Interactions between immune cell types facilitate the evolution of immune traits.

An essential prerequisite for evolution by natural selection is variation among individuals in traits that affect fitness1. The ability of a system to produce selectable variation, known as evolvability2, thus greatly affects the rate of evolution. The immune system belongs to the fastest evolving components in mammals3, yet the sources of variation in immune traits remain largely unknown4,5. Here, we show that an important determinant of the immune system's evolvability is its organisation into interacting modules represented by different immune cell types. By profiling immune cell variation in bone marrow of 54 genetically diverse mouse strains from the Collaborative Cross6, we found that variation in immune cell frequencies is polygenic and that many associated genes are involved in homeostatic balance through cell-intrinsic functions of proliferation, migration and cell death. However, we also found genes associated with the frequency of a particular cell type, which are expressed in a different cell type, exerting their effect in what we term cyto-trans. Vertebrate evolutionary record shows that genes associated in cyto-trans have faced weaker negative selection, thus increasing the robustness and hence evolvability2,7,8 of the immune system. This phenomenon is similarly observable in human blood. Our findings suggest that interactions between different components of the immune system provide a phenotypic space where mutations can produce variation without much detriment, underscoring the role of modularity in the evolution of complex systems9.

Evaluating and improving health equity and fairness of polygenic scores.

Polygenic scores (PGSs) are quantitative metrics for predicting phenotypic values, such as human height or disease status. Some PGS methods require only summary statistics of a relevant genome-wide association study (GWAS) for their score. One such method is Lassosum, which inherits the model selection advantages of Lasso to select a meaningful subset of the GWAS single-nucleotide polymorphisms as predictors from their association statistics. However, even efficient scores like Lassosum, when derived from European-based GWASs, are poor predictors of phenotype for subjects of non-European ancestry; that is, they have limited portability to other ancestries. To increase the portability of Lassosum, when GWAS information and estimates of linkage disequilibrium are available for both ancestries, we propose Joint-Lassosum (JLS). In the simulation settings we explore, JLS provides more accurate PGSs compared to other methods, especially when measured in terms of fairness. In analyses of UK Biobank data, JLS was computationally more efficient but slightly less accurate than a Bayesian comparator, SDPRX. Like all PGS methods, JLS requires selection of predictors, which are determined by data-driven tuning parameters. We describe a new approach to selecting tuning parameters and note its relevance for model selection for any PGS. We also draw connections to the literature on algorithmic fairness and discuss how JLS can help mitigate fairness-related harms that might result from the use of PGSs in clinical settings. While no PGS method is likely to be universally portable, due to the diversity of human populations and unequal information content of GWASs for different ancestries, JLS is an effective approach for enhancing portability and reducing predictive bias.

A week in the life of the human brain: stable states punctuated by chaotic transitions.

Many important neurocognitive states, such as performing natural activities and fluctuations of arousal, shift over minutes-to-hours in the real-world. We harnessed 3-12 days of continuous multi-electrode intracranial recordings in twenty humans during natural behavior (socializing, using digital devices, sleeping, etc.) to study real-world neurodynamics. Applying deep learning with dynamical systems approaches revealed that brain networks formed consistent stable states that predicted behavior and physiology. Changes in behavior were associated with bursts of rapid neural fluctuations where brain networks chaotically explored many configurations before settling into new states. These trajectories traversed an hourglass-shaped structure anchored around a set of networks that slowly tracked levels of outward awareness related to wake-sleep stages, and a central attractor corresponding to default mode network activation. These findings indicate ways our brains use rapid, chaotic transitions that coalesce into neurocognitive states slowly fluctuating around a stabilizing central equilibrium to balance flexibility and stability during real-world behavior.

Evaluating and Improving Health Equity and Fairness of Polygenic Scores.

Polygenic scores (PGS) are quantitative metrics for predicting phenotypic values, such as human height or disease status. Some PGS methods require only summary statistics of a relevant genome-wide association study (GWAS) for their score. One such method is Lassosum, which inherits the model selection advantages of Lasso to select a meaningful subset of the GWAS single nucleotide polymorphisms as predictors from their association statistics. However, even efficient scores like Lassosum, when derived from European-based GWAS, are poor predictors of phenotype for subjects of non-European ancestry; that is, they have limited portability to other ancestries. To increase the portability of Lassosum, when GWAS information and estimates of linkage disequilibrium are available for both ancestries, we propose Joint-Lassosum. In the simulation settings we explore, Joint-Lassosum provides more accurate PGS compared with other methods, especially when measured in terms of fairness. Like all PGS methods, Joint-Lassosum requires selection of predictors, which are determined by data-driven tuning parameters. We describe a new approach to selecting tuning parameters and note its relevance for model selection for any PGS. We also draw connections to the literature on algorithmic fairness and discuss how Joint-Lassosum can help mitigate fairness-related harms that might result from the use of PGS scores in clinical settings. While no PGS method is likely to be universally portable, due to the diversity of human populations and unequal information content of GWAS for different ancestries, Joint-Lassosum is an effective approach for enhancing portability and reducing predictive bias.

An approach to gene-based testing accounting for dependence of tests among nearby genes.

