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1.
Waste Manag Res ; 42(3): 232-243, 2024 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37386896

RESUMEN

Plastic waste management is a complicated challenge that in recent years has gained attention as a global policy priority. In low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), waste management is heterogeneous and context-specific and many organizations provide needed waste management services, including entrepreneurs. Sustainable entrepreneurs are uniquely positioned to provide these services; however, they face challenges such as limited support system and lack of capacity. The goal of this paper is to understand critical characteristics of successful plastic waste management ventures in LMIC and operationalize those insights into a strategic tool. A wide variety of successful ventures from diverse LMIC contexts are systematically analyzed to identify which factors contribute to their business viability and ability to deliver services. The identified success factors were built into a tool, the Plastic Venture Builder (PVB), based on the multi-criteria analysis methodology. This is validated using empirical cases, tested on projects currently in development and discussed with experts in the field. The results show that political, economic, financial, technological, operational, social, team and legal factors contribute to success; however pathways to success are diverse. We identify a strong team as the most critical factor, whereas financial, political and social factors have the least impact. The PVB can be used by entrepreneurs who want to set up or improve plastic waste management ventures by identifying weak spots or avenues for improvement. The assessment framework can also be used by policy makers, development agencies and financing organizations who want to support or assess waste management initiatives by prioritizing their resources to match the identified critical factors.


Asunto(s)
Países en Desarrollo , Administración de Residuos
2.
BMJ Open ; 13(1): e063014, 2023 01 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36604128

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Physical exertion is a high-risk activity for aerosol emission of respiratory pathogens. We aimed to determine the safety and tolerability of healthy young adults wearing different types of face mask during moderate-to-high intensity exercise. DESIGN: Cross-over randomised controlled study, completed between June 2021 and January 2022. PARTICIPANTS: Volunteers aged 18-35 years, who exercised regularly and had no significant pre-existing health conditions. INTERVENTIONS: Comparison of wearing a surgical, cloth and filtering face piece (FFP3) mask to no mask during 4×15 min bouts of exercise. Exercise was running outdoors or indoor rowing at moderate-to-high intensity, with consistency of distance travelled between bouts confirmed using a smartphone application (Strava). Each participant completed each bout in random order. OUTCOMES: The primary outcome was change in oxygen saturations. Secondary outcomes were change in heart rate, perceived impact of face mask wearing during exercise and willingness to wear a face mask for future exercise. RESULTS: All 72 volunteers (mean age 23.9) completed the study. Changes in oxygen saturations did not exceed the prespecified non-inferiority margin (2% difference) with any mask type compared with no mask. At the end of exercise, the estimated average difference in oxygen saturations for cloth mask was -0.07% (95% CI -0.39% to 0.25%), for surgical 0.28% (-0.04% to 0.60%) and for FFP3 -0.21% (-0.53% to 0.11%). The corresponding estimated average difference in heart rate for cloth mask was -1.20 bpm (95% CI -4.56 to 2.15), for surgical 0.36 bpm (95% CI -3.01 to 3.73) and for FFP3 0.52 bpm (95% CI -2.85 to 3.89). Wearing a face mask caused additional symptoms such as breathlessness (n=13, 18%) and dizziness (n=7, 10%). 33 participants broadly supported face mask wearing during exercise, particularly indoors, but 22 were opposed. CONCLUSION: This study adds to previous findings (mostly from non-randomised studies) that exercising at moderate-to-high intensity wearing a face mask appears to be safe in healthy, young adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04932226.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Adulto Joven , Humanos , Adulto , COVID-19/prevención & control , Máscaras , Ejercicio Físico , Estudios Cruzados , Oxígeno
4.
Chaos ; 32(10): 103115, 2022 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36319290

RESUMEN

On average once every four years, the Tropical Pacific warms considerably during events called El Niño, leading to weather disruptions over many regions on Earth. Recent machine-learning approaches to El Niño prediction, in particular, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), have shown a surprisingly high skill at relatively long lead times. In an attempt to understand this high skill, we here use data from distorted physics simulations with the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model to determine what aspects of El Niño physics are represented in a specific CNN-based classification method. We find that the CNN can adequately correct for distortions in the ocean adjustment processes, but that the machine-learning method has far more trouble in dealing with distortions in upwelling feedback strength.


