Leveraging research infrastructure co-location to evaluate constraints on terrestrial carbon cycling in northern European forests.

Integrated long-term, in-situ observations are needed to document ongoing environmental change, to "ground-truth" remote sensing and model outputs and to predict future Earth system behaviour. The scientific and societal value of in-situ observations increases with site representativeness, temporal duration, number of parameters measured and comparability within and across sites. Research Infrastructures (RIs) can support harmonised, cross-site data collection, curation and publication. Integrating RI networks through site co-location and standardised observation methods can help answers three questions about the terrestrial carbon sink: (i) What are present and future carbon sequestration rates in northern European forests? (ii) How are these rates controlled? (iii) Why do the observed patterns exist? Here, we present a conceptual model for RI co-location and highlight potential insights into the terrestrial carbon sink achievable when long-term in-situ Earth observation sites participate in multiple RI networks (e.g., ICOS and eLTER). Finally, we offer recommendations to promote RI co-location.

Microplastics in terrestrial ecosystems: Moving beyond the state of the art to minimize the risk of ecological surprise.

Microplastic (plastic particles measuring <5mm) pollution is ubiquitous. Unlike in other well-studied ecosystems, for example, marine and freshwater environments, microplastics in terrestrial systems are relatively understudied. Their potential impacts on terrestrial environments, in particular the risk of causing ecological surprise, must be better understood and quantified. Ecological surprise occurs when ecosystem behavior deviates radically from expectations and generally has negative consequences for ecosystem services. The properties and behavior of microplastics within terrestrial environments may increase their likelihood of causing ecological surprises as they (a) are highly persistent global pollutants that will last for centuries, (b) can interact with the abiotic environment in a complex manner, (c) can impact terrestrial organisms directly or indirectly and (d) interact with other contaminants and can facilitate their transport. Here, we compiled findings of previous research on microplastics in terrestrial environments. We systematically focused on studies addressing different facets of microplastics related to their distribution, dispersion, impact on soil characteristics and functions, levels of biological organization of tested terrestrial biota (single species vs. assemblages), scale of experimental study and corresponding ecotoxicological effects. Our systematic assessment of previous microplastic research revealed that most studies have been conducted on single species under laboratory conditions with short-term exposures; few studies were conducted under more realistic long-term field conditions and/or with multi-species assemblages. Studies targeting multi-species assemblages primarily considered soil bacterial communities and showed that microplastics can alter essential nutrient cycling functions. More ecologically meaningful studies of terrestrial microplastics encompassing multi-species assemblages, critical ecological processes (e.g., biogeochemical cycles and pollination) and interactions with other anthropogenic stressors must be conducted. Addressing these knowledge gaps will provide a better understanding of microplastics as emerging global stressors and should lower the risk of ecological surprise in terrestrial ecosystems.

Variability in fluvial suspended and streambed sediment phosphorus fractions among small agricultural streams.

Agriculture is a major source of sediment and particulate phosphorus (P) inputs to freshwaters. Distinguishing between P fractions in sediment can aid in understanding its eutrophication risk. Although streams and rivers are important parts of the P cycle in agricultural catchments, streambed sediment and especially fluvial suspended sediment (FSS) and its P fractions are less studied. To address this knowledge gap, seasonal variations in FSS P fractions and their relation to water quality and streambed sediment were examined in three Swedish agricultural headwater catchments over 2 yr. Sequential fractionation was used to characterize P fractions in both streambed sediment and FSS. All catchments had similar annual P losses (0.4-0.8 kg ha-1 ), suspended solids (124-183 mg L-1 ), and FSS total P concentrations (1.15-1.19 mg g-1 ). However, distribution of P fractions and the dominant P fractions in FSS differed among catchments (p < .05), which was most likely dependent on differences in catchment geology, clay content, external P sources, and flow conditions. The most prominent seasonal pattern in all catchments was found for iron-bound P, with high concentrations during low summer flows and low concentrations during winter high flows. Streambed sediment P fractions were in the same concentration ranges as in FSS, and the distribution of the fractions differed between catchments. This study highlights the need to quantify P fractions, not just total P in FSS, to obtain a more complete understanding of the eutrophication risk posed by agricultural sediment losses.

Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways: Future narratives for assessment of water-related ecosystem services in agricultural and forest management.

