Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability of the Dominant Tree Species in Greece.

Climate change is affecting species distribution and ecosystem form and function. Forests provide a range of ecosystem services, and understanding their vulnerability to climate change is important for designing effective adaptation strategies. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) has been extensively used to derive habitat suitability maps under current conditions and project species distribution shifts under climate change. In this study, we model the current and future habitat suitability of the dominant tree species in Greece (Abies cephalonica, Abies borisii-regis, Pinus brutia, Pinus halepensis, Pinus nigra, Quercus ilex, Quercus pubescens, Quercus frainetto and Fagus sylvatica), based on species-specific presence data from the EU-Forest database, enhanced with data from Greece that is currently under-represented in terms of tree species occurrence points. By including these additional presence data, areas with relatively drier conditions for some of the study species were included in the SDM development, yielding a potentially lower vulnerability under climate change conditions. SDMs were developed for each taxon using climate and soil data at a resolution of ~1 km2. Model performance was assessed under current conditions and was found to adequately simulate potential distributions. Subsequently, the models were used to project the potential distribution of each species under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time periods. Under climate change scenarios, a reduction in habitat-suitable areas was predicted for most study species, with higher elevation taxa experiencing more pronounced potential habitat shrinkages. An exception was the endemic A. cephalonica and its sister species A. borisii-regis, which, although currently found at mid and high elevations, seem able to maintain their potential distribution under most climate change scenarios. Our findings suggest that climate change could significantly affect the distribution and dynamics of forest ecosystems in Greece, with important ecological, economic and social implications, and thus adequate mitigation measures should be implemented.

Photosynthetic and defensive responses of two Mediterranean oaks to insect leaf herbivory.

Insect herbivory is a dominant interaction across virtually all ecosystems globally and has dramatic effects on plant function such as reduced photosynthesis activity and increased levels of defenses. However, most previous work assessing the link between insect herbivory, photosynthesis and plant defenses has been performed on cultivated model plant species, neglecting a full understanding of patterns in natural systems. In this study, we performed a field experiment to investigate the effects of herbivory by a generalist foliar feeding insect (Lymantria dispar) and leaf mechanical damage on multiple leaf traits associated with defense against herbivory and photosynthesis activity on two sympatric oak species with contrasting leaf habit (the evergreen Quercus coccifera L. and the deciduous Quercus pubescens Willd). Our results showed that, although herbivory treatments and oak species did not strongly affect photosynthesis and dark respiration, these two factors exerted interactive effects. Insect herbivory and mechanical damage (vs control) decreased photosynthesis activity for Q. coccifera but not for Q. pubescens. Insect herbivory and mechanical damage tended to increase chemical (increased flavonoid and lignin concentration) defenses, but these effects were stronger for Q. pubescens. Overall, this study shows that two congeneric oak species with contrasting leaf habit differ in their photosynthetic and defensive responses to insect herbivory. While the evergreen oak species followed a more conservative strategy (reduced photosynthesis and higher physical defenses), the deciduous oak species followed a more acquisitive strategy (maintained photosynthesis and higher chemical defenses).

How Effective Are the Protected Areas of the Natura 2000 Network in Halting Biological Invasions? A Case Study in Greece.

Invasive alien plant species represent an important threat to various protected areas of the world, and this threat expected to be further enhanced due to climate change. This is also the case for the most important network of protected areas in Europe, the Natura 2000 network. In the current study we evaluated the distribution pattern of alien plant taxa across selected continental and insular Natura 2000 sites in Greece and their potential spread 15 years since first being recorded in the field. A total of seventy-three naturalized plant taxa were recorded in the 159 sites under study. At the site level and regardless of the habitat group, the ratio of invaded areas increased between the two monitoring campaigns. An increase in the ratio of invaded plots was also detected for all habitat groups, except for grassland and riparian-wetland habitats. Precipitation during the dry quarter of the year was the factor that mainly controlled the occurrence and spread of alien plant taxa regardless of the site and habitat group. It is reasonable to say that the characterization of an area as protected may not be sufficient without having implemented the proper practices for halting biological invasions.

Adaptive flammability syndromes in thermo-Mediterranean vegetation, captured by alternative resource-use strategies.

