Booster vaccination protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections in young adults during an Omicron BA.1-predominant period: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: While booster vaccinations clearly reduce the risk of severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and death, the impact of boosters on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections has not been fully characterized: Doing so requires understanding their impact on asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections that often go unreported but nevertheless play an important role in spreading SARS-CoV-2. We sought to estimate the impact of COVID-19 booster doses on SARS-CoV-2 infections in a vaccinated population of young adults during an Omicron BA.1-predominant period. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We implemented a cohort study of young adults in a college environment (Cornell University's Ithaca campus) from a period when Omicron BA.1 was the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant on campus (December 5 to December 31, 2021). Participants included 15,800 university students who completed initial vaccination series with vaccines approved by the World Health Organization for emergency use, were enrolled in mandatory at-least-weekly surveillance polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing, and had no positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test within 90 days before the start of the study period. Robust multivariable Poisson regression with the main outcome of a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test was performed to compare those who completed their initial vaccination series and a booster dose to those without a booster dose. A total of 1,926 unique SARS-CoV-2 infections were identified in the study population. Controlling for sex, student group membership, date of completion of initial vaccination series, initial vaccine type, and temporal effect during the study period, our analysis estimates that receiving a booster dose further reduces the rate of having a PCR-detected SARS-CoV-2 infection relative to an initial vaccination series by 56% (95% confidence interval [42%, 67%], P < 0.001). While most individuals had recent booster administration before or during the study period (a limitation of our study), this result is robust to the assumed delay over which a booster dose becomes effective (varied from 1 day to 14 days). The mandatory active surveillance approach used in this study, under which 86% of the person-days in the study occurred, reduces the likelihood of outcome misclassification. Key limitations of our methodology are that we did not have an a priori protocol or statistical analysis plan because the analysis was initially done for institutional research purposes, and some analysis choices were made after observing the data. CONCLUSIONS: We observed that boosters are effective, relative to completion of initial vaccination series, in further reducing the rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections in a college student population during a period when Omicron BA.1 was predominant; booster vaccinations for this age group may play an important role in reducing incidence of COVID-19.

Multi-information source Bayesian optimization of culture media for cellular agriculture.

Culture media used in industrial bioprocessing and the emerging field of cellular agriculture is difficult to optimize due to the lack of rigorous mathematical models of cell growth and culture conditions, as well as the complexity of the design space. Rapid growth assays are inaccurate yet convenient, while robust measures of cell number can be time-consuming to the point of limiting experimentation. In this study, we optimized a cell culture media with 14 components using a multi-information source Bayesian optimization algorithm that locates optimal media conditions based on an iterative refinement of an uncertainty-weighted desirability function. As a model system, we utilized murine C2C12 cells, using AlamarBlue, LIVE stain, and trypan blue exclusion cell counting assays to determine cell number. Using this experimental optimization algorithm, we were able to design media with 181% more cells than a common commercial variant with a similar economic cost, while doing so in 38% fewer experiments than an efficient design-of-experiments method. The optimal medium generalized well to long-term growth up to four passages of C2C12 cells, indicating the multi-information source assay improved measurement robustness relative to rapid growth assays alone.

Modeling for COVID-19 college reopening decisions: Cornell, a case study.

We consider epidemiological modeling for the design of COVID-19 interventions in university populations, which have seen significant outbreaks during the pandemic. A central challenge is sensitivity of predictions to input parameters coupled with uncertainty about these parameters. Nearly 2 y into the pandemic, parameter uncertainty remains because of changes in vaccination efficacy, viral variants, and mask mandates, and because universities' unique characteristics hinder translation from the general population: a high fraction of young people, who have higher rates of asymptomatic infection and social contact, as well as an enhanced ability to implement behavioral and testing interventions. We describe an epidemiological model that formed the basis for Cornell University's decision to reopen for in-person instruction in fall 2020 and supported the design of an asymptomatic screening program instituted concurrently to prevent viral spread. We demonstrate how the structure of these decisions allowed risk to be minimized despite parameter uncertainty leading to an inability to make accurate point estimates and how this generalizes to other university settings. We find that once-per-week asymptomatic screening of vaccinated undergraduate students provides substantial value against the Delta variant, even if all students are vaccinated, and that more targeted testing of the most social vaccinated students provides further value.

Tuning Materials-Binding Peptide Sequences toward Gold- and Silver-Binding Selectivity with Bayesian Optimization.

Peptide sequence engineering can potentially deliver materials-selective binding capabilities, which would be highly attractive in numerous biotic and abiotic nanomaterials applications. However, the number of known materials-selective peptide sequences is small, and identification of new sequences is laborious and haphazard. Previous attempts have sought to use machine learning and other informatics approaches that rely on existing data sets to accelerate the discovery of materials-selective peptides, but too few materials-selective sequences are known to enable reliable prediction. Moreover, this knowledge base is expensive to expand. Here, we combine a comprehensive and integrated experimental and modeling effort and introduce a Bayesian Effective Search for Optimal Sequences (BESOS) approach to address this challenge. Through this combined approach, we significantly expand the data set of Au-selective peptide sequences and identify an additional Ag-selective peptide sequence. Analysis of the binding motifs for the Ag-binders offers a roadmap for future prediction with machine learning, which should guide identification of further Ag-selective sequences. These discoveries will enable wider and more versatile integration of Ag nanoparticles in biological platforms.

Discovering de novo peptide substrates for enzymes using machine learning.

