Drivers of epidemic dynamics in real time from daily digital COVID-19 measurements.

Understanding the drivers of respiratory pathogen spread is challenging, particularly in a timely manner during an ongoing epidemic. Here we present insights obtained using daily data from the NHS COVID-19 app for England and Wales and shared with health authorities in almost real time. Our indicator of the reproduction number R(t) was available days earlier than other estimates, with a novel capability to decompose R(t) into contact rates and probabilities of infection. When Omicron arrived, the main epidemic driver switched from contacts to transmissibility. We separate contacts and transmissions by day of exposure and setting, finding pronounced variability over days of the week and during Christmas holidays and events. As an example, during the Euro football tournament in 2021, days with England matches showed sharp spikes in exposures and transmissibility. Digital contact tracing technologies can help control epidemics not only by directly preventing transmissions but also by enabling rapid analysis at scale and with unprecedented resolution.

First Molecular Characterisation of Porcine Parvovirus 7 (PPV7) in Italy.

Porcine parvoviruses (PPVs) are among the most important agents of reproductive failure in swine worldwide. PPVs comprise eight genetically different species ascribed to four genera: Protoparvovirus (PPV1, PPV8), Tetraparvovirus (PPV2-3), Copiparvovirus (PPV4-6), and Chaphamaparvovirus (PPV7). In 2016, PPV7 was firstly detected in the USA and afterwards in Europe, Asia, and South America. Recently, it was also identified in Italy in pig farms with reproductive failure. This study aimed to evaluate the circulation of PPV7 in domestic and wild pigs in Sardinia, Italy. In addition, its coinfection with Porcine Circovirus 2 (PCV2) and 3 (PCV3) was analysed, and PPV7 Italian strains were molecularly characterised. PPV7 was detected in domestic pigs and, for the first time, wild pigs in Italy. The PPV7 viral genome was detected in 20.59% of domestic and wild pig samples. PPV7 detection was significantly lower in domestic pigs, with higher PCV2/PCV3 co-infection rates observed in PPV7-positive than in PPV7-negative domestic pigs. Molecular characterisation of the NS1 gene showed a very high frequency of recombination that could presumably promote virus spreading.

Comparing Phylogeographies to Reveal Incompatible Geographical Histories within Genomes.

Modern phylogeography aims at reconstructing the geographic movement of organisms based on their genomic sequences and spatial information. Phylogeographic approaches are often applied to pathogen sequences and therefore tend to neglect the possibility of recombination, which decouples the evolutionary and geographic histories of different parts of the genome. Genomic regions of recombining or reassorting pathogens often originate and evolve at different times and locations, which characterize their unique spatial histories. Measuring the extent of these differences requires new methods to compare geographic information on phylogenetic trees reconstructed from different parts of the genome. Here we develop for the first time a set of measures of phylogeographic incompatibility, aimed at detecting differences between geographical histories in terms of distances between phylogeographies. We study the effect of varying demography and recombination on phylogeographic incompatibilities using coalescent simulations. We further apply these measures to the evolutionary history of human and livestock pathogens, either reassorting or recombining, such as the Victoria and Yamagata lineages of influenza B and the O/Ind-2001 foot-and-mouth disease virus strain. Our results reveal diverse geographical paths of migration that characterize the origins and evolutionary histories of different viral genes and genomic segments. These incompatibility measures can be applied to any phylogeography, and more generally to any phylogeny where each tip has been assigned either a continuous or discrete "trait" independent of the sequence. We illustrate this flexibility with an analysis of the interplay between the phylogeography and phylolinguistics of Uralic-speaking human populations, hinting at patrilinear language transmission.

In vitro phenotypic characterisation of two genotype I African swine fever viruses with genomic deletion isolated from Sardinian wild boars.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) causes a devastating disease affecting domestic and wild pigs. ASF was first introduced in Sardinia in 1978 and until 2019 only genotype I isolates were identified. A remarkable genetic stability of Sardinian ASFV isolates was described, nevertheless in 2019 two wild boar isolates with a sustained genomic deletion (4342 base pairs) were identified (7303WB/19, 7212WB/19). In this study, we therefore performed in vitro experiments with monocyte-derived macrophages (moMФ) to unravel the phenotypic characteristics of these deleted viruses. Both 7303WB/19 and 7212WB/19 presented a lower growth kinetic in moMФ compared to virulent Sardinian 26544/OG10, using either a high (1) or a low (0.01) multiplicity of infection (MOI). In addition, flow cytometric analysis showed that both 7303WB/19 and 7212WB/19 presented lower intracellular levels of both early and late ASFV proteins. We subsequently investigated whether deleted virus variants were previously circulating in wild boars in Sardinia. In the four years preceding the last genotype I isolation (February 2015-January 2019), other eight wild boar isolates were collected, all belonging to p72 genotype I, B602L subgroup X, but none of them presented a sustained genomic deletion. Overall, we observed the deleted virus isolates in Sardinia only in 2019, at the end of a strong eradication campaign, and our data suggest that it might possess an attenuated phenotype in vivo. A better understanding of ASFV evolution in endemic territories might contribute to development of effective control measures against ASF.