Further development of the bioeconomy, the substitution of bioresources for fossil resources, will lead to an increased pressure on land and water resources in both agriculture and forestry. It is important to study whether resultant changes in land management may in turn lead to impairment of water services. This paper describes the Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways (NBPs), a set of regional sectoral storylines nested within the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework developed to provide the BIOWATER research program with land management scenarios for projecting future developments to explore possible conflicts between land management changes and the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The NBPs are a set of narrative storylines capturing a range of plausible future trajectories for the Nordic bioeconomy until 2050 and that are fit for use within hydrological catchment modelling, ecosystem service studies and stakeholder dialogue about possible changes in agricultural and forestry management practices.

Drivers of long-term invertebrate community stability in changing Swedish lakes.

Research on ecosystem stability has had a strong focus on local systems. However, environmental change often occurs slowly at broad spatial scales, which requires regional-level assessments of long-term stability. In this study, we assess the stability of macroinvertebrate communities across 105 lakes in the Swedish "lakescape." Using a hierarchical mixed-model approach, we first evaluate the environmental pressures affecting invertebrate communities in two ecoregions (north, south) using a 23 year time series (1995-2017) and then examine how a set of environmental and physical variables affect the stability of these communities. Results show that lake latitude, size, total phosphorus and alkalinity affect community composition in northern and southern lakes. We find that lake stability is affected by species richness and lake size in both ecoregions and alkalinity and total phosphorus in northern lakes. There is large heterogeneity in the patterns of community stability of individual lakes, but relationships between that stability and environmental drivers begin to emerge when the lakescape, composed of many discrete lakes, is the focal unit of study. The results of this study highlight that broad-scale comparisons in combination with long time series are essential to understand the effects of environmental change on the stability of lake communities in space and time.

Particulate phosphorus and suspended solids losses from small agricultural catchments: Links to stream and catchment characteristics.

Excessive phosphorus (P) inputs from agriculture are well established as a contributor to freshwater eutrophication. Decreasing these inputs is an important step in improving the ecological state of impaired waters. Particulate P (PP) is a significant contributor to diffuse P inputs in agricultural catchments. Identifying the main correlates for PP losses is an important step in reducing these inputs. However, there are few studies of long term temporal and spatial dynamics of PP in agricultural streams. Here, we investigate the relative importance of hydrology, catchment characteristics and geochemistry on PP concentrations and fluxes in agricultural headwaters. We evaluate long-term monitoring data from eleven small (<35 km2) Swedish catchments with at least seven years of measured flow and flow proportional water quality sampling. Using parametric and non-parametric regression together with principal components analysis (PCA), we identify in-stream and catchment variables relevant for predicting PP concentrations, e.g., suspended solids concentrations (SS), soil texture and average catchment soil P content, measured as ammonium lactate/acetic acid extractable P (P-AL). We show that PP is primarily correlated to SS concentrations, which in turn are correlated to average clay content and land use. However, the SS:PP relationships differ between catchments. No correlation between PP concentrations in the stream and soil P content was found. An increasing clay content decreases the slope of the relationship between SS and PP, i.e., in catchments with higher clay content, less PP is transported per unit SS. The PP/SS ratio increased significantly (p < 0.05) over time in four catchments, despite limited changes in SS or PP concentrations. Our study highlights the importance of long time series since the enrichment of P on SS in the streams is only detected when using long term monitoring data.

An evaluation of high frequency turbidity as a proxy for riverine total phosphorus concentrations.

Surface water eutrophication resulting from excessive phosphorus (P) inputs is one of today's most challenging environmental issues. Riverine total phosphorus (TP) concentrations have high temporal variability, which complicates flux estimation. We evaluated the usefulness of high frequency in-situ turbidity measurements as a proxy for TP in Sävjaån, a river draining a mixed land use catchment (722 km2) in central Sweden. Turbidity was monitored every 10th-15th minute during 6 consecutive years (2012-2017). Linear regression showed a good relationship between high frequency turbidity and TP (r2 = 0.64) and could hence be used for comparison of flux estimation methods. Predictive power of the turbidity-TP relationship was not improved by adding seasons, hydrograph rising/falling limb or high/low stream discharge to the model which argues for a single transfer function relating turbidity and TP. Both TP and turbidity were log-normally distributed. However, flux estimates were sensitive to data transformation; predicted TP concentrations and fluxes based on log-transformed data were biased towards lower concentrations and fluxes compared to non-transformed data. In five of six years grab sample and high frequency estimated TP fluxes were similar (grab sample estimates -10% to +13% P transport compared to high frequency flux estimates). The exception was in 2013, when a 50-year spring flood occurred, and the grab sample estimated flux was 56% larger than that estimated from high frequency data. Thus, the flux comparisons were mostly affected by stream discharge, which underlines the importance of capturing high discharge episodes with, e.g. in situ sensors. While uncertainties regarding the use of turbidity as a proxy for TP remain, it is clear that credible water chemistry data can be obtained with current high frequency sensors. We conclude that high frequency data can be used to better understand catchment response to external pressures and gain insights into water quality that will be missed with grab sampling.

Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland.

Natural organic matter poses an increasing challenge to water managers because of its potential adverse impacts on water treatment and distribution, and subsequently human health. Projections were made of impacts of climate change on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the primarily agricultural Boyne catchment which is used as a potable water supply in Ireland. The results indicated that excluding a potential rise in extreme precipitation, future projected loads are not dissimilar to those observed under current conditions. This is because projected increases in DOC concentrations are offset by corresponding decreases in precipitation and hence river flow. However, the results presented assume no changes in land use and highlight the predicted increase in DOC loads from abstracted waters at water treatment plants.

Water quality assessment and catchment-scale nutrient flux modeling in the Ramganga River Basin in north India: An application of INCA model.

The present study analyzes the water quality characteristics of the Ramganga (a major tributary of the Ganga river) using long-term (1991-2009) monthly data and applies the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) and Phosphorus (INCA-P) to the catchment. The models were calibrated and validated using discharge (1993-2011), phosphate (1993-2010) and nitrate (2007-2010) concentrations. The model results were assessed based on Pearson's correlation, Nash-Sutcliffe and Percentage bias statistics along with a visual inspection of the outputs. The seasonal variation study shows high nutrient concentrations in the pre-monsoon season compared to the other seasons. High nutrient concentrations in the low flows period pose a serious threat to aquatic life of the river although the concentrations are lowered during high flows because of the dilution effect. The hydrological model is satisfactorily calibrated with R2 and NS values ranging between 0.6-0.8 and 0.4-0.8, respectively. INCA-N and INCA-P successfully capture the seasonal trend of nutrient concentrations with R2>0.5 and PBIAS within ±17% for the monthly averages. Although, high concentrations are detected in the low flows period, around 50% of the nutrient load is transported by the monsoonal high flows. The downstream catchments are characterized by high nutrient transport through high flows where additional nutrient supply from industries and agricultural practices also prevail. The seasonal nitrate (R2: 0.88-0.94) and phosphate (R2: 0.62-0.95) loads in the catchment are calculated using model results and ratio estimator load calculation technique. On average, around 548tonnes of phosphorus (as phosphate) and 77,051tonnes of nitrogen (as nitrate) are estimated to be exported annually from the Ramganga River to the Ganga. Overall, the model has been able to successfully reproduce the catchment dynamics in terms of seasonal variation and broad-scale spatial variability of nutrient fluxes in the Ramganga catchment.

Persistent and widespread long-term phosphorus declines in Boreal lakes in Sweden.

We present an analysis of long-term (1988-2013; 26years) total phosphorus (TP) concentration trends in 81 Swedish boreal lakes subject to minimal anthropogenic disturbance. Near universal increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and a widespread but hitherto unexplained decline in TP were observed. Over 50% of the lakes (n=42) had significant declining TP trends over the past quarter century (Sen's slope=2.5%y-1). These declines were linked to catchment processes related to changes in climate, recovery from acidification, and catchment soil properties, but were unrelated to trends in P deposition. Increasing DOC concentrations appear to be masking in-lake TP declines. When the effect of increasing DOC was removed, the small number of positive TP trends (N=5) turned negative and the average decline in TP increased to 3.9%y-1. The greatest relative TP declines occurred in already nutrient poor, oligotrophic systems and TP concentrations have reached the analytical detection limit (1µgL-1) in some lakes. In addition, ongoing oligotrophication may be exacerbated by increased reliance on renewable energy from forest biomass and hydropower. It is a cause of significant concern that potential impairments to lake ecosystem functioning associated with oligotrophication are not well handled by a management paradigm focused exclusively on the negative consequences of increasing phosphorus concentrations.

Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy.

There is a pressing need to apply stability and resilience theory to environmental management to restore degraded ecosystems effectively and to mitigate the effects of impending environmental change. Lakes represent excellent model case studies in this respect and have been used widely to demonstrate theories of ecological stability and resilience that are needed to underpin preventative management approaches. However, we argue that this approach is not yet fully developed because the pursuit of empirical evidence to underpin such theoretically grounded management continues in the absence of an objective probability framework. This has blurred the lines between intuitive logic (based on the elementary principles of probability) and extensional logic (based on assumption and belief) in this field.