The discovery of peptide substrates for enzymes with exclusive, selective activities is a central goal in chemical biology. In this paper, we develop a hybrid computational and biochemical method to rapidly optimize peptides for specific, orthogonal biochemical functions. The method is an iterative machine learning process by which experimental data is deposited into a mathematical algorithm that selects potential peptide substrates to be tested experimentally. Once tested, the algorithm uses the experimental data to refine future selections. This process is repeated until a suitable set of de novo peptide substrates are discovered. We employed this technology to discover orthogonal peptide substrates for 4'-phosphopantetheinyl transferase, an enzyme class that covalently modifies proteins. In this manner, we have demonstrated that machine learning can be leveraged to guide peptide optimization for specific biochemical functions not immediately accessible by biological screening techniques, such as phage display and random mutagenesis.

Distance Dependent Infinite Latent Feature Models.

Latent feature models are widely used to decompose data into a small number of components. Bayesian nonparametric variants of these models, which use the Indian buffet process (IBP) as a prior over latent features, allow the number of features to be determined from the data. We present a generalization of the IBP, the distance dependent Indian buffet process (dd-IBP), for modeling non-exchangeable data. It relies on distances defined between data points, biasing nearby data to share more features. The choice of distance measure allows for many kinds of dependencies, including temporal and spatial. Further, the original IBP is a special case of the dd-IBP. We develop the dd-IBP and theoretically characterize its feature-sharing properties. We derive a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler for a linear Gaussian model with a dd-IBP prior and study its performance on real-world non-exchangeable data.

ALE: a generic assembly likelihood evaluation framework for assessing the accuracy of genome and metagenome assemblies.

MOTIVATION: Researchers need general purpose methods for objectively evaluating the accuracy of single and metagenome assemblies and for automatically detecting any errors they may contain. Current methods do not fully meet this need because they require a reference, only consider one of the many aspects of assembly quality or lack statistical justification, and none are designed to evaluate metagenome assemblies. RESULTS: In this article, we present an Assembly Likelihood Evaluation (ALE) framework that overcomes these limitations, systematically evaluating the accuracy of an assembly in a reference-independent manner using rigorous statistical methods. This framework is comprehensive, and integrates read quality, mate pair orientation and insert length (for paired-end reads), sequencing coverage, read alignment and k-mer frequency. ALE pinpoints synthetic errors in both single and metagenomic assemblies, including single-base errors, insertions/deletions, genome rearrangements and chimeric assemblies presented in metagenomes. At the genome level with real-world data, ALE identifies three large misassemblies from the Spirochaeta smaragdinae finished genome, which were all independently validated by Pacific Biosciences sequencing. At the single-base level with Illumina data, ALE recovers 215 of 222 (97%) single nucleotide variants in a training set from a GC-rich Rhodobacter sphaeroides genome. Using real Pacific Biosciences data, ALE identifies 12 of 12 synthetic errors in a Lambda Phage genome, surpassing even Pacific Biosciences' own variant caller, EviCons. In summary, the ALE framework provides a comprehensive, reference-independent and statistically rigorous measure of single genome and metagenome assembly accuracy, which can be used to identify misassemblies or to optimize the assembly process. AVAILABILITY: ALE is released as open source software under the UoI/NCSA license at http://www.alescore.org. It is implemented in C and Python.

Risk factors for early failure after peripheral endovascular intervention: application of a reliability engineering approach.

BACKGROUND: We apply an innovative and novel analytic approach, based on reliability engineering (RE) principles frequently used to characterize the behavior of manufactured products, to examine outcomes after peripheral endovascular intervention. We hypothesized that this would allow for improved prediction of outcome after peripheral endovascular intervention, specifically with regard to identification of risk factors for early failure. METHODS: Patients undergoing infrainguinal endovascular intervention for chronic lower-extremity ischemia from 2005 to 2010 were identified in a prospectively maintained database. The primary outcome of failure was defined as patency loss detected by duplex ultrasonography, with or without clinical failure. Analysis included univariate and multivariate Cox regression models, as well as RE-based analysis including product life-cycle models and Weibull failure plots. Early failures were distinguished using the RE principle of "basic rating life," and multivariate models identified independent risk factors for early failure. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2010, 434 primary endovascular peripheral interventions were performed for claudication (51.8%), rest pain (16.8%), or tissue loss (31.3%). Fifty-five percent of patients were aged ≥75 years; 57% were men. Failure was noted after 159 (36.6%) interventions during a mean follow-up of 18 months (range, 0-71 months). Using multivariate (Cox) regression analysis, rest pain and tissue loss were independent predictors of patency loss, with hazard ratios of 2.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.6-4.1; P < 0.001) and 3.2 (95% confidence interval, 2.0-5.2, P < 0.001), respectively. The distribution of failure times for both claudication and critical limb ischemia fit distinct Weibull plots, with different characteristics: interventions for claudication demonstrated an increasing failure rate (ß = 1.22, θ = 13.46, mean time to failure = 12.603 months, index of fit = 0.99037, R(2) = 0.98084), whereas interventions for critical limb ischemia demonstrated a decreasing failure rate, suggesting the predominance of early failures (ß = 0.7395, θ = 6.8, mean time to failure = 8.2, index of fit = 0.99391, R(2) = 0.98786). By 3.1 months, 10% of interventions failed. This point (90% reliability) was identified as the basic rating life. Using multivariate analysis of failure data, independent predictors of early failure (before 3.1 months) included tissue loss, long lesion length, chronic total occlusions, heart failure, and end-stage renal disease. CONCLUSIONS: Application of a RE framework to the assessment of clinical outcomes after peripheral interventions is feasible, and potentially more informative than traditional techniques. Conceptualization of interventions as "products" permits application of product life-cycle models that allow for empiric definition of "early failure" may facilitate comparative effectiveness analysis and enable the development of individualized surveillance programs after endovascular interventions.