A new clinical and prognostic characterization of the patterns of decompensation of cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognostic impact of acute decompensation (AD), i.e. the development of complications that require hospitalization, has recently been assessed. However, complications of cirrhosis do not necessarily require hospitalization and can develop progressively, as in the recently defined non-acute decompensation (NAD). Nevertheless, there is no data regarding the incidence and prognostic impact of NAD. The aim of the study was to evaluate the incidence and the prognostic impact of NAD and AD in outpatients with cirrhosis. METHODS: A total of 617 outpatients with cirrhosis from two Italian tertiary centers (Padua and Milan) were enrolled from January 2003 to June 2021 and followed prospectively until the end of the study, death or liver transplantation. The complications registered during follow-up were considered as AD if they required hospitalization, or NAD if managed at the outpatient clinic. RESULTS: During follow-up, 154 patients (25.0% of total patients) developed complications, 69 patients (44.8%) developed NAD and 85 (55.2%) developed AD, while 29 patients with NAD (42.0%) developed a further episode of AD during follow-up. Sixty-month survival was significantly higher in patients with no decompensation than in patients with NAD or AD. On multivariable analysis, AD (hazard ratio [HR] 21.07, p <0.001), NAD (HR 7.13, p <0.001), the etiological cure of cirrhosis (HR 0.38, p <0.001) and model for end-stage liver disease score (HR 1.12, p = 0.003) were found to be independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The first decompensation is non-acute in almost 50% of outpatients, though such events are still associated with decreased survival compared to no decompensation. Patients who develop NAD must be treated with extreme care and monitored closely to prevent the development of AD. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: This multicenter study is the first to investigate the role of non-acute decompensation (NAD) in patients with cirrhosis. In fact, while the unfavorable impact of acute decompensation is well known, there is currently a dearth of evidence on NAD, despite it being a common occurrence in clinical practice. Our data show that almost half of decompensations in patients with cirrhosis can be considered NAD and that such events are associated with a higher risk of mortality than no decompensation. This study has important clinical implications because it highlights the need to carefully consider patients who develop NAD, in order to prevent further decompensation and reduce mortality.

Impact of bacterial infections prior to liver transplantation on post-transplant outcomes in patients with cirrhosis.

Background & Aims: Bacterial infections are frequent in patients with cirrhosis and increase the risk of death and drop-out from liver transplant (LT) waiting list. In patients with bacterial infections, LT is frequently delayed because of the fear of poor outcomes. We evaluated the impact of pre-LT infections on post-LT complications and survival. Methods: From 2012 to 2018, consecutive patients transplanted at the Hospital of Padua were identified and classified in two groups: patients surviving an episode of bacterial infection within 3 months before LT (study group) and patients without infections before LT (control group). Post-LT outcomes (complications, new infections, survival) were collected. Results: A total of 466 LT recipients were identified (study group n = 108; control group n = 358). After LT, the study group had a higher incidence of new bacterial (57% vs. 20%, p <0.001) and fungal infections (14% vs. 5%, p = 0.001) and of septic shock (8% vs. 2%, p = 0.004) than the control group. Along with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and alcohol-related cirrhosis, bacterial infection pre-LT was an independent predictor of post-LT infections (odds ratio = 3.92; p <0.001). Nevertheless, no significant difference was found in 1-year (88% vs. 89%, p = 0.579) and 5-year survival rates (76% vs. 75%, p = 0.829) between the study group and control group. Within the study group, no association was found between the time elapsed from infection improvement/resolution to LT and post-LT outcomes. Conclusions: Patients with pre-LT infections have a higher risk of new bacterial and fungal infections and of septic shock after LT. However, post-LT survival is excellent. Therefore, as soon as the bacterial infection is improving/resolving, transplant should not be delayed, but patients with pre-transplant bacterial infections require active surveillance for infections after LT. Impact and Implications: Bacterial infections increase mortality and delay transplant in patients with cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation (LT). Little is known about the impact of adequately treated infections before LT on post-transplant complications and outcomes. The study highlights that pre-LT infections increase the risk of post-LT infections, but post-LT survival rates are excellent despite the risk. These findings suggest that physicians should not delay LT because of concerns about pre-LT infections, but instead should actively monitor these patients for infections after surgery.