Asunto(s)
El Niño Oscilación del Sur , Tiempo (Meteorología) , Física
5.
Br J Sports Med ; 56(4): 175-195, 2022 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34625401

RESUMEN

Poor reporting of medical and healthcare systematic reviews is a problem from which the sports and exercise medicine, musculoskeletal rehabilitation, and sports science fields are not immune. Transparent, accurate and comprehensive systematic review reporting helps researchers replicate methods, readers understand what was done and why, and clinicians and policy-makers implement results in practice. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) Statement and its accompanying Explanation and Elaboration document provide general reporting examples for systematic reviews of healthcare interventions. However, implementation guidance for sport and exercise medicine, musculoskeletal rehabilitation, and sports science does not exist. The Prisma in Exercise, Rehabilitation, Sport medicine and SporTs science (PERSiST) guidance attempts to address this problem. Nineteen content experts collaborated with three methods experts to identify examples of exemplary reporting in systematic reviews in sport and exercise medicine (including physical activity), musculoskeletal rehabilitation (including physiotherapy), and sports science, for each of the PRISMA 2020 Statement items. PERSiST aims to help: (1) systematic reviewers improve the transparency and reporting of systematic reviews and (2) journal editors and peer reviewers make informed decisions about systematic review reporting quality.


Asunto(s)
Medicina Deportiva , Deportes , Medicina Basada en la Evidencia , Ejercicio Físico , Terapia por Ejercicio , Humanos , Revisiones Sistemáticas como Asunto
6.
Br J Sports Med ; 2022 Dec 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36588401

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: Primary cam morphology is a mostly benign bony prominence that develops at the femoral head-neck junction of the hip, but it is highly prevalent in many athlete populations. In the small proportion of athletes for whom it is not benign, the resulting hip osteoarthritis can be debilitating. Clinicians, athletes, patients and researchers do not yet agree on important primary cam morphology elements. We aimed to ascertain and improve the level of agreement on primary cam morphology definitions, terminology, taxonomy and imaging outcome measures. METHODS: To collect and aggregate informed opinions, an expert panel-the Young Athlete's Hip Research Collaborative-rated primary cam morphology definition, terminology, taxonomy and imaging outcome statements through an online Delphi exercise followed by an online meeting to explore areas of tension and dissent. Reporting followed Conducting and REporting DElphi Studies. RESULTS: A diverse and inclusive Delphi panel (n=65 for rounds 1 and 2, representing 18 countries; 6 stakeholder groups; 40% women) agreed on 35 of 47 statements in 4 domains, while surfacing areas of tension and dissent. This Delphi panel agreed on four key issues essential to moving research and clinical care forward around primary cam morphology. They agreed on: (1) definition, confirming its conceptual attributes (tissue type, size, location, shape and ownership); (2) terminology-use 'morphology' and not terms with a negative connotation like 'lesion', 'abnormality' or 'deformity'; (3) taxonomy, distinguishing between primary and secondary cam morphology, and (4) imaging outcomes, a continuous bone/cartilage alpha angle on radial femoral head-neck MRI for primary cam morphology aetiology research. CONCLUSION: This consensus provides athletes, patients, clinicians and researchers with a strong foundation to guide more precise communication, better clinical decision-making and higher value research about primary cam morphology and its natural history.

