Estimands for atopic dermatitis clinical trials: Expert opinion on the importance of intercurrent events.

Despite the emergence of novel targeted treatments for atopic dermatitis (AD), there is a lack of guidelines on standardizing analysis of clinical trial data. To define and estimate meaningful treatment comparisons, several factors, including intercurrent events, must be taken into account. Intercurrent events are defined as events occurring after treatment initiation that affect either the interpretation or existence of the measurements associated with clinical questions of interest. Due to the relapsing, unpredictable nature of AD, intercurrent events frequently occur in AD trials, such as use of rescue therapy for intense itch and sleep deprivation. Despite the impact of intercurrent events in AD, they are often handled in an inconsistent manner across trials, which limits results interpretation. The estimand framework is increasingly used to estimate treatment effects while accounting for intercurrent events. This review explores how guidance from the International Council for Harmonization of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) on the use of estimands can be applied to support AD clinical trial design and analysis. We propose that estimands are used in AD trials and defined early during trial design. The use of estimands can provide clinicians with interventional trial results that are more reflective of clinical practice, help facilitate comparisons across clinical trials, and are more informative to enable improved treatment selection for patients.

Pooled safety analysis of baricitinib in adult patients with atopic dermatitis from 8 randomized clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Janus kinase (JAK) inhibition is a new mode of action in atopic dermatitis (AD); clarity about drug class safety considerations in the context of AD is important. Baricitinib, an oral, reversible, selective inhibitor of JAK1/JAK2, is in late-stage development for adult patients with moderate-to-severe AD. OBJECTIVE: To report pooled safety data for baricitinib in patients with moderate-to-severe AD in the clinical development program including long-term extension (LTE) studies. METHODS: This analysis included patient-level safety data from six double-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled studies (one phase 2 and five phase 3), one double-blinded, randomized, LTE study and one open-label LTE study, reported in three data sets: placebo-controlled, 2-mg - 4-mg extended and All-bari AD. Safety outcomes include treatment-emergent adverse events, adverse events of special interest and abnormal laboratory changes. Proportions of patients with events and incidence rates were calculated. RESULTS: Data were collected for 2531 patients who were given baricitinib for 2247 patient-years (median duration 310 days). The frequency of serious infections, opportunistic infections and conjunctival disorders was low and similar between treatment groups in the placebo-controlled period. The most common serious infections were eczema herpeticum [n = 11, incidence rates (IR) = 0.5], cellulitis (n = 6, IR = 0.3) and pneumonia (n = 3, IR = 0.1). There were four opportunistic infections (IR = 0.2). No malignancies, gastrointestinal perforations, positively adjudicated cardiovascular events or tuberculosis were reported in the placebo-controlled period in baricitinib-treated patients. Frequency of herpes simplex was higher in the 4-mg group (6.1%) vs. the 2-mg (3.6%) and placebo group (2.7%); IRs in the extended data set (2-mg IR = 9.6; 4-mg IR = 14.5) were lower vs. the placebo-controlled data set (2-mg IR = 12.4; 4-mg IR = 21.3). In the All-bari AD data set, there were two positively adjudicated major adverse cardiovascular events (2-mg group): two venous thrombosis events (4-mg group) and one death. CONCLUSION: This integrated safety analysis in patients with moderate-to-severe AD confirms the established safety profile of baricitinib.

Baricitinib in patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis and inadequate response to topical corticosteroids: results from two randomized monotherapy phase III trials.

BACKGROUND: Baricitinib, an oral selective Janus kinase 1 and 2 inhibitor, effectively reduced atopic dermatitis (AD) severity in a phase II study with concomitant topical corticosteroids. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of baricitinib in patients with moderate-to-severe AD who had an inadequate response to topical therapies. METHODS: In two independent, multicentre, double-blind, phase III monotherapy trials, BREEZE-AD1 and BREEZE-AD2, adults with moderate-to-severe AD were randomized 2 : 1 : 1 : 1 to once-daily placebo, baricitinib 1 mg, 2 mg, or 4 mg for 16 weeks. RESULTS: At week 16, more patients achieved the primary end point of Validated Investigator's Global Assessment of AD (0, 1) on baricitinib 4 mg and 2 mg compared with placebo in BREEZE-AD1 [N = 624; baricitinib 4 mg 16·8% (P < 0·001), 2 mg 11·4% (P < 0·05), 1 mg 11·8% (P < 0·05), placebo 4·8%], and BREEZE-AD2 [N = 615; baricitinib 4 mg 13·8% (P = 0·001), 2 mg 10·6% (P < 0·05), 1 mg 8·8% (P = 0·085), placebo 4·5%]. Improvement in itch was achieved as early as week 1 for 4 mg and week 2 for 2 mg. Improvements in night-time awakenings, skin pain and quality-of-life measures were observed by week 1 for both 4 mg and 2 mg (P ≤ 0·05, all comparisons). The most common adverse events in patients treated with baricitinib were nasopharyngitis and headache. No cardiovascular events, venous thromboembolism, gastrointestinal perforation, significant haematological changes, or death were observed with any baricitinib dosage. CONCLUSIONS: Baricitinib improved clinical signs and symptoms in patients with moderate-to-severe AD within 16 weeks of treatment and induced rapid reduction of itch. The safety profile remained consistent with prior findings from baricitinib clinical development in AD, with no new safety concerns.

Bayesian approach to non-inferiority trials for normal means.

Regulatory framework recommends that novel statistical methodology for analyzing trial results parallels the frequentist strategy, e.g. the new method must protect type-I error and arrive at a similar conclusion. Keeping these in mind, we construct a Bayesian approach for non-inferiority trials with normal response. A non-informative prior is assumed for the mean response of the experimental treatment and Jeffrey's prior for its corresponding variance when it is unknown. The posteriors of the mean response and variance of the treatment in historical trials are then assumed as priors for its corresponding parameters in the current trial, where that treatment serves as the active control. From these priors, a Bayesian decision criterion is derived to determine whether the experimental treatment is non-inferior to the active control. This criterion is evaluated and compared with the frequentist method using simulation studies. Results show that both Bayesian and frequentist approaches perform alike, but the Bayesian approach has a higher power when the variances are unknown. Both methods also arrive at the same conclusion of non-inferiority when applied on two real datasets. A major advantage of the proposed Bayesian approach lies in its ability to provide posterior probabilities for varying effect sizes of the experimental treatment over the active control.