The Predictive Performance of General Surgery Milestones on Post-Graduation Outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To establish whether Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education Milestones predict future performance of general surgery trainees. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Milestones provide bi-annual assessments of trainee progress across six competencies. It is unknown whether the Milestones predict surgeon performance after the transition to independent practice. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of surgeons with complete Milestone assessments in the fourth and fifth clinical years who treated patients in acute care hospitals within Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania, 2015-2018. To account for the multiple ways in which the Milestone assessments might predict post-graduation outcomes, we included 120 Milestones features in our elastic net machine learning models. The primary outcome was risk-adjusted patient death or serious morbidity. RESULTS: 278 general surgeons were included in the study. Milestone assessments 6-months into the fourth clinical year displayed a normal score distribution while multicollinearity and low score discrimination at the final assessment period were detected. Individual Milestones features from the Patient Care, Professionalism, and Systems-based Practice domains were most predictive of patient-related outcomes. For example, surgeons with worse patient outcomes had significantly lower scores in Patient Care 3 when compared to surgeons with better patient outcomes (High DSM, yes: 2.86 vs. no: 3.04, P=0.011). CONCLUSIONS: The Milestones features that were most predictive of better patient outcomes related to intraoperative skills, ethical principles, and patient navigation and safety, measured 12-18 months prior to graduation. The development of a parsimonious set of evidence-based Milestones that better correlate with surgeon experience could enhance surgical education.

Revisiting the Relationship Between Tumor Size and Risk in Well-Differentiated Thyroid Cancer.

Introduction: Large tumor size is associated with poorer outcomes in well-differentiated thyroid cancer, yet it remains unclear whether size >4 cm alone confers increased risk, independent of other markers of aggressive disease. The goal of this study was to assess the relationship between tumor size, other high-risk histopathological features, and survival in well-differentiated thyroid cancer and to evaluate the significance of 4 cm as a cutoff for management decisions. Methods: Patients with well-differentiated thyroid cancer were identified from the National Cancer Database (2010-2015) and categorized by tumor size (i.e., small [≤4 cm] or large [>4 cm]) and presence of high-risk histopathological features (e.g., extrathyroidal extension). First, propensity score matching was used to identify patients who were similar across all other observed characteristics except for small versus large tumor size, and a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the relationship between tumor size and survival. Second, we assessed whether the presence of high-risk features demonstrates conditional effects on survival based on the presence of tumor size >4 cm using an interaction term. Finally, additional models assessed the relationship between incremental 1 cm increases in tumor size and survival. Analyses were repeated using a validation cohort from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (2008-2013). Results: Of 193,133 patients in the primary cohort, 7.9% had tumors >4 cm, and 30% had at least one high-risk feature. After matching, tumor size >4 cm was independently associated with worse survival (HR 1.63, p < 0.001). However, tumor size >4 cm and one or more other high-risk features together yielded worse survival than either size >4 cm alone (MMD: 0.70, p < 0.001) or other high-risk features alone (MMD: 0.49, p < 0.001). When assessed in 1 cm increments, the largest increases in hazard of death occurred at 2 cm and 5 cm, not 4 cm. Results from the validation cohort were largely consistent with our primary findings. Conclusions: Concomitant high-risk features confer worse survival than large tumor size alone, and a 4 cm cutoff is not associated with the greatest increase in risk. These findings support a more nuanced approach to tumor size in the management of well-differentiated thyroid cancer.

Surgeon and Surgical Trainee Experiences After Adverse Patient Events.

