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1.
Int J Epidemiol ; 52(1): 14-21, 2023 02 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36326585

RESUMEN

The screening method provides a simple and rapid way of estimating vaccine effectiveness. This paper discusses the validity of the screening method with particular reference to bias and precision. Methods for correcting confounding, adjusting for covariates and over-dispersion, and deriving confidence limits are discussed in a modelling framework. The methods are illustrated using data on measles and pertussis vaccines.


Asunto(s)
Sarampión , Eficacia de las Vacunas , Humanos , Lactante , Vacuna contra la Tos Ferina , Sarampión/prevención & control , Vacuna Antisarampión , Sesgo
2.
Diabet Med ; 37(6): 1023-1029, 2020 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31943318

RESUMEN

AIM: Clinicians mediate access to new technologies. Consequently, their views on specific devices may influence user access to diabetes technology in mainstream care. As yet, little is known about clinicians' views about closed-loop systems. This qualitative study explored clinicians' views on the likely impacts of future closed-loop systems in mainstream diabetes care in England. METHODS: We conducted interviews with 36 clinicians from a range of professional backgrounds in five hospital outpatient clinics (two adult, two pregnancy, one paediatric) in England to explore possible consequences of closed-loop systems for users and clinicians. Data analysis utilized a framework approach. RESULTS: Clinicians reported a range of expected benefits for future users, including improved glucose control and quality of life. Expected burdens included continued need for manual input and the risk of losing basic self-care skills. In terms of future clinical workloads, three clinicians emphasized only positive impacts, seven emphasized both positive and negative impacts, and 17 mentioned only negative impacts. Our most prominent finding, expressed by 24 clinicians, was that closed-loop systems would generate initial challenges due to the need for staff training, user education and support, and new analytical capacities, alongside existing intra-clinic variations in technological experience. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians recognize the value of closed-loop systems in terms of health benefits, but also identify a range of concerns for both users and healthcare staff, which could impact negatively on user access. Future implementation efforts should address these concerns by providing training and support for healthcare teams, taking varied technological expertise into account.


Asunto(s)
Actitud del Personal de Salud , Automonitorización de la Glucosa Sanguínea , Diabetes Mellitus/tratamiento farmacológico , Hipoglucemiantes/administración & dosificación , Bombas de Infusión Implantables , Sistemas de Infusión de Insulina , Insulina/administración & dosificación , Monitoreo Ambulatorio , Algoritmos , Inglaterra , Humanos , Enfermeras y Enfermeros , Nutricionistas , Médicos , Investigación Cualitativa
3.
Br J Anaesth ; 124(3): 261-270, 2020 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31864719

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The Duke Activity Status Index (DASI) questionnaire might help incorporate self-reported functional capacity into preoperative risk assessment. Nonetheless, prognostically important thresholds in DASI scores remain unclear. We conducted a nested cohort analysis of the Measurement of Exercise Tolerance before Surgery (METS) study to characterise the association of preoperative DASI scores with postoperative death or complications. METHODS: The analysis included 1546 participants (≥40 yr of age) at an elevated cardiac risk who had inpatient noncardiac surgery. The primary outcome was 30-day death or myocardial injury. The secondary outcomes were 30-day death or myocardial infarction, in-hospital moderate-to-severe complications, and 1 yr death or new disability. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to characterise the adjusted association of preoperative DASI scores with outcomes. RESULTS: The DASI score had non-linear associations with outcomes. Self-reported functional capacity better than a DASI score of 34 was associated with reduced odds of 30-day death or myocardial injury (odds ratio: 0.97 per 1 point increase above 34; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96-0.99) and 1 yr death or new disability (odds ratio: 0.96 per 1 point increase above 34; 95% CI: 0.92-0.99). Self-reported functional capacity worse than a DASI score of 34 was associated with increased odds of 30-day death or myocardial infarction (odds ratio: 1.05 per 1 point decrease below 34; 95% CI: 1.00-1.09), and moderate-to-severe complications (odds ratio: 1.03 per 1 point decrease below 34; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05). CONCLUSIONS: A DASI score of 34 represents a threshold for identifying patients at risk for myocardial injury, myocardial infarction, moderate-to-severe complications, and new disability.