Etiological cure prevents further decompensation and mortality in patients with cirrhosis with ascites as the single first decompensating event.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Removal/suppression of the primary etiological factor reduces the risk of decompensation and mortality in compensated cirrhosis. However, in decompensated cirrhosis, the impact of etiologic treatment is less predictable. We aimed to evaluate the impact of etiological treatment in patients with cirrhosis who developed ascites as single index decompensating event. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Patients with cirrhosis and ascites as single first decompensation event were included and followed until death, liver transplantation, or Q3/2021. The etiology was considered "cured" (alcohol abstinence, hepatitis C cure, and hepatitis B suppression) versus "controlled" (partial removal of etiologic factors) versus "uncontrolled." A total of 622 patients were included in the study. Etiology was "cured" in 146 patients (24%), "controlled" in 170 (27%), and "uncontrolled" in 306 (49%). During follow-up, 350 patients (56%) developed further decompensation. In multivariable analysis (adjusted for age, sex, varices, etiology, Child-Pugh class, creatinine, sodium, and era of decompensation), etiological cure was independently associated with a lower risk of further decompensation (HR: 0.46; p = 0.001). During follow-up, 250 patients (40.2%) died, while 104 (16.7%) underwent LT. In multivariable analysis, etiological cure was independently associated with a lower mortality risk (HR: 0.35, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with cirrhosis and ascites as single first decompensating event, the cure of liver disease etiology represents a main treatment goal since this translates into considerably lower risks of further decompensation and mortality.

Sympathetic nervous activation, mitochondrial dysfunction and outcome in acutely decompensated cirrhosis: the metabolomic prognostic models (CLIF-C MET).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Current prognostic scores of patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis (AD), particularly those with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), underestimate the risk of mortality. This is probably because systemic inflammation (SI), the major driver of AD/ACLF, is not reflected in the scores. SI induces metabolic changes, which impair delivery of the necessary energy for the immune reaction. This investigation aimed to identify metabolites associated with short-term (28-day) death and to design metabolomic prognostic models. METHODS: Two prospective multicentre large cohorts from Europe for investigating ACLF and development of ACLF, CANONIC (discovery, n=831) and PREDICT (validation, n=851), were explored by untargeted serum metabolomics to identify and validate metabolites which could allow improved prognostic modelling. RESULTS: Three prognostic metabolites strongly associated with death were selected to build the models. 4-Hydroxy-3-methoxyphenylglycol sulfate is a norepinephrine derivative, which may be derived from the brainstem response to SI. Additionally, galacturonic acid and hexanoylcarnitine are associated with mitochondrial dysfunction. Model 1 included only these three prognostic metabolites and age. Model 2 was built around 4-hydroxy-3-methoxyphenylglycol sulfate, hexanoylcarnitine, bilirubin, international normalised ratio (INR) and age. In the discovery cohort, both models were more accurate in predicting death within 7, 14 and 28 days after admission compared with MELDNa score (C-index: 0.9267, 0.9002 and 0.8424, and 0.9369, 0.9206 and 0.8529, with model 1 and model 2, respectively). Similar results were found in the validation cohort (C-index: 0.940, 0.834 and 0.791, and 0.947, 0.857 and 0.810, with model 1 and model 2, respectively). Also, in ACLF, model 1 and model 2 outperformed MELDNa 7, 14 and 28 days after admission for prediction of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Models including metabolites (CLIF-C MET) reflecting SI, mitochondrial dysfunction and sympathetic system activation are better predictors of short-term mortality than scores based only on organ dysfunction (eg, MELDNa), especially in patients with ACLF.

