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1.
PNAS Nexus ; 3(8): pgae325, 2024 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39161730

RESUMEN

The regulation of inflammation is a critical aspect of disease tolerance and naturally acquired clinical immunity to malaria. Here, we demonstrate using RNA sequencing and epigenetic landscape profiling by cytometry by time-of-flight, that the regulation of inflammatory pathways during asymptomatic parasitemia occurs downstream of pathogen sensing-at the epigenetic level. The abundance of certain epigenetic markers (methylation of H3K27 and dimethylation of arginine residues) and decreased prevalence of histone variant H3.3 correlated with suppressed cytokine responses among monocytes of Ugandan children. Such an epigenetic signature was observed across diverse immune cell populations and not only characterized active asymptomatic parasitemia but also correlated with future long-term disease tolerance and clinical immunity when observed in uninfected children. Pseudotime analyses revealed a potential trajectory of epigenetic change that correlated with a child's age and recent parasite exposure and paralleled the acquisition of clinical immunity. Thus, our data support a model whereby exposure to Plasmodium falciparum induces epigenetic changes that regulate excessive inflammation and contribute to naturally acquire clinical immunity to malaria.

2.
medRxiv ; 2024 Jun 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38947035

RESUMEN

Background: Intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in pregnancy (IPTp) can improve birth outcomes, but whether it confers benefits to postnatal growth is unclear. We investigated the effect of IPTp on infant growth in Uganda and its pathways of effects using causal mediation analyses. Methods: We analyzed data from 633 infants born to mothers enrolled in a randomized trial of monthly IPTp with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) vs sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) (NCT02793622). Weight and length were measured from 0-12 months of age. Using generalized linear models, we estimated effects of DP vs. SP on gravidity-stratified mean length-for-age (LAZ) and weight-for-length Z-scores (WLZ). We investigated mediation by placental malaria, gestational weight change, maternal anemia, maternal inflammation-related proteins, preterm birth, birth length, and birth weight. Mediation models adjusted for infant sex, gravidity, gestational age at enrollment, maternal age, maternal parasitemia at enrollment, education, and wealth. Findings: SP increased LAZ by 0.18-0.28 Z from birth through age 4 months compared to DP, while DP increased WLZ by 0.11-0.28 Z from 2-8 months compared to SP among infants of multigravidae. We did not observe these differences among primigravida. Mediators of SP included increased birth weight and length and maternal stem cell factor at delivery. Mediators of DP included placental malaria and birth length, maternal IL-18, CDCP1, and CD6 at delivery. Interpretation: In high malaria transmission settings, different IPTp regimens influenced infant growth among multigravidae through distinct pathways in the period of exclusive breastfeeding, when few other interventions are available. Funding: Stanford Center for Innovation and Global Health, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

3.
medRxiv ; 2024 Jun 21.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38947039

RESUMEN

Background: Understanding COVID-19's impact on children is vital for public health policy, yet age-specific data is scarce, especially in Uganda. This study examines SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and risk factors among Ugandan children at two timepoints, along with COVID-19-related knowledge and practices in households, including adult vaccination status. Methods: Baseline surveys were conducted in 12 communities from April to May 2021 (post-Alpha wave) and follow-up surveys in 32 communities from November 2021 to March 2022 (Omicron wave). Household questionnaires and blood samples were collected to test for malaria by microscopy and for SARS-CoV-2 using a Luminex assay. Seroprevalence was estimated at both the survey and community level. Mixed-effects logistic regression models assessed the association between individual and household factors and SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity in children, adjusting for household clustering. Results: More households reported disruptions in daily life at baseline compared to follow-up, though economic impacts lingered. By the follow-up survey, 52.7% of adults had received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose. Overall seroprevalence in children was higher at follow-up compared to baseline (71.6% versus 19.2%, p < 0.001). Seroprevalence in children ranged across communities from 6-37% at baseline and 50-90% at follow-up. At baseline, children from the poorest households were more likely to be infected. Increasing age remained the only consistent risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion at both timepoints. Conclusions: Results indicate that a larger number of children were infected by the Delta and Omicron waves of COVID-19 compared to the Alpha wave. This study is the largest seroprevalence survey in children in Uganda, providing evidence that most children were infected with SARS-CoV-2 before the vaccine was widely available to pediatric populations. Pediatric infections were vastly underreported by case counts, highlighting the importance of seroprevalence surveys in assessing disease burden when testing and reporting rates are limited and many cases are mild or asymptomatic.

