Fall frequency and risk assessment in early Parkinson's disease.

BACKGROUND: We sought to define the frequency of falls in early PD and assess potential risk factors for falls in this population. METHODS: We analyzed the data from two randomized, placebo controlled trials (NET-PD FS1 and FS-TOO) of 413 individuals with early PD over 18 months of follow-up in FS1 and 12 months in FS-TOO. Falls were defined as any report of falls on the UPDRS or the adverse event log. We assessed the frequency of falls overall and by age. The relationship between prespecified fall risk markers and the probability of falling was assessed using logistic and multiple logistic regression. A hurdle Poisson model was used to jointly model the probability of remaining fall-free and the number of falls. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 23% of participants fell, and 11% were habitual fallers. In a multiple logistic regression model, age, baseline UPDRS Falling score, and baseline PDQ-39 scores were associated with subsequent fall risk (p < 0.001). Similarly, in a hurdle Poisson regression model, age, baseline UPDRS falling item, and baseline PDQ-39 were all significantly related to the probability of falling, but only UPDRS falling >0 was associated with the number of falls. CONCLUSION: Falls are frequent and are associated with impaired quality of life, even in early PD. Current standard rating scales do not sufficiently explain future fall risk in the absence of a prior fall history. New assessment methods for falls and postural instability are required to better evaluate this important problem in clinical trials and clinical practice.

Optimizing the ongoing search for new treatments for Parkinson disease: using futility designs.

Many agents are being considered for treatment of Parkinson disease (PD). Given the large number of agents and the limited resources to evaluate new agents, it is essential to reduce the likelihood of advancing ineffective agents into large, long-term Phase III trials. Futility design methodology addresses this goal. The authors describe how a single-arm Phase II futility study uses a short-term outcome to compare a treatment group response to a predetermined hypothesized or historically based control response. The authors present advantages and limitations of futility designs along with examples derived from the data archive of a large Phase III efficacy study of treatments to delay PD progression, the Deprenyl And Tocopherol Antioxidative Therapy Of Parkinsonism (DATATOP) trial. Using the same control progression rate and treatment effect assumptions used to power the original DATATOP trial, the authors calculated the number of subjects needed to conduct two 12-month futility studies. DATATOP was designed to enroll 800 patients. Using data on 124 consecutive subjects randomized into each of the DATATOP treatment groups, the authors identified tocopherol as futile and deprenyl as worthy of further study. Using Phase II information, DATATOP could have been simplified from a 2 x 2 factorial design to a comparison of deprenyl vs placebo. While not testing efficacy, futility designs provide a strategy for discarding treatments unlikely to be effective in Phase III. A limitation is the dependence on historical data or hypothesized outcomes for untreated controls. Futility studies may decrease the time to identify treatments unworthy of further pursuit and reduce subjects' exposure to futile treatments.