Fire affects and is affected by leaf functional traits indicative of resource allocation trade-offs. Global change drivers constrain both the resource-use strategies and flammability of coexisting species. However, small attention has been given in identifying links among flammability and plant economics. Ambiguity comes from the fact that flammability is a multidimensional trait. Different flammability attributes (i.e. ignitibility, sustainability, combustibility and consumability) have been used to classify species, but no widely-accepted relationships exist between attributes. We hypothesised that flammability is a spectrum (defined by its four attributes) and the alternative flammability syndromes of coexisting species can be captured by their resource-use strategies. Furthermore, we argue that flammability syndromes are adaptive strategies that ensure persistence in the post-fire community. We conducted a large-scale study to estimate all flammability attributes on leaves from nine, dominant, thermo-Mediterranean species with alternative resource-use and fire-response strategies across a wide environmental and geographic gradient. We assessed the interdependence among attributes, and their variation across ecological scales (genus, species, individual, site and region). Furthermore, we collected 10 leaf functional traits, conducted a soil study and extracted long-term climatological data to quantify their effect on flammability attributes. We found that leaf flammability in thermo-Mediterranean vegetation is a continuous two-dimensional spectrum. The first dimension, driven by leaf shape and size, represents heat release rate (combustibility vs. sustainability), while the second, controlled by leaf economics, presents ignition delay and total heat release (i.e. consumability). Alternative flammability syndromes can increase fitness in fire-prone communities by offering qualitative differences in survival or reproduction. Trade-offs and constraints that control the distribution of resource-use strategies across environmental gradients appeared to drive leaf flammability syndromes as well. Tying the flammability spectrum with resource allocation trade-offs on a global scale can help us predict future ecosystem properties and fire regimes and illustrate evolutionary constraints on flammability.

Functional Trait Variation Among and Within Species and Plant Functional Types in Mountainous Mediterranean Forests.

Plant structural and biochemical traits are frequently used to characterise the life history of plants. Although some common patterns of trait covariation have been identified, recent studies suggest these patterns of covariation may differ with growing location and/or plant functional type (PFT). Mediterranean forest tree/shrub species are often divided into three PFTs based on their leaf habit and form, being classified as either needleleaf evergreen (Ne), broadleaf evergreen (Be), or broadleaf deciduous (Bd). Working across 61 mountainous Mediterranean forest sites of contrasting climate and soil type, we sampled and analysed 626 individuals in order to evaluate differences in key foliage trait covariation as modulated by growing conditions both within and between the Ne, Be, and Bd functional types. We found significant differences between PFTs for most traits. When considered across PFTs and by ignoring intraspecific variation, three independent functional dimensions supporting the Leaf-Height-Seed framework were identified. Some traits illustrated a common scaling relationship across and within PFTs, but others scaled differently when considered across PFTs or even within PFTs. For most traits much of the observed variation was attributable to PFT identity and not to growing location, although for some traits there was a strong environmental component and considerable intraspecific and residual variation. Nevertheless, environmental conditions as related to water availability during the dry season and to a smaller extend to soil nutrient status and soil texture, clearly influenced trait values. When compared across species, about half of the trait-environment relationships were species-specific. Our study highlights the importance of the ecological scale within which trait covariation is considered and suggests that at regional to local scales, common trait-by-trait scaling relationships should be treated with caution. PFT definitions by themselves can potentially be an important predictor variable when inferring one trait from another. These findings have important implications for local scale dynamic vegetation models.

An integrated phenotypic trait-network in thermo-Mediterranean vegetation describing alternative, coexisting resource-use strategies.

Vascular plants have been found to align along globally-recognised resource-allocation trade-offs among specific functional traits. Genetic constrains and environmental pressures limit the spectrum of viable resource-use strategies employed by plant species. While conspecific plants have often been described as identical, intraspecific variation facilitates species coexistence and evolutionary potential. This study attempts to link an individual's phenotype to its environmental tolerance and ecosystem function. We hypothesised that: (1) seasonal variation in water availability has selected for tight phenotypic integration patterns that shape Mediterranean vegetation; however, (2) coexisting species employ alternative resource-use strategies to avoid competitive exclusion; specifically (3) species with smaller climatic niches (i.e. potential distributions) display higher functional diversity. We examined the interdependence among and the sources of variation within 11 functional traits, reflecting whole-plant economics (e.g. construction costs, hydraulics, defences, water storage capacity), from nine dominant, thermo-Mediterranean species measured across a wide environmental and geographic gradient. Furthermore, we delineated the phenotypic and climatic hypervolumes of each studied species to test for climatic niche overlap and functional distinctiveness. By adopting this multidimensional trait-based approach we detected fundamental phenotypic integration patterns that define thermo-Mediterranean species regardless of life history strategy. The studied traits emerged intercorrelated shaping a resource-allocation spectrum. Significant intraspecific variability in most measured traits allowed for functional distinctiveness among the measured species. Higher functional diversity was observed in species restricted within narrower climatic niches. Our results support our initial hypotheses. The studied functional traits collectively formed an integrated space of viable phenotypic expressions; however, phenotypic plasticity enables functionally distinctive species to succeed complementary in a given set of environmental conditions. Functional variability among coexisting individuals defined species' climatic niches within the trait-spectrum permitted by Mediterranean conditions. Ultimately, a species establishment in a locality depends on the extent that it can shift its trait values.

