Molecular Epidemiologic and Geo-Spatial Characterization of Staphylococcus aureus Cultured from Skin and Soft Tissue Infections from United States-Born and Immigrant Patients Living in New York City.

(1) Background: With increasing international travel and mass population displacement due to war, famine, climate change, and immigration, pathogens, such as Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus), can also spread across borders. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) most commonly causes skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs), as well as more invasive infections. One clonal strain, S. aureus USA300, originating in the United States, has spread worldwide. We hypothesized that S. aureus USA300 would still be the leading clonal strain among US-born compared to non-US-born residents, even though risk factors for SSTIs may be similar in these two populations (2) Methods: In this study, 421 participants presenting with SSTIs were enrolled from six community health centers (CHCs) in New York City. The prevalence, risk factors, and molecular characteristics for MRSA and specifically clonal strain USA300 were examined in relation to the patients' self-identified country of birth. (3) Results: Patients born in the US were more likely to have S. aureus SSTIs identified as MRSA USA300. While being male and sharing hygiene products with others were also significant risks for MRSA SSTI, we found exposure to animals, such as owning a pet or working at an animal facility, was specifically associated with risk for SSTIs caused by MRSA USA300. Latin American USA300 variant (LV USA300) was most common in participants born in Latin America. Spatial analysis showed that MRSA USA300 SSTI cases were more clustered together compared to other clonal types either from MRSA or methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) SSTI cases. (4) Conclusions: Immigrants with S. aureus infections have unique risk factors and S. aureus molecular characteristics that may differ from US-born patients. Hence, it is important to identify birthplace in MRSA surveillance and monitoring. Spatial analysis may also capture additional information for surveillance that other methods do not.

Machine learning to predict risk for community-onset Staphylococcus aureus infections in children living in southeastern United States.

Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) is known to cause human infections and since the late 1990s, community-onset antibiotic resistant infections (methicillin resistant S. aureus (MRSA)) continue to cause significant infections in the United States. Skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) still account for the majority of these in the outpatient setting. Machine learning can predict the location-based risks for community-level S. aureus infections. Multi-year (2002-2016) electronic health records of children <19 years old with S. aureus infections were queried for patient level data for demographic, clinical, and laboratory information. Area level data (Block group) was abstracted from U.S. Census data. A machine learning ecological niche model, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), was applied to assess model performance of specific place-based factors (determined a priori) associated with S. aureus infections; analyses were structured to compare methicillin resistant (MRSA) against methicillin sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) infections. Differences in rates of MRSA and MSSA infections were determined by comparing those which occurred in the early phase (2002-2005) and those in the later phase (2006-2016). Multi-level modeling was applied to identify risks factors for S. aureus infections. Among 16,124 unique patients with community-onset MRSA and MSSA, majority occurred in the most densely populated neighborhoods of Atlanta's metropolitan area. MaxEnt model performance showed the training AUC ranged from 0.771 to 0.824, while the testing AUC ranged from 0.769 to 0.839. Population density was the area variable which contributed the most in predicting S. aureus disease (stratified by CO-MRSA and CO-MSSA) across early and late periods. Race contributed more to CO-MRSA prediction models during the early and late periods than for CO-MSSA. Machine learning accurately predicts which densely populated areas are at highest and lowest risk for community-onset S. aureus infections over a 14-year time span.

Influence of Mask Wearing during COVID-19 Surge and Non-Surge Time Periods in Two K-12 Public School Districts in Georgia, USA.

BACKGROUND: Into the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the second year of in-person learning for many K-12 schools in the United States, the benefits of mitigation strategies in this setting are still unclear. We compare COVID-19 cases in school-aged children and adolescents between a school district with a mandatory mask-wearing policy to one with an optional mask-wearing policy, during and after the peak period of the Delta variant wave of infection. METHODS: COVID-19 cases during the Delta variant wave (August 2021) and post the wave (October 2021) were obtained from public health records. Cases of K-12 students, stratified by grade level (elementary, middle, and high school) and school districts across two counties, were included in the statistical and spatial analyses. COVID-19 case rates were determined and spatially mapped. Regression was performed adjusting for specific covariates. RESULTS: Mask-wearing was associated with lower COVID-19 cases during the peak Delta variant period; overall, regardless of the Delta variant period, higher COVID-19 rates were seen in older aged students. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the need for more layered prevention strategies and policies that take into consideration local community transmission levels, age of students, and vaccination coverage to ensure that students remain safe at school while optimizing their learning environment.

Predicting Low-Level Childhood Lead Exposure in Metro Atlanta Using Ensemble Machine Learning of High-Resolution Raster Cells.