Asunto(s)
Tolerancia al Ejercicio/fisiología , Indicadores de Salud , Cuidados Preoperatorios/métodos , Adulto , Anciano , Biomarcadores/sangre , Femenino , Estado de Salud , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Infarto del Miocardio/etiología , Infarto del Miocardio/mortalidad , Péptido Natriurético Encefálico/sangre , Fragmentos de Péptidos/sangre , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/mortalidad , Pronóstico , Estudios Prospectivos , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de Riesgo , Autoinforme , Encuestas y Cuestionarios
4.
AJOB Empir Bioeth ; 10(2): 100-112, 2019.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30986113

RESUMEN

Increasing ethical attention and debate is focusing on whether individuals who take part in clinical trials should be given access to post-trial care. However, the main focus of this debate has been upon drug trials undertaken in low-income settings. To broaden this debate, we report findings from interviews with individuals (n = 24) who participated in a clinical trial of a closed-loop system, which is a medical device under development for people with type 1 diabetes that automatically adjusts blood glucose to help keep it within clinically recommended ranges. Individuals were recruited from UK sites and interviewed following trial close-out, at which point the closed-loop had been withdrawn. While individuals were stoical and accepting of the requirement to return the closed-loop, they also conveyed varying degrees of distress. Many described having relaxed diabetes management practices while using the closed-loop and having become deskilled as a consequence, which made reverting back to pre-trial regimens challenging. Participants also described unanticipated consequences arising from using a closed-loop. As well as deskilling, these included experiencing psychological and emotional benefits that could not be sustained after the closed-loop had been withdrawn and participants reevaluating their pre- and post-trial life in light of having used a closed-loop and now perceiving this life much more negatively. Participants also voiced frustrations about experiencing better blood glucose control using a closed-loop and then having to revert to using what they now saw as antiquated and imprecise self-management tools. We use these findings to argue that ethical debates about post-trial provisioning need to be broadened to consider potential psychological and emotional harms, and not just clinical harms, that may result from withdrawal of investigated treatments. We also suggest that individuals may benefit from information about potential nonclinical harms to help make informed decisions about trial participation.


Asunto(s)
Automonitorización de la Glucosa Sanguínea/instrumentación , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/tratamiento farmacológico , Sistemas de Infusión de Insulina , Sujetos de Investigación/psicología , Automanejo/métodos , Privación de Tratamiento , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Ansiedad , Glucemia/metabolismo , Automonitorización de la Glucosa Sanguínea/psicología , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/sangre , Femenino , Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud , Humanos , Sistemas de Infusión de Insulina/psicología , Entrevistas como Asunto , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Motivación , Distrés Psicológico , Investigación Cualitativa , Automanejo/psicología , Adulto Joven
5.
Br J Anaesth ; 122(1): 111-119, 2019 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30579389

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The 6-min walk test (6MWT) is a common means of functional assessment. Its relationship to disability-free survival (DFS) is uncertain. METHODS: This sub-study of the Measurement of Exercise Tolerance for Surgery study had co-primary outcome measures: correlation of the preoperative 6MWT distance with 30 day quality of recovery (15-item quality of recovery) and 12 month WHO Disability Assessment Schedule scores. The prognostic utility of the 6MWT and other risk assessment tools for 12 month DFS was assessed with logistic regression and receiver-operating-characteristic-curve analysis. RESULTS: Of 574 patients recruited, 567 (99%) completed the 6MWT. Twelve months after surgery, 16 (2.9%) patients had died and 444 (77%) had DFS. The 6MWT correlated weakly with 30 day 15-item quality of recovery (ρ=0.14; P=0.001) and 12 month WHO Disability Assessment Schedule (ρ=-0.23; P<0.0005) scores. When the cohort was split into 6MWT distance tertiles, the adjusted odds ratio of low vs high tertiles for DFS was 3.13 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.54-6.35]. The only independent variable predictive of DFS was the Duke Activity Status Index (DASI) score (adjusted odds ratio: 1.06; P<0.0005). The area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve for DFS was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.57-0.70) for the 6MWT, 0.60 (95% CI: 0.53-0.67) for cardiopulmonary-exercise-testing-derived peak oxygen consumption, and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.64-0.76) for the DASI score. CONCLUSIONS: Of the risk assessment tools analysed, the DASI was the most predictive of DFS. The 6MWT was safe and comparable with cardiopulmonary exercise testing for all predictive assessments. Future research should aim to determine the optimal 6MWT distance thresholds for risk prediction.