Importance: Adverse patient events are inevitable in surgical practice. Objectives: To characterize the impact of adverse patient events on surgeons and trainees, identify coping mechanisms, and assess whether current forms of support are sufficient. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this mixed-methods study, a validated survey instrument was adapted and distributed to surgical trainees from 7 programs, and qualitative interviews were conducted with faculty from 4 surgical departments in an urban academic health system. Main Outcomes and Measures: The personal impact of adverse patient events, current coping mechanisms, and desired forms of support. Results: Of 216 invited trainees, 93 (43.1%) completed the survey (49 [52.7%] male; 60 [64.5%] in third postgraduate year or higher; 23 [24.7%] Asian or Pacific Islander, 6 [6.5%] Black, 51 [54.8%] White, and 8 [8.6%] other race; 13 [14.0%] Hispanic or Latinx ethnicity). Twenty-three of 29 (79.3%) invited faculty completed interviews (13 [56.5%] male; median [IQR] years in practice, 11.0 [7.5-20.0]). Of the trainees, 77 (82.8%) endorsed involvement in at least 1 recent adverse event. Most reported embarrassment (67 of 79 trainees [84.8%]), rumination (64 of 78 trainees [82.1%]), and fear of attempting future procedures (51 of 78 trainees [65.4%]); 28 of 78 trainees (35.9%) had considered quitting. Female trainees and trainees who identified as having a race and/or ethnicity other than non-Hispanic White consistently reported more negative consequences compared with male and White trainees. The most desired form of support was the opportunity to discuss the incident with an attending physician (76 of 78 respondents [97.4%]). Similarly, faculty described feelings of guilt and shame, loss of confidence, and distraction after adverse events. Most described the utility of confiding in peers and senior colleagues, although some expressed unwillingness to reach out. Several suggested designating a departmental point person for event debriefing. Conclusions and Relevance: In this mixed-methods study of the personal impact of adverse events on surgeons and trainees, these events were nearly universally experienced and caused significant distress. Providing formal support mechanisms for both surgical trainees and faculty may decrease stigma and restore confidence, particularly for underrepresented groups.

Navigating the penetrance and phenotypic spectrum of inherited cardiomyopathies.

Inherited cardiomyopathies are genetic diseases that can lead to heart failure and sudden cardiac death. These conditions tend to run in families, following an autosomal dominant pattern where first-degree relatives have a 50% chance of carrying the pathogenic variant. Despite significant advancements and increased accessibility of genetic testing, accurately predicting the phenotypic expression of these conditions remains challenging due to the inherent variability in their clinical manifestations and the incomplete penetrance observed. This poses challenges in providing patient care and effectively communicating the potential risk of future disease to patients and their families. To address these challenges, this review aims to synthesize the available evidence on penetrance, expressivity, and factors influencing disease expression to improve communication and risk assessment for patients with inherited cardiomyopathies and their family members.

Surgical Management of Metastatic Adrenocortical Carcinoma.

Introduction: Adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) is a notoriously aggressive cancer with a dismal prognosis, especially for patients with metastatic disease. Metastatic ACC is classically a contraindication to operative management. Here, we evaluate the impact of primary tumor resection and metastasectomy on survival in metastatic ACC. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with metastatic ACC (2010-2019) utilizing the National Cancer Database. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS). Cox proportional hazards models were developed to evaluate the associations between surgical management and survival. Propensity score matching (PSM) was utilized to account for selection bias in receipt of surgery. Results: Of 976 subjects with metastatic ACC, 38% underwent surgical management. Median OS across all patients was 7.6 months. On multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, primary tumor resection alone (HR: 0.523; p<0.001) and primary resection with metastasectomy (HR: 0.372; p<0.001) were significantly associated with improved OS. Metastasectomy alone had no association with OS (HR: 0.909; p=0.740). Primary resection with metastasectomy was associated with improved OS over resection of the primary tumor alone (HR: 0.636; p=0.018). After PSM, resection of the primary tumor alone remained associated with improved OS (HR 0.593; p<0.001), and metastasectomy alone had no survival benefit (HR 0.709; p=0.196) compared with non-operative management; combined resection was associated with improved OS over primary tumor resection alone (HR 0.575, p=0.008). Conclusion: In metastatic ACC, patients may benefit from primary tumor resection alone or in combination with metastasectomy, however further research is required to facilitate appropriate patient selection.

Should I See You Again Soon? Multispecialty Assessment of Impact and Burden of Preoperative History and Physical Update Visits.