Low-level lead exposure in children is a major public health issue. Higher-resolution spatial targeting would significantly improve county and state-wide policies and programs for lead exposure prevention that generally intervene across large geographic areas. We use stack-ensemble machine learning, including an elastic net generalized linear model, gradient-boosted machine, and deep neural network, to predict the number of children with venous blood lead levels (BLLs) ≥2 to <5 µg/dL and ≥5 µg/dL in ~1 km2 raster cells in the metro Atlanta region using a sample of 92,792 children ≤5 years old screened between 2010 and 2018. Permutation-based predictor importance and partial dependence plots were used for interpretation. Maps of predicted vs. observed values were generated to compare model performance. According to the EPA Toxic Release Inventory for air-based toxic release facility density, the percentage of the population below the poverty threshold, crime, and road network density was positively associated with the number of children with low-level lead exposure, whereas the percentage of the white population was inversely associated. While predictions generally matched observed values, cells with high counts of lead exposure were underestimated. High-resolution geographic prediction of lead-exposed children using ensemble machine learning is a promising approach to enhance lead prevention efforts.

Space-time trends of community-onset Staphylococcus aureus infections in children: a group-based trajectory modeling approach.

PURPOSE: Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) remains a serious cause of infections in the United States and worldwide. In the United States, methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) is the leading cause of skin and soft tissue infections. This study identifies 'best' to 'worst' infection trends from 2002 to 2016, using group-based trajectory modeling approach. METHODS: Electronic health records of children living in the southeastern United States with S. aureus infections from 2002 to 2016 were retrospectively studied, by applying a group-based trajectory model to estimate infection trends (low, high, very high), and then assess spatial significance of these trends at the census tract level; we focused on community-onset infections and not those considered healthcare acquired. RESULTS: Three methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) infection trends (low, high, very high) and three MRSA trends (low, high, very high) were identified from 2002 to 2016. Among census tracts with community-onset S. aureus cases, 29% of tracts belonged to the best trend (low infection) for both methicillin-resistant S. aureus and methicillin-susceptible S. aureus; higher proportions occurring in the less densely populated areas. Race disparities were seen with the worst methicillin-resistant S. aureus infection trends and were more often in urban areas. CONCLUSIONS: Group-based trajectory modeling identified unique trends of S. aureus infection rates over time and space, giving insight into the associated population characteristics which reflect these trends of community-onset infection.

Increased Risk of Sub-Clinical Blood Lead Levels in the 20-County Metro Atlanta, Georgia Area-A Laboratory Surveillance-Based Study.

Lead (Pb) is a naturally occurring, highly toxic metal that has adverse effects on children across a range of exposure levels. Limited screening programs leave many children at risk for chronic low-level lead exposure and there is little understanding of what factors may be used to identify children at risk. We characterize the distribution of blood lead levels (BLLs) in children aged 0-72 months and their associations with sociodemographic and area-level variables. Data from the Georgia Department of Public Health's Healthy Homes for Lead Prevention Program surveillance database was used to describe the distribution of BLLs in children living in the metro Atlanta area from 2010 to 2018. Residential addresses were geocoded, and "Hotspot" analyses were performed to determine if BLLs were spatially clustered. Multilevel regression models were used to identify factors associated with clinical BBLs (≥5 µg/dL) and sub-clinical BLLs (2 to <5 µg/dL). From 2010 to 2018, geographically defined hotspots for both clinical and sub-clinical BLLs diffused from the city-central area of Atlanta into suburban areas. Multilevel regression analysis revealed non-Medicaid insurance, the proportion of renters in a given geographical area, and proportion of individuals with a GED/high school diploma as predictors that distinguish children with BLLs 2 to <5 µg/dL from those with lower (<2 µg/dL) or higher (≥5 µg/dL) BLLs. Over half of the study children had BLLs between 2 and 5 µg/dL, a range that does not currently trigger public health measures but that could result in adverse developmental outcomes if ignored.

A Spatial Analysis of Health Disparities Associated with Antibiotic Resistant Infections in Children Living in Atlanta (2002-2010).

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic resistant bacteria like community-onset methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CO-MRSA) have continued to cause infections in children at alarming rates and are associated with health disparities. Geospatial analyses of individual and area level data can enhance disease surveillance and identify socio-demographic and geographic indicators to explain CO-MRSA disease transmission patterns and risks. METHODS: A case control epidemiology approach was undertaken to compare children with CO-MRSA to a noninfectious condition (unintentional traumatic brain injury (uTBI)). In order to better understand the impact of place based risks in developing these types of infections, data from electronic health records (EHR) were obtained from CO-MRSA cases and compared to EHR data from controls (uTBI). US Census data was used to determine area level data. Multi-level statistical models were performed using risk factors determined a priori and geospatial analyses were conducted and mapped. RESULTS: From 2002-2010, 4,613 with CO-MRSA and 34,758 with uTBI were seen from two pediatric hospitals in Atlanta, Georgia. Hispanic children had reduced odds of infection; females and public health insurance were more likely to have CO-MRSA. Spatial analyses indicate significant 'hot spots' for CO-MRSA and the overall spatial cluster locations, differed between CO-MRSA cases and uTBI controls. CONCLUSIONS: Differences exist in race, age, and type of health insurance between CO-MRSA cases compared to noninfectious control group. Geographic clustering of cases is distinct from controls, suggesting placed based factors impact risk for CO-MRSA infection.