Asunto(s)
Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Operativos/rehabilitación , Prueba de Paso/métodos , Anciano , Evaluación de la Discapacidad , Tolerancia al Ejercicio/fisiología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Consumo de Oxígeno/fisiología , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Cuidados Preoperatorios/métodos , Pronóstico , Estudios Prospectivos , Curva ROC , Medición de Riesgo/métodos
6.
Biom J ; 60(6): 1110-1120, 2018 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30284323

RESUMEN

The self-controlled case series method assumes that adverse outcomes arise according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process. This implies that it is applicable to independent recurrent outcomes. However, the self-controlled case series method may also be applied to unique, non-recurrent outcomes or first outcomes only, in the limit where these become rare. We investigate this rare outcome assumption when the self-controlled case series method is applied to non-recurrent outcomes. We study this requirement analytically and by simulation, and quantify what is meant by 'rare' in this context. In simulations we also apply the self-controlled risk interval design, a special case of the self-controlled case series design. To illustrate, we extract data on the incidence rate of some recurrent and non-recurrent outcomes within a defined study population to check whether outcomes are sufficiently rare for the rare outcome assumption to hold when applying the self-controlled case series method to first or unique outcomes. The main findings are that the relative bias should be no more than 5% when the cumulative incidence over total time observed is less than 0.1 per individual. Inclusion of age (or calendar time) effects will further reduce bias. Designs that begin observation with exposure maximise bias, whereas little or no bias will be apparent when there is no time trend in the distribution of exposures, or when exposure is central within time observed.


Asunto(s)
Biometría/métodos , Estudios Epidemiológicos , Sesgo , Preescolar , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Distribución de Poisson , Recurrencia , Convulsiones Febriles/epidemiología
7.
Anesth Analg ; 127(5): 1118-1126, 2018 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29533264

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Globally, >300 million patients have surgery annually, and ≤20% experience adverse postoperative events. We studied the impact of both cardiac and noncardiac adverse events on 1-year disability-free survival after noncardiac surgery. METHODS: We used the study cohort from the Evaluation of Nitrous oxide in Gas Mixture of Anesthesia (ENIGMA-II) trial, an international randomized trial of 6992 noncardiac surgical patients. All were ≥45 years of age and had moderate to high cardiac risk. The primary outcome was mortality within 1 postoperative year. We defined 4 separate types of postoperative adverse events. Major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) included myocardial infarction (MI), cardiac arrest, and myocardial revascularization with or without troponin elevation. MI was defined using the third Universal Definition and was blindly adjudicated. A second cohort consisted of patients with isolated troponin increases who did not meet the definition for MI. We also considered a cohort of patients who experienced major adverse postoperative events (MAPEs), including unplanned admission to intensive care, prolonged mechanical ventilation, wound infection, pulmonary embolism, and stroke. From this cohort, we identified a group without troponin elevation and another with troponin elevation that was not judged to be an MI. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models for death at 1 year and assessments of proportionality of hazard functions were performed and expressed as an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: MACEs were observed in 469 patients, and another 754 patients had isolated troponin increases. MAPEs were observed in 631 patients. Compared with control patients, patients with a MACE were at increased risk of mortality (aHR, 3.36 [95% CI, 2.55-4.46]), similar to patients who suffered a MAPE without troponin elevation (n = 501) (aHR, 2.98 [95% CI, 2.26-3.92]). Patients who suffered a MAPE with troponin elevation but without MI had the highest risk of death (n = 116) (aHR, 4.29 [95% CI, 2.89-6.36]). These 4 types of adverse events similarly affected 1-year disability-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: MACEs and MAPEs occur at similar frequencies and affect survival to a similar degree. All 3 types of postoperative troponin elevation in this analysis were associated, to varying degrees, with increased risk of death and disability.


