % CI [0.21-0.47], I 2  = 98 %), 27 % prevalence of sore throat (95 % CI [0.07-0.53], I 2  = 99 %), 15 % prevalence of cervical lymphadenopathy (95 % CI [0.00-0.428], I 2  = 100 %), 13 % prevalence of oral ulcers (95 % CI [0.02-0.30], I 2  = 99 %), 6 % prevalence of oral exanthem (95 % CI [0.00-0.17], I 2  = 99 %), 5 % prevalence of dysphagia (95 % CI [0.00-0.18], I 2  = 99 %), and 5 % prevalence of tonsillar signs (95 % CI [0.00-0.13], I 2  = 99 %). Features that were more prevalent in endemic areas versus non-endemic areas include 27 % prevalence of cough (95 % CI [0.14-0.41], I 2  = 99 %), 15 % prevalence of oral ulcers (95 % CI [0.02-0.36], I 2  = 99 %), 6 % prevalence of tonsillar signs (95 % CI [0.00-0.18], I 2  = 99 %), and 19 % prevalence of cervical lymphadenopathy (95 % CI [0.00-0.48], I 2  = 100 %), while the only feature more prevalent in non-endemic areas was headache with a prevalence of 36 % (95 % CI [0.24-0.47], I 2  = 96 %). PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, four symptoms - headache, sore throat, cough, and cervical lymphadenopathy - were found to be the most prevalent otolaryngologic features of MPOX. Otolaryngologic manifestations of MPOX were more pronounced in prior outbreaks and in endemic areas as compared to the 2022 outbreak and non-endemic areas. These findings may aid MPOX recognition in an otolaryngology setting.

JYNNEOS Vaccine for Mpox.

This JAMA Patient Page describes the eligibility, safety and effectiveness, and administration procedure for the JYNNEOS vaccine for mpox infection.

Mpox Infection in Children-Infection Control Implications for Household Contacts.

Mpox has recently re-emerged as a global entity of concern. We report one of the first pediatric cases in the United States and provide updated recommendations relevant to infection control and prevention measures of those in close contact with mpox.

Evolving Face Mask Guidance During a Pandemic and Potential Harm to Public Perception: Infodemiology Study of Sentiment and Emotion on Twitter.

BACKGROUND: Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention policies on face mask use fluctuated. Understanding how public health communications evolve around key policy decisions may inform future decisions on preventative measures by aiding the design of communication strategies (eg, wording, timing, and channel) that ensure rapid dissemination and maximize both widespread adoption and sustained adherence. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess how sentiment on masks evolved surrounding 2 changes to mask guidelines: (1) the recommendation for mask use on April 3, 2020, and (2) the relaxation of mask use on May 13, 2021. METHODS: We applied an interrupted time series method to US Twitter data surrounding each guideline change. Outcomes were changes in the (1) proportion of positive, negative, and neutral tweets and (2) number of words within a tweet tagged with a given emotion (eg, trust). Results were compared to COVID-19 Twitter data without mask keywords for the same period. RESULTS: There were fewer neutral mask-related tweets in 2020 (ß=-3.94 percentage points, 95% CI -4.68 to -3.21; P<.001) and 2021 (ß=-8.74, 95% CI -9.31 to -8.17; P<.001). Following the April 3 recommendation (ß=.51, 95% CI .43-.59; P<.001) and May 13 relaxation (ß=3.43, 95% CI 1.61-5.26; P<.001), the percent of negative mask-related tweets increased. The quantity of trust-related terms decreased following the policy change on April 3 (ß=-.004, 95% CI -.004 to -.003; P<.001) and May 13 (ß=-.001, 95% CI -.002 to 0; P=.008). CONCLUSIONS: The US Twitter population responded negatively and with less trust following guideline shifts related to masking, regardless of whether the guidelines recommended or relaxed mask usage. Federal agencies should ensure that changes in public health recommendations are communicated concisely and rapidly.

Compassionate Use of Tecovirimat for the Treatment of Monkeypox Infection.

This case series describes the clinical resolution of systemic symptoms and lesions, along with any adverse events, in patients with monkeypox infection who were treated with tecovirimat on a compassionate use basis.

Syndromic surveillance of respiratory infections during protracted conflict: experiences from northern Syria 2016-2021.