Diagnostic and prognostic performance of urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin in patients with cirrhosis and acute kidney injury.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) could help discriminate between different etiologies of AKI. The aim of this study was to investigate the use of uNGAL in (1) the differential diagnosis of AKI, (2) predicting the response to terlipressin and albumin in patients with hepatorenal syndrome-AKI (HRS-AKI), and (3) predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with AKI. APPROACH AND RESULTS: One hundred sixty-two consecutive patients with cirrhosis and AKI were included from 2015 to 2020 and followed until transplant, death, or 90 days. Standard urinary markers and uNGAL were measured. Data on treatment, type, and resolution of AKI were collected. Thirty-five patients (21.6%) had prerenal AKI, 64 (39.5%) HRS-AKI, 27 (16.7%) acute tubular necrosis-AKI (ATN-AKI), and 36 (22.2%) a mixed form of AKI. Mean values of uNGAL were significantly higher in ATN-AKI than in other types of AKI (1162 ng/ml [95% CI 423-2105 ng/ml] vs. 109 ng/ml [95% CI 52-192 ng/ml]; p  < 0.001). uNGAL showed a high discrimination ability in predicting ATN-AKI (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.854; 95% CI 0.767-0.941; p  < 0.001). The best-performing threshold was found to be 220 ng/ml (sensitivity, 89%; specificity, 78%). The same threshold was independently associated with a higher risk of nonresponse (adjusted OR [aOR], 6.17; 95% CI 1.41-27.03; p  = 0.016). In multivariable analysis (adjusted for age, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, acute-on-chronic liver failure, leukocytes, and type of AKI), uNGAL was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (aOR, 1.74; 95% CI 1.26-2.38; p  = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: uNGAL is an adequate biomarker for making a differential diagnosis of AKI in cirrhosis and predicting the response to terlipressin and albumin in patients with HRS-AKI. In addition, it is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality.

Risk of further decompensation/mortality in patients with cirrhosis and ascites as the first single decompensation event.

Background & Aims: Although ascites is the most frequent first decompensating event in cirrhosis, the clinical course after ascites as the single index decompensation is not well defined. The aim of this multicentre study was thus to systematically investigate the incidence and type of further decompensation after ascites as the first decompensating event and to assess risk factors for mortality. Methods: A total of 622 patients with cirrhosis presenting with grade 2/3 ascites as the single index decompensating event at 2 university hospitals (Padova and Vienna) between 2003 and 2021 were included. Events of further decompensation, liver transplantation, and death were recorded. Results: The mean age was 57 ± 11 years, and most patients were male (n = 423, 68%) with alcohol-related (n = 366, 59%) and viral (n = 200,32%) liver disease as the main aetiologies. In total, 323 (52%) patients presented with grade 2 and 299 (48%) with grade 3 ascites. The median Child-Pugh score at presentation was 8 (IQR 7-9), and the mean model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was 15 ± 6. During a median follow-up period of 49 months, 350 (56%) patients experienced further decompensation: refractory ascites (n = 130, 21%), hepatic encephalopathy (n = 112, 18%), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (n = 32, 5%), hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury (n = 29, 5%). Variceal bleeding as an isolated further decompensation event was rare (n = 18, 3%), whereas non-bleeding further decompensation (n = 161, 26%) and ≥2 concomitant further decompensation events (n = 171, 27%) were frequent. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt was used in only 81 (13%) patients. In patients presenting with grade 2 ascites, MELD ≥15 indicated a considerable risk for further decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 2.18; p <0.001; 1-year incidences: <10: 10% vs. 10-14: 13% vs. ≥15: 28%) and of mortality (SHR 1.89; p = 0.004; 1-year incidences: <10: 3% vs. 10-14: 6% vs. ≥15: 14%). Importantly, mortality was similarly high throughout MELD strata in grade 3 ascites (p = n.s. for different MELD strata; 1-year incidences: <10: 14% vs. 10-14: 15% vs. ≥15: 20%). Conclusions: Further decompensation is frequent in patients with ascites as a single index decompensation event and only rarely owing to bleeding. Although patients with grade 2 ascites and MELD <15 seem to have a favourable prognosis, those with grade 3 ascites are at a high risk of mortality across all MELD strata. Lay summary: Decompensation (the development of symptoms as a result of worsening liver function) marks a turning point in the disease course for patients with cirrhosis. Ascites (i.e. , the accumulation of fluid in the abdomen) is the most common first decompensating event, yet little is known about the clinical course of patients who develop ascites as a single first decompensating event. Herein, we show that the severity of ascites is associated with mortality and that in patients with moderate ascites, the widely used prognostic MELD score can predict patient outcomes.

