Methods for evaluating variability in human health dose-response characterization.

The Reference Dose (RfD) and Reference Concentration (RfC) are human health reference values (RfVs) representing exposure concentrations at or below which there is presumed to be little risk of adverse effects in the general human population. The 2009 National Research Council report Science and Decisions recommended redefining RfVs as "a risk-specific dose (for example, the dose associated with a 1 in 100,000 risk of a particular end point)." Distributions representing variability in human response to environmental contaminant exposures are critical for deriving risk-specific doses. Existing distributions estimating the extent of human toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic variability are based largely on controlled human exposure studies of pharmaceuticals. New data and methods have been developed that are designed to improve estimation of the quantitative variability in human response to environmental chemical exposures. Categories of research with potential to provide new database useful for developing updated human variability distributions include controlled human experiments, human epidemiology, animal models of genetic variability, in vitro estimates of toxicodynamic variability, and in vitro-based models of toxicokinetic variability. In vitro approaches, with further development including studies of different cell types and endpoints, and approaches to incorporate non-genetic sources of variability, appear to provide the greatest opportunity for substantial near-term advances.

Exploring consumer exposure pathways and patterns of use for chemicals in the environment.

Humans are exposed to thousands of chemicals in the workplace, home, and via air, water, food, and soil. A major challenge in estimating chemical exposures is to understand which chemicals are present in these media and microenvironments. Here we describe the Chemical/Product Categories Database (CPCat), a new, publically available (http://actor.epa.gov/cpcat) database of information on chemicals mapped to "use categories" describing the usage or function of the chemical. CPCat was created by combining multiple and diverse sources of data on consumer- and industrial-process based chemical uses from regulatory agencies, manufacturers, and retailers in various countries. The database uses a controlled vocabulary of 833 terms and a novel nomenclature to capture and streamline descriptors of chemical use for 43,596 chemicals from the various sources. Examples of potential applications of CPCat are provided, including identifying chemicals to which children may be exposed and to support prioritization of chemicals for toxicity screening. CPCat is expected to be a valuable resource for regulators, risk assessors, and exposure scientists to identify potential sources of human exposures and exposure pathways, particularly for use in high-throughput chemical exposure assessment.

Condition-dependent mate choice: A stochastic dynamic programming approach.

We study how changing female condition during the mating season and condition-dependent search costs impact female mate choice, and what strategies a female could employ in choosing mates to maximize her own fitness. We address this problem via a stochastic dynamic programming model of mate choice. In the model, a female encounters males sequentially and must choose whether to mate or continue searching. As the female searches, her own condition changes stochastically, and she incurs condition-dependent search costs. The female attempts to maximize the quality of the offspring, which is a function of the female's condition at mating and the quality of the male with whom she mates. The mating strategy that maximizes the female's net expected reward is a quality threshold. We compare the optimal policy with other well-known mate choice strategies, and we use simulations to examine how well the optimal policy fares under imperfect information.

The role of sexual preferences in intrasexual female competition.

BACKGROUND: While search costs have long been understood to affect the evolution of female preference, other costs associated with mating have been the focus of much less attention. Here I consider a novel mate choice cost: female-female intrasexual competition, that is, when females compete with each other for mates. This competition results in cost to female fecundity, such as a reduction in fertility due to decreased direct benefits, sperm limitation, or time and resources spent competing for a mate. I asked if female-female competition affects the evolution of preferences, and further, if the presence of multiple, different, preferences in a population can reduce competitive costs. RESULTS: Using population genetic models of preference and trait evolution, I found that intrasexual competition leads to direct selection against female preferences, and restricts the parameter space under which preference may evolve. I also examined how multiple, different, preferences affected preference evolution with female intrasexual competition. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple preferences primarily serve to increase competitive costs and decrease the range of parameters under which preferences may evolve.

The evolution of preference strength under sensory bias: a role for indirect selection?

Evidence suggests that female preferences may sometimes arise through sensory bias, and that males may subsequently evolve traits that increase their conspicuousness to females. Here, we ask whether indirect selection, arising through genetic associations (linkage disequilibrium) during the sexual selection that sensory bias imposes, can itself influence the evolution of preference strength. Specifically, we use population genetic models to consider whether or not modifiers of preference strength can spread under different ecological conditions when female mate choice is driven by sensory bias. We focus on male traits that make a male more conspicuous in certain habitats-and thus both more visible to predators and more attractive to females-and examine modifiers of the strength of preference for conspicuous males. We first solve for the rate of spread of a modifier that strengthens preference within an environmentally uniform population; we illustrate that this spread will be extremely slow. Second, we used a series of simulations to consider the role of habitat structure and movement on the evolution of a modifier of preference strength, using male color polymorphisms as a case study. We find that in most cases, indirect selection does not allow the evolution of stronger or weaker preferences for sensory bias. Only in a "two-island" model, where there is restricted migration between different patches that favor different male phenotypes, did we find that preference strength could evolve. The role of indirect selection in the evolution of sensory bias is of particular interest because of ongoing speculation regarding the role of sensory bias in the evolution of reproductive isolation.

Can reinforcement occur with a learned trait?

We use birdsong as a case study to ask whether reinforcement can occur via the spread of a genetically determined female preference for a socially inherited (learned) male trait. We envision secondary contact between two neighboring populations with different song dialects. An individual's ability to learn song is confined by a genetic predisposition: if predispositions are strong, there will be no phenotypic overlap in song between populations, whereas weak predispositions allow phenotypic overlap, or "mixed" song. To determine if reinforcement has occurred, we consider if an allele for within-population female mating preference, based on song, can spread, and whether population specific songs can concurrently be maintained at equilibrium. We model several scenarios, including costs to mating preferences, mating preferences in hybrids, and hybrids having the ability to learn pure songs. We find that when weak predispositions are fixed within a population reinforcement based on song cannot occur. However, when some individuals have strong predispositions, restricting phenotypic overlap between populations in the trait, reinforcement is only slightly inhibited from a purely genetic model. Generalizing beyond the example of song, we conclude that socially learned signals will tend to prohibit reinforcement, but it may still occur if some individuals acquire trait phenotypes genetically.

Species' traits predict phenological responses to climate change in butterflies.

How do species' traits help identify which species will respond most strongly to future climate change? We examine the relationship between species' traits and phenology in a well-established model system for climate change, the U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS). Most resident U.K. butterfly species have significantly advanced their dates of first appearance during the past 30 years. We show that species with narrower larval diet breadth and more advanced overwintering stages have experienced relatively greater advances in their date of first appearance. In addition, species with smaller range sizes have experienced greater phenological advancement. Our results demonstrate that species' traits can be important predictors of responses to climate change, and they suggest that further investigation of the mechanisms by which these traits influence phenology may aid in understanding species' responses to current and future climate change.

Magic traits in speciation: 'magic' but not rare?

Speciation with gene flow is greatly facilitated when traits subject to divergent selection also contribute to non-random mating. Such traits have been called 'magic traits', which could be interpreted to imply that they are rare, special, or unrealistic. Here, we question this assumption by illustrating that magic traits can be produced by a variety of mechanisms, including ones in which reproductive isolation arises as an automatic by-product of adaptive divergence. We also draw upon the theoretical literature to explore whether magic traits have a unique role in speciation or can be mimicked in their effects by physically linked trait-complexes. We conclude that magic traits are more frequent than previously perceived, but further work is needed to clarify their importance.