7.
Br J Sports Med ; 2022 Dec 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36588402

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: Primary cam morphology is highly prevalent in many athlete populations, causing debilitating hip osteoarthritis in some. Existing research is mired in confusion partly because stakeholders have not agreed on key primary cam morphology elements or a prioritised research agenda. We aimed to inform a more rigorous, inclusive and evidence-based approach to research on primary cam morphology and its natural history by working towards agreement on a set of research priorities for conditions affecting the young person's hip. METHODS: An international expert panel-the Young Athlete's Hip Research (YAHiR) Collaborative-rated research priority statements through an online two-round Delphi exercise and met online to explore areas of tension and dissent. Panellists ranked the prioritised research statements according to the Essential National Health Research (ENHR) ranking strategy. Reporting of results followed REPRISE (REporting guideline for PRIority SEtting of health). RESULTS: A diverse Delphi panel (n=65, Delphi rounds 1 and 2; three ENHR strategy surveys: n=49; n=44; n=42) from 18 countries representing six stakeholder groups, prioritised and ranked 18 of 38 research priority statements. The prioritised statements outlined seven research domains: (1) best practice physiotherapy, (2) rehabilitation progression and return to sport, (3) exercise intervention and load management, (4) primary cam morphology prognosis and aetiology, (5) femoroacetabular impingement syndrome prognosis and aetiology, (6) diagnostic criteria, and (7) screening. The panel recommended areas of tension and dissent for the research community to focus on immediately. CONCLUSION: While informing more rigorous, inclusive and evidence-based research, this consensus is a roadmap for researchers, policy-makers and funders to implement research dedicated to reducing the cost and burden of hip disease related to primary cam morphology.

8.
Br J Sports Med ; 55(21): 1212-1221, 2021 Nov.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34281962

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Cam morphology, a distinct bony morphology of the hip, is prevalent in many athletes, and a risk factor for hip-related pain and osteoarthritis. Secondary cam morphology, due to existing or previous hip disease (eg, Legg-Calve-Perthes disease), is well-described. Cam morphology not clearly associated with a disease is a challenging concept for clinicians, scientists and patients. We propose this morphology, which likely develops during skeletal maturation as a physiological response to load, should be referred to as primary cam morphology. The aim of this study was to introduce and clarify the concept of primary cam morphology. DESIGN: We conducted a concept analysis of primary cam morphology using articles that reported risk factors associated with primary cam morphology; we excluded articles on secondary cam morphology. The concept analysis method is a rigorous eight-step process designed to clarify complex 'concepts'; the end product is a precise definition that supports the theoretical basis of the chosen concept. RESULTS: We propose five defining attributes of primary cam morphology-tissue type, size, site, shape and ownership-in a new conceptual and operational definition. Primary cam morphology is a cartilage or bony prominence (bump) of varying size at the femoral head-neck junction, which changes the shape of the femoral head from spherical to aspherical. It often occurs in asymptomatic male athletes in both hips. The cartilage or bone alpha angle (calculated from radiographs, CT or MRI) is the most common method to measure cam morphology. We found inconsistent reporting of primary cam morphology taxonomy, terminology, and how the morphology is operationalised. CONCLUSION: We introduce and clarify primary cam morphology, and propose a new conceptual and operational definition. Several elements of the concept of primary cam morphology remain unclear and contested. Experts need to agree on the new taxonomy, terminology and definition that better reflect the primary cam morphology landscape-a bog-standard bump in most athletic hips, and a possible hip disease burden in a selected few.


Asunto(s)
Pinzamiento Femoroacetabular/diagnóstico por imagen , Cabeza Femoral/patología , Cuello Femoral/patología , Articulación de la Cadera/diagnóstico por imagen , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética/métodos , Epífisis Desprendida de Cabeza Femoral/etiología , Atletas , Epífisis/patología , Pinzamiento Femoroacetabular/etiología , Humanos , Enfermedad de Legg-Calve-Perthes , Huesos Pélvicos
9.
PLoS One ; 16(1): e0245930, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33493230

