Could fish aggregation at ocean aquaculture augment wild populations and local fisheries?

The global population consumes more seafood from aquaculture today than from capture fisheries and although the aquaculture industry continues to grow, both seafood sectors will continue to be important to the global food supply into the future. As farming continues to expand into ocean systems, understanding how wild populations and fisheries will interact with farms will be increasingly important to informing sustainable ocean planning and management. Using a spatially explicit population and fishing model we simulate several impacts from ocean aquaculture (i.e., aggregation, protection from fishing, and impacts on fitness) to evaluate the mechanisms underlying interactions between aquaculture, wild populations and fisheries. We find that aggregation of species to farms can increase the benefits of protection from fishing that a farm provides and can have greater impacts on more mobile species. Splitting total farm area into smaller farms can benefit fishery catches, whereas larger farms can provide greater ecological benefits through conservation of wild populations. Our results provide clear lessons on how to design and co-manage expanding ocean aquaculture along with wild capture ecosystem management to benefit fisheries or conservation objectives.

Climate change reduces long-term population benefits from no-take marine protected areas through selective pressures on species movement.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are important conservation tools that confer ecosystem benefits by removing fishing within their borders to allow stocks to rebuild. Fishing mortality outside a traditionally fixed MPA can exert selective pressure for low movement alleles, resulting in enhanced protection. While evolving to move less may be useful for conservation presently, it could be detrimental in the face of climate change for species that need to move to track their thermal optimum. Here, we build a spatially explicit simulation model to assess the impact of movement evolution in and around static MPAs resulting from both fishing mortality and temperature-dependent natural mortality on conservation benefits across five climate scenarios: (i) linear mean temperature shift, (ii) El Niño/La Niña conditions, (iii) heat waves, (iv) heatwaves with a mean temperature shift, and (v) no climate change. While movement evolution allows populations within MPAs to survive longer, we find that over time, climate change degrades the benefits by selecting for higher movement genotypes. Resulting population declines within MPAs are faster than expected based on climate mortality alone, even within the largest MPAs. Our findings suggest that while static MPAs may conserve species for a time, other strategies, such as dynamic MPA networks or assisted migration, may also be required to effectively incorporate climate change into conservation planning.

Effect of trade on global aquatic food consumption patterns.

Globalization of fishery products is playing a significant role in shaping the harvesting and use of aquatic foods, but a vigorous debate has focused on whether the trade is a driver of the inequitable distribution of aquatic foods. Here, we develop species-level mass balance and trophic level identification datasets for 174 countries and territories to analyze global aquatic food consumption patterns, trade characteristics, and impacts from 1976 to 2019. We find that per capita consumption of aquatic foods has increased significantly at the global scale, but the human aquatic food trophic level (HATL), i.e., the average trophic level of aquatic food items in the human diet, is declining (from 3.42 to 3.18) because of the considerable increase in low-trophic level aquaculture species output relative to that of capture fisheries since 1976. Moreover, our study finds that trade has contributed to increasing the availability and trophic level of aquatic foods in >60% of the world's countries. Trade has also reduced geographic differences in the HATL among countries over recent decades. We suggest that there are important opportunities to widen the current focus on productivity gains and economic outputs to a more equitable global distribution of aquatic foods.

Nutrient supply from marine small-scale fisheries.

Over 2 billion people are unable to access safe, nutritious and sufficient food year-round. While global fisheries are considered key in providing essential nutrients to hundreds of millions of people around the globe, the specific contribution of small-scale fisheries to the nutrient supply given other available food supplies is unknown. Here, we combined multiple global databases to quantify the importance of marine small-scale fisheries to national-level nutrient supply of coastal populations. We found that, on average across assessed nutrients (iron, zinc, calcium, DHA + EPA and vitamins A and B12), small-scale fisheries contributed about 32% of overall global seafood nutrient supply, 17% of the nutrient supply from animal-sourced foods and 10% of nutrient supply from all foods. These global averages, however, underrepresent some key roles of ocean-based foods. Combining nutrient supply estimates with global estimates of inadequate nutrient intake, we found that about half of coastal countries that have a mean inadequate intake of at least 50% across assessed nutrients (iron, zinc, calcium, DHA + EPA and vitamins A and B12) rely on small scale fisheries for at least 15% of mean nutrient supply, and many rely on small scale fisheries for more than 30% of mean nutrient supply. Catch from small-scale fisheries is particularly important for the supply of vitamin B12, calcium and DHA + EPA, representing up to 100% of supply in selected countries. Our study demonstrates the significance of small-scale fisheries for nutritionally vulnerable coastal populations, emphasizing how effective fisheries management can contribute to public health.