BACKGROUND: Federal regulations require a history and physical (H&P) update performed 30 days or less before a planned procedure. We evaluated the use and burdens of H&P update visits by determining impact on operative management, suitability for telehealth, and visit time and travel burden. STUDY DESIGN: We identified H&P update visits performed in our health system during 2019 for 8 surgical specialties. As available, up to 50 visits per specialty were randomly selected. Primary outcomes were interval changes in history, examination, or operative plan between the initial and updated H&P notes, and visit suitability for telehealth, as determined by 2 independent physician reviewers. Clinic time was captured, and round-trip driving time and distance between patients' home and clinic ZIP codes were estimated. RESULTS: We identified 8,683 visits and 362 were randomly selected for review. Documented changes were most commonly identified in histories (60.8%), but rarely in physical examinations (11.9%) and operative plans (11.6%). Of 362 visits, 359 (99.2%) visits were considered suitable for telehealth. Median clinic time was 52 minutes (interquartile range 33.8 to 78), driving time was 55.6 minutes (interquartile range 35.5 to 85.5), and driving distance was 20.2 miles (interquartile range 8.5 to 38.4). At the health system level, patients spent an estimated aggregate 7,000 hours (including 4,046 hours of waiting room and travel time) and drove 142,273 miles to attend in-person H&P update visits in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Given their minimal impact on operative management, regulatory requirements for in-person H&P updates should be reconsidered. Flexibility in update timing and modality might help defray the substantial burdens these visits impose on patients.

Belonging in Surgery: A Validated Instrument and Single Institutional Pilot.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop and validate an instrument to measure Belonging in Surgery among surgical residents. BACKGROUND: Belonging is the essential human need to maintain meaningful relationships and connections to one's community. Increased belongingness is associated with better well-being, job performance, and motivation to learn. However, no tools exist to measure belonging among surgical trainees. METHODS: A panel of experts adapted a belonging instrument for use among United States surgery residents. After administration of the 28-item instrument to residents at a single institution, a Cronbach alpha was calculated to measure internal consistency, and exploratory principal component analyses were performed. Multiple iterations of analyses with successively smaller item samples suggested the instrument could be shortened. The expert panel was reconvened to shorten the instrument. Descriptive statistics measured demographic factors associated with Belonging in Surgery. RESULTS: The overall response rate was 52% (114 responses). The Cronbach alpha among the 28 items was 0.94 (95% CI: 0.93-0.96). The exploratory principal component analyses and subsequent Promax rotation yielded 1 dominant component with an eigenvalue of 12.84 (70% of the variance). The expert panel narrowed the final instrument to 11 items with an overall Cronbach alpha of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86, 0.92). Belonging in Surgery was significantly associated with race (Black and Asian residents scoring lower than White residents), graduating with one's original intern cohort (residents who graduated with their original class scoring higher than those that did not), and inversely correlated with resident stress level. CONCLUSIONS: An instrument to measure Belonging in Surgery was validated among surgical residents. With this instrument, Belonging in Surgery becomes a construct that may be used to investigate surgeon performance and well-being.

Sex differences and racial/ethnic disparities in the presentation and treatment of medullary thyroid cancer.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed for disparities in the presentation and management of medullary thyroid cancer (MTC). METHODS: Patients with MTC (2010-2020) were identified from the National Cancer Database. Differences in disease presentation and likelihood of guideline-concordant surgical management (total thyroidectomy and resection of ≥1 lymph node) were assessed by sex and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Of 6154 patients, 68.2% underwent guideline-concordant surgery. Tumors >4 â€‹cm were more likely in men (vs. women: OR 2.47, p â€‹< â€‹0.001) and Hispanic patients (vs. White patients: OR 1.52, p â€‹= â€‹0.001). Non-White patients were more likely to have distant metastases (Black: OR 1.63, p â€‹= â€‹0.002; Hispanic: OR 1.44, p â€‹= â€‹0.038) and experienced longer time to surgery (Black: HR 0.66, p â€‹< â€‹0.001; Hispanic: HR 0.71, p â€‹< â€‹0.001). Black patients were less likely to undergo guideline-concordant surgery (OR 0.70, p â€‹= â€‹0.022). CONCLUSIONS: Male and non-White patients with MTC more frequently present with advanced disease, and Black patients are less likely to undergo guideline-concordant surgery.