Asunto(s)
Anestésicos por Inhalación/efectos adversos , Cardiopatías/epidemiología , Óxido Nitroso/efectos adversos , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Operativos/efectos adversos , Administración por Inhalación , Anciano , Anestésicos por Inhalación/administración & dosificación , Biomarcadores/sangre , Evaluación de la Discapacidad , Femenino , Estado de Salud , Cardiopatías/diagnóstico , Cardiopatías/mortalidad , Cardiopatías/terapia , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Óxido Nitroso/administración & dosificación , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de Riesgo , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Operativos/mortalidad , Factores de Tiempo , Resultado del Tratamiento , Troponina/sangre , Regulación hacia Arriba
8.
Stat Med ; 37(4): 643-658, 2018 02 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29094391

RESUMEN

We describe some simple techniques for investigating 2 key assumptions of the self-controlled case series (SCCS) method, namely, that events do not influence subsequent exposures and that events do not influence the length of observation periods. For each assumption, we propose some simple tests based on the standard SCCS model, along with associated graphical displays. The methods also enable the user to investigate the robustness of the results obtained using the standard SCCS model to failure of assumptions. The proposed methods are investigated by simulations and applied to data on measles, mumps and rubella vaccine, and antipsychotics.


Asunto(s)
Modelos Estadísticos , Antipsicóticos/efectos adversos , Bioestadística , Estudios de Cohortes , Simulación por Computador , Demencia/complicaciones , Humanos , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Vacuna contra el Sarampión-Parotiditis-Rubéola/efectos adversos , Púrpura Trombocitopénica Idiopática/etiología , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Factores de Riesgo , Accidente Cerebrovascular/etiología , Factores de Tiempo
9.
Diabet Med ; 35(4): 436-449, 2018 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29247547

RESUMEN

There is a pressing need for new treatment regimens that enable improved glycaemic control and reduced diabetes self-management burdens. Closed-loop, or artificial pancreas, systems represent one of the most promising avenues in this regard. Closed-loop systems connect wearable continuous glucose monitor (CGM) sensors to smartphone- or tablet-mounted algorithms that process and model CGM data to deliver precise and frequently updated doses of fast-acting insulin (and glucagon in dual-hormone systems) to users via wearable pumps. Recent studies have demonstrated that closed-loop systems offer significant benefit in terms of improved glycaemic control. However, less attention has been paid to the psychosocial impact on users of closed-loop systems. This article reviews recent research on psychosocial aspects of closed-loop usage in light of preceding research on user experience of currently available technologies such as insulin pumps and CGM sensors. The small, but growing body of research in this field reports generally positive user experience and a number of experienced benefits including: reassurance and reduced anxiety, improved sleep and confidence, and 'time off' from diabetes demands. However, these benefits are counterbalanced by important challenges, ranging from variable levels of trust to concerns about physical bulk, technical glitches and difficulties incorporating closed-loop systems into everyday life. Future research should explore psychosocial aspects of closed-loop usage in more diverse groups and with regard to clinicians, as well as users, to ensure that the clinical benefits of closed-loop systems are realized at scale in routine medical care.