Tropical forest light regimes in a human-modified landscape.

Light is the key energy input for all vegetated systems. Forest light regimes are complex, with the vertical pattern of light within canopies influenced by forest structure. Human disturbances in tropical forests impact forest structure and hence may influence the light environment and thus competitiveness of different trees. In this study, we measured vertical diffuse light profiles along a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance, sampling intact, logged, secondary, and fragmented sites in the biodiversity hot spot of the Atlantic forest, southeast Brazil, using photosynthetically active radiation sensors and a novel approach with estimations of vertical light profiles from hemispherical photographs. Our results show clear differences in vertical light profiles with disturbance: Fragmented forests are characterized by rapid light extinction within their low canopies, while the profiles in logged forests show high heterogeneity and high light in the mid-canopy despite decades of recovery. The secondary forest showed similar light profiles to intact forest, but with a lower canopy height. We also show that in some cases the upper canopy layer and heavy liana infestations can severely limit light penetration. Light extinction with height above the ground and depth below the canopy top was highest in fragmented forest and negatively correlated with canopy height. The novel, inexpensive, and rapid methods described here can be applied to other sites to quantify rarely measured vertical light profiles.

Solar radiation and functional traits explain the decline of forest primary productivity along a tropical elevation gradient.

One of the major challenges in ecology is to understand how ecosystems respond to changes in environmental conditions, and how taxonomic and functional diversity mediate these changes. In this study, we use a trait-spectra and individual-based model, to analyse variation in forest primary productivity along a 3.3 km elevation gradient in the Amazon-Andes. The model accurately predicted the magnitude and trends in forest productivity with elevation, with solar radiation and plant functional traits (leaf dry mass per area, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus concentration, and wood density) collectively accounting for productivity variation. Remarkably, explicit representation of temperature variation with elevation was not required to achieve accurate predictions of forest productivity, as trait variation driven by species turnover appears to capture the effect of temperature. Our semi-mechanistic model suggests that spatial variation in traits can potentially be used to estimate spatial variation in productivity at the landscape scale.

Tree growth-climate relationships in a forest-plot network on Mediterranean mountains.

In this study we analysed a novel tree-growth dataset, inferred from annual ring-width measurements, of 7 forest tree species from 12 mountain regions in Greece, in order to identify tree growth - climate relationships. The tree species of interest were: Abies cephalonica, Abies borisii-regis, Picea abies, Pinus nigra, Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus frainetto growing across a gradient of climate conditions with mean annual temperature ranging from 5.7 to 12.6°C and total annual precipitation from 500 to 950mm. In total, 344 tree cores (one per tree) were analysed across a network of 20 study sites. We found that water availability during the summer period (May-August) was a strong predictor of interannual variation in tree growth for all study species. Across species and sites, annual tree growth was positively related to summer season precipitation (PSP). The responsiveness of annual growth to PSP was tightly related to species and site specific measurements of instantaneous photosynthetic water use efficiency (WUE), suggesting that the growth of species with efficient water use is more responsive to variations in precipitation during the dry months of the year. Our findings support the importance of water availability for the growth of mountainous Mediterranean tree species and highlight that future reductions in precipitation are likely to lead to reduced tree-growth under climate change conditions.

Predicting trait-environment relationships for venation networks along an Andes-Amazon elevation gradient.

