The changing contribution of top-down and bottom-up limitation of mesopredators during 220 years of land use and climate change.

Apex predators may buffer bottom-up driven ecosystem change, as top-down suppression may dampen herbivore and mesopredator responses to increased resource availability. However, theory suggests that for this buffering capacity to be realized, the equilibrium abundance of apex predators must increase. This raises the question: will apex predators maintain herbivore/mesopredator limitation, if bottom-up change relaxes resource constraints? Here, we explore changes in mesopredator (red fox Vulpes vulpes) abundance over 220 years in response to eradication and recovery of an apex predator (Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx), and changes in land use and climate which are linked to resource availability. A three-step approach was used. First, recent data from Finland and Sweden were modelled to estimate linear effects of lynx density, land use and winter temperature on fox density. Second, lynx density, land use and winter temperature was estimated in a 22 650 km2 focal area in boreal and boreo-nemoral Sweden in the years 1830, 1920, 2010 and 2050. Third, the models and estimates were used to project historic and future fox densities in the focal area. Projected fox density was lowest in 1830 when lynx density was high, winters cold and the proportion of cropland low. Fox density peaked in 1920 due to lynx eradication, a mesopredator release boosted by favourable bottom-up changes - milder winters and cropland expansion. By 2010, lynx recolonization had reduced fox density, but it remained higher than in 1830, partly due to the bottom-up changes. Comparing 1830 to 2010, the contribution of top-down limitation decreased, while environment enrichment relaxed bottom-up limitation. Future scenarios indicated that by 2050, lynx density would have to increase by 79% to compensate for a projected climate-driven increase in fox density. We highlight that although top-down limitation in theory can buffer bottom-up change, this requires compensatory changes in apex predator abundance. Hence apex predator recolonization/recovery to historical levels would not be sufficient to compensate for widespread changes in climate and land use, which have relaxed the resource constraints for many herbivores and mesopredators. Variation in bottom-up conditions may also contribute to context dependence in apex predator effects.

The influence of spatiotemporal conditions and personality on survival in reintroductions-evolutionary implications.

Personality exists in non-human animals and can impact fitness. There is, however, a shortage of empirical studies in certain areas within the field, and fundamental evolutionary theory on personality remains largely untested. For example, little is known on how variation in personality is maintained over evolutionary time. Theory suggests that fluctuating selection pressures due to spatiotemporal variation in conditions, e.g. food availability, is a possible mechanism and a few studies have shown that the success of different personality types varies with spatiotemporal conditions. However, it remains unknown whether different mechanisms can maintain personality within a species. Here we use a reintroduction programme for the critically endangered European mink (Mustela lutreola) to test whether multiple personality trait domains (boldness, exploration and sociability) affected survival in two different years and islands. This was done through pre-release personality tests and post-release radio-tracking monitoring. Survival was positively correlated with boldness, whereas the relationship with exploration was either negative or positive depending on year/island. The results show a complex relationship between personality and survival and suggest that exploration can be maintained over evolutionary time via spatiotemporal variation in conditions. However, in contrast to exploration, boldness did not vary spatiotemporally and sociability had no impact on survival. This indicates that different personality trait domains might be maintained by different mechanisms. To date, personality has been studied primarily within behavioural sciences, but through empirical findings we highlight the importance of personality also in ecology and conservation biology.

Implications of climate and land-use change for landscape processes, biodiversity, ecosystem services, and governance.

This introduction to the Special Issue summarizes the results of 14 scientific articles from the interdisciplinary research program Ekoklim at Stockholm University, Sweden. In this program, we investigate effects of changing climate and land use on landscape processes, biodiversity, and ecosystem services, and analyze issues related to adaptive governance in the face of climate and land-use change. We not only have a research focus on the 22 650 km(2) Norrström catchment surrounding lake Mälaren in south-central Sweden, but we also conduct research in other Swedish regions. The articles presented here show complex interactions between multiple drivers of change, as well as feedback processes at different spatiotemporal scales. Thus, the Ekoklim program highlights and deals with issues relevant for the future challenges society will face when land-use change interacts with climate change.

A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra.

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930-1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.

The relationship between wolverine and larger predators, lynx and wolf, in a historical ecosystem context.

Apex predators play an important role in shaping ecosystem structure. They may suppress smaller predators (mesopredators) but also subsidize scavengers via carrion provisioning. However, the importance of these interactions can change with ecosystem context. The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is a cold-adapted carnivore and facultative scavenger. It has a circumboreal distribution, where it could be either suppressed or subsidized by larger predators. In Scandinavia, the wolverine might interact with two larger predators, wolf (Canis lupus) and lynx (Lynx lynx), but human persecution decimated the populations in the nineteenth and early twentieth century. We investigated potential relationships between wolverine and the larger predators using hunting bag statistics from 15 Norwegian and Swedish counties in 1846-1922. Our best models showed a positive association between wolverine and lynx trends, taking ecological and human factors into account. There was also a positive association between year-to-year fluctuations in wolverine and wolf in the latter part of the study period. We suggest these associations could result from positive lynx-wolverine interactions through carrion provisioning, while wolves might both suppress wolverine and provide carrion with the net effect becoming positive when wolf density drops below a threshold. Wolverines could thus benefit from lynx presence and low-to-intermediate wolf densities.

Status and ecological effects of the world's largest carnivores.

