Molecular epidemiology of HIV among people who inject drugs after the HIV-outbreak in Athens, Greece: Evidence for a 'slow burn' outbreak.

BACKGROUND: New diagnoses of HIV-1 infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Athens, Greece, saw a significant increase in 2011 and a subsequent decline after 2013. Despite this, ongoing HIV-1 transmission persisted from 2014 to 2020 within this population. Our objective was to estimate the time of infection for PWID in Athens following the HIV-1 outbreak, explore the patterns of HIV-1 dispersal over time, and determine the duration from infection to diagnosis. METHODS: Time from HIV-1 infection to diagnosis was estimated for 844 individuals infected within 4 PWID-specific clusters and for 8 PWID infected with sub-subtype A6 diagnosed during 2010-2019. Phylogeny reconstruction was performed using the maximum-likelihood method. HIV-1 infection dates were based on molecular clock calculations. RESULTS: In total 86 of 92 (93.5%) sequences from PWID diagnosed during 2016-2019 were either related to the previously identified PWID-specific clusters (n = 81) or belonged to a new A6 cluster (n = 5). The median time between infection and diagnosis was 0.42 years during the outbreak period and 0.70 years during 2016-2019 (p < 0.001). The proportion of clustered sequences from PWID was very low at 5.3% during the pre-outbreak period (1998-2009), saw an increase to 41.7% one year before the outbreak in 2010, and consistently remained high during the whole period after 2011, spanning the post-outbreak period (2016-2019) with a range from 92.9% to 100%. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial proportion of clustered infections (93.5%) during 2016-2019 implies a persistent 'slow burn' HIV outbreak among PWID in Athens, suggesting that the outbreak was not successfully eliminated. The consistently high proportion of clustered sequences since the onset of the outbreak suggests the persistence of ongoing HIV-1 transmission attributed to injection practices. Our findings underscore the importance of targeted interventions among PWID, considering the ongoing transmission rate and prolonged time from infection to diagnosis.

Modeling the impact of interventions during an outbreak of HIV infection among people who inject drugs in 2012-2013 in Athens, Greece.

BACKGROUND: A large HIV outbreak in People Who Inject Drugs (PWID) occurred in Athens, Greece in 2011-2013. In response, opioid substitution treatment (OST) and needle and syringe programs (NSP) were scaled-up and a seek-test-treat program was introduced in mid-2012. We aim to assess the impact of these interventions. METHODS: A mathematical model of HIV transmission among PWID was calibrated to data available over time (2009-2013) on HIV prevalence, NSP/antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and high-risk injection. A combined interventions scenario, including decrease in high-risk injection through linkage to OST and modification of risk behaviours and access to NSP and ART, was compared to a counterfactual scenario (no improvement at the levels of these interventions), with HIV incidence being the main outcome. RESULTS: HIV incidence increased from <0.1 new cases/100 person-years (in 2009) to 11.0 new cases/100 person-years (in 2012). Under both models, a subsequent decline was projected following early 2012, with incidence at the end of 2013 in the combined interventions scenario being lower by 77% compared to the counterfactual. The projected reduction in incidence under the intervention scenario was in agreement with empirical data. HIV prevalence would have escalated to 20.4% (95% CrI: 16.9%, 23.6%) in 2013 under the counterfactual scenario (vs. 16.8% (95% CrI: 11.2%, 23.0%) under the combined interventions scenario). In total, 31.4% of HIV cases (392) were averted over 2012-2013. CONCLUSION: These results underline the importance of high-coverage harm reduction programs and of community-based interventions to rapidly reach PWID most in need.

Ongoing HIV transmission following a large outbreak among people who inject drugs in Athens, Greece (2014-20).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreak among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Athens, Greece in 2011-13 was the largest recent epidemic in Europe and North America. We aimed to assess trends in HIV prevalence, drug use and access to prevention among PWID in Athens to estimate HIV incidence and identify risk factors and to explore HIV-1 dispersal using molecular methods during 2014-20. METHODS: Two community-based HIV/hepatitis C programmes on PWID were implemented in 2012-13 (n = 3320) and 2018-20 (n = 1635) through consecutive respondent-driven sampling (RDS) rounds. PWID were uniquely identified among rounds/programmes. We obtained RDS-weighted HIV prevalence estimates per round for 2018-20 and compared them to 2012-13. We assessed changes in HIV status, behaviours and access to prevention in PWID participating in both periods. We estimated HIV incidence in a cohort of seronegative PWID as the number of HIV seroconversions/100 person-years during 2014-20 and used Cox regression to identify associated risk factors. Molecular sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were performed in HIV seroconverters. RESULTS: HIV prevalence per round ranged between 12.0 and 16.2% in 2012-13 and 10.7 and 11.3% in 2018-20 with overlapping 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Among PWID participating in both programmes, HIV prevalence (95% CI) increased from 14.2% (11.7-17.1%) in 2012-13 to 22.0% (19.0-25.3%) in 2018-20 (P < 0.001). There was a deterioration in socio-economic characteristics such as homelessness [from 16.2% (95% CI = 13.5-19.2%) to 25.6% (22.3-29.0%)], a shift in cocaine use [16.6% (13.9-19.6%) versus 28.1% (24.7-31.7%], reduced access to free syringes [51.8% (48.0-55.7%) versus 44.5% (40.7-48.3%)] and a decrease in daily injecting [36.2% (32.6-39.9%) versus 28.5% (25.2-32.1%)]. HIV incidence (95% CI) in 2014-20 was 1.94 (1.50-2.52) new cases/100 person-years and younger age, lower educational level, larger injection network and daily injecting were risk factors. Almost 9% of HIV seroconversions occurred within a newly expanding phylogenetic cluster. CONCLUSIONS: In Athens, Greece, compared with the period 2012-13, in the period 2018-20 there was a deterioration in socio-economic conditions among people who inject drugs, an increase in the use of cocaine, reduced access to needle and syringe programmes and stable low levels of human immunodeficiency virus testing. Ongoing human immunodeficiency virus transmission was documented during 2014-20 in existing as well as new transmission clusters.