Environmental context dependency in species interactions.

Ecological interactions are not uniform across time and can vary with environmental conditions. Yet, interactions among species are often measured with short-term controlled experiments whose outcomes can depend greatly on the particular environmental conditions under which they are performed. As an alternative, we use empirical dynamic modeling to estimate species interactions across a wide range of environmental conditions directly from existing long-term monitoring data. In our case study from a southern California kelp forest, we test whether interactions between multiple kelp and sea urchin species can be reliably reconstructed from time-series data and whether those interactions vary predictably in strength and direction across observed fluctuations in temperature, disturbance, and low-frequency oceanographic regimes. We show that environmental context greatly alters the strength and direction of species interactions. In particular, the state of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation seems to drive the competitive balance between kelp species, asserting bottom-up control on kelp ecosystem dynamics. We show the importance of specifically studying variation in interaction strength, rather than mean interaction outcomes, when trying to understand the dynamics of complex ecosystems. The significant context dependency in species interactions found in this study argues for a greater utilization of long-term data and empirical dynamic modeling in studies of the dynamics of other ecosystems.

Expanding ocean food production under climate change.

As the human population and demand for food grow1, the ocean will be called on to provide increasing amounts of seafood. Although fisheries reforms and advances in offshore aquaculture (hereafter 'mariculture') could increase production2, the true future of seafood depends on human responses to climate change3. Here we investigated whether coordinated reforms in fisheries and mariculture could increase seafood production per capita under climate change. We find that climate-adaptive fisheries reforms will be necessary but insufficient to maintain global seafood production per capita, even with aggressive reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions. However, the potential for sustainable mariculture to increase seafood per capita is vast and could increase seafood production per capita under all but the most severe emissions scenario. These increases are contingent on fisheries reforms, continued advances in feed technology and the establishment of effective mariculture governance and best practices. Furthermore, dramatically curbing emissions is essential for reducing inequities, increasing reform efficacy and mitigating risks unaccounted for in our analysis. Although climate change will challenge the ocean's ability to meet growing food demands, the ocean could produce more food than it does currently through swift and ambitious action to reduce emissions, reform capture fisheries and expand sustainable mariculture operations.

Prepare developed democracies for long-run economic slowdowns.

Developed democracies proliferated over the past two centuries during an unprecedented era of economic growth, which may be ending. Macroeconomic forecasts predict slowing growth throughout the twenty-first century for structural reasons such as ageing populations, shifts from goods to services, slowing innovation, and debt. Long-run effects of COVID-19 and climate change could further slow growth. Some sustainability scientists assert that slower growth, stagnation or de-growth is an environmental imperative, especially in developed countries. Whether slow growth is inevitable or planned, we argue that developed democracies should prepare for additional fiscal and social stress, some of which is already apparent. We call for a 'guided civic revival', including government and civic efforts aimed at reducing inequality, socially integrating diverse populations and building shared identities, increasing economic opportunity for youth, improving return on investment in taxation and public spending, strengthening formal democratic institutions and investing to improve non-economic drivers of subjective well-being.

A novel marine spatial management tool for multiple conflicts recognition and optimization of marine functional zoning in the East China sea.

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is to manage incompatible functional use for achieving spatial homogeneity in sea. However most MSP strategies focus on single-target sea use demand ignoring multiple-conflicts of different demands. Thus, this study develops a spatial management model and quantitatively recognizes two types of spatial conflicts among eight sea use functions in the Zhejiang coasts, China. Under the simulation of three different management scenarios including independent, joint and overall-value managements respectively, we further propose a conflict optimization scheme in the scenarios of sea uses with different intensities, different types of sea use combinations, and different site selection. Most importantly, this study demonstrates the spatial management model is a powerful and efficient tool for spatial multiple-conflicts trade-off and matching sea use demands under the practical approach of marine functional zoning (MFC) in China.