Understanding functional trait-environment relationships (TERs) may improve predictions of community assembly. However, many empirical TERs have been weak or lacking conceptual foundation. TERs based on leaf venation networks may better link individuals and communities via hydraulic constraints. We report measurements of vein density, vein radius, and leaf thickness for more than 100 dominant species occurring in ten forest communities spanning a 3,300 m Andes-Amazon elevation gradient in Peru. We use these data to measure the strength of TERs at community scale and to determine whether observed TERs are similar to those predicted by physiological theory. We found strong support for TERs between all traits and temperature, as well weaker support for a predicted TER between maximum abundance-weighted leaf transpiration rate and maximum potential evapotranspiration. These results provide one approach for developing a more mechanistic trait-based community assembly theory.

Evolutionary heritage influences Amazon tree ecology.

Lineages tend to retain ecological characteristics of their ancestors through time. However, for some traits, selection during evolutionary history may have also played a role in determining trait values. To address the relative importance of these processes requires large-scale quantification of traits and evolutionary relationships among species. The Amazonian tree flora comprises a high diversity of angiosperm lineages and species with widely differing life-history characteristics, providing an excellent system to investigate the combined influences of evolutionary heritage and selection in determining trait variation. We used trait data related to the major axes of life-history variation among tropical trees (e.g. growth and mortality rates) from 577 inventory plots in closed-canopy forest, mapped onto a phylogenetic hypothesis spanning more than 300 genera including all major angiosperm clades to test for evolutionary constraints on traits. We found significant phylogenetic signal (PS) for all traits, consistent with evolutionarily related genera having more similar characteristics than expected by chance. Although there is also evidence for repeated evolution of pioneer and shade tolerant life-history strategies within independent lineages, the existence of significant PS allows clearer predictions of the links between evolutionary diversity, ecosystem function and the response of tropical forests to global change.

Consistent, small effects of treefall disturbances on the composition and diversity of four Amazonian forests.

Understanding the resilience of moist tropical forests to treefall disturbance events is important for understanding the mechanisms that underlie species coexistence and for predicting the future composition of these ecosystems. Here, we test whether variation in the functional composition of Amazonian forests determines their resilience to disturbance.We studied the legacy of natural treefall disturbance events in four forests across Amazonia that differ substantially in functional composition. We compared the composition and diversity of all free-standing woody stems 2-10 cm diameter in previously disturbed and undisturbed 20 × 20 m subplots within 55, one-hectare, long-term forest inventory plots.Overall, stem number increased following disturbance, and species and functional composition shifted to favour light-wooded, small-seeded taxa. Alpha-diversity increased, but beta-diversity was unaffected by disturbance, in all four forests.Changes in response to disturbance in both functional composition and alpha-diversity were, however, small (2 - 4% depending on the parameter) and similar among forests. Synthesis. This study demonstrates that variation in the functional composition of Amazonian forests does not lead to large differences in the response of these forests to treefall disturbances, and overall, these events have a minor role in maintaining the diversity of these ecosystems.

Separating species and environmental determinants of leaf functional traits in temperate rainforest plants along a soil-development chronosequence.

We measured a diverse range of foliar characteristics in shrub and tree species in temperate rainforest communities along a soil chronosequence (six sites from 8 to 120000 years) and used multilevel model analysis to attribute the proportion of variance for each trait into genetic (G, here meaning species-level), environmental (E) and residual error components. We hypothesised that differences in leaf traits would be driven primarily by changes in soil nutrient availability during ecosystem progression and retrogression. Several leaf structural, chemical and gas-exchange traits were more strongly driven by G than E effects. For leaf mass per unit area (MA), foliar [N], net CO2 assimilation and dark respiration rates and foliar carbohydrate concentration, the G component accounted for 60-87% of the total variance, with the variability associated with plot, the E effect, much less important. Other traits, such as foliar [P] and N:P, displayed strong E and residual effects. Analyses revealed significant reductions in the slopes of G-only bivariate relationships when compared with raw relationships, indicating that a large proportion of trait-trait relationships is species based, and not a response to environment per se. This should be accounted for when assessing the mechanistic basis for using such relationships in order to make predictions of responses of plants to short-term environmental change.

Global variability in leaf respiration in relation to climate, plant functional types and leaf traits.