4.
Front Immunol ; 15: 1384361, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38994356

RESUMEN

Introduction: Maternal intervillous monocytes (MIMs) and fetal Hofbauer cells (HBCs) are myeloid-derived immune cells at the maternal-fetal interface. Maternal reproductive history is associated with differential risk of pregnancy complications. The molecular phenotypes and roles of these distinct monocyte/macrophage populations and the influence of gravidity on these phenotypes has not been systematically investigated. Methods: Here, we used RNA sequencing to study the transcriptional profiles of MIMs and HBCs in normal term pregnancies. Results: Our analyses revealed distinct transcriptomes of MIMs and HBCs. Genes involved in differentiation and cell organization pathways were more highly expressed in MIMs vs. HBCs. In contrast, HBCs had higher expression of genes involved in inflammatory responses and cell surface receptor signaling. Maternal gravidity influenced monocyte programming, as expression of pro-inflammatory molecules was significantly higher in MIMs from multigravidae compared to primigravidae. In HBCs, multigravidae displayed enrichment of gene pathways involved in cell-cell signaling and differentiation. Discussion: Our results demonstrated that MIMs and HBCs have highly divergent transcriptional signatures, reflecting their distinct origins, locations, functions, and roles in inflammatory responses. Furthermore, maternal gravidity influences the gene signatures of MIMs and HBCs, potentially modulating the interplay between tolerance and trained immunity. The phenomenon of reproductive immune memory may play a novel role in the differential susceptibility of primigravidae to pregnancy complications.


Asunto(s)
Macrófagos , Placenta , Transcriptoma , Femenino , Embarazo , Humanos , Macrófagos/inmunología , Macrófagos/metabolismo , Placenta/inmunología , Placenta/metabolismo , Perfilación de la Expresión Génica , Feto/inmunología , Adulto , Monocitos/inmunología , Monocitos/metabolismo
5.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 14488, 2024 06 24.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38914669

RESUMEN

Pyrethroid bednets treated with the synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO) offer the possibility of improved vector control in mosquito populations with metabolic resistance. In 2017-2019, we conducted a large-scale, cluster-randomised trial (LLINEUP) to evaluate long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) treated with a pyrethroid insecticide plus PBO (PBO LLINs), as compared to conventional, pyrethroid-only LLINs across 104 health sub-districts (HSDs) in Uganda. In LLINEUP, and similar trials in Tanzania, PBO LLINs were found to provide greater protection against malaria than conventional LLINs, reducing parasitaemia and vector density. In the LLINEUP trial, we conducted cross-sectional household entomological surveys at baseline and then every 6 months for two years, which we use here to investigate longitudinal changes in mosquito infection rate and genetic markers of resistance. Overall, 5395 female Anopheles mosquitoes were collected from 5046 households. The proportion of mosquitoes infected (PCR-positive) with Plasmodium falciparum did not change significantly over time, while infection with non-falciparum malaria decreased in An. gambiae s.s., but not An. funestus. The frequency of genetic markers associated with pyrethroid resistance increased significantly over time, but the rate of change was not different between the two LLIN types. The knock-down resistance (kdr) mutation Vgsc-995S declined over time as Vgsc-995F, the alternative resistance mutation at this codon, increased. Vgsc-995F appears to be spreading into Uganda. Distribution of LLINs in Uganda was previously found to be associated with reductions in parasite prevalence and vector density, but here we show that the proportion of infective mosquitoes remained stable across both PBO and non-PBO LLINs, suggesting that the potential for transmission persisted. The increased frequency of markers of pyrethroid resistance indicates that LLIN distribution favoured the evolution of resistance within local vectors and highlights the potential benefits of resistance management strategies.Trial registration: This study is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN17516395. Registered 14 February 2017, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN17516395 .