Assessing the population-level conservation effects of marine protected areas.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) cover 3-7% of the world's ocean, and international organizations call for 30% coverage by 2030. Although numerous studies show that MPAs produce conservation benefits inside their borders, many MPAs are also justified on the grounds that they confer conservation benefits to the connected populations that span beyond their borders. A network of MPAs covering roughly 20% of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary was established in 2003, with a goal of providing regional conservation and fishery benefits. We used a spatially explicit bioeconomic simulation model and a Bayesian difference-in-difference regression to examine the conditions under which MPAs can provide population-level conservation benefits inside and outside their borders and to assess evidence of those benefits in the Channel Islands. As of 2017, we estimated that biomass densities of targeted fin-fish had a median value 81% higher (90% credible interval: 23-148) inside the Channel Island MPAs than outside. However, we found no clear effect of these MPAs on mean total biomass densities at the population level: estimated median effect was -7% (90% credible interval: -31 to 23) from 2015 to 2017. Our simulation model showed that effect sizes of MPAs of <30% were likely to be difficult to detect (even when they were present); smaller effect sizes (which are likely to be common) were even harder to detect. Clearly, communicating expectations and uncertainties around MPAs is critical to ensuring that MPAs are effective. We provide a novel assessment of the population-level effects of a large MPA network across many different species of targeted fin-fish, and our results offer guidance for communities charged with monitoring and adapting MPAs.

Las áreas marinas protegidas (AMPs) cubren entre 3-7% de los océanos del planeta y las organizaciones internacionales piden una cobertura del 30% para el 2030. Aunque numerosos estudios muestran que las AMPs producen beneficios de conservación dentro de sus límites, muchas de estas áreas también están justificadas por otorgarles beneficios de conservación a las poblaciones conectadas que abarcan más allá de sus fronteras. Una red de AMPs que cubre aproximadamente el 20% del Santuario Marino Nacional de las Islas del Canal fue establecida en 2003 con el objetivo de proporcionar beneficios para la conservación y las pesquerías regionales. Usamos un modelo de simulación bioeconómica espacialmente explícito y una regresión bayesiana de diferencia-en-diferencia para examinar las condiciones bajo las que las AMPs pueden proporcionar beneficios de conservación a nivel poblacional dentro y fuera de sus límites y para evaluar las evidencias de esos beneficios en las Islas del Canal. Hasta el 2017, estimamos que la densidad de la biomasa de los peces focalizados tuvo un valor medio de 81% (90% intervalo creíble 23-148) dentro de las AMPs de las Islas del Canal que fuera de ellas. Sin embargo, no encontramos un efecto claro de estas AMPs sobre la densidad de biomasa total promedio a nivel poblacional; el efecto medio estimado fue de -7% (90% intervalo creíble -31 - 23) entre 2015 y 2017. Nuestro modelo de simulación mostró que los tamaños del efecto de las AMPs menores al 30% tenían mayor probabilidad de ser difíciles de detectar (incluso cuando estaban presentes); los tamaños de efecto más pequeños (que es probable que sean comunes) fueron incluso más difíciles de detectar. Claramente, es muy importante comunicar las expectativas e incertidumbres en torno a las AMPs para asegurar que éstas sean efectivas. Proporcionamos una evaluación novedosa de los efectos a nivel poblacional de una red extensa de AMPs para muchas especies de peces focalizados y nuestros resultados ofrecen una guía para las comunidades encargadas de monitorear y adaptar las AMPs.

Range edges of North American marine species are tracking temperature over decades.

Understanding the dynamics of species range edges in the modern era is key to addressing fundamental biogeographic questions about abiotic and biotic drivers of species distributions. Range edges are where colonization and extirpation processes unfold, and so these dynamics are also important to understand for effective natural resource management and conservation. However, few studies to date have analyzed time series of range edge positions in the context of climate change, in part because range edges are difficult to detect. We first quantified positions for 165 range edges of marine fishes and invertebrates from three U.S. continental shelf regions using up to five decades of survey data and a spatiotemporal model to account for sampling and measurement variability. We then analyzed whether those range edges maintained their edge thermal niche-the temperatures found at the range edge position-over time. A large majority of range edges (88%) maintained either summer or winter temperature extremes at the range edge over the study period, and most maintained both (76%), although not all of those range edges shifted in space. However, we also found numerous range edges-particularly poleward edges and edges in the region that experienced the most warming-that did not shift at all, shifted further than predicted by temperature alone, or shifted opposite the direction expected, underscoring the multiplicity of factors that drive changes in range edge positions. This study suggests that range edges of temperate marine species have largely maintained the same edge thermal niche during periods of rapid change and provides a blueprint for testing whether and to what degree species range edges track temperature in general.

Protecting the global ocean for biodiversity, food and climate.