Performance of non-invasive respiratory function indices in predicting clinical outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia in medical and sub-intensive wards: a retrospective cohort study.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a newly recognized infectious disease which can lead to acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring ventilatory support and intensive care unit admission. The aim of our study is to evaluate the performance of two non-invasive respiratory function indices (the ROX index and the SatO2/FiO2 ratio), as compared to the traditional PaO2/FiO2 ratio, in predicting a clinically relevant composite outcome (death or intubation) in hospitalized patients for COVID-19 pneumonia. Four hospital centers in Northern Italy conducted an observational retrospective cohort study during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic. Four hundred and fifty-six patients with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to medical or sub-intensive wards were enrolled. Clinical, laboratory, and respiratory parameters, for the calculation of different indices, were measured at hospital admission. In medical wards (Verona and Padua) the PaO2/FiO2 ratio, ROX index and SatO2/FiO2 ratio were able to predict intubation or death with good accuracy (AUROC for the PaO2/FiO2 ratio, ROX index and SatO2/FiO2 ratio of 75%, 75% and 74%, respectively). Regarding sub-intensive wards (Milan and Mantua), none of the three respiratory function indices was significantly associated with the composite outcome. In patients admitted to medical wards for COVID-19 pneumonia, the ROX index and the SatO2/FiO2 ratio demonstrated not only good performance in predicting intubation or death, but their accuracy was comparable to that of the PaO2/FiO2 ratio. In this setting, where repeated arterial blood gas tests are not always feasible, they could be considered a reliable alternative to the invasive PaO2/FiO2 ratio.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Cirrhosis.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome that develops in patients with acutely decompensated chronic liver disease. It is characterised by high 28-day mortality, the presence of one or more organ failures (OFs) and a variable but severe grade of systemic inflammation. Despite the peculiarity of each one, every definition proposed for ACLF recognizes it as a proper clinical entity. In this paper, we provide an overview of the diagnostic criteria proposed by the different scientific societies and the clinical characteristics of the syndrome. Established and experimental treatments are also described. Among the former, the most relevant are directed to support organ failures, treat precipitating factors and carry out early assessment for liver transplantation (LT). Further studies are needed to better clarify pathophysiology of the syndrome and discover new therapies.

PREDICT identifies precipitating events associated with the clinical course of acutely decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis may present without acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) (AD-No ACLF), or with ACLF (AD-ACLF), defined by organ failure(s). Herein, we aimed to analyze and characterize the precipitants leading to both of these AD phenotypes. METHODS: The multicenter, prospective, observational PREDICT study (NCT03056612) included 1,273 non-electively hospitalized patients with AD (No ACLF = 1,071; ACLF = 202). Medical history, clinical data and laboratory data were collected at enrolment and during 90-day follow-up, with particular attention given to the following characteristics of precipitants: induction of organ dysfunction or failure, systemic inflammation, chronology, intensity, and relationship to outcome. RESULTS: Among various clinical events, 4 distinct events were precipitants consistently related to AD: proven bacterial infections, severe alcoholic hepatitis, gastrointestinal bleeding with shock and toxic encephalopathy. Among patients with precipitants in the AD-No ACLF cohort and the AD-ACLF cohort (38% and 71%, respectively), almost all (96% and 97%, respectively) showed proven bacterial infection and severe alcoholic hepatitis, either alone or in combination with other events. Survival was similar in patients with proven bacterial infections or severe alcoholic hepatitis in both AD phenotypes. The number of precipitants was associated with significantly increased 90-day mortality and was paralleled by increasing levels of surrogates for systemic inflammation. Importantly, adequate first-line antibiotic treatment of proven bacterial infections was associated with a lower ACLF development rate and lower 90-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified precipitants that are significantly associated with a distinct clinical course and prognosis in patients with AD. Specific preventive and therapeutic strategies targeting these events may improve outcomes in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. LAY SUMMARY: Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis is characterized by a rapid deterioration in patient health. Herein, we aimed to analyze the precipitating events that cause AD in patients with cirrhosis. Proven bacterial infections and severe alcoholic hepatitis, either alone or in combination, accounted for almost all (96-97%) cases of AD and acute-on-chronic liver failure. Whilst the type of precipitant was not associated with mortality, the number of precipitant(s) was. This study identified precipitants that are significantly associated with a distinct clinical course and prognosis of patients with AD. Specific preventive and therapeutic strategies targeting these events may improve patient outcomes.

