Molecular epidemiology identifies the expansion of the DENV2 epidemic lineage from the French Caribbean Islands to French Guiana and mainland France, 2023 to 2024.

In 2023, dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV2) affected most French overseas territories. In the French Caribbean Islands, viral circulation continues with > 30,000 suspected infections by March 2024. Genome sequence analysis reveals that the epidemic lineage in the French Caribbean islands has also become established in French Guiana but not Réunion. It has moreover seeded autochthonous circulation events in mainland France. To guide prevention of further inter-territorial spread and DENV introduction in non-endemic settings, continued molecular surveillance and mosquito control are essential.

Outbreak of Chikungunya in the French Caribbean Islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe: Findings from a Hospital-Based Surveillance System (2013-2015).

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) emerged in the Caribbean island of Saint-Martin in December 2013. We implemented a hospital-based surveillance system to detect and describe CHIKV cases including severe forms of the infection and deaths in the islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe. A case was defined as a patient with a CHIKV laboratory confirmation cared for in a public hospital for chikungunya for at least 24 hours, and a severe CHIKV case was defined as a CHIKV case presenting one or more organ failures. Sociodemographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected and cases classified into severe or nonsevere based on medical records. From December 2013 to January 2015, a total of 1,836 hospitalized cases were identified. Rate of hospital admissions for CHIKV infection was 60 per 10,000 suspected clinical CHIKV cases and severity accounted for 12 per 10,000. A total of 74 deaths related to CHIKV infection occurred. Infants and elderly people were more frequently hospitalized compared with others and severity was more frequently reported in elderly subjects and subjects with underlying health condition. Fifteen neonatal infections consecutive to mother-to-child transmission were diagnosed, seven of which were severe. The most vulnerable groups of the population, such as the elderly, infants, individuals with comorbidities, and pregnant women, should remain the main targets of public health priorities.

Prognostic factors of inhospital death in elderly patients: a time-to-event analysis of a cohort study in Martinique (French West Indies).

OBJECTIVE: The primary objective was to identify predictive factors of inhospital death in a population of patients aged 65 years or older hospitalised with Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection. The secondary aim was to develop and validate a predictive score for inhospital death based on the predictors identified. DESIGN: Longitudinal retrospective study from January to December 2014. SETTING: University Hospital of Martinique. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥65 years, admitted to any clinical ward and who underwent reverse transcription PCR testing for CHIKV infection. OUTCOME: Independent predictors of inhospital death were identified using multivariable Cox regression modelling. A predictive score was created using the adjusted HRs of factors associated with inhospital death. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to determine the best cut-off value. Bootstrap analysis was used to evaluate internal validity. RESULTS: Overall, 385 patients aged ≥65 years were included (average age: 80±8 years). Half were women, and 35 (9.1%) died during the hospital stay. Seven variables were found to be independently associated with inhospital death (concurrent cardiovascular disorders: HR 11.8, 95% CI 4.5 to 30.8; concurrent respiratory infection: HR 9.6, 95% CI 3.4 to 27.2; concurrent sensorimotor deficit: HR 7.6, 95% CI 2.0 to 28.5; absence of musculoskeletal pain: HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.3; history of alcoholism: HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.1 to 5.9; concurrent digestive symptoms: HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 4.9; presence of confusion or delirium: HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.2). The score ranged from 0 to 25, with an average of 6±6. The area under the curve was excellent (0.90; 95% CI 0.86 to 0.94). The best cut-off value was a score ≥8 points, with a sensitivity of 91% (82%-100%) and specificity of 75% (70%-80%). CONCLUSIONS: Signs observed by the clinician during the initial examination could predict inhospital death. The score will be helpful for early management of elderly subjects presenting within 7 days of symptom onset in the context of CHIKV outbreaks.

Guillain-Barré Syndrome Associated With Zika Virus Infection in Martinique in 2016: A Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) has been reported to be associated with Zika virus (ZIKV) infection in case reports and retrospective studies, mostly on the basis of serological tests, with the problematic cross-reacting antibodies of the Flavivirus genus. Some GBS cases do not exhibit a high level of diagnostic certainty. This prospective study aimed to describe the clinical profiles and the frequency of GBS associated with ZIKV during the ZIKV outbreak in Martinique in 2016. METHODS: We recorded prospective data from GBS meeting levels 1 or 2 of diagnostic certainty for the Brighton Collaboration, with proof of recent ZIKV infection and negative screening for etiologies of GBS. RESULTS: Of the sample of 34 patients with suspected GBS during the outbreak, 30 had a proven presence of GBS, and 23 had a recent ZIKV infection. The estimated GBS incidence rate ratio (2016 vs 2006-2015) was 4.52 (95% confidence interval, 2.80-7.64; P = .0001). Recent ZIKV infection was confirmed by urine reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) analysis in 17 cases and by serology in 6 cases. Patients, 65% of whom were male, had a median age of 61 years (interquartile range, 56-71 years) and experienced severe GBS. Electrophysiological tests were consistent with the primary demyelinating form of the disease. CONCLUSIONS: ZIKV infection is usually benign, when symptomatic, but in countries at risk of ZIKV epidemics, adequate intensive care bed capacity is required for management of severe GBS cases. Arbovirus RNA detection by RT-PCR should be part of the management of GBS cases.