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: In breast diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) protocol standardization, it is recently shown that no breast tumor tissue selection (BTTS) method outperformed the others. The purpose of this study is to analyze the feasibility of three fixed-size breast tumor tissue selection (BTTS) methods based on the reproducibility, accuracy and time-measurement in comparison to the largest oval and manual delineation in breast diffusion weighted imaging data. METHODS: This study is performed with a consecutive dataset of 116 breast lesions (98 malignant) of at least 1.0 cm, scanned in accordance with the EUSOBI breast DWI working group recommendations. Reproducibility of the maximum size manual (BTTS1) and of the maximal size round/oval (BTTS2) methods were compared with three smaller fixed-size circular BTTS methods in the middle of each lesion (BTTS3, 0.12 cm3 volume) and at lowest apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) (BTTS4, 0.12 cm3; BTTS5, 0.24 cm3). Mean ADC values, intraclass-correlation-coefficients (ICCs), area under the curve (AUC) and measurement times (sec) of the 5 BTTS methods were assessed by two observers. RESULTS: Excellent inter- and intra-observer agreement was found for any BTTS (with ICC 0.88-0.92 and 0.92-0.94, respectively). Significant difference in ADCmean between any pair of BTTS methods was shown (p = <0.001-0.009), except for BTTS2 vs. BTTS3 for observer 1 (p = 0.10). AUCs were comparable between BTTS methods, with highest AUC for BTTS2 (0.89-0.91) and lowest for BTTS4 (0.76-0.85). However, as an indicator of clinical feasibility, BTTS2-3 showed shortest measurement times (10-15 sec) compared to BTTS1, 4-5 (19-39 sec). CONCLUSION: The performance of fixed-size BTTS methods, as a potential tool for clinical decision making, shows equal AUC but shorter ADC measurement time compared to manual or oval whole lesion measurements. The advantage of a fixed size BTTS method is the excellent reproducibility. A central fixed breast tumor tissue volume of 0.12 cm3 is the most feasible method for use in clinical practice.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias de la Mama/diagnóstico por imagen , Mama/diagnóstico por imagen , Toma de Decisiones Clínicas , Adulto , Anciano , Imagen de Difusión por Resonancia Magnética , Femenino , Humanos , Interpretación de Imagen Asistida por Computador/métodos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Adulto Joven
11.
Br J Sports Med ; 55(2): 81-83, 2021 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32972978

RESUMEN

Training in the medical specialty of sport and exercise medicine (SEM) is available in many, but not all countries. In 2015, an independent Delphi group, the International Syllabus in Sport and Exercise Medicine Group (ISSEMG), was formed to create a basic syllabus for this medical specialty. The group provided the first part of this syllabus, by identifying 11 domains and a total of 80 general learning areas for the specialty, in December 2017. The next step in this process, and the aim of this paper was to determine the specific learning areas for each of the 80 general learning areas. A group of 26 physicians with a range of primary medical specialty qualifications including, Sport and Exercise Medicine, Family Medicine, Internal Medicine, Cardiology, Rheumatology and Anaesthetics were invited to participate in a multiple round online Delphi study to develop specific learning areas for each of the previously published general learning areas. All invitees have extensive clinical experience in the broader sports medicine field, and in one or more components of sports medicine governance at national and/or international level. SEM, Family Medicine, Internal Medicine, Cardiology, Rheumatology and Anaesthetics were invited to participate in a multiple round online Delphi study to develop specific learning areas for each of the previously published general learning areas. All invitees have extensive clinical experience in the broader sports medicine field, and in one or more components of sports medicine governance at national and/or international level. The hierarchical syllabus developed by the ISSEMG provides a useful resource in the planning, development and delivery of specialist training programmes in the medical specialty of SEM.


Asunto(s)
Consenso , Curriculum , Técnica Delphi , Medicina Deportiva/educación , Ejercicio Físico , Humanos , Cooperación Internacional
12.
Br J Sports Med ; 54(19): 1162-1167, 2020 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32605933

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic forces sport and exercise medicine (SEM) physicians to think differently about the clinical care of patients. Many rapidly implement eHealth and telemedicine solutions specific to SEM without guidance on how best to provide these services. AIM: The aim of this paper is to present some guiding principles on how to plan for and perform an SEM consultation remotely (teleSEM) based on a narrative review of the literature. A secondary aim is to develop a generic teleSEM injury template. RESULTS: eHealth and telemedicine are essential solutions to effective remote patient care, also in SEM. This paper provides guidance for wise planning and delivery of teleSEM. It is crucial for SEM physicians, technology providers and organisations to codesign teleSEM services, ideally involving athletes, coaches and other clinicians involved in the clinical care of athletes, and to gradually implement these services with appropriate support and education. CONCLUSION: teleSEM provides solutions for remote athlete clinical care during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. We define two new terms-eSEM and teleSEM and discuss guiding principles on how to plan for and perform SEM consultations remotely (teleSEM). We provide an example of a generic teleSEM injury assessment guide.