Natural history of acute kidney disease in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In 2012, the KDIGO group proposed new definitions for acute kidney injury (AKI), acute kidney disease (AKD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). According to the definition adapted by the International Club of Ascites, AKI has been extensively investigated in patients with cirrhosis. On the contrary, there are currently no data on the epidemiology and clinical outcomes associated with AKD. The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence and the impact of AKD on the clinical course and survival of patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: A total of 272 consecutive patients with cirrhosis attending our outpatient clinic were included in the study. Clinical and laboratory data were collected at inclusion. Patients were followed-up until death, liver transplant or the end of follow-up. RESULTS: During follow-up, 80 patients developed AKD (29.4%). Forty-two (52.5%) recovered from the first episode of AKD and 26 maintained a normal renal function up to the end of follow-up. Sixteen patients developed a second episode of AKD. Globally, 36 patients (45.0%) died with AKD. Finally, AKD progressed to CKD in 11 patients (13.8%). The 5-year survival rate was significantly lower in patients who developed AKD than in those who did not (34.8% vs. 88.8%, p <0.001). The 5-year rates of complications of cirrhosis and of hospitalizations were also higher in patients with AKD than in those without AKD. CONCLUSIONS: AKD is frequent in patients with cirrhosis. It can be reversible, but it may recur and progress to CKD. AKD has a very negative impact on morbidity and mortality in patients with cirrhosis. LAY SUMMARY: Renal impairment has a very negative impact on patients with cirrhosis. Renal impairment seems to be characterized by a very dynamic course, which is defined according to renal function and length of the impairment as acute kidney injury, acute kidney disease and chronic kidney disease. The role of acute kidney disease is currently unknown. Our study shows for the first time that acute kidney disease is frequent in patients with cirrhosis and has a very negative impact on survival.

Outcomes and Mortality of Grade 1 Ascites and Recurrent Ascites in Patients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Ascites has been classified according to quantity and response to medical therapy. Despite its precise definitions, little is known about the effects of grade 1 ascites or recurrent ascites (i.e. ascites that recurs at least on 3 occasions within a 12-month period despite dietary sodium restriction and adequate diuretic dosage) on patient outcome. We studied progression of grade 1 ascites and recurrent ascites in a large cohort of outpatients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We performed a post-hoc analysis of data from 547 outpatients with cirrhosis (259 without ascites, 54 patients with grade 1 ascites, 234 with grade 2 or 3 ascites) who participated a care management program study in Italy from March 2003 through September 2017. We collected demographic, clinical, and laboratory data and patients were evaluated at least every 6 months. Patients received abdominal ultrasound analysis at study inclusion and at least twice a year. Number and volume of paracentesis were collected, when available. Patients were followed until death, liver transplantation, or March 2018. The median follow-up time was 29 months. Primary outcomes were mortality and development of complications of cirrhosis. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in 60-month transplant-free survival between patients with grade 1 vs grade 2 or 3 ascites (36% vs 43%) but survival was significantly lower when both groups were compared with patients without ascites (68%; P < .001 for both comparisons). However, the grade of systemic inflammation and the rate of complications were significantly greater in patients with grade 1 ascites than in patients without ascites, but significantly lower than in patients with grade 2 or 3 ascites. Development of grade 2 or 3 ascites did not differ significantly between patients with no ascites vs grade 1 ascites (10% vs 14%). There was no significant difference in 36-month transplant-free survival between patients with ascites responsive to medical treatment vs recurrent ascites (78% vs 62%), whereas patients with refractory ascites had significantly lower survival than patients with responsive or recurrent ascites (23%; responsive vs refractory ascites P<.001; recurrent vs refractory ascites P = .022). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from a large cohort of outpatients with cirrhosis, we found that grade 1 ascites is associated with systemic inflammation, more complications, and increased mortality compared with no ascites. Mortality does not differ significantly between patients with recurrent ascites vs ascites responsive to medical treatment.