Prevalence of persistent SARS-CoV-2 in a large community surveillance study.

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infections may act as viral reservoirs that could seed future outbreaks1-5, give rise to highly divergent lineages6-8 and contribute to cases with post-acute COVID-19 sequelae (long COVID)9,10. However, the population prevalence of persistent infections, their viral load kinetics and evolutionary dynamics over the course of infections remain largely unknown. Here, using viral sequence data collected as part of a national infection survey, we identified 381 individuals with SARS-CoV-2 RNA at high titre persisting for at least 30 days, of which 54 had viral RNA persisting at least 60 days. We refer to these as 'persistent infections' as available evidence suggests that they represent ongoing viral replication, although the persistence of non-replicating RNA cannot be ruled out in all. Individuals with persistent infection had more than 50% higher odds of self-reporting long COVID than individuals with non-persistent infection. We estimate that 0.1-0.5% of infections may become persistent with typically rebounding high viral loads and last for at least 60 days. In some individuals, we identified many viral amino acid substitutions, indicating periods of strong positive selection, whereas others had no consensus change in the sequences for prolonged periods, consistent with weak selection. Substitutions included mutations that are lineage defining for SARS-CoV-2 variants, at target sites for monoclonal antibodies and/or are commonly found in immunocompromised people11-14. This work has profound implications for understanding and characterizing SARS-CoV-2 infection, epidemiology and evolution.

Parthenogenomics: Insights on mutation rates and nucleotide diversity in parthenogenetic Panagrolaimus nematodes.

Asexual reproduction is assumed to lead to the accumulation of deleterious mutations, and reduced heterozygosity due to the absence of recombination. Panagrolaimid nematode species display different modes of reproduction. Sexual reproduction with distinct males and females, asexual reproduction through parthenogenesis in the genus Panagrolaimus, and hermaphroditism in Propanagrolaimus. Here, we compared genomic features of free-living nematodes in populations and species isolated from geographically distant regions to study diversity, and genome-wide differentiation under different modes of reproduction. We firstly estimated genome-wide spontaneous mutation rates in a triploid parthenogenetic Panagrolaimus, and a diploid hermaphroditic Propanagrolaimus via long-term mutation accumulation lines. Secondly, we calculated population genetic parameters including nucleotide diversity, and fixation index (F ST) between populations of asexually and sexually reproducing nematodes. Thirdly, we used phylogenetic network methods on sexually and asexually reproducing Panagrolaimus populations to understand evolutionary relationships between them. The estimated mutation rate was slightly lower for the asexual population, as expected for taxa with this reproductive mode. Natural polyploid asexual populations revealed higher nucleotide diversity. Despite their common ancestor, a gene network revealed a high level of genetic differentiation among asexual populations. The elevated heterozygosity found in the triploid parthenogens could be explained by the third genome copy. Given their tendentially lower mutation rates it can be hypothesized that this is part of the mechanism to evade Muller's ratchet. Our findings in parthenogenetic triploid nematode populations seem to challenge common expectations of evolution under asexuality.

Digital measurement of SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk from 7 million contacts.

How likely is it to become infected by SARS-CoV-2 after being exposed? Almost everyone wondered about this question during the COVID-19 pandemic. Contact-tracing apps1,2 recorded measurements of proximity3 and duration between nearby smartphones. Contacts-individuals exposed to confirmed cases-were notified according to public health policies such as the 2 m, 15 min guideline4,5, despite limited evidence supporting this threshold. Here we analysed 7 million contacts notified by the National Health Service COVID-19 app6,7 in England and Wales to infer how app measurements translated to actual transmissions. Empirical metrics and statistical modelling showed a strong relation between app-computed risk scores and actual transmission probability. Longer exposures at greater distances had risk similar to that of shorter exposures at closer distances. The probability of transmission confirmed by a reported positive test increased initially linearly with duration of exposure (1.1% per hour) and continued increasing over several days. Whereas most exposures were short (median 0.7 h, interquartile range 0.4-1.6), transmissions typically resulted from exposures lasting between 1 h and several days (median 6 h, interquartile range 1.4-28). Households accounted for about 6% of contacts but 40% of transmissions. With sufficient preparation, privacy-preserving yet precise analyses of risk that would inform public health measures, based on digital contact tracing, could be performed within weeks of the emergence of a new pathogen.