Asunto(s)
Betacoronavirus , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Medicina Deportiva/métodos , Telemedicina/métodos , COVID-19 , Toma de Decisiones Conjunta , Registros Electrónicos de Salud , Humanos , Pandemias , Selección de Paciente , Examen Físico , Guías de Práctica Clínica como Asunto , Consulta Remota/métodos , Consulta Remota/organización & administración , SARS-CoV-2 , Medicina Deportiva/organización & administración , Telemedicina/ética , Telemedicina/organización & administración , Terminología como Asunto
13.
J Sci Med Sport ; 23(7): 670-679, 2020 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32448749

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To describe the perceptions of South African elite and semi-elite athletes on return to sport (RTS); maintenance of physical conditioning and other activities; sleep; nutrition; mental health; healthcare access; and knowledge of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). DESIGN: Cross- sectional study. METHODS: A Google Forms survey was distributed to athletes from 15 sports in the final phase (last week of April 2020) of the level 5 lockdown period. Descriptive statistics were used to describe player demographic data. Chi-squared tests investigated significance (p<0.05) between observed and expected values and explored sex differences. Post hoc tests with a Bonferroni adjustment were included where applicable. RESULTS: 67% of the 692 respondents were males. The majority (56%) expected RTS after 1-6 months. Most athletes trained alone (61%; p<0.0001), daily (61%; p<0.0001) at moderate intensity (58%; p<0.0001) and for 30-60min (72%). During leisure time athletes preferred sedentary above active behaviour (p<0.0001). Sleep patterns changed significantly (79%; p<0.0001). A significant number of athletes consumed excessive amounts of carbohydrates (76%; p<0.0001; males 73%; females 80%). Many athletes felt depressed (52%), and required motivation to keep active (55%). Most had access to healthcare during lockdown (80%) and knew proceedings when suspecting COVID-19 (92%). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 had physical, nutritional and psychological consequences that may impact on the safe RTS and general health of athletes. Lost opportunities and uncertain financial and sporting futures may have significant effects on athletes and the sports industry. Government and sporting federations must support athletes and develop and implement guidelines to reduce the risk in a COVID-19 environment.


Asunto(s)
Atletas , Infecciones por Coronavirus , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral , Volver al Deporte , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Estudios Transversales , Depresión , Carbohidratos de la Dieta , Ejercicio Físico , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , SARS-CoV-2 , Conducta Sedentaria , Sueño , Encuestas y Cuestionarios
14.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 284, 2020 01 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31937896

RESUMEN

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a mode of climate variability observed in the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies with one pole off Sumatra and the other pole near East Africa. An IOD event starts sometime in May-June, peaks in September-October and ends in November. Through atmospheric teleconnections, it affects the climate of many parts of the world, especially that of East Africa, Australia, India, Japan, and Europe. Owing to its large impacts, previous studies have addressed the predictability of the IOD using state of the art coupled climate models. Here, for the first-time, we predict the IOD using machine learning techniques, in particular artificial neural networks (ANNs). The IOD forecasts are generated for May to November from February-April conditions. The attributes for the ANNs are derived from sea surface temperature, 850 hPa and 200 hPa geopotential height anomalies, using a correlation analysis for the period 1949-2018. An ensemble of ANN forecasts is generated using 500 samples with replacement using jackknife approach. The ensemble mean of the IOD forecasts indicates the machine learning based ANN models to be capable of forecasting the IOD index well in advance with excellent skills. The forecast skills are much superior to the skills obtained from the persistence forecasts that one would guess from the observed data. The ANN models also perform far better than the models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) with higher correlation coefficients and lower root mean square errors (RMSE) for all the target months of May-November.