Barriers and Facilitators to Clinical Practice Development in Men and Women Surgeons.

Importance: Many early-career surgeons struggle to develop their clinical practices, leading to high rates of burnout and attrition. Furthermore, women in surgery receive fewer, less complex, and less remunerative referrals compared with men. An enhanced understanding of the social and structural barriers to optimal growth and equity in clinical practice development is fundamental to guiding interventions to support academic surgeons. Objective: To identify the barriers and facilitators to clinical practice development with attention to differences related to surgeon gender. Design, Setting, and Participants: A multi-institutional qualitative descriptive study was performed using semistructured interviews analyzed with a grounded theory approach. Interviews were conducted at 5 academic medical centers in the US between July 12, 2022, and January 31, 2023. Surgeons with at least 1 year of independent practice experience were selected using purposeful sampling to obtain a representative sample by gender, specialty, academic rank, and years of experience. Main Outcomes and Measures: Surgeon perspectives on external barriers and facilitators of clinical practice development and strategies to support practice development for new academic surgeons. Results: A total of 45 surgeons were interviewed (23 women [51%], 18 with ≤5 years of experience [40%], and 20 with ≥10 years of experience [44%]). Surgeons reported barriers and facilitators related to their colleagues, department, institution, and environment. Dominant themes for both genders were related to competition, case distribution among partners, resource allocation, and geographic market saturation. Women surgeons reported additional challenges related to gender-based discrimination (exclusion, questioning of expertise, role misidentification, salary disparities, and unequal resource allocation) and additional demands (related to appearance, self-advocacy, and nonoperative patient care). Gender concordance with patients and referring physicians was a facilitator of practice development for women. Surgeons suggested several strategies for their colleagues, department, and institution to improve practice development by amplifying facilitators and promoting objectivity and transparency in resource allocation and referrals. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this qualitative study suggest that a surgeon's external context has a substantial influence on their practice development. Academic institutions and departments of surgery may consider the influence of their structures and policies on early career surgeons to accelerate practice development and workplace equity.

Perceived Implications of Compensation Structure for Academic Surgical Practice: A Qualitative Study.

This qualitative study examines how incentive-based and salary-only compensation models affect academic surgeons.

The use and costs of same-day surgery versus overnight admission for total thyroidectomy: A multi-state, all-payer analysis.

BACKGROUND: Outpatient thyroidectomy is increasingly favored, given evidence of safety and convenience for selected patients. However, the prevalence of same-day discharge is unclear. We aimed to evaluate temporal trends, hospital characteristics, and costs associated with same-day discharge after total thyroidectomy in an all-payer, multi-state cohort. METHODS: We included patients aged ≥18 years who underwent a total thyroidectomy (2013-2019) using Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project data. Admission type was defined as same-day, overnight, or inpatient based on length of stay. Same-day patients were propensity-score matched 1:1 with overnight patients. Hospital characteristics and costs were compared in the matched cohort. RESULTS: Among 86,187 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy, 16,743 (19.4%) cases were same-day, 59,778 (69.4%) were overnight, and 9,666 (11.2%) were inpatient. The proportion of patients who underwent same-day thyroidectomy increased from 14.8% to 20.8% over the study period (P < .001), whereas overnight admissions decreased from 72.9% to 68.8% (P < .001). In total, 9,571 same-day patients were matched to 9,571 overnight patients. Same-day patients had higher odds of treatment at a certified cancer center (odds ratio 1.77; 95% confidence interval 1.65-1.90), Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education-accredited teaching hospital (odds ratio 1.72; 95% confidence interval 1.61-1.85), and high-volume hospital (odds ratio 1.53; 95% confidence interval 1.42-1.65). Pairwise cost differences showed median savings of $974 (interquartile range -1,610 to 3,491) for same-day relative to overnight admission (P < .001). CONCLUSION: Although over two-thirds of patients are admitted overnight, same-day total thyroidectomy is increasingly performed. Same-day thyroidectomy may be a lower-cost option for selected patients, particularly in specialty centers with experience in thyroidectomy.