Correction: Viral burden is associated with age, vaccination, and viral variant in a population-representative study of SARS-CoV-2 that accounts for time-since-infection-related sampling bias.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1011461.].

Carlavirus Species Infecting Hop Plants in Italy: Molecular Identification and Phylogenetic Analyses of the Detected Isolates.

Hop (Humulus lupulus L.) is a minor ingredient in the beer production but has a strong influence on the beer quality due to the high chemical complexity of the cones used in brewing. One of the major factors that can severely affect the chemical composition of the hop cones and their marketability is the presence of viral infections in the plant. Amongst the five major hop viruses, three belong to the Carlavirus genus: hop mosaic virus (HpMV), hop latent virus (HpLV), and American hop latent virus (AHLV). The occurrence of carlaviruses on hop germplasm in Italy was firstly recorded in 2017 but, in that context, a generic detection was only performed and no information on the infecting Carlavirus species was provided. To fill this gap, 51 hop samples previously found infected by carlaviruses were analysed by RT-PCR employing primer pairs specific for the coat protein (CP) of HpMV, HpLV and AHLV, respectively. HpLV resulted largely prevalent as it was detected in 96.1% of tested samples whereas for HpMV and AHLV an infection rate of 5.9% and 3.9% was recorded, respectively. CP nucleotide sequences from 13 selected virus isolates were obtained and analysed; moreover, the complete genome sequence of 7 isolates was obtained by using high throughput sequencing (HTS). Phylogenetic analysis showed close relationships among isolates from different geographical origin, including European and non-European countries, according to the worldwide movement of hop germplasm due to global trade. This is the first report of HpMV, HpLV and AHLV on hop germplasm in Italy.

A novel factor modulating X chromosome dosage compensation in Anopheles.

Dosage compensation (DC), a process countering chromosomal imbalance in individuals with heteromorphic sex chromosomes, has been molecularly characterized only in mammals, Caenorhabditis elegans, and fruit flies.1 In Drosophila melanogaster males, it is achieved by an approximately 2-fold hypertranscription of the monosomic X chromosome mediated by the MSL complex.2,3 The complex is not assembled on female X chromosomes because production of its key protein MSL-2 is prevented due to intron retention and inhibition of translation by Sex-lethal, a female-specific protein operating at the top of the sex determination pathway.4 It remains unclear how DC is mechanistically regulated in other insects. In the malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae, an approximately 2-fold hypertranscription of the male X also occurs5 by a yet-unknown molecular mechanism distinct from that in D. melanogaster.6 Here we show that a male-specifically spliced gene we call 007, which arose by a tandem duplication in the Anopheles ancestral lineage, is involved in the control of DC in males. Homozygous 007 knockouts lead to a global downregulation of the male X, phenotypically manifested by a slower development compared to wild-type mosquitoes or mutant females-however, without loss of viability or fertility. In females, a 007 intron retention promoted by the sex determination protein Femaleless, known to prevent hypertranscription from both X chromosomes,7 introduces a premature termination codon apparently rendering the female transcripts non-productive. In addition to providing a unique perspective on DC evolution, the 007, with its conserved properties, may represent an important addition to a genetic toolbox for malaria vector control.

A General Framework for Neutrality Tests Based on the Site Frequency Spectrum.

One of the main necessities for population geneticists is the availability of sensitive statistical tools that enable to accept or reject the standard Wright-Fisher model of neutral evolution. A number of statistical tests have been developed to detect specific deviations from the null frequency spectrum in different directions (e.g., Tajima's D, Fu and Li's F and D tests, Fay and Wu's H). A general framework exists to generate all neutrality tests that are linear functions of the frequency spectrum. In this framework, it is possible to develop a family of optimal tests with almost maximum power against a specific alternative evolutionary scenario. In this paper we provide a thorough discussion of the structure and properties of linear and nonlinear neutrality tests. First, we present the general framework for linear tests and emphasise the importance of the property of scalability with the sample size (that is, the interpretation of the tests should not depend on the sample size), which, if missing, can lead to errors in interpreting the data. After summarising the motivation and structure of linear optimal tests, we present a more general framework for the optimisation of linear tests, leading to a new family of tunable neutrality tests. In a further generalisation, we extend the framework to nonlinear neutrality tests and we derive nonlinear optimal tests for polynomials of any degree in the frequency spectrum.