Asunto(s)
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/psicología , Páncreas Artificial/psicología , Adolescente , Adulto , Automonitorización de la Glucosa Sanguínea/instrumentación , Automonitorización de la Glucosa Sanguínea/métodos , Automonitorización de la Glucosa Sanguínea/psicología , Niño , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/sangre , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/prevención & control , Femenino , Humanos , Hipoglucemiantes/administración & dosificación , Insulina/administración & dosificación , Sistemas de Infusión de Insulina/psicología , Aceptación de la Atención de Salud/psicología , Satisfacción del Paciente , Embarazo , Embarazo en Diabéticas , Mujeres Embarazadas/psicología , Calidad de Vida , Automanejo/métodos , Automanejo/psicología
10.
Diabet Med ; 34(10): 1461-1469, 2017 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28631849

RESUMEN

AIMS: To explore the experiences of pregnant women with Type 1 diabetes, and the relationships between perceptions of glucose control, attitudes to technology and glycaemic responses with regard to closed-loop insulin delivery. METHODS: We recruited 16 pregnant women with Type 1 diabetes [mean ± sd age 34.1 ± 4.6 years, duration of diabetes 23.6 ± 7.2 years, baseline HbA1c 51±5 mmol/mol (6.8 ± 0.6%)] to a randomized crossover trial of sensor-augmented pump therapy vs automated closed-loop therapy. Questionnaires (Diabetes Technology Questionnaire, Hypoglycaemia Fear Survey) were completed before and after each intervention, with qualitative interviews at baseline and follow-up. RESULTS: Women described the benefits and burdens of closed-loop systems during pregnancy. Feelings of improved glucose control, excitement and empowerment were counterbalanced by concerns about device visibility, obsessive data checking and diminished attentiveness to hyper- and hypoglycaemia symptoms. Responding to questionnaires, eight participants felt less worry about overnight hypoglycaemia and that diabetes 'did not run their lives'; however, five reported that closed-loop increased time thinking about diabetes, and three felt it made sleep and preventing hyperglycaemia more problematic. Women slightly overestimated their glycaemic response to closed-loop therapy. Most became more positive in their technology attitudes throughout pregnancy. Women with more positive technology attitudes had higher degrees of overestimation, and poorer levels of glycaemic control. CONCLUSIONS: Women displayed complex psychosocial responses to closed-loop therapy in pregnancy. Perceptions of glycaemic response may diverge from biomedical data.


Asunto(s)
Glucemia/análisis , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/sangre , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/tratamiento farmacológico , Sistemas de Infusión de Insulina , Insulina/administración & dosificación , Embarazo en Diabéticas/sangre , Embarazo en Diabéticas/tratamiento farmacológico , Adolescente , Adulto , Técnicas Biosensibles/instrumentación , Técnicas Biosensibles/métodos , Glucemia/efectos de los fármacos , Automonitorización de la Glucosa Sanguínea/instrumentación , Automonitorización de la Glucosa Sanguínea/métodos , Estudios Cruzados , Femenino , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Satisfacción del Paciente , Embarazo , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Adulto Joven
11.
Stat Med ; 36(19): 3022-3038, 2017 Aug 30.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28470682

RESUMEN

The self-controlled case series (SCCS) method is an alternative to study designs such as cohort and case control methods and is used to investigate potential associations between the timing of vaccine or other drug exposures and adverse events. It requires information only on cases, individuals who have experienced the adverse event at least once, and automatically controls all fixed confounding variables that could modify the true association between exposure and adverse event. Time-varying confounders such as age, on the other hand, are not automatically controlled and must be allowed for explicitly. The original SCCS method used step functions to represent risk periods (windows of exposed time) and age effects. Hence, exposure risk periods and/or age groups have to be prespecified a priori, but a poor choice of group boundaries may lead to biased estimates. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric SCCS method in which both age and exposure effects are represented by spline functions at the same time. To avoid a numerical integration of the product of these two spline functions in the likelihood function of the SCCS method, we defined the first, second, and third integrals of I-splines based on the definition of integrals of M-splines. Simulation studies showed that the new method performs well. This new method is applied to data on pediatric vaccines. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.