Consequences of intensive forest harvesting on the recovery of Swedish lakes from acidification and on critical load exceedances.

Across much of the northern hemisphere, lakes are at risk of re-acidification due to incomplete recovery from historical acidification and pressures associated with more intensive forest biomass harvesting. Critical load (CL) calculations aimed at estimating the amount of pollutants an ecosystem can receive without suffering adverse consequences are dependent on these factors. Here, we present a modelling study of the potential effects of intensified forest harvesting on re-acidification of a set of 3239 Swedish lakes based on scenarios with varying intensities of forest biomass harvest and acid deposition. There is some evidence that forestry would have caused a certain level of acidification even if deposition remained at 1860 levels. We show that all plausible harvest scenarios delay recovery due to increased rates of base cation removal. Scenario results were used to estimate critical loads for the entire population of lakes in Sweden. The forestry intensity included in critical load calculations is a political decision. After scaling calculations to the national level, it was apparent that a high but plausible forest harvest intensity would lead to an increase in the area of CL exceedances and that even after significant reductions in forest harvest intensity, there would still be areas with CL exceedances. Our results show that forest harvest intensity and regional environmental change must be carefully considered in future CL calculations.

A theoretical assessment of microplastic transport in river catchments and their retention by soils and river sediments.

The presence of microplastics (MPs) in the environment is a problem of growing concern. While research has focused on MP occurrence and impacts in the marine environment, very little is known about their release on land, storage in soils and sediments and transport by run-off and rivers. This study describes a first theoretical assessment of these processes. A mathematical model of catchment hydrology, soil erosion and sediment budgets was upgraded to enable description of MP fate. The Thames River in the UK was used as a case study. A general lack of data on MP emissions to soils and rivers and the mass of MPs in agricultural soils, limits the present work to serve as a purely theoretical, nevertheless rigorous, assessment that can be used to guide future monitoring and impact evaluations. The fundamental assumption on which modelling is based is that the same physical controls on soil erosion and natural sediment transport (for which model calibration and validation are possible), also control MP transport and storage. Depending on sub-catchment soil characteristics and precipitation patterns, approximately 16-38% of the heavier-than-water MPs hypothetically added to soils (e.g. through routine applications of sewage sludge) are predicted to be stored locally. In the stream, MPs < 0.2 mm are generally not retained, regardless of their density. Larger MPs with densities marginally higher than water can instead be retained in the sediment. It is, however, anticipated that high flow periods can remobilize this pool. Sediments of river sections experiencing low stream power are likely hotspots for deposition of MPs. Exposure and impact assessments should prioritize these environments.

Persistent Organic Pollutants in Streamwater: Influence of Hydrological Conditions and Landscape Type.

Concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in streamwater were measured in a remote catchment in northern Sweden and downstream to the Baltic Sea. Sampling took place at seven sites during two years and under different hydrological conditions: during the snow-free, snow-covered, and spring-flood seasons. Concentrations varied substantially between seasons and were up to 20 times higher during the spring flood compared to the preceding snow-covered period. The increase in concentrations with runoff was due to higher levels of particle-associated contaminants, while the dissolved concentrations remained stable. Particulate-contaminant concentrations were positively correlated primarily to suspended particulate matter (SPM) at sites in areas with a high land-cover fraction of sorted sediment. When upstream sampling locations were compared, a mire-dominated stream had higher concentrations and a lower retention of atmospherically deposited contaminants than a forest stream of the same catchment size. Contaminant concentrations (normalized to volume) did not increase consistently downstream despite the presence of several point sources. However, when normalized to the amount of SPM, concentrations were on average >20 times higher at the outlet in the Baltic Sea compared to the outlet from the remote catchment without point sources.

Boreal forest riparian zones regulate stream sulfate and dissolved organic carbon.

