Assessing the impact of trade policy uncertainty on pollution emissions: an analysis of Chinese firms' green transformation.

Oscillations in the global trade milieu have exacerbated the ambiguity experienced by Chinese enterprises, thereby influencing their ecological transition. The ongoing debate over whether trade uncertainty augments corporate emissions, exacerbating pollution, or attenuates emissions, encouraging sustainable production, has yet to reach a consensus. The current investigation employs a textual analysis methodology to explore the influence of trade policy uncertainty on pollution emissions, by sourcing indicators of trade policy uncertainty that echo firm-level uncertainty within the period 2008 to 2021. Utilizing the fixed effects model for our analysis, the findings substantiate that escalated uncertainty at the micro-level catalyzes an increase in pollution emissions originating from firms. Crucially, we find that risk diversification and innovation bolster firms' capacities to manage pollution under escalating uncertainty. Furthermore, our estimation reveals that enterprises with low market competitiveness, high financial constraints, and moderate overseas market share are most significantly impacted, whereas those with robust patent portfolios remain largely unaffected. This study carries considerable implications for firms striving to achieve an ecological transition and offers insights for fostering sustainable and high-quality global economic development.

How does environmental regulation affect carbon productivity? The role of green technology progress and pollution transfer.

This empirical study examines the impact of environmental regulations on carbon productivity under varying conditions using panel data from Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2019. Prior research has reported inconsistent results regarding the relationships between these variables. We developed a spatial Durbin model (SDM) and tested the non-linear effects of environmental regulation on carbon productivity from a spatial linkage perspective. The results demonstrate a U-shaped curve representing the local-neighborhood effect of environmental regulations on carbon productivity. This curve is further dissected into two components: the average direct effect (ADE) and the average indirect effect (AIE). Furthermore, the findings indicate that green technology progress and pollution transfer act as moderating factors in shaping the U-shaped curve. Green technological progress has steepened the U-shape curve, whereas pollution transfer has flattened it. Based on these findings, we propose three recommendations for the formulation of environmental regulation policies.

The impact of manufacturing servitization on consumption-based carbon rebound effect: A global value chain research perspective.

This study investigates the causal effect of manufacturing servitization on the consumption-based carbon rebound effect, employing the empirical approach based on the value-added trade and SBM-DEA model. The results show that improving the servitization level will lead to a significant decrease in the consumption-based carbon rebound effect of the global manufacturing industry. Moreover, the main paths through which the manufacturing servitization inhibits the consumption-based carbon rebound effect are the human capital and government management. We also find that the impact of manufacturing servitization is more substantial in advanced manufacturing and developed economies, which is smaller in manufacturing sectors with higher global value chain positions and lower export penetration levels. These findings suggest that improving the level of manufacturing servitization helps alleviate the consumption-based carbon rebound effect and is conducive to achieving the target of global carbon emission reduction.

Characters, comparisons and explications of China's domestic environmental cost of agricultural exports from the perspective of global value chain.

In the context of global value chain, this paper uses world input-output table (2016) and CO2 emission data to analyze domestic environmental cost of agricultural exports based on backward linkage MRIO model. The results show that average domestic value-added and domestic embodied emissions of China's agricultural export are respectively ranked 7th and 4th in the world during the sample period, which indicates that China's agriculture does not perform well in environmental cost; On the bright side, China's domestic environmental cost displays a downward trend over time. In terms of contributing factors, CO2 emission coefficient is conducive to the reduction of domestic environmental cost, meanwhile the value-added coefficient, intermediate input structure, and agricultural export structure promote the increase of domestic environmental cost. Further, the cross-country decomposition results found that the emission coefficient and the intermediate input structure are the main reasons that lead China's domestic environmental cost to be higher than those of the main agricultural export countries. The value-added factor and the export structure have narrowed the gap of domestic environmental cost between China and other major agricultural economies. The research findings are still robust when scenario analysis is introduced. This study suggests that optimizing the structure of energy consumption and promoting cleaner production are most important ways to promote the sustainable development of China's agricultural exports.

How can China achieve its goal of peaking carbon emissions at minimal cost? A research perspective from shadow price and optimal allocation of carbon emissions.

