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INTRODUCTION: Egypt has the highest prevalence of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) in the world, estimated nationally at 14.7%. HCV treatment consumes 20% ($80 million) of Egypt's annual health budget. Outcomes of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU may, in fact, largely depend on differences in the state of the disease, criteria and indications for admission, resource utilization, and intensity of treatment. AIM: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the efficacy of liver specific scoring models in predicting the outcome of critically ill cirrhotic patients in the ICU as it may help in prioritization of high risk patients and preservation of ICU resources. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Over one year, a total of 777 patients with End Stage Liver Disease (ESLD) due to HCV infection were included in this retrospective non-randomized human study. All statistical analyses were performed by the statistical software SPSS version 22.0 (SPSS, Chicago, IL, USA). Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) score, MELD score, MELD-Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit MELD and Refit MELD-Na were calculated on ICU admission. RESULTS: ICU admission was mainly due to Gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and Hepatic Encephalopathy (HE). Overall mortality was 27%. Age and sex showed no statistical difference between survivors and non survivors. Significantly higher mean values were observed for all models among individuals who died compared to survivors. MELD-Na was the most specific compared to the other scores. MELD-Na was highly predictive of mortality at an optimized cut-off value of 20.4 (AURC=0.789±0.03-CI 95%=0.711-0.865) while original MELD was highly predictive of mortality at an optimized cut-off value of 17.4 (AURC=0.678±0.01-CI 95%=0.613-0.682) denoting the importance of adding serum sodium to the original MELD. INR, serum creatinine, bilirubin, white blood cells count and hyponatremia were significantly higher in non survivors compared to survivors, while hypoalbuminemia showed no statistical difference. The advent of Hepatorenal Syndrome (HRS) and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis (SBP) carried worse prognosis. Hyponatremia and number of transfused blood bags were additional independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSION: In cirrhosis of liver, due to HCV infection, patients who died during their ICU stay displayed significantly higher values on all prognostic scores at admission. The addition of sodium to MELD score greatly improves the predictive accuracy of mortality. MELD-Na showed the highest predictive value of all scores.
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Treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis C with the current standard pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) and ribavirin achieves overall response (SVR) rates of ~55%. A role of CD4+ CD25+ regulatory T cells (Treg cells) has been proposed as they can suppress HCV-specific T cells in HCV-infected patients. Patients with chronic HCV legible for PEG-IFN plus ribavirin treatment, were classified according to their response to treatment into two groups (responders and non-responders, 32 and 27 patients respectively). Blood and plasma samples were collected at the start of treatment and at 12 and 24 weeks during treatment. Immunophenotyping by flow cytometry for Treg cells, the FOXP-3 expression using real-time PCR and measurement of IL-10, TGF-ß CXCL-9 and CXCL-10 were performed. Increased expression of Treg cells was detected in patients who didn't respond to treatment before and during treatment. Also, the levels of IL-10, TGF-ß, CXCL-9 and CXCL-10 revealed significant increase.in non-responders all through compared to responders group. Evaluation of Treg cells, cytokines (IL-10 & TGF-ß) and chemokines (CXCL-9 & CXCL-10) before starting the treatment could be a predictor of response to treatment with PEG-IFN plus ribavirin. The optimum levels which would differentiate between responders and non-responders are needed to be defined before-hand.
