Logistic regression model to predict acute uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis.

INTRODUCTION: While patients with acute uncomplicated appendicitis may be treated conservatively, those who suffer from complicated appendicitis require surgery. We describe a logistic regression equation to calculate the likelihood of acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis in patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected acute appendicitis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cohort of 895 patients who underwent appendicectomy were analysed retrospectively. Depending on the final histology, patients were divided into three groups; normal appendix, acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis. Normal appendix was considered the reference category, while acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis were the nominal categories. Multivariate and univariate regression models were undertaken to detect independent variables with significant odds ratio that can predict acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis. Subsequently, a logistic regression equation was generated to produce the likelihood acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis. RESULTS: Pathological diagnosis of normal appendix, acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis was identified in 188 (21%), 525 (59%) and 182 patients (20%), respectively. The odds ratio from a univariate analysis to predict complicated appendicitis for age, female gender, log2 white cell count, log2 C-reactive protein and log2 bilirubin were 1.02 (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.01, 1.04), 2.37 (95% CI 1.51, 3.70), 9.74 (95% CI 5.41, 17.5), 1.57 (95% CI 1.40, 1.74), 2.08 (95% CI 1.56, 2.76), respectively. For the same variable, similar odds ratios were demonstrated in a multivariate analysis to predict complicated appendicitis and univariate and multivariate analysis to predict acute uncomplicated appendicitis. CONCLUSIONS: The likelihood of acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis can be calculated by using the reported predictive equations integrated into a web application at www.appendistat.com. This will enable clinicians to determine the probability of appendicitis and the need for urgent surgery in case of complicated appendicitis.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: effect of fibre supplementation on chronic idiopathic constipation in adults.

BACKGROUND: Chronic idiopathic constipation is a common symptom-based gastrointestinal disorder responsible for a substantial economic health service burden. Current guidelines recommend the use of fibre as a first-line treatment. AIM: To investigate the effect of fibre (including prebiotic) supplementation on global symptom response, stool output, gut microbiota composition and adverse events in adults with chronic idiopathic constipation. METHODS: Medline, EmBase, Web of Science, Scopus and the Cochrane central register of controlled trials were searched through to February 2016. Conference proceedings from 2003 to 2015 were hand-searched. There were no language restrictions. Forest plots with 95% CIs were generated using a random-effects model. RESULTS: The search strategy generated 1072 citations, of which seven individual randomised controlled trials were eligible. Overall, 113 of 147 (77%) patients assigned to fibre responded to therapy, compared with 61 of 140 (44%) allocated to placebo (RR of success to respond 1.71, 95% CI 1.20-2.42, P = 0.003). Fibre significantly increased stool frequency (SMD, standardised mean difference = 0.39; 95% CI 0.03-0.76; P = 0.03) and softened stool consistency (SMD = 0.35; 95% CI 0.04-0.65; P = 0.02) compared with placebo. Flatulence was significantly higher with fibre compared to placebo (SMD 0.56, 0.12-1.00, P = 0.01). Overall quality of evidence was low. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis demonstrates that fibre is moderately effective, but also causes moderate gastrointestinal side effects. However, these findings need to be treated with caution due to a high risk of bias. Accordingly, further large, methodologically rigorous trials are required, before any definitive recommendation regarding its risk-benefit profile can be made. PROSPERO registration number CRD42014007005.

Development and validation of the disease-specific Short Bowel Syndrome-Quality of Life (SBS-QoL™) scale.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Subjects with short bowel syndrome (SBS) have impaired quality of life (QoL). No disease-specific instrument has been available to measure treatment-induced changes in QoL over time. Therefore, the aim was to develop and validate an SBS-specific QoL scale. METHODS: Classical test theory and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance were applied for development and validation of the SBS-QoL™. Procedures included item generation and raw scale construction. Factor analysis, construct validity and internal consistency were assessed in a non-interventional observation, test re-test reliability and responsiveness in a randomised clinical study. RESULTS: The SBS-QoL™ comprises 17 items including two subscales. Subjects assessed the scale as easy to handle and comprehensible. Good construct validity was shown by comparison with the Home Parenteral Nutrition-Quality Of Life questionnaire as an external scale, which yielded moderately high correlation (r ≥ 0.7). High internal consistency was demonstrated (Cronbach's alpha: 0.94). Also the test re-test reliability was high (r ≥ 0.95), indicating reliable reproducibility of results. The Responsiveness Index (1.84) indicated the ability of the scale to detect changes in QoL over time. CONCLUSIONS: The SBS-QoL™ is an easy to handle and comprehensible SBS-specific subject-reported QoL scale. It is valid, reliable and sensitive with excellent psychometric characteristics to measure treatment-induced changes in QoL over time in subjects with SBS.