Inefficiencies of care in hub and spoke healthcare systems: A multi-state cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Complex surgical care is often centralized to one high volume (hub) hospital within a system. The benefit of this centralization in common operations is unknown. METHODS: Using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's State Inpatient Databases, adult general surgical patients within hospital systems in 13 states (2016-2018) were identified. Risk-adjusted logistic regression estimated the odds of death or serious morbidity (DSM) and prolonged length of stay (LOS) at hubs relative to other system hospitals (spokes). RESULTS: We identified 122,895 patients across 43 hub-and-spoke systems. Hubs completed 83.2 â€‹% of complex and 59.6 â€‹% of common operations. For complex operations, odds of DSM were significantly lower in hubs (OR: 0.80; 95 â€‹% CI [0.65, 0.98]). For common operations, odds of DSM were similar between hubs and spokes, while odds of prolonged LOS were greater at hubs (OR 1.19; 95 â€‹% CI [1.16,1.24]). CONCLUSIONS: While hub hospitals had lower odds of DSM for complex operation, they had higher odds of prolonged length of stay for common operations. This finding shows an opportunity for improved system efficiency.

The effect of Section 1557 of the Affordable Care Act on surgical outcomes in non-English primary language speakers.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, Section 1557 mandated use of qualified language interpreter services. We examined the effect of Section 1557 on surgical outcomes. METHODS: Utilizing the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Database (2013-2020), we performed a difference-in-differences analysis of adult surgical patients (Maryland, New Jersey). The exposure was implementation of Section 1557 (pre-period: 2013-2015; post-period: 2017-2020). The treatment group was non-English primary language speakers (n-EPL). The comparison group was English primary language speakers (EPL). Outcomes included length-of-stay, postoperative complications, mortality, discharge disposition, and readmissions. RESULTS: Among 2,298,584 patients, 198,385 (8.6%) were n-EPL. After implementation of Section 1557, n-EPL saw no difference in readmission rates but did experience significantly higher rates of mortality (+0.43%, p â€‹= â€‹0.049) and non-routine discharges (+1.81%, p â€‹= â€‹0.031) in Maryland, and higher rates of post-operative complications (+0.31%, p â€‹= â€‹0.001) in both states, compared to pre-Section 1557. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to our hypothesis, Section 1557 did not improve surgical outcomes for n-EPL.

Variation in Hospital Performance for General Surgery in Younger and Older Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare hospital surgical performance in older and younger patients. BACKGROUND: In-hospital mortality after surgical procedures varies widely among hospitals. Prior studies suggest that failure-to-rescue rates drive this variation for older adults, but the generalizability of these findings to younger patients remains unknown. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥18 years undergoing one of 10 common and complex general surgery operations in 16 states using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Projects State Inpatient Databases (2016-2018). Patients were split into 2 populations: patients with Medicare ≥65 (older adult) and non-Medicare <65 (younger adult). Hospitals were sorted into quintiles using risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality rates for each age population. Correlations between hospitals in each mortality quintile across age populations were calculated. Complication and failure-to-rescue rates were compared across the highest and lowest mortality quintiles in each age population. RESULTS: We identified 579,582 patients treated in 732 hospitals. The mortality rate was 3.6% among older adults and 0.7% among younger adults. Among older adults, high- relative to low-mortality hospitals had similar complication rates (32.0% vs 29.8%; P = 0.059) and significantly higher failure-to-rescue rates (16.0% vs 4.0%; P < 0.001). Among younger adults, high-relative to low-mortality hospitals had higher complications (15.4% vs 12.1%; P < 0.001) and failure-to-rescue rates (8.3% vs 0.7%; P < 0.001). The correlation between observed-to-expected mortality ratios in each age group was 0.385 ( P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: High surgical mortality rates in younger patients may be driven by both complication and failure-to-rescue rates. There is little overlap between low-mortality hospitals in the older and younger adult populations. Future work must delve into the root causes of this age-based difference in hospital-level surgical outcomes.