In boreal forest catchments, solute transfer to streams is controlled by hydrological and biogeochemical processes occurring in the riparian zone (RZ). However, RZs are spatially heterogeneous and information about solute chemistry is typically limited. This is problematic when making inferences about stream chemistry. Hypothetically, the strength of links between riparian and stream chemistry is time-scale dependent. Using a ten-year (2003-2012) dataset from a northern Swedish catchment, we evaluated the suitability of RZ data to infer stream dynamics at different time scales. We focus on the role of the RZ versus upslope soils in controlling sulfate (SO4(2)(-)) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). A priori, declines in acid deposition and redox-mediated SO4(2)(-) pulses control sulfur (S) fluxes and pool dynamics, which in turn affect dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We found that the catchment is currently a net source of S, presumably due to release of the S pool accumulated during the acidification period. In both, RZ and stream, SO4(2-) concentrations are declining over time, whereas DOC is increasing. No temporal trends in SO4(2-) and DOC were observed in upslope mineral soils. SO4(2-) explained the variation of DOC in stream and RZ, but not in upslope mineral soil. Moreover, as SO4(2-) decreased with time, temporal variability of DOC increased. These observations indicate that: (1) SO4(2-) is still an important driver of DOC trends in boreal catchments and (2) RZ processes control stream SO4(2-) and subsequently DOC independently of upslope soils. These phenomena are likely occurring in many regions recovering from acidification. Because water flows through a heterogeneous mosaic of RZs before entering the stream, upscaling information from limited RZ data to the catchment level is problematic at short-time scales. However, for long-term trends and annual dynamics, the same data can provide reasonable representations of riparian processes and support meaningful inferences about stream chemistry.

Conceptualizing and communicating management effects on forest water quality.

We present a framework for evaluating and communicating effects of human activity on water quality in managed forests. The framework is based on the following processes: atmospheric deposition, weathering, accumulation, recirculation and flux. Impairments to water quality are characterized in terms of their extent, longevity and frequency. Impacts are communicated using a "traffic lights" metaphor for characterizing severity of water quality impairments arising from forestry and other anthropogenic pressures. The most serious impairments to water quality in managed boreal forests include (i) forestry activities causing excessive sediment mobilization and extirpation of aquatic species and (ii) other anthropogenic pressures caused by long-range transport of mercury and acidifying pollutants. The framework and tool presented here can help evaluate, summarize and communicate the most important issues in circumstances where land management and other anthropogenic pressures combine to impair water quality and may also assist in implementing the "polluter pays" principle.

Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in river and ground/drinking water of the Ganges River basin: Emissions and implications for human exposure.

Many perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are ubiquitous environmental contaminants. They have been widely used in production processes and daily-use products or may result from degradation of precursor compounds in products or the environment. India, with its developing industrialization and population moving from traditional to contemporary lifestyles, represents an interesting case study to investigate PFAS emission and exposure along steep environmental and socioeconomic gradients. This study assesses PFAS concentrations in river and groundwater (used in this region as drinking water) from several locations along the Ganges River and estimates direct emissions, specifically for PFOS and PFOA. 15 PFAS were frequently detected in the river with the highest concentrations observed for PFHxA (0.4-4.7 ng L(-1)) and PFBS (

Patterns and predictability in the intra-annual organic carbon variability across the boreal and hemiboreal landscape.

Factors affecting total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in 215 watercourses across Sweden were investigated using parameter parsimonious regression approaches to explain spatial and temporal variabilities of the TOC water quality responses. We systematically quantified the effects of discharge, seasonality, and long-term trend as factors controlling intra-annual (among year) and inter-annual (within year) variabilities of TOC by evaluating the spatial variability in model coefficients and catchment characteristics (e.g. land cover, retention time, soil type). Catchment area (0.18-47,000 km2) and land cover types (forests, agriculture and alpine terrain) are typical for the boreal and hemiboreal zones across Fennoscandia. Watercourses had at least 6 years of monthly water quality observations between 1990 and 2010. Statistically significant models (p<0.05) describing variation of TOC in streamflow were identified in 209 of 215 watercourses with a mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index of 0.44. Increasing long-term trends were observed in 149 (70%) of the watercourses, and intra-annual variation in TOC far exceeded inter-annual variation. The average influences of the discharge and seasonality terms on intra-annual variations in daily TOC concentration were 1.4 and 1.3 mg l(-1) (13 and 12% of the mean annual TOC), respectively. The average increase in TOC was 0.17 mg l(-1)year(-1) (1.6% year(-1)). Multivariate regression with over 90 different catchment characteristics explained 21% of the spatial variation in the linear trend coefficient, less than 20% of the variation in the discharge coefficient and 73% of the spatial variation in mean TOC. Specific discharge, water residence time, the variance of daily precipitation, and lake area, explained 45% of the spatial variation in the amplitude of the TOC seasonality. Because the main drivers of temporal variability in TOC are seasonality and discharge, first-order estimates of the influences of climatic variability and change on TOC concentration should be predictable if the studied catchments continue to respond similarly.