Large carnivores face serious threats and are experiencing massive declines in their populations and geographic ranges around the world. We highlight how these threats have affected the conservation status and ecological functioning of the 31 largest mammalian carnivores on Earth. Consistent with theory, empirical studies increasingly show that large carnivores have substantial effects on the structure and function of diverse ecosystems. Significant cascading trophic interactions, mediated by their prey or sympatric mesopredators, arise when some of these carnivores are extirpated from or repatriated to ecosystems. Unexpected effects of trophic cascades on various taxa and processes include changes to bird, mammal, invertebrate, and herpetofauna abundance or richness; subsidies to scavengers; altered disease dynamics; carbon sequestration; modified stream morphology; and crop damage. Promoting tolerance and coexistence with large carnivores is a crucial societal challenge that will ultimately determine the fate of Earth's largest carnivores and all that depends upon them, including humans.

Life history traits in a cyclic ecosystem: a field experiment on the arctic fox.

The reproduction of many species depends strongly on variation in food availability. The main prey of the arctic fox in Fennoscandia are cyclic small rodents, and its number of litters and litter size vary depending on the phase of the rodent cycle. In this experiment, we studied if the arctic fox adjusts its reproduction as a direct response to food abundance, in accordance with the food limitation hypothesis, or if there are additional phase-dependent trade-offs that influence its reproduction. We analysed the weaning success, i.e. proportion of arctic fox pairs established during mating that wean a litter in summer, of 422 pairs of which 361 were supplementary winter fed, as well as the weaned litter size of 203 litters of which 115 were supplementary winter fed. Females without supplementary winter food over-produced cubs in relation to food abundance in the small rodent increase phase, i.e. the litter size was equal to that in the peak phase when food was more abundant. The litter size for unfed females was 6.38 in the increase phase, 7.11 in the peak phase and 3.84 in the decrease phase. The litter size for supplementary winter-fed litters was 7.95 in the increase phase, 10.61 in the peak phase and 7.86 in the decrease phase. Thus, feeding had a positive effect on litter size, but it did not diminish the strong impact of the small rodent phase, supporting phase-dependent trade-offs in addition to food determining arctic fox reproduction.

Ecosystem restoration with teeth: what role for predators?

Recent advances highlight the potential for predators to restore ecosystems and confer resilience against globally threatening processes, including climate change and biological invasions. However, releasing the ecological benefits of predators entails significant challenges. Here, we discuss the economic, environmental and social considerations affecting predator-driven ecological restoration programmes, and suggest approaches for reducing the undesirable impacts of predators. Because the roles of predators are context dependent, we argue for increased emphasis on predator functionality in ecosystems and less on the identities and origins of species and genotypes. We emphasise that insufficient attention is currently given to the importance of variation in the social structures and behaviours of predators in influencing the dynamics of trophic interactions. Lastly, we outline experiments specifically designed to clarify the ecological roles of predators and their potential utility in ecosystem restoration.

Trophic control of mesopredators in terrestrial ecosystems: top-down or bottom-up?

It has been argued that widespread extinctions of top predators have changed terrestrial ecosystem structures through mesopredator release, where increased abundances of medium-sized predators have detrimental effects on prey communities. This top-down concept has received much attention within conservation biology, but few studies have demonstrated the phenomenon. The concept has been criticized since alternative explanations involving bottom-up impacts from bioclimatic effects on ecosystem productivity and from anthropogenic habitat change are rarely considered. We analyse the response of a mesopredator (the red fox) to declines in top predators (wolf and Eurasian lynx) and agricultural expansion over 90 years in Sweden, taking bioclimatic effects into account. We show a top-down mesopredator release effect, but ecosystem productivity determined its strength. The impacts of agricultural activity were mediated by their effects on top predator populations. Thus, both top-down and bottom-up processes need to be understood for effective preservation of biodiversity in anthropogenically transformed ecosystems.

DNA analysis on fox faeces and competition induced niche shifts.

Interference competition can force inferior competitors to change their distribution patterns. It is, however, possible that the dominant competitor poses a higher threat during certain times of the year, for example during reproduction. In such cases, the inferior competitor is expected to change its distribution accordingly. We used a molecular species identification method on faeces to investigate how the spatial overlap between arctic and red foxes changes between seasons. The results show that arctic and red foxes are sympatric during winter, but allopatric in summer as arctic foxes retreat to higher altitudes further from the tree-line during the breeding season.

Exclusion by interference competition? The relationship between red and arctic foxes.

The distribution of many predators may be limited by interactions with larger predator species. The arctic fox in mainland Europe is endangered, while the red fox is increasing its range in the north. It has been suggested that the southern distribution limit of the arctic fox is determined by interspecific competition with the red fox. This has been criticised, on the basis that the species co-exist on a regional scale. However, if the larger red fox is superior and interspecific competition important, the arctic fox should avoid close contact, especially during the breeding season. Consequently, the distribution of breeding dens for the two species would be segregated on a much smaller spatial and temporal scale, in areas where they are sympatric. We tested this hypothesis by analysing den use of reproducing arctic and red foxes over 9 years in Sweden. High quality dens were inhabited by reproducing arctic foxes more often when no red foxes bred in the vicinity. Furthermore, in two out of three cases when arctic foxes did reproduce near red foxes, juveniles were killed by red foxes. We also found that breeding arctic foxes occupied dens at higher altitudes than red foxes did. In a large-scale field experiment, red foxes were removed, but the results were not conclusive. However, we conclude that on the scale of individual territories, arctic foxes avoid areas with red foxes. Through interspecific interference competition, the red fox might thus be excluding the arctic fox from breeding in low altitude habitat, which is most important in years when food abundance is limited and competition is most fierce. With high altitude refuges being less suitable, even small-scale behavioural effects could scale up to significant effects at the population level.