Asunto(s)
Biometría/métodos , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Factores de Edad , Teorema de Bayes , Simulación por Computador , Factores de Confusión Epidemiológicos , Humanos , Análisis de Regresión , Vacunas
12.
J Intellect Disabil Res ; 61(3): 197-209, 2017 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27582257

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: In the UK, the closure of 'long-stay' hospitals was accompanied by the development of community teams (CTs) to support people with intellectual disabilities (IDs) to live in community settings. The self-reported experiences of staff working in such teams have been neglected. METHODS: Focusing on a single county-wide service, comprising five multi-disciplinary and inter-agency CTs, we measured perceptions among the health care and care management Team members of (1) their personal well-being; (2) the functioning of their team; and (3) the organisation's commitment to quality, and culture. RESULTS: Almost three-quarters of the questionnaires were returned (73/101; 72%). The scores of health care practitioners and care managers were very similar: (1) the MBI scores of more than half the respondents were 'of concern'; (2) similarly, almost four in ten respondents' scores on the Vision scale of the TCI were 'of concern'; (3) the perceived commitment to quality (QIIS-II Part 2) was uncertain; and (4) the organisational culture (QIIS-II, Part 1) was viewed as primarily hierarchical. DISCUSSION: The perceived absence of a vision for the service, combined with a dominant culture viewed by its members as strongly focussed on bureaucracy and process, potentially compromises the ability of these CTs to respond proactively to the needs of people with IDs. Given the changes in legislation, policy and practice that have taken place since CTs were established, it would be timely to revisit their role and purpose.


Asunto(s)
Actitud del Personal de Salud , Servicios de Salud Comunitaria/normas , Personal de Salud/psicología , Discapacidad Intelectual/terapia , Cultura Organizacional , Grupo de Atención al Paciente/normas , Satisfacción Personal , Adulto , Inglaterra , Humanos
13.
Phys Rev Lett ; 117(23): 233902, 2016 Dec 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27982619

RESUMEN

The Astronomical Light Optical Hybrid Analysis project investigates the combined use of a telescope array interferometer and nonlinear optics to propose a new generation of instruments dedicated to high-resolution imaging for infrared astronomy. The nonlinear process of optical frequency conversion transfers the astronomical light to a shorter wavelength domain. Here, we report on the first fringes obtained on the sky with the prototype operated at 1.55 µm in the astronomical H band and implemented on the Center for High Angular Resolution Astronomy telescope array. This seminal result allows us to foresee a future extension to the challenging midinfrared spectral domain.

14.
PLoS One ; 11(8): e0160759, 2016.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27513749

RESUMEN

A large-scale multiple surveillance system for infectious disease outbreaks has been in operation in England and Wales since the early 1990s. Changes to the statistical algorithm at the heart of the system were proposed and the purpose of this paper is to compare two new algorithms with the original algorithm. Test data to evaluate performance are created from weekly counts of the number of cases of each of more than 2000 diseases over a twenty-year period. The time series of each disease is separated into one series giving the baseline (background) disease incidence and a second series giving disease outbreaks. One series is shifted forward by twelve months and the two are then recombined, giving a realistic series in which it is known where outbreaks have been added. The metrics used to evaluate performance include a scoring rule that appropriately balances sensitivity against specificity and is sensitive to variation in probabilities near 1. In the context of disease surveillance, a scoring rule can be adapted to reflect the size of outbreaks and this was done. Results indicate that the two new algorithms are comparable to each other and better than the algorithm they were designed to replace.


Asunto(s)
Algoritmos , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Modelos Estadísticos , Vigilancia en Salud Pública/métodos , Inglaterra , Reacciones Falso Positivas , Humanos
15.
Biom J ; 58(3): 607-22, 2016 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26494534

RESUMEN

The self-controlled case series (SCCS) method, commonly used to investigate the safety of vaccines, requires information on cases only and automatically controls all age-independent multiplicative confounders, while allowing for an age-dependent baseline incidence. Currently, the SCCS method represents the time-varying exposures using step functions with pre-determined cut points. A less prescriptive approach may be beneficial when the shape of the relative risk function associated with exposure is not known a priori, especially when exposure effects can be long-lasting. We therefore propose to model exposure effects using flexible smooth functions. Specifically, we used a linear combination of cubic M-splines which, in addition to giving plausible shapes, avoids the integral in the log-likelihood function of the SCCS model. The methods, though developed specifically for vaccines, are applicable more widely. Simulations showed that the new approach generally performs better than the step function method. We applied the new method to two data sets, on febrile convulsion and exposure to MMR vaccine, and on fractures and thiazolidinedione use.