15.
Br J Sports Med ; 54(9): 504-511, 2020 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31732651

RESUMEN

The 1st International Hip-related Pain Research Network meeting discussed four prioritised themes concerning hip-related pain in young to middle-aged adults: (1) diagnosis and classification of hip-related pain; (2) patient-reported outcome measures for hip-related pain; (3) measurement of physical capacity for hip-related pain; (4) physiotherapist-led treatment for hip-related pain. Thirty-eight expert researchers and clinicians working in the field of hip-related pain attended the meeting. This manuscript relates to the theme of physiotherapist-led treatments for hip-related pain. A systematic review on the efficacy of physiotherapist-led interventions for hip-related pain (published separately) was conducted and found that strong evidence for physiotherapist-led treatments was lacking. Prior to the meeting, draft consensus recommendations for consideration in the meeting were also developed based on the systematic review. The draft consensus recommendations were presented to all of the meeting participants via email, at least 1 week prior to the meeting. At the meeting, these recommendations were discussed, revised and voted on. Six recommendations for clinical practice and five recommendations for research were included and all gained consensus. Recommendations for clinical practice were that (i) Exercise-based treatments are recommended for people with hip-related pain. (ii) Exercise-based treatment should be at least 3 months duration. (iii) Physiotherapist-led rehabilitation after hip surgery should be undertaken. (iv) Patient-reported outcome measures, measures of physical impairment and measures of psychosocial factors should be used to monitor response to treatment. (v) Physical activity (that may include sport) is recommended for people with hip-related pain. (vi) Clinicians should discuss patient expectations, use shared-decision making and provide education. Recommendations for research were (i) Reporting of exercise programmes: Exercise descriptors such as load magnitude, number of repetitions and sets, duration of whole programme, duration of contractile element of exercise, duration of one repetition, time under tension, rest between repetitions, range of motion through which the exercise is performed, and rest between exercise sessions should be reported. (ii) Research should investigate the optimal frequency, intensity, time, type, volume and progression of exercise therapy. (iii) Research should examine the effect of patient education in people with hip-related pain. (iv) Research should investigate the effect of other treatments used in people with hip-related pain (for example: manual therapy, medications, injections). (v) Research should examine the impact of comorbidities and social determinants on treatment effectiveness in people with hip-related pain. Clinicians and researchers working with young to middle-aged active adults with hip-related pain may use these consensus recommendations to guide, develop, test and implement individualised, evidence-based physiotherapist-led rehabilitation programmes.


Asunto(s)
Artralgia/terapia , Terapia por Ejercicio , Articulación de la Cadera , Adolescente , Adulto , Artralgia/clasificación , Artralgia/diagnóstico , Artralgia/psicología , Investigación Biomédica , Toma de Decisiones Conjunta , Terapia por Ejercicio/métodos , Articulación de la Cadera/cirugía , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Educación del Paciente como Asunto , Evaluación del Resultado de la Atención al Paciente , Adulto Joven
16.
Sci Rep ; 9(1): 12781, 2019 09 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31484983

RESUMEN

Seasonal forecasts of air-temperature generated by numerical models provide guidance to the planners and to the society as a whole. However, generating accurate seasonal forecasts is challenging mainly due to the stochastic nature of the atmospheric internal variability. Therefore, an array of ensemble members is often used to capture the prediction signals. With large spread in the prediction plumes, it becomes important to employ techniques to reduce the effects of unrealistic members. One such technique is to create a weighted average of the ensemble members of seasonal forecasts. In this study, we applied a machine learning technique, viz. a genetic algorithm, to derive optimum weights for the 24-ensemble members of the coupled general circulation model; the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier research center for global change version 2 (SINTEX-F2) boreal summer forecasts. Our analysis showed the technique to have significantly improved the 2m-air temperature anomalies over several regions of South America, North America, Australia and Russia compared to the unweighted ensemble mean. The spatial distribution of air temperature anomalies is improved by the GA technique leading to better representation of anomalies in the predictions. Hence, machine learning techniques could help in improving the regional air temperature forecasts over the mid- and high-latitude regions where the model skills are relatively modest.