Allelic Entropy and Times until Loss or Fixation of Neutral Polymorphisms.

In the diffusion approximation of the neutral Wright-Fisher model, the expected time until fixation or loss of a neutral allele is proportional to the initial entropy of the distribution of the allele in the population. No explanation is known for this coincidence. In this paper, we show that the rate of entropy dissipation is proportional to the number of segregating alleles. Since the final fixed state has zero entropy, the expected lifetime of segregating alleles is proportional to the initial entropy in the system. We show that classical formulae on the average time to loss of segregating alleles and the expected time to fixation of the last segregating allele stem from these properties of the diffusion process. We also extend our results to the case of population size changing in time. The dissipation of heterozygosity and entropy shows that superlinear population growth leads to infinite expected fixation times, i.e., neutral alleles in fast-growing populations could segregate forever without ever becoming fixed or disappearing by genetic drift.

Viral burden is associated with age, vaccination, and viral variant in a population-representative study of SARS-CoV-2 that accounts for time-since-infection-related sampling bias.

In this study, we evaluated the impact of viral variant, in addition to other variables, on within-host viral burden, by analysing cycle threshold (Ct) values derived from nose and throat swabs, collected as part of the UK COVID-19 Infection Survey. Because viral burden distributions determined from community survey data can be biased due to the impact of variant epidemiology on the time-since-infection of samples, we developed a method to explicitly adjust observed Ct value distributions to account for the expected bias. By analysing the adjusted Ct values using partial least squares regression, we found that among unvaccinated individuals with no known prior exposure, viral burden was 44% lower among Alpha variant infections, compared to those with the predecessor strain, B.1.177. Vaccination reduced viral burden by 67%, and among vaccinated individuals, viral burden was 286% higher among Delta variant, compared to Alpha variant, infections. In addition, viral burden increased by 17% for every 10-year age increment of the infected individual. In summary, within-host viral burden increases with age, is reduced by vaccination, and is influenced by the interplay of vaccination status and viral variant.

Development, Validation, and Application of Reverse Transcription Real-Time and Droplet Digital PCR Assays for the Detection of the Potyviruses Watermelon Mosaic Virus and Zucchini Yellow Mosaic Virus in Cucurbits.

Among the cucurbit-infecting viruses, watermelon mosaic virus (WMV) and zucchini yellow mosaic virus (ZYMV) (Potyvirus: Potyviridae) are responsible for severe symptoms on cucumber, melon, watermelon, and zucchini cultivations worldwide. In this study, reverse transcription real-time PCR (real-time RT-PCR) and droplet-digital PCR (RT-ddPCR) assays targeting the coat protein (CP) genes of WMV and ZYMV were developed and validated according to the international standards of plant pest diagnosis (EPPO PM 7/98 (5)). First, the diagnostic performance of WMV-CP and ZYMV-CP real-time RT-PCRs was evaluated, and the assays displayed an analytical sensitivity of 10-5 and 10-3, respectively. The tests also showed an optimal repeatability, reproducibility and analytical specificity, and were reliable for the virus detection in naturally infected samples and across a wide range of cucurbit hosts. Based on these results, the real-time RT-PCR reactions were adapted to set up RT-ddPCR assays. These were the first RT-ddPCR assays aiming at the detection and quantification of WMV and ZYMV and showed a high sensitivity, being able to detect until 9 and 8 copies/µL of WMV or ZYMV, respectively. The RT-ddPCRs allowed the direct estimation of the virus concentrations and opened to a broad range of applications in disease management, such as the evaluation of partial resistance in breeding processes, identification of antagonistic/synergistic events, and studies on the implementation of natural compounds in the integrated management strategies.

Enhancing global preparedness during an ongoing pandemic from partial and noisy data.

As the coronavirus disease 2019 spread globally, emerging variants such as B.1.1.529 quickly became dominant worldwide. Sustained community transmission favors the proliferation of mutated sub-lineages with pandemic potential, due to cross-national mobility flows, which are responsible for consecutive cases surge worldwide. We show that, in the early stages of an emerging variant, integrating data from national genomic surveillance and global human mobility with large-scale epidemic modeling allows to quantify its pandemic potential, providing quantifiable indicators for pro-active policy interventions. We validate our framework on worldwide spreading variants and gain insights about the pandemic potential of BA.5, BA.2.75, and other sub- and lineages. We combine the different sources of information in a simple estimate of the pandemic delay and show that only in combination, the pandemic potentials of the lineages are correctly assessed relative to each other. Compared to a country-level epidemic intelligence, our scalable integrated approach, that is pandemic intelligence, permits to enhance global preparedness to contrast the pandemic of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2.