In genome-wide association studies (GWAS), it has become commonplace to test millions of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for phenotypic association. Gene-based testing can improve power to detect weak signal by reducing multiple testing and pooling signal strength. While such tests account for linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure of SNP alleles within each gene, current approaches do not capture LD of SNPs falling in different nearby genes, which can induce correlation of gene-based test statistics. We introduce an algorithm to account for this correlation. When a gene's test statistic is independent of others, it is assessed separately; when test statistics for nearby genes are strongly correlated, their SNPs are agglomerated and tested as a locus. To provide insight into SNPs and genes driving association within loci, we develop an interactive visualization tool to explore localized signal. We demonstrate our approach in the context of weakly powered GWAS for autism spectrum disorder, which is contrasted to more highly powered GWAS for schizophrenia and educational attainment. To increase power for these analyses, especially those for autism, we use adaptive $P$-value thresholding, guided by high-dimensional metadata modeled with gradient boosted trees, highlighting when and how it can be most useful. Notably our workflow is based on summary statistics.

Post-selection inference for changepoint detection algorithms with application to copy number variation data.

Changepoint detection methods are used in many areas of science and engineering, for example, in the analysis of copy number variation data to detect abnormalities in copy numbers along the genome. Despite the broad array of available tools, methodology for quantifying our uncertainty in the strength (or the presence) of given changepoints post-selection are lacking. Post-selection inference offers a framework to fill this gap, but the most straightforward application of these methods results in low-powered hypothesis tests and leaves open several important questions about practical usability. In this work, we carefully tailor post-selection inference methods toward changepoint detection, focusing on copy number variation data. To accomplish this, we study commonly used changepoint algorithms: binary segmentation, as well as two of its most popular variants, wild and circular, and the fused lasso. We implement some of the latest developments in post-selection inference theory, mainly auxiliary randomization. This improves the power, which requires implementations of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (importance sampling and hit-and-run sampling) to carry out our tests. We also provide recommendations for improving practical useability, detailed simulations, and example analyses on array comparative genomic hybridization as well as sequencing data.

Endogenous activity modulates stimulus and circuit-specific neural tuning and predicts perceptual behavior.

Perception reflects not only sensory inputs, but also the endogenous state when these inputs enter the brain. Prior studies show that endogenous neural states influence stimulus processing through non-specific, global mechanisms, such as spontaneous fluctuations of arousal. It is unclear if endogenous activity influences circuit and stimulus-specific processing and behavior as well. Here we use intracranial recordings from 30 pre-surgical epilepsy patients to show that patterns of endogenous activity are related to the strength of trial-by-trial neural tuning in different visual category-selective neural circuits. The same aspects of the endogenous activity that relate to tuning in a particular neural circuit also correlate to behavioral reaction times only for stimuli from the category that circuit is selective for. These results suggest that endogenous activity can modulate neural tuning and influence behavior in a circuit- and stimulus-specific manner, reflecting a potential mechanism by which endogenous neural states facilitate and bias perception.

A selective inference approach for false discovery rate control using multiomics covariates yields insights into disease risk.

To correct for a large number of hypothesis tests, most researchers rely on simple multiple testing corrections. Yet, new methodologies of selective inference could potentially improve power while retaining statistical guarantees, especially those that enable exploration of test statistics using auxiliary information (covariates) to weight hypothesis tests for association. We explore one such method, adaptive P-value thresholding (AdaPT), in the framework of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and gene expression/coexpression studies, with particular emphasis on schizophrenia (SCZ). Selected SCZ GWAS association P values play the role of the primary data for AdaPT; single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are selected because they are gene expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs). This natural pairing of SNPs and genes allow us to map the following covariate values to these pairs: GWAS statistics from genetically correlated bipolar disorder, the effect size of SNP genotypes on gene expression, and gene-gene coexpression, captured by subnetwork (module) membership. In all, 24 covariates per SNP/gene pair were included in the AdaPT analysis using flexible gradient boosted trees. We demonstrate a substantial increase in power to detect SCZ associations using gene expression information from the developing human prefrontal cortex. We interpret these results in light of recent theories about the polygenic nature of SCZ. Importantly, our entire process for identifying enrichment and creating features with independent complementary data sources can be implemented in many different high-throughput settings to ultimately improve power.

Automated acoustic detection of mouse scratching.

Itch is an aversive somatic sense that elicits the desire to scratch. In animal models of itch, scratching behavior is frequently used as a proxy for itch, and this behavior is typically assessed through visual quantification. However, manual scoring of videos has numerous limitations, underscoring the need for an automated approach. Here, we propose a novel automated method for acoustic detection of mouse scratching. Using this approach, we show that chloroquine-induced scratching behavior in C57BL/6 mice can be quantified with reasonable accuracy (85% sensitivity, 75% positive predictive value). This report is the first method to apply supervised learning techniques to automate acoustic scratch detection.

A rational approach to legacy data validation when transitioning between electronic health record systems.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this project was to use statistical techniques to determine the completeness and accuracy of data migrated during electronic health record conversion. METHODS: Data validation during migration consists of mapped record testing and validation of a sample of the data for completeness and accuracy. We statistically determined a randomized sample size for each data type based on the desired confidence level and error limits. RESULTS: The only error identified in the post go-live period was a failure to migrate some clinical notes, which was unrelated to the validation process. No errors in the migrated data were found during the 12- month post-implementation period. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the typical industry approach, we have demonstrated that a statistical approach to sampling size for data validation can ensure consistent confidence levels while maximizing efficiency of the validation process during a major electronic health record conversion.