Response to Terlipressin and Albumin Is Associated With Improved Liver Transplant Outcomes in Patients With Hepatorenal Syndrome.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although terlipressin and albumin are effective at treating acute kidney injury-hepatorenal syndrome (AKI-HRS), liver transplantation (LT) is the best treatment. However, it is unclear if an effective treatment with terlipressin and albumin improves post-LT outcomes in these patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of response to treatment with terlipressin and albumin on posttransplant outcomes in patients with AKI-HRS. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We analyzed two cohorts of patients with cirrhosis listed for LT between 2012 and 2016: 82 patients who developed AKI-HRS before LT and were treated with terlipressin and albumin and 259 patients without AKI-HRS who received transplants during the study period (control group). After LT, patients were followed up until discharge, every month for the first 3 months, and every 3 months thereafter. Of the patients, 43 (52%) responded to terlipressin and albumin. Responders had a better 30-day transplant-free survival (60% vs. 33%, P = 0.006), longer LT waiting list time (37 vs. 17 days, P = 0.041), and lower Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score at the time of LT (23 vs. 29, P = 0.007). Among patients with AKI-HRS receiving transplant, nonresponders required renal replacement therapy (RRT) more frequently than responders (20% vs. 0%, P = 0.024). Nonresponders had a significantly higher incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) at 1 year after LT than responders (65% vs. 31%, P = 0.019). In multivariate analysis, nonresponse to terlipressin and albumin was found to be an independent predictor for CKD at 1 year after LT (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] = 2.76, P = 0.001), whereas responders did not have an increased risk (SHR = 1.53, P = 0.210). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AKI-HRS, response to terlipressin and albumin reduces the need for RRT after LT and reduces the risk of CKD at 1 year after LT.

The PREDICT study uncovers three clinical courses of acutely decompensated cirrhosis that have distinct pathophysiology.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis is defined as the acute development of ascites, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, infection or any combination thereof, requiring hospitalization. The presence of organ failure(s) in patients with AD defines acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). The PREDICT study is a European, prospective, observational study, designed to characterize the clinical course of AD and to identify predictors of ACLF. METHODS: A total of 1,071 patients with AD were enrolled. We collected detailed pre-specified information on the 3-month period prior to enrollment, and clinical and laboratory data at enrollment. Patients were then closely followed up for 3 months. Outcomes (liver transplantation and death) at 1 year were also recorded. RESULTS: Three groups of patients were identified. Pre-ACLF patients (n = 218) developed ACLF and had 3-month and 1-year mortality rates of 53.7% and 67.4%, respectively. Unstable decompensated cirrhosis (UDC) patients (n = 233) required ≥1 readmission but did not develop ACLF and had mortality rates of 21.0% and 35.6%, respectively. Stable decompensated cirrhosis (SDC) patients (n = 620) were not readmitted, did not develop ACLF and had a 1-year mortality rate of only 9.5%. The 3 groups differed significantly regarding the grade and course of systemic inflammation (high-grade at enrollment with aggravation during follow-up in pre-ACLF; low-grade at enrollment with subsequent steady-course in UDC; and low-grade at enrollment with subsequent improvement in SDC) and the prevalence of surrogates of severe portal hypertension throughout the study (high in UDC vs. low in pre-ACLF and SDC). CONCLUSIONS: Acute decompensation without ACLF is a heterogeneous condition with 3 different clinical courses and 2 major pathophysiological mechanisms: systemic inflammation and portal hypertension. Predicting the development of ACLF remains a major future challenge. CLINICALTRIALS. GOV NUMBER: NCT03056612. LAY SUMMARY: Herein, we describe, for the first time, 3 different clinical courses of acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis after hospital admission. The first clinical course includes patients who develop acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and have a high short-term risk of death - termed pre-ACLF. The second clinical course (unstable decompensated cirrhosis) includes patients requiring frequent hospitalizations unrelated to ACLF and is associated with a lower mortality risk than pre-ACLF. Finally, the third clinical course (stable decompensated cirrhosis), includes two-thirds of all patients admitted