The Chinese government has declared a determination at the 75th United Nations General Assembly that China will improve its independent contribution and adopt more powerful measures to peak the carbon emissions before 2030. However, such strict implementation of carbon reduction policies is bound to bring the cost of sacrificing economic development. In such a context, this paper tries to use shadow price to measure the average social cost of emission reduction, marginal abatement cost to depict the pressure to reduce carbon emissions based on non-radial distance function, and provides an optimal scheme for provincial emission reduction to minimize the national cost of emission reduction based on variable-coefficient model. Results show that: First, the average value of shadow price is 15.91 and varies widely among regions, which means on average reducing one unit of carbon emissions will sacrifice 15.914 yuan RMB of economic output, and there exists possibility of carbon transactions across regions; Second, on the one hand, marginal abatement cost of carbon emission for most regions presents an upward tendency over time, which means greater economic costs have to be sacrificed with economic development in the future; On the other hand, marginal abatement cost is much higher in regions with high economic level than that in the economically undeveloped areas, which indicates reducing carbon emissions is becoming increasingly difficult and would pay more economical cost in economically developed regions; Third, the optional allocation scheme of CO2 reduction derived from this research is better than administrative ways of Grandfathering and Benchmarking in terms of minimizing emission reduction cost. Results of this paper indicate that larger carbon trading market can be implemented in China to economically fulfill the commitment of peaking carbon emissions.

Three-dimensional heterogeneity analysis of climate aid's carbon reduction effect.

Exploring the effectiveness of climate aid is crucial to distribute funds scientifically and maximize its impact. A body of related literature has estimated the impact of international climate aid on carbon emissions. However, these studies did not adequately consider the multi-dimensional heterogeneity of climate aid's carbon reduction effect. Based on national panel data of 77 recipients from 1980 to 2016, this study is the first to analyze the heterogeneous characteristics of climate aid's carbon reduction effect from three dimensions of emission level, aid level, and income level. Results show that, totally speaking, climate aid has a significant negative effect on carbon emissions in recipient countries. From the perspective of heterogeneity, climate aid has significant reduction effects for the recipient countries with middle-emission level. Meanwhile, climate aid also has significant negative effects on carbon emissions in recipient countries with high-aid level, i.e., only when the amount of aid reaches relatively high levels can climate aid play its role in reducing emissions. Furthermore, climate aid only conducts a significant reduction effect for middle-income recipients. This study recommends proposing a new collective quantified financial target, pursuing low-carbon economic development, optimizing the aid distribution, and enhancing capacity building to maximize the effectiveness of climate aid.

Illuminating the efficiency of CO2 emissions in China's mining sector: evidence from meta-frontier Malmquist index models.

CO2 emission reduction has become a binding target in China's economic and social development. The mining industry is China's primary energy consumer and therefore has an important influence on China's CO2 emissions. Herein, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of data from the Chinese mining industry between 2004 and 2015. And we employ meta-frontier data envelopment analysis to analyse the CO2 emission efficiency of the Chinese mining industry and identify the driving factors that influence the observed dynamic changes in CO2 emission efficiency. The main practical conclusions of our research are as follows: (1) the CO2 emission efficiency of China's mining industry had grown continuously during the study period; (2) during the study period, the CO2 emission efficiency of China's mining industry did not change consistently with changes in different geographical regions; (3) the overall efficiency of management in China's mining sector was low; (4) the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in China's mining sector played a significant role in the improvement of the CO2 emission efficiency. The empirical results provide constructive policy implications that should be considered by the policy makers for the more sustainable development of China's mining sector.

How GVC division affects embodied carbon emissions in China's exports?

With the rapid growth of China's foreign trade scale, the embodied carbon emissions in China's exports show a significant upward trend, which has been experiencing a considerable increase of researchers' attention. This study attempts to measure the embodied carbon emissions in China's exports from 1995 to 2011 based on the MRIO model and WIOD data. Compared with previous studies, this paper introduces the gross trade accounting method and constructs the GVC impact index and EC position index to comprehensively explore the impact of the GVC division on embodied carbon emissions in China's export trade. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The fast-growing embodied carbon emissions in China's export trade were mainly caused by intermediate products trade. And the impact of the GVC division on embodied carbon emissions increased with the deepening of the participation in GVC division. (2) Although China played a role of the "pollution haven" in GVCs, China's EC position index ascended with the deepening of the participation in GVCs. (3) In the context of GVCs, consumer responsibility principle is more equitable and rational, which be widely suggested in the calculation of national carbon emissions responsibility.

Can technology R&D continuously improve green development level in the open economy? Empirical evidence from China's industrial sector.

Applying a global DEA model based on non-radial directional distance function, this paper constructs a comprehensive efficiency index to estimate green development level and further identifies the influencing mechanism of technology R&D on green development in China's industrial sector. The results demonstrate that the level of green development in China's industrial sector declined year by year and the average was 0.27, and it also shows significant regional characteristics within the sample period. Besides, the environment pollution transferred from the east to the central and the west. In addition, the results also indicate that there is a threshold effect for the impact of technology R&D on China's industrial green development. Based on the volume of the trade openness, this effect presents a "N"-type characteristic that tilts to the right. According to the research results, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward, which may be of great importance to improve the green development level in China's industrial sector.