17.
BMC Cancer ; 18(1): 1006, 2018 Oct 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30342494

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Nearly one third of patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) for locally advanced esophageal cancer have a pathologic complete response (pCR) of the primary tumor upon histopathological evaluation of the resection specimen. The primary aim of this study is to develop a model that predicts the probability of pCR to nCRT in esophageal cancer, based on diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI), dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) and 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography with computed tomography (18F-FDG PET-CT). Accurate response prediction could lead to a patient-tailored approach with omission of surgery in the future in case of predicted pCR or additional neoadjuvant treatment in case of non-pCR. METHODS: The PRIDE study is a prospective, single arm, observational multicenter study designed to develop a multimodal prediction model for histopathological response to nCRT for esophageal cancer. A total of 200 patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer - of which at least 130 patients with adenocarcinoma and at least 61 patients with squamous cell carcinoma - scheduled to receive nCRT followed by esophagectomy will be included. The primary modalities to be incorporated in the prediction model are quantitative parameters derived from MRI and 18F-FDG PET-CT scans, which will be acquired at fixed intervals before, during and after nCRT. Secondary modalities include blood samples for analysis of the presence of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) at 3 time-points (before, during and after nCRT), and an endoscopy with (random) bite-on-bite biopsies of the primary tumor site and other suspected lesions in the esophagus as well as an endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) with fine needle aspiration of suspected lymph nodes after finishing nCRT. The main study endpoint is the performance of the model for pCR prediction. Secondary endpoints include progression-free and overall survival. DISCUSSION: If the multimodal PRIDE concept provides high predictive performance for pCR, the results of this study will play an important role in accurate identification of esophageal cancer patients with a pCR to nCRT. These patients might benefit from a patient-tailored approach with omission of surgery in the future. Vice versa, patients with non-pCR might benefit from additional neoadjuvant treatment, or ineffective therapy could be stopped. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The article reports on a health care intervention on human participants and was prospectively registered on March 22, 2018 under ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03474341 .


Asunto(s)
Quimioradioterapia/métodos , Neoplasias Esofágicas/diagnóstico por imagen , Neoplasias Esofágicas/terapia , Terapia Neoadyuvante/métodos , Tomografía Computarizada por Tomografía de Emisión de Positrones/métodos , Cuidados Preoperatorios/métodos , Neoplasias Esofágicas/epidemiología , Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Resultado del Tratamiento
18.
Eur J Radiol ; 89: 182-190, 2017 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28267537

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To assess and compare the intra- and interrater reliability of three different MRI grading and classification systems after acute hamstring injury. METHODS: Male athletes (n=40) with clinical diagnosis of acute hamstring injury and MRI ≤5days were selected from a prospective cohort. Two radiologists independently evaluated the MRIs using standardised scoring form including the modified Peetrons grading system, the Chan acute muscle strain injury classification and the British Athletics Muscle Injury Classification. Intra-and interrater reliability was assessed with linear weighted kappa (κ) or unweighted Cohen's κ and percentage agreement was calculated. RESULTS: We observed 'substantial' to 'almost perfect' intra- (κ range 0.65-1.00) and interrater reliability (κ range 0.77-1.00) with percentage agreement 83-100% and 88-100%, respectively, for severity gradings, overall anatomical sites and overall classifications for the three MRI systems. We observed substantial variability (κ range -0.05 to 1.00) for subcategories within the Chan classification and the British Athletics Muscle Injury Classification, however, the prevalence of positive scorings was low for some subcategories. CONCLUSIONS: The modified Peetrons grading system, overall Chan classification and overall British Athletics Muscle Injury Classification demonstrated 'substantial' to 'almost perfect' intra- and interrater reliability when scored by experienced radiologists. The intra- and interrater reliability for the anatomical subcategories within the classifications remains unclear.


Asunto(s)
Traumatismos en Atletas/patología , Músculos Isquiosurales/lesiones , Tendones Isquiotibiales/lesiones , Adolescente , Adulto , Traumatismos en Atletas/clasificación , Músculos Isquiosurales/patología , Tendones Isquiotibiales/patología , Humanos , Traumatismos de la Pierna/clasificación , Traumatismos de la Pierna/patología , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Variaciones Dependientes del Observador , Estudios Prospectivos , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Rotura/clasificación , Rotura/patología , Traumatismos de los Tejidos Blandos/clasificación , Traumatismos de los Tejidos Blandos/patología , Adulto Joven
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