Real-Time Assessment of Health-Care Requirements During the Zika Virus Epidemic in Martinique.

The spread of Zika virus in the Americas has been associated with a surge in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) cases. Given the severity of GBS, territories affected by Zika virus need to plan health-care resources to manage GBS patients. To inform such planning in Martinique, we analyzed Zika virus surveillance and GBS data from Martinique in real time with a modeling framework that captured dynamics of the Zika virus epidemic, the risk of GBS in Zika virus-infected persons, and the clinical management of GBS cases. We compared our estimates with those from the 2013-2014 Zika virus epidemic in French Polynesia. We were able to predict just a few weeks into the epidemic that, due to lower transmission potential and lower probability of developing GBS following infection in Martinique, the total number of GBS cases in Martinique would be substantially lower than suggested by simple extrapolations from French Polynesia. We correctly predicted that 8 intensive-care beds and 7 ventilators would be sufficient to treat GBS cases. This study showcased the contribution of modeling to inform local health-care planning during an outbreak. Timely studies that estimate the proportion of infected persons that seek care are needed to improve the predictive power of such approaches.

Zika emergence in the French Territories of America and description of first confirmed cases of Zika virus infection on Martinique, November 2015 to February 2016.

Following of the emergence of Zika virus in Brazil in 2015, an epidemiological surveillance system was quickly implemented in the French overseas Territories of America (FTA) according to previous experience with dengue and chikungunya and has detected first cases of Zika. General practitioners and medical microbiologists were invited to report all clinically suspected cases of Zika, laboratory investigations were systematically conducted (RT-PCR). On 18 December, the first autochthonous case of Zika virus infection was confirmed by RT-PCR on French Guiana and Martinique, indicating introduction of Zika virus in FTA. The viral circulation of Zika virus was then also confirmed on Guadeloupe and Saint-Martin. We report here early findings on 203 confirmed cases of Zika virus infection identified by RT-PCR or seroneutralisation on Martinique Island between 24 November 2015 and 20 January 2016. All cases were investigated. Common clinical signs were observed (maculopapular rash, arthralgia, fever, myalgia and conjunctival hyperaemia) among these patients, but the rash, the foundation of our case definition, may be absent in a significant proportion of patients (16%). These results are important for the implementation of a suspected case definition, the main tool for epidemiological surveillance, in territories that may be affected by ZIKV emergence, including Europe.

The application of new molecular methods in the investigation of a waterborne outbreak of norovirus in Denmark, 2012.

In December 2012, an outbreak of acute gastrointestinal illness occurred in a geographical distinct area in Denmark covering 368 households. A combined microbiological, epidemiological and environmental investigation was initiated to understand the outbreak magnitude, pathogen(s) and vehicle in order to control the outbreak. Norovirus GII.4 New Orleans 2009 variant was detected in 15 of 17 individual stool samples from 14 households. Norovirus genomic material from water samples was detected and quantified and sequencing of longer parts of the viral capsid region (>1000 nt) were applied to patient and water samples. All five purposely selected water samples tested positive for norovirus GII in levels up to 1.8×10(4) genomic units per 200 ml. Identical norovirus sequences were found in all 5 sequenced stool samples and 1 sequenced water sample, a second sequenced water sample showed 1 nt (<0.1%) difference. In a cohort study, including 256 participants, cases were defined as residents of the area experiencing diarrhoea or vomiting onset on 12-14 December 2012. We found an attack rate of 51%. Being a case was associated with drinking tap-water on 12-13 December (relative risk = 6.0, 95%CI: 1.6-22) and a dose-response relation for the mean glasses of tap-water consumed was observed. Environmental investigations suggested contamination from a sewage pipe to the drinking water due to fall in pressure during water supply system renovations. The combined microbiological, epidemiological and environmental investigations strongly indicates the outbreak was caused by norovirus contamination of the water supply system.