Asunto(s)
Anopheles , Resistencia a los Insecticidas , Mosquiteros Tratados con Insecticida , Control de Mosquitos , Mosquitos Vectores , Piretrinas , Animales , Anopheles/parasitología , Anopheles/genética , Anopheles/efectos de los fármacos , Resistencia a los Insecticidas/genética , Uganda/epidemiología , Mosquitos Vectores/genética , Mosquitos Vectores/parasitología , Mosquitos Vectores/efectos de los fármacos , Control de Mosquitos/métodos , Humanos , Piretrinas/farmacología , Insecticidas/farmacología , Malaria/epidemiología , Malaria/prevención & control , Malaria/transmisión , Malaria/parasitología , Femenino , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Plasmodium falciparum/efectos de los fármacos , Prevalencia , Marcadores Genéticos , Estudios Transversales , Malaria Falciparum/parasitología , Malaria Falciparum/epidemiología , Malaria Falciparum/prevención & control , Butóxido de Piperonilo/farmacología , Genotipo
6.
Malar J ; 23(1): 190, 2024 Jun 17.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38886782

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Well-built housing limits mosquito entry and can reduce malaria transmission. The association between community-level housing and malaria burden in Uganda was assessed using data from randomly selected households near 64 health facilities in 32 districts. METHODS: Houses were classified as 'improved' (synthetic walls and roofs, eaves closed or absent) or 'less-improved' (all other construction). Associations between housing and parasitaemia were made using mixed effects logistic regression (individual-level) and multivariable fractional response logistic regression (community-level), and between housing and malaria incidence using multivariable Poisson regression. RESULTS: Between November 2021 and March 2022, 4.893 children aged 2-10 years were enrolled from 3.518 houses; of these, 1.389 (39.5%) were classified as improved. Children living in improved houses had 58% lower odds (adjusted odds ratio = 0.42, 95% CI 0.33-0.53, p < 0.0001) of parasitaemia than children living in less-improved houses. Communities with > 67% of houses improved had a 63% lower parasite prevalence (adjusted prevalence ratio 0.37, 95% CI 0.19-0.70, p < 0.0021) and 60% lower malaria incidence (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.40, 95% CI 0.36-0.44, p < 0.0001) compared to communities with < 39% of houses improved. CONCLUSIONS: Improved housing was strongly associated with lower malaria burden across a range of settings in Uganda and should be utilized for malaria control.


Asunto(s)
Vivienda , Mosquiteros Tratados con Insecticida , Malaria , Control de Mosquitos , Uganda/epidemiología , Preescolar , Vivienda/estadística & datos numéricos , Niño , Humanos , Malaria/epidemiología , Malaria/prevención & control , Mosquiteros Tratados con Insecticida/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Control de Mosquitos/estadística & datos numéricos , Masculino , Incidencia , Prevalencia , Parasitemia/epidemiología , Parasitemia/parasitología
7.
J Infect Dis ; 230(2): 497-504, 2024 Aug 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38874098

RESUMEN

Newly arrived refugees offer insights into malaria epidemiology in their countries of origin. We evaluated asymptomatic refugee children within 7 days of arrival in Uganda from South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 2022 for parasitemia, parasite species, and Plasmodium falciparum drug resistance markers. Asymptomatic P. falciparum infections were common in both populations. Coinfection with P. malariae was more common in DRC refugees. Prevalences of markers of aminoquinoline resistance (PfCRT K76T, PfMDR1 N86Y) were much higher in South Sudan refugees, of antifolate resistance (PfDHFR C59R and I164L, PfDHPS A437G, K540E, and A581G) much higher in DRC refugees, and of artemisinin partial resistance (ART-R; PfK13 C469Y and A675V) moderate in both populations. Prevalences of most mutations differed from those seen in Ugandans attending health centers near the refugee centers. Refugee evaluations yielded insights into varied malaria epidemiology and identified markers of ART-R in 2 previously little-studied countries.