Asunto(s)
Biometría/métodos , Modelos Estadísticos , Vacunas/normas , Humanos , Incidencia , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Proyectos de Investigación , Riesgo
16.
Epidemiol Infect ; 144(4): 887-95, 2016 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26311119

RESUMEN

Population seroprevalence can be estimated from serosurveys by classifying quantitative measurements into positives (past infection/vaccinated) or negatives (susceptible) according to a fixed assay cut-off. The choice of assay cut-offs has a direct impact on seroprevalence estimates. A time-resolved fluorescence immunoassay (TRFIA) was used to test exposure to human parvovirus 4 (HP4). Seroprevalence estimates were obtained after applying the diagnostic assay cut-off under different scenarios using simulations. Alternative methods for estimating assay cut-offs were proposed based on mixture modelling with component distributions for the past infection/vaccinated and susceptible populations. Seroprevalence estimates were compared to those obtained directly from the data using mixture models. Simulation results showed that when there was good distinction between the underlying populations all methods gave seroprevalence estimates close to the true one. For high overlap between the underlying components, the diagnostic assay cut-off generally gave the most biased estimates. However, the mixture model methods also gave biased estimates which were a result of poor model fit. In conclusion, fixed cut-offs often produce biased estimates but they also have advantages compared to other methods such as mixture models. The bias can be reduced by using assay cut-offs estimated specifically for seroprevalence studies.


Asunto(s)
Técnicas de Laboratorio Clínico/normas , Infecciones por Parvoviridae/epidemiología , Parvovirinae/aislamiento & purificación , Fluoroinmunoensayo , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Infecciones por Parvoviridae/virología , Prevalencia , Sensibilidad y Especificidad , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos
17.
J Intellect Disabil Res ; 59(3): 238-47, 2015 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24762266

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: This paper examines knowledge exchange dynamics in a specialist integrated intellectual (learning) disability service, comprising specialist healthcare provision with social care commissioning and management, and considers their significance in terms of integrated service delivery. METHODS: A qualitative study focusing on knowledge exchange and integrated services. Semi-structured interviews (n = 25) were conducted with members of an integrated intellectual disability service in England regarding their perceptions of knowledge exchange within the service and the way in which knowledge exchange impinges on the operation of the integrated service. RESULTS: Exchange of 'explicit' (codifiable) knowledge between health and care management components of the service is problematic because of a lack of integrated clinical governance and related factors such as IT and care record systems and office arrangements. Team meetings and workplace interactions allowed for informal exchange of explicit and 'tacit' (non-codifiable) knowledge, but presented challenges in terms of knowledge exchange completeness and sustainability. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge exchange processes play an important role in the functioning of integrated services incorporating health and care management components. Managers need to ensure that knowledge exchange processes facilitate both explicit and tacit knowledge exchange and do not rely excessively on informal, 'ad hoc' interactions. Research on integrated services should take account of micro-scale knowledge exchange dynamics and relationships between social dynamics and physical factors.


Asunto(s)
Servicios Comunitarios de Salud Mental/organización & administración , Prestación Integrada de Atención de Salud/organización & administración , Conocimientos, Actitudes y Práctica en Salud , Discapacidad Intelectual/terapia , Discapacidades para el Aprendizaje/terapia , Adulto , Servicios Comunitarios de Salud Mental/normas , Prestación Integrada de Atención de Salud/normas , Inglaterra , Humanos
18.
Eur Heart J ; 36(16): 984-92, 2015 Apr 21.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25005706