OBJECTIVE: Northern Syria faces a large burden of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI). This study aimed to investigate the trends of Early Warning and Response Network (EWARN) reported ILI and SARI in northern Syria between 2016 and 2021 and the potential impact of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: We extracted weekly EWARN data on ILI/ SARI and aggregated cases and consultations into 4-week intervals to calculate case positivity. We conducted a seasonal-trend decomposition to assess case trends in the presence of seasonal fluctuations. RESULTS: It was observed that 4-week aggregates of ILI cases (n = 5,942,012), SARI cases (n = 114,939), ILI case positivity, and SARI case positivity exhibited seasonal fluctuations with peaks in the winter months. ILI and SARI cases in individuals aged ≥5 years surpassed those in individuals aged <5 years in late 2019. ILI cases clustered primarily in Aleppo and Idlib, whereas SARI cases clustered in Aleppo, Idlib, Deir Ezzor, and Hassakeh. SARI cases increased sharply in 2021, corresponding with a severe SARS-CoV-2 wave, compared with the steady increase in ILI cases over time. CONCLUSION: Respiratory infections cause widespread morbidity and mortality throughout northern Syria, particularly with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Strengthened surveillance and access to testing and treatment are critical to manage outbreaks among conflict-affected populations.

Misinformation and Disinformation: The Potential Disadvantages of Social Media in Infectious Disease and How to Combat Them.

Although the use of social media to spread misinformation and disinformation is not a new concept, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has further highlighted the dangers that misinformation can pose to public health. More than two-thirds of Americans receive their news from at least 1 social media outlet, most of which do not undergo the same review process as academic journals and some professional news organizations. Unfortunately, this can lead to inaccurate health information being conveyed as truth. The purpose of this article is to inform the infectious diseases community of the history and dangers of health misinformation and disinformation in social media, present tools for identifying and responding to misinformation, and propose other ethical considerations for social media.

Viral Hepatitis E Outbreaks in Refugees and Internally Displaced Populations, sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020.

Hepatitis E virus is a common cause of acute viral hepatitis. We analyzed reports of hepatitis E outbreaks among forcibly displaced populations in sub-Saharan Africa during 2010-2020. Twelve independent outbreaks occurred, and >30,000 cases were reported. Transmission was attributed to poor sanitation and overcrowding.

Antimicrobial Resistance and Human Mobility.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is of increasing global concern. Human mobility is one factor that has recently been associated with AMR, though the extent of its impact has not yet been well established due to the limited availability of rigorous data. This review examines the existing literature regarding various types of human mobility including short-term travelers, forcibly displaced persons, migrant populations, and their association with global rates of AMR.

Evaluating criminal justice reform during COVID-19: The need for a novel sentiment analysis package.

The health and safety of incarcerated persons and correctional personnel have been prominent in the U.S. news media discourse during the COVID-19 pandemic. Examining changing attitudes toward the health of the incarcerated population is imperative to better assess the extent to which the general public favors criminal justice reform. However, existing natural language processing lexicons that underlie current sentiment analysis (SA) algorithms may not perform adequately on news articles related to criminal justice due to contextual complexities. News discourse during the pandemic has highlighted the need for a novel SA lexicon and algorithm (i.e., an SA package) tailored for examining public health policy in the context of the criminal justice system. We analyzed the performance of existing SA packages on a corpus of news articles at the intersection of COVID-19 and criminal justice collected from state-level outlets between January and May 2020. Our results demonstrated that sentence sentiment scores provided by three popular SA packages can differ considerably from manually-curated ratings. This dissimilarity was especially pronounced when the text was more polarized, whether negatively or positively. A randomly selected set of 1,000 manually scored sentences, and the corresponding binary document term matrices, were used to train two new sentiment prediction algorithms (i.e., linear regression and random forest regression) to verify the performance of the manually-curated ratings. By better accounting for the unique context in which incarceration-related terminologies are used in news media, both of our proposed models outperformed all existing SA packages considered for comparison. Our findings suggest that there is a need to develop a novel lexicon, and potentially an accompanying algorithm, for analysis of text related to public health within the criminal justice system, as well as criminal justice more broadly.

Risk factors for increased COVID-19 case-fatality in the United States: A county-level analysis during the first wave.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is causing significant morbidity and mortality across the US. In this ecological study, we identified county-level variables associated with the COVID-19 case-fatality rate (CFR) using publicly available datasets and a negative binomial generalized linear model. Variables associated with decreased CFR included a greater number of hospitals per 10,000 people, banning religious gatherings, a higher percentage of people living in mobile homes, and a higher percentage of uninsured people. Variables associated with increased CFR included a higher percentage of the population over age 65, a higher percentage of Black or African Americans, a higher asthma prevalence, and a greater number of hospitals in a county. By identifying factors that are associated with COVID-19 CFR in US counties, we hope to help officials target public health interventions and healthcare resources to locations that are at increased risk of COVID-19 fatalities.