The ocean contains unique biodiversity, provides valuable food resources and is a major sink for anthropogenic carbon. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are an effective tool for restoring ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services1,2, but at present only 2.7% of the ocean is highly protected3. This low level of ocean protection is due largely to conflicts with fisheries and other extractive uses. To address this issue, here we developed a conservation planning framework to prioritize highly protected MPAs in places that would result in multiple benefits today and in the future. We find that a substantial increase in ocean protection could have triple benefits, by protecting biodiversity, boosting the yield of fisheries and securing marine carbon stocks that are at risk from human activities. Our results show that most coastal nations contain priority areas that can contribute substantially to achieving these three objectives of biodiversity protection, food provision and carbon storage. A globally coordinated effort could be nearly twice as efficient as uncoordinated, national-level conservation planning. Our flexible prioritization framework could help to inform both national marine spatial plans4 and global targets for marine conservation, food security and climate action.

A global network of marine protected areas for food.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are conservation tools that are increasingly implemented, with growing national commitments for MPA expansion. Perhaps the greatest challenge to expanded use of MPAs is the perceived trade-off between protection and food production. Since MPAs can benefit both conservation and fisheries in areas experiencing overfishing and since overfishing is common in many coastal nations, we ask how MPAs can be designed specifically to improve fisheries yields. We assembled distribution, life history, and fisheries exploitation data for 1,338 commercially important stocks to derive an optimized network of MPAs globally. We show that strategically expanding the existing global MPA network to protect an additional 5% of the ocean could increase future catch by at least 20% via spillover, generating 9 to 12 million metric tons more food annually than in a business-as-usual world with no additional protection. Our results demonstrate how food provisioning can be a central driver of MPA design, offering a pathway to strategically conserve ocean areas while securing seafood for the future.

Let more big fish sink: Fisheries prevent blue carbon sequestration-half in unprofitable areas.

Contrary to most terrestrial organisms, which release their carbon into the atmosphere after death, carcasses of large marine fish sink and sequester carbon in the deep ocean. Yet, fisheries have extracted a massive amount of this "blue carbon," contributing to additional atmospheric CO2 emissions. Here, we used historical catches and fuel consumption to show that ocean fisheries have released a minimum of 0.73 billion metric tons of CO2 (GtCO2) in the atmosphere since 1950. Globally, 43.5% of the blue carbon extracted by fisheries in the high seas comes from areas that would be economically unprofitable without subsidies. Limiting blue carbon extraction by fisheries, particularly on unprofitable areas, would reduce CO2 emissions by burning less fuel and reactivating a natural carbon pump through the rebuilding of fish stocks and the increase of carcasses deadfall.

Latitude and protection affect decadal trends in reef trophic structure over a continental scale.

The relative roles of top-down (consumer-driven) and bottom-up (resource-driven) forcing in exploited marine ecosystems have been much debated. Examples from a variety of marine systems of exploitation-induced, top-down trophic forcing have led to a general view that human-induced predator perturbations can disrupt entire marine food webs, yet other studies that have found no such evidence provide a counterpoint. Though evidence continues to emerge, an unresolved debate exists regarding both the relative roles of top-down versus bottom-up forcing and the capacity of human exploitation to instigate top-down, community-level effects. Using time-series data for 104 reef communities spanning tropical to temperate Australia from 1992 to 2013, we aimed to quantify relationships among long-term trophic group population density trends, latitude, and exploitation status over a continental-scale biogeographic range. Specifically, we amalgamated two long-term monitoring databases of marine community dynamics to test for significant positive or negative trends in density of each of three key trophic levels (predators, herbivores, and algae) across the entire time series at each of the 104 locations. We found that trophic control tended toward bottom-up driven in tropical systems and top-down driven in temperate systems. Further, alternating long-term population trends across multiple trophic levels (a method of identifying trophic cascades), presumably due to top-down trophic forcing, occurred in roughly fifteen percent of locations where the prerequisite significant predator trends occurred. Such alternating trophic trends were significantly more likely to occur at locations with increasing predator densities over time. Within these locations, we found a marked latitudinal gradient in the prevalence of long-term, alternating trophic group trends, from rare in the tropics (<5% of cases) to relatively common in temperate areas (~45%). Lastly, the strongest trends in predator and algal density occurred in older no-take marine reserves; however, exploitation status did not affect the likelihood of alternating long-term trophic group trends occurring. Our data suggest that the type and degree of trophic forcing in this system are likely related to one or more covariates of latitude, and that ecosystem resiliency to top-down control does not universally vary in this system based on exploitation level.