Association of Established Primary Care Use With Postoperative Mortality Following Emergency General Surgery Procedures.

Importance: Sixty-five million individuals in the US live in primary care shortage areas with nearly one-third of Medicare patients in need of a primary care health care professional. Periodic health examinations and preventive care visits have demonstrated a benefit for surgical patients; however, the impact of primary care health care professional shortages on adverse outcomes from surgery is largely unknown. Objective: To determine if preoperative primary care utilization is associated with postoperative mortality following an emergency general surgery (EGS) operation among Black and White older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a retrospective cohort study that took place at US hospitals with an emergency department. Participants were Medicare patients aged 66 years or older who were admitted from the emergency department for an EGS condition between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2018, and underwent an operation on hospital day 0, 1, or 2. The analysis was performed during December 2022. Patients were classified into 1 of 5 EGS condition categories based on principal diagnosis codes; colorectal, general abdominal, hepatopancreatobiliary, intestinal obstruction, or upper gastrointestinal. Mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression was used in the risk-adjusted models. An interaction term model was used to measure effect modification by race. Exposure: Primary care utilization in the year prior to presentation for an EGS operation. Main Outcome and Measures: In-hospital, 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and 180-day mortality. Results: A total of 102 384 patients (mean age, 73.8 [SD, 11.5] years) were included in the study. Of those, 8559 were Black (8.4%) and 93 825 were White (91.6%). A total of 88 340 patients (86.3%) had seen a primary care physician in the year prior to their index hospitalization. After risk adjustment, patients with primary care exposure had 19% lower odds of in-hospital mortality than patients without primary care exposure (odds ratio [OR], 0.81; 95% CI, 0.72-0.92). At 30 days patients with primary care exposure had 27% lower odds of mortality (OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67-0.80). This remained relatively stable at 60 days (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.81), 90 days (OR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.69-0.81), and 180 days (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.81). None of the interactions between race and primary care physician exposure for mortality at any time interval were significantly different. Conclusions and Relevance: In this observational study of Black and White Medicare patients, primary care utilization had no impact on in-hospital mortality for Black patients, but was associated with decreased mortality for White patients. Primary care utilization was associated with decreased mortality for both Black and White patients at 30, 60, 90 and 180 days.

Disparities in Presentation, Treatment, and Survival in Anaplastic Thyroid Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Disparities have been previously described in the presentation, management, and outcomes of other thyroid cancer subtypes; however, it is unclear whether such disparities exist in anaplastic thyroid cancer (ATC). METHODS: We identified patients with ATC from the National Cancer Database (2004-2020). The primary outcomes were receipt of surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation. The secondary outcome was 1-year survival. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to assess the associations between sex, race/ethnicity, and the outcomes. RESULTS: Among 5359 patients included, 58% were female, and 80% were non-Hispanic white. Median tumor size was larger in males than females (6.5 vs. 6.0 cm; p < 0.001) and in patients with minority race/ethnicity than in white patients (6.5 vs. 6.0 cm; p < 0.001). After controlling for tumor size and metastatic disease, female patients were more likely to undergo surgical resection (odds ratio [OR]: 1.20; p = 0.016) but less likely to undergo chemotherapy (OR: 0.72; p < 0.001) and radiation (OR: 0.76; p < 0.001) compared with males. Additionally, patients from minority racial/ethnic backgrounds were less likely to undergo chemotherapy (OR: 0.69; p < 0.001) and radiation (OR: 0.71; p < 0.001) than white patients. Overall, unadjusted, 1-year survival was 23%, with differences in treatment receipt accounting for small but significant differences in survival between groups. CONCLUSIONS: There are disparities in the presentation and treatment of ATC by sex and race/ethnicity that likely reflect differences in access to care as well as patient and provider preferences. While survival is similarly poor across groups, the changing landscape of treatments for ATC warrants efforts to address the potential for exacerbation of disparities.

