Quantitative estimates of glacial refugia for chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) since the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP).

Paleoclimate reconstructions have enhanced our understanding of how past climates have shaped present-day biodiversity. We hypothesize that the geographic extent of Pleistocene forest refugia and suitable habitat fluctuated significantly in time during the late Quaternary for chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes). Using bioclimatic variables representing monthly temperature and precipitation estimates, past human population density data, and an extensive database of georeferenced presence points, we built a model of changing habitat suitability for chimpanzees at fine spatio-temporal scales dating back to the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP). Our models cover a spatial resolution of 0.0467° (approximately 5.19 km2 grid cells) and a temporal resolution of between 1000 and 4000 years. Using our model, we mapped habitat stability over time using three approaches, comparing our modeled stability estimates to existing knowledge of Afrotropical refugia, as well as contemporary patterns of major keystone tropical food resources used by chimpanzees, figs (Moraceae), and palms (Arecacae). Results show habitat stability congruent with known glacial refugia across Africa, suggesting their extents may have been underestimated for chimpanzees, with potentially up to approximately 60,000 km2 of previously unrecognized glacial refugia. The refugia we highlight coincide with higher species richness for figs and palms. Our results provide spatio-temporally explicit insights into the role of refugia across the chimpanzee range, forming the empirical foundation for developing and testing hypotheses about behavioral, ecological, and genetic diversity with additional data. This methodology can be applied to other species and geographic areas when sufficient data are available.

Mapping suitable great ape habitat in and around the Lobéké National Park, South-East Cameroon.

As a result of extensive data collection efforts over the last 20-30 years, there is quite a good understanding of the large-scale geographic distribution and range limits of African great apes. However, as human activities increasingly fragment great ape spatial distribution, a better understanding of what constitutes suitable great ape habitat is needed to inform conservation and resource extraction management. Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes troglodytes) and gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) inhabit the Lobéké National Park and its surrounding forest management units (FMUs) in South-East Cameroon. Both park and neighboring forestry concessions require reliable evidence on key factors driving great ape distribution for their management plans, yet this information is largely missing and incomplete. This study aimed at mapping great ape habitat suitability in the area and at identifying the most influential predictors among three predictor categories, including landscape predictors (dense forest, swampy forest, distance to water bodies, and topography), human disturbance predictors (hunting, deforestation, distance to roads, and population density), and bioclimatic predictor (annual precipitation). We found that about 63% of highly to moderately suitable chimpanzee habitat occurred within the Lobéké National Park, while only 8.4% of similar habitat conditions occurred within FMUs. For gorillas, highly and moderately suitable habitats occurred within the Lobéké National Park and its surrounding FMUs (82.6% and 65.5%, respectively). Key determinants of suitable chimpanzee habitat were hunting pressure and dense forest, with species occurrence probability optimal at relatively lower hunting rates and at relatively high-dense forest areas. Key determinants of suitable gorilla habitat were hunting pressure, dense forests, swampy forests, and slope, with species occurrence probability optimal at relatively high-dense and swampy forest areas and at areas with mild slopes. Our findings show differential response of the two ape species to forestry activities in the study area, thus aligning with previous studies.

Effects of Land cover change on Great Apes distribution at the Lobéké National Park and its surrounding Forest Management Units, South-East Cameroon. A 13 year time series analysis.

Understanding the effects of land cover change on wildlife distribution is very important for resource management and conservation planning. This paper aimed at detecting the effects of land cover change on great apes distribution at the Lobéké National Park and its bounded forest management units (FMUs). Data on great ape nests were collected in the field for the years 2001 and 2014 through distance sampling with line transects. Landsat TM images of South-East Cameroon for the years 2001 and 2014 were acquired from earth explorer and corrected atmospherically for proper visualization. An area of interest comprising the Lobéké National Park and its FMUs was extracted for classification and change detection. A comparison in great apes nest distribution and change per land cover change category was done for both years through point pattern analysis, whereas a time series analysis of the detected land cover change impacts on great apes nest distribution for a period of 13 years was modeled using logistic growth and regression equations in Vensim 7.2. The results could illustrate that, as land cover changes from one cover type in 2001 to another in 2014, increases or decreases in great apes nests were observed within each changed area.