RESUMEN

AIM: Antipsychotics increase the risk of stroke. Their effect on myocardial infarction remains uncertain because people prescribed and not prescribed antipsychotic drugs differ in their underlying vascular risk making between-person comparisons difficult to interpret. The aim of our study was to investigate this association using the self-controlled case series design that eliminates between-person confounding effects. METHODS AND RESULTS: All the patients with a first recorded myocardial infarction and prescription for an antipsychotic identified in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project were selected for the self-controlled case series. The incidence ratio of myocardial infarction during risk periods following the initiation of antipsychotic use relative to unexposed periods was estimated within individuals. A classical case-control study was undertaken for comparative purposes comparing antipsychotic exposure among cases and matched controls. We identified 1546 exposed cases for the self-controlled case series and found evidence of an association during the first 30 days after the first prescription of an antipsychotic, for first-generation agents [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-3.99] and second-generation agents (IRR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.18-5.32). Similar results were found for the case-control study for new users of first- (OR: 3.19, 95% CI: 1.9-5.37) and second-generation agents (OR: 2.55, 95% CI: 0.93-7.01) within 30 days of their myocardial infarction. CONCLUSION: We found an increased risk of myocardial infarction in the period following the initiation of antipsychotics that was not attributable to differences between people prescribed and not prescribed antipsychotics.


Asunto(s)
Antipsicóticos/administración & dosificación , Infarto del Miocardio/inducido químicamente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Trastornos Mentales/tratamiento farmacológico , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores de Riesgo
19.
Nature ; 515(7526): 234-6, 2014 Nov 13.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25363778

RESUMEN

A classical nova occurs when material accreting onto the surface of a white dwarf in a close binary system ignites in a thermonuclear runaway. Complex structures observed in the ejecta at late stages could result from interactions with the companion during the common-envelope phase. Alternatively, the explosion could be intrinsically bipolar, resulting from a localized ignition on the surface of the white dwarf or as a consequence of rotational distortion. Studying the structure of novae during the earliest phases is challenging because of the high spatial resolution needed to measure their small sizes. Here we report near-infrared interferometric measurements of the angular size of Nova Delphini 2013, starting one day after the explosion and continuing with extensive time coverage during the first 43 days. Changes in the apparent expansion rate can be explained by an explosion model consisting of an optically thick core surrounded by a diffuse envelope. The optical depth of the ejected material changes as it expands. We detect an ellipticity in the light distribution, suggesting a prolate or bipolar structure that develops as early as the second day. Combining the angular expansion rate with radial velocity measurements, we derive a geometric distance to the nova of 4.54 ± 0.59 kiloparsecs from the Sun.

20.
Anaesth Intensive Care ; 42(5): 592-8, 2014 Sep.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25233172

RESUMEN

It is unclear whether physicians and patients have similar concerns and preferences when considering benefit and risks of aspirin and antifibrinolytic therapy for cardiac surgery. We surveyed both groups to ascertain their perceptions and preferences for treatment in this setting. Both preoperative and postoperative cardiac surgical patients and the physician craft groups caring for them (cardiology, surgery, anaesthesia/critical care), were provided with estimates of benefits and risks of aspirin and antifibrinolytic therapy. All study participants were asked to stipulate the minimal absolute risk reduction required for them to agree to such therapy. When compared with the cardiac surgical patients they treat, physicians required a smaller thrombotic risk reduction with aspirin whilst accepting its known increased risk of bleeding. This was significantly different in a high-risk stroke setting (incidence 5%) where the required relative risk reduction with aspirin use for physicians was 20% versus patients 40% (P <0.001); and for myocardial infarction, physicians 20% versus patients 36% (P=0.051). For antifibrinolytic therapy, the tolerated increased relative risk of stroke for physicians was 20% versus patients 10% (P=0.004), and for myocardial infarction, physicians 16.7% versus patients 4.2% (P <0.001). The three physician craft groups had comparable tolerances of thrombotic risk. Patient and physician preferences for perioperative aspirin and antifibrinolytic therapy sometimes differ based on risk benefit analysis.


Asunto(s)
Anticoagulantes/efectos adversos , Antifibrinolíticos/efectos adversos , Aspirina/efectos adversos , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Percepción , Médicos , Estudios Prospectivos , Medición de Riesgo
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