A Novel Mobile App to Identify Patients With Multimorbidity in the Emergency Setting: Development of an App and Feasibility Trial.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is associated with an increased risk of poor surgical outcomes among older adults; however, identifying multimorbidity in the clinical setting can be a challenge. OBJECTIVE: We created the Multimorbid Patient Identifier App (MMApp) to easily identify patients with multimorbidity identified by the presence of a Qualifying Comorbidity Set and tested its feasibility for use in future clinical research, validation, and eventually to guide clinical decision-making. METHODS: We adapted the Qualifying Comorbidity Sets' claims-based definition of multimorbidity for clinical use through a modified Delphi approach and developed MMApp. A total of 10 residents input 5 hypothetical emergency general surgery patient scenarios, common among older adults, into the MMApp and examined MMApp test characteristics for a total of 50 trials. For MMApp, comorbidities selected for each scenario were recorded, along with the number of comorbidities correctly chosen, incorrectly chosen, and missed for each scenario. The sensitivity and specificity of identifying a patient as multimorbid using MMApp were calculated using composite data from all scenarios. To assess model feasibility, we compared the mean task completion by scenario to that of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS-NSQIP-SRC) using paired t tests. Usability and satisfaction with MMApp were assessed using an 18-item questionnaire administered immediately after completing all 5 scenarios. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the task completion time between the MMApp and the ACS-NSQIP-SRC for scenarios A (86.3 seconds vs 74.3 seconds, P=.85) or C (58.4 seconds vs 68.9 seconds,P=.064), MMapp took less time for scenarios B (76.1 seconds vs 87.4 seconds, P=.03) and E (20.7 seconds vs 73 seconds, P<.001), and more time for scenario D (78.8 seconds vs 58.5 seconds, P=.02). The MMApp identified multimorbidity with 96.7% (29/30) sensitivity and 95% (19/20) specificity. User feedback was positive regarding MMApp's usability, efficiency, and usefulness. CONCLUSIONS: The MMApp identified multimorbidity with high sensitivity and specificity and did not require significantly more time to complete than a commonly used web-based risk-stratification tool for most scenarios. Mean user times were well under 2 minutes. Feedback was overall positive from residents regarding the usability and usefulness of this app, even in the emergency general surgery setting. It would be feasible to use MMApp to identify patients with multimorbidity in the emergency general surgery setting for validation, research, and eventual clinical use. This type of mobile app could serve as a template for other research teams to create a tool to easily screen participants for potential enrollment.

Development of a Machine Learning Model to Identify Colorectal Cancer Stage in Medicare Claims.

PURPOSE: Staging information is essential for colorectal cancer research. Medicare claims are an important source of population-level data but currently lack oncologic stage. We aimed to develop a claims-based model to identify stage at diagnosis in patients with colorectal cancer. METHODS: We included patients age 66 years or older with colorectal cancer in the SEER-Medicare registry. Using patients diagnosed from 2014 to 2016, we developed models (multinomial logistic regression, elastic net regression, and random forest) to classify patients into stage I-II, III, or IV on the basis of demographics, diagnoses, and treatment utilization identified in Medicare claims. Models developed in a training cohort (2014-2016) were applied to a testing cohort (2017), and performance was evaluated using cancer stage listed in the SEER registry as the reference standard. RESULTS: The cohort of patients with 30,543 colorectal cancer included 14,935 (48.9%) patients with stage I-II, 9,203 (30.1%) with stage III, and 6,405 (21%) with stage IV disease. A claims-based model using elastic net regression had a scaled Brier score (SBS) of 0.45 (95% CI, 0.43 to 0.46). Performance was strongest for classifying stage IV (SBS, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.64; sensitivity, 93%; 95% CI, 91 to 94) followed by stage I-II (SBS, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.47; sensitivity, 86%; 95% CI, 85 to 76) and stage III (SBS, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.33; sensitivity, 62%; 95% CI, 61 to 64). CONCLUSION: Machine learning models effectively classified colorectal cancer stage using Medicare claims. These models extend the ability of claims-based research to risk-adjust and stratify by stage.