Asunto(s)
Antimaláricos , Resistencia a Medicamentos , Malaria Falciparum , Plasmodium falciparum , Proteínas Protozoarias , Refugiados , Humanos , Uganda/epidemiología , Antimaláricos/uso terapéutico , Antimaláricos/farmacología , Resistencia a Medicamentos/genética , Prevalencia , Preescolar , Plasmodium falciparum/efectos de los fármacos , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Malaria Falciparum/epidemiología , Malaria Falciparum/parasitología , Malaria Falciparum/tratamiento farmacológico , Femenino , Masculino , Niño , Proteínas Protozoarias/genética , Lactante , Proteínas de Transporte de Membrana/genética , Proteínas Asociadas a Resistencia a Múltiples Medicamentos/genética , Sudán/epidemiología , Biomarcadores/sangre , Artemisininas/uso terapéutico , Artemisininas/farmacología , Parasitemia/epidemiología , Parasitemia/tratamiento farmacológico , Plasmodium malariae/genética , Plasmodium malariae/efectos de los fármacos
8.
bioRxiv ; 2024 May 13.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38798500

RESUMEN

Background: Fetal growth restriction (FGR) is associated with perinatal death and other adverse birth outcomes, as well as long term complications including increased childhood morbidity, abnormal neurodevelopment, and cardio-metabolic diseases in adulthood. FGR has been associated with placental epigenetic reprogramming, which may mediate these long term outcomes. Placental malaria (PM) is the leading cause of FGR globally, but the impact on placental epigenetics is unknown. We hypothesized that methylomic profiling of placentas from non-malarial and malarial FGR would reveal common and distinct mechanistic pathways associated with FGR. Results: We used a methylation array to compare the CpG profiles between FGR from a cohort with no malaria exposure and a cohort of pregnancies complicated by both PM and FGR. Non-malarial FGR was associated with 65 differentially methylated CpGs, whereas PM-FGR was associated with 133 DMCs, compared to their corresponding controls. One DMC (cg16389901) was commonly hypomethylated in both groups, corresponding to the promoter region of BMP4 . Comparison of FGR vs. PM-FGR identified 522 DMCs between these two groups, which was not attributable to geographic location or different cellular compositions of these two groups. Conclusion: Placentas from pregnancies with PM-associated FGR showed distinct methylation profiles as compared to non-malarial FGR, suggesting novel epigenetic reprogramming in response to malaria. There may be distinct long-term health outcomes in FGR pregnancies also complicated by PM.

9.
medRxiv ; 2024 Mar 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38559091

RESUMEN

Background: Tororo District, Uganda experienced a dramatic decrease in malaria burden from 2015-19 following 5 years of indoor residual spraying (IRS) with carbamate (Bendiocarb) and then organophosphate (Actellic) insecticides. However, a marked resurgence occurred in 2020, which coincided with a change to a clothianidin-based IRS formulations (Fludora Fusion/SumiShield). To quantify the magnitude of the resurgence, investigate causes, and evaluate the impact of a shift back to IRS with Actellic in 2023, we assessed changes in malaria metrics in regions within and near Tororo District. Methods: Malaria surveillance data from Nagongera Health Center, Tororo District was included from 2011-2023. In addition, a cohort of 667 residents from 84 houses was followed from August 2020 through September 2023 from an area bordering Tororo and neighboring Busia District, where IRS has never been implemented. Cohort participants underwent passive surveillance for clinical malaria and active surveillance for parasitemia every 28 days. Mosquitoes were collected in cohort households every 2 weeks using CDC light traps. Female Anopheles were speciated and tested for sporozoites and phenotypic insecticide resistance. Temporal comparisons of malaria metrics were stratified by geographic regions. Findings: At Nagongera Health Center average monthly malaria cases varied from 419 prior to implementation of IRS; to 56 after 5 years of IRS with Bendiocarb and Actellic; to 1591 after the change in IRS to Fludora Fusion/SumiShield; to 155 after a change back to Actellic. Among cohort participants living away from the border in Tororo, malaria incidence increased over 8-fold (0.36 vs. 2.97 episodes per person year, p<0.0001) and parasite prevalence increased over 4-fold (17% vs. 70%, p<0.0001) from 2021 to 2022 when Fludora Fusion/SumiShield was used. Incidence decreased almost 5-fold (2.97 vs. 0.70, p<0.0001) and prevalence decreased by 39% (70% vs. 43%, p<0.0001) after shifting back to Actellic. There was a similar pattern among those living near the border in Tororo, with increased incidence between 2021 and 2022 (0.93 vs. 2.40, p<0.0001) followed by a decrease after the change to Actellic (2.40 vs. 1.33, p<0.001). Among residents of Busia, malaria incidence did not change significantly over the 3 years of observation. Malaria resurgence in Tororo was temporally correlated with the replacement of An. gambiae s.s. by An. funestus as the primary vector, with a marked decrease in the density of An. funestus following the shift back to IRS with Actellic. In Busia, An. gambiae s.s. remained the primary vector throughout the observation period. Sporozoite rates were approximately 50% higher among An. funestus compared to the other common malaria vectors. Insecticide resistance phenotyping of An. funestus revealed high tolerance to clothianidin, but full susceptibility to Actellic. Conclusions: A dramatic resurgence of malaria in Tororo was temporally associated with a change to clothianidin-based IRS formulations and emergence of An. funestus as the predominant vector. Malaria decreased after a shift back to IRS with Actellic. This study highlights the ability of malaria vectors to rapidly circumvent control efforts and the importance of high-quality surveillance systems to assess the impact of malaria control interventions and generate timely, actionable data.