In Vivo Antiphytoviral and Aphid Repellency Activity of Essential Oils and Hydrosols from Mentha suaveolens and Foeniculum vulgare to Control Zucchini Yellow Mosaic Virus and Its Vector Aphis gossypii.

In recent years, natural compounds have gained attention in many fields due to their wide-range biological activity. In particular, essential oils and their associated hydrosols are being screened to control plant pests, exerting antiviral, antimycotic and antiparasitic actions. They are more quickly and cheaply produced and are generally considered safer for the environment and non-target organisms than conventional pesticides. In this study, we report the evaluation of the biological activity of two essential oils and their corresponding hydrosols obtained from Mentha suaveolens and Foeniculum vulgare in the control of zucchini yellow mosaic virus and its vector, Aphis gossypii, in Cucurbita pepo plants. The control of the virus was ascertained with treatments applied either concurrently with or after virus infection; choice tests were performed to verify repellency activity against the aphid vector. The results indicated that treatments could decrease virus titer as measured using real-time RT-PCR, while the experiments on the vector showed that the compounds effectively repelled aphids. The extracts were also chemically characterized using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Mentha suaveolens and Foeniculum vulgare hydrosol extracts mainly comprised fenchone and decanenitrile, respectively, while essential oils analysis returned a more complex composition, as expected.

Interpreting the pervasive observation of U-shaped Site Frequency Spectra.

The standard neutral model of molecular evolution has traditionally been used as the null model for population genomics. We gathered a collection of 45 genome-wide site frequency spectra from a diverse set of species, most of which display an excess of low and high frequency variants compared to the expectation of the standard neutral model, resulting in U-shaped spectra. We show that multiple merger coalescent models often provide a better fit to these observations than the standard Kingman coalescent. Hence, in many circumstances these under-utilized models may serve as the more appropriate reference for genomic analyses. We further discuss the underlying evolutionary processes that may result in the widespread U-shape of frequency spectra.

Origin, Genetic Variation and Molecular Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 Strains Circulating in Sardinia (Italy) during the First and Second COVID-19 Epidemic Waves.

Understanding how geography and human mobility shape the patterns and spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 is key to control future epidemics. An interesting example is provided by the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Europe, which was facilitated by the intense movement of tourists around the Mediterranean coast in summer 2020. The Italian island of Sardinia is a major tourist destination and is widely believed to be the origin of the second Italian wave. In this study, we characterize the genetic variation among SARS-CoV-2 strains circulating in northern Sardinia during the first and second Italian waves using both Illumina and Oxford Nanopore Technologies Next Generation Sequencing methods. Most viruses were placed into a single clade, implying that despite substantial virus inflow, most outbreaks did not spread widely. The second epidemic wave on the island was actually driven by local transmission of a single B.1.177 subclade. Phylogeographic analyses further suggest that those viral strains circulating on the island were not a relevant source for the second epidemic wave in Italy. This result, however, does not rule out the possibility of intense mixing and transmission of the virus among tourists as a major contributor to the second Italian wave.

Epidemiological impacts of the NHS COVID-19 app in England and Wales throughout its first year.

The NHS COVID-19 app was launched in England and Wales in September 2020, with a Bluetooth-based contact tracing functionality designed to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We show that user engagement and the app's epidemiological impacts varied according to changing social and epidemic characteristics throughout the app's first year. We describe the interaction and complementarity of manual and digital contact tracing approaches. Results of our statistical analyses of anonymised, aggregated app data include that app users who were recently notified were more likely to test positive than app users who were not recently notified, by a factor that varied considerably over time. We estimate that the app's contact tracing function alone averted about 1 million cases (sensitivity analysis 450,000-1,400,000) during its first year, corresponding to 44,000 hospital cases (SA 20,000-60,000) and 9,600 deaths (SA 4600-13,000).

A chromosome-level reference genome and pangenome for barn swallow population genomics.

Insights into the evolution of non-model organisms are limited by the lack of reference genomes of high accuracy, completeness, and contiguity. Here, we present a chromosome-level, karyotype-validated reference genome and pangenome for the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica). We complement these resources with a reference-free multialignment of the reference genome with other bird genomes and with the most comprehensive catalog of genetic markers for the barn swallow. We identify potentially conserved and accelerated genes using the multialignment and estimate genome-wide linkage disequilibrium using the catalog. We use the pangenome to infer core and accessory genes and to detect variants using it as a reference. Overall, these resources will foster population genomics studies in the barn swallow, enable detection of candidate genes in comparative genomics studies, and help reduce bias toward a single reference genome.