Leaf dark respiration (Rdark ) is an important yet poorly quantified component of the global carbon cycle. Given this, we analyzed a new global database of Rdark and associated leaf traits. Data for 899 species were compiled from 100 sites (from the Arctic to the tropics). Several woody and nonwoody plant functional types (PFTs) were represented. Mixed-effects models were used to disentangle sources of variation in Rdark . Area-based Rdark at the prevailing average daily growth temperature (T) of each site increased only twofold from the Arctic to the tropics, despite a 20°C increase in growing T (8-28°C). By contrast, Rdark at a standard T (25°C, Rdark (25) ) was threefold higher in the Arctic than in the tropics, and twofold higher at arid than at mesic sites. Species and PFTs at cold sites exhibited higher Rdark (25) at a given photosynthetic capacity (Vcmax (25) ) or leaf nitrogen concentration ([N]) than species at warmer sites. Rdark (25) values at any given Vcmax (25) or [N] were higher in herbs than in woody plants. The results highlight variation in Rdark among species and across global gradients in T and aridity. In addition to their ecological significance, the results provide a framework for improving representation of Rdark in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) and associated land-surface components of Earth system models (ESMs).

Species adaptive strategies and leaf economic relationships across serpentine and non-serpentine habitats on Lesbos, eastern Mediterranean.

Shifts in species' traits across contrasting environments have the potential to influence ecosystem functioning. Plant communities on unusually harsh soils may have unique responses to environmental change, through the mediating role of functional plant traits. We conducted a field study comparing eight functional leaf traits of seventeen common species located on both serpentine and non-serpentine environments on Lesbos Island, in the eastern Mediterranean. We focused on species' adaptive strategies across the two contrasting environments and investigated the effect of trait variation on the robustness of core 'leaf economic' relationships across local environmental variability. Our results showed that the same species followed a conservative strategy on serpentine substrates and an exploitative strategy on non-serpentine ones, consistent with the leaf economic spectrum predictions. Although considerable species-specific trait variability emerged, the single-trait responses across contrasting environments were generally consistent. However, multivariate-trait responses were diverse. Finally, we found that the strength of relationships between core 'leaf economic' traits altered across local environmental variability. Our results highlight the divergent trait evolution on serpentine and non-serpentine communities and reinforce other findings presenting species-specific responses to environmental variation.

Variations in Amazon forest productivity correlated with foliar nutrients and modelled rates of photosynthetic carbon supply.

The rate of above-ground woody biomass production, W(P), in some western Amazon forests exceeds those in the east by a factor of 2 or more. Underlying causes may include climate, soil nutrient limitations and species composition. In this modelling paper, we explore the implications of allowing key nutrients such as N and P to constrain the photosynthesis of Amazon forests, and also we examine the relationship between modelled rates of photosynthesis and the observed gradients in W(P). We use a model with current understanding of the underpinning biochemical processes as affected by nutrient availability to assess: (i) the degree to which observed spatial variations in foliar [N] and [P] across Amazonia affect stand-level photosynthesis; and (ii) how these variations in forest photosynthetic carbon acquisition relate to the observed geographical patterns of stem growth across the Amazon Basin. We find nutrient availability to exert a strong effect on photosynthetic carbon gain across the Basin and to be a likely important contributor to the observed gradient in W(P). Phosphorus emerges as more important than nitrogen in accounting for the observed variations in productivity. Implications of these findings are discussed in the context of future tropical forests under a changing climate.

Drought-mortality relationships for tropical forests.

*The rich ecology of tropical forests is intimately tied to their moisture status. Multi-site syntheses can provide a macro-scale view of these linkages and their susceptibility to changing climates. Here, we report pan-tropical and regional-scale analyses of tree vulnerability to drought. *We assembled available data on tropical forest tree stem mortality before, during, and after recent drought events, from 119 monitoring plots in 10 countries concentrated in Amazonia and Borneo. *In most sites, larger trees are disproportionately at risk. At least within Amazonia, low wood density trees are also at greater risk of drought-associated mortality, independent of size. For comparable drought intensities, trees in Borneo are more vulnerable than trees in the Amazon. There is some evidence for lagged impacts of drought, with mortality rates remaining elevated 2 yr after the meteorological event is over. *These findings indicate that repeated droughts would shift the functional composition of tropical forests toward smaller, denser-wooded trees. At very high drought intensities, the linear relationship between tree mortality and moisture stress apparently breaks down, suggesting the existence of moisture stress thresholds beyond which some tropical forests would suffer catastrophic tree mortality.