10.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 11(4): ofae143, 2024 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38585183

RESUMEN

Background: Trials evaluating antimalarials for intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) have shown that dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) is a more efficacious antimalarial than sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP); however, SP is associated with higher birthweight, suggesting that SP demonstrates "nonmalarial" effects. Chemoprevention of nonmalarial febrile illnesses (NMFIs) was explored as a possible mechanism. Methods: In this secondary analysis, we leveraged data from 654 pregnant Ugandan women without HIV infection who participated in a randomized controlled trial comparing monthly IPTp-SP with IPTp-DP. Women were enrolled between 12 and 20 gestational weeks and followed through delivery. NMFIs were measured by active and passive surveillance and defined by the absence of malaria parasitemia. We quantified associations among IPTp regimens, incident NMFIs, antibiotic prescriptions, and birthweight. Results: Mean "birthweight for gestational age" Z scores were 0.189 points (95% CI, .045-.333) higher in women randomized to IPTp-SP vs IPTp-DP. Women randomized to IPTp-SP had fewer incident NMFIs (incidence rate ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, .58-.95), mainly respiratory NMFIs (incidence rate ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, .48-1.00), vs IPTp-DP. Counterintuitively, respiratory NMFI incidence was positively correlated with birthweight in multigravidae. In total 75% of respiratory NMFIs were treated with antibiotics. Although overall antibiotic prescriptions were similar between arms, for each antibiotic prescribed, "birthweight for gestational age" Z scores increased by 0.038 points (95% CI, .001-.074). Conclusions: Monthly IPTp-SP was associated with reduced respiratory NMFI incidence, revealing a potential nonmalarial mechanism of SP and supporting current World Health Organization recommendations for IPTp-SP, even in areas with high-grade SP resistance. While maternal respiratory NMFIs are known risk factors of lower birthweight, most women in our study were presumptively treated with antibiotics, masking the potential benefit of SP on birthweight mediated through preventing respiratory NMFIs.

11.
BMJ Open ; 14(3): e082227, 2024 Mar 27.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38538037

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: As malaria declines, low-density malaria infections (LMIs) represent an increasing proportion of infections and may have negative impacts on child health and cognition, necessitating development of targeted and effective solutions. This trial assesses the health, cognitive and socioeconomic impact of two strategies for detecting and treating LMI in a low transmission setting. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study is a 3-arm open-label individually randomised controlled trial enrolling 600 children aged 6 months to 10 years in Bagamoyo district, Tanzania. Children are randomised to one of three arms: active case detection with molecular (ACDm) testing by high volume quantitative PCR (qPCR), passive case detection also with molecular testing (PCDm) and a control of standard PCD using rapid diagnostics tests (RDTs). Over the 2-year trial, ACDm participants receive malaria testing using RDT and qPCR three times annually, and malaria testing by RDT only when presenting with fever. PCDm and PCD participants receive malaria testing by RDT and qPCR or RDT only, respectively, when presenting with fever. RDT or qPCR positive participants with uncomplicated malaria are treated with artemether lumefantrine. The primary outcome is cumulative incidence of all-cause sick visits. Secondary outcomes include fever episodes, clinical failure after fever episodes, adverse events, malaria, non-malarial infection, antibiotic use, anaemia, growth faltering, cognition and attention, school outcomes, immune responses, and socioeconomic effects. Outcomes are assessed through monthly clinical assessments and testing, and baseline and endline neurodevelopmental testing. The trial is expected to provide key evidence and inform policy on health, cognitive and socioeconomic impact of interventions targeting LMI in children. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Study is approved by Tanzania NatHREC and institutional review boards at University of California San Francisco and Ifakara Health Institute. Findings will be reported on ClinicalTrials.gov, in peer-reviewed journals and through stakeholder meetings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05567016.


Asunto(s)
Antimaláricos , Malaria , Niño , Humanos , Antimaláricos/uso terapéutico , Arteméter/uso terapéutico , Combinación Arteméter y Lumefantrina/uso terapéutico , Salud Infantil , Malaria/diagnóstico , Malaria/tratamiento farmacológico , Malaria/epidemiología , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Factores Socioeconómicos , Tanzanía , Lactante , Preescolar
12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38309043

RESUMEN

To support the pharmacokinetic study of sulfadoxine (SD) and pyrimethamine (PM) in pregnant women and children, sensitive methods with small sample volume are desirable. Here we report a method to determine SD and PM with microvolume plasma samples: 5 µL plasma samples were cleaned up by protein precipitation with acetonitrile. The deuterated analytes were used as the internal standards. The samples after cleanup were injected onto an ACE Excel SuperC18 column (50 × 2.1 mm, 1.7 µm, Hichrom Limited) connected to a Waters I class UPLC coupled with a Sciex Triple Quad 6500+ Mass Spectrometer and eluted with water and acetonitrile both containing 0.1% formic acid in a gradient mode at 0.8mL/min. Detection utilized ESI+ as the ion source and MRM as the quantification mode. The precursor-to-product ion transitions m/z 311→245 for SD and 249→233 for PM were selected for quantification. The ion transitions for the corresponding internal standards were 315→249 for SD-d4 and 254→235 for PM-d3. The simplest linear regression weighted by 1/x was used for the calibration curves. The calibration ranges were 1-200 µg/mL SD and 2 - 1000ng/mL PM. The mean (± standard deviation) recoveries were 94.3±3.2% (SD) and 97.0±1.5% (PM). The validated method was applied to analysis of 1719 clinical samples, demonstrating the method is suitable for the pharmacokinetic study with samples collected up to day 28 post-dose.


Asunto(s)
Pirimetamina , Espectrometría de Masas en Tándem , Embarazo , Niño , Humanos , Femenino , Cromatografía Líquida de Alta Presión/métodos , Espectrometría de Masas en Tándem/métodos , Sulfadoxina , Acetonitrilos
13.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 2430, 2024 01 29.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38286803

RESUMEN

Many studies have projected malaria risks with climate change scenarios by modelling one or two environmental variables and without the consideration of malaria control interventions. We aimed to predict the risk of malaria with climate change considering the influence of rainfall, humidity, temperatures, vegetation, and vector control interventions (indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN)). We used negative binomial models based on weekly malaria data from six facility-based surveillance sites in Uganda from 2010-2018, to estimate associations between malaria, environmental variables and interventions, accounting for the non-linearity of environmental variables. Associations were applied to future climate scenarios to predict malaria distribution using an ensemble of Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Predictions including interaction effects between environmental variables and interventions were also explored. The results showed upward trends in the annual malaria cases by 25% to 30% by 2050s in the absence of intervention but there was great variability in the predictions (historical vs RCP 4.5 medians [Min-Max]: 16,785 [9,902-74,382] vs 21,289 [11,796-70,606]). The combination of IRS and LLIN, IRS alone, and LLIN alone would contribute to reducing the malaria burden by 76%, 63% and 35% respectively. Similar conclusions were drawn from the predictions of the models with and without interactions between environmental factors and interventions, suggesting that the interactions have no added value for the predictions. The results highlight the need for maintaining vector control interventions for malaria prevention and control in the context of climate change given the potential public health and economic implications of increasing malaria in Uganda.


Asunto(s)
Mosquiteros Tratados con Insecticida , Insecticidas , Malaria , Humanos , Cambio Climático , Control de Mosquitos/métodos , Malaria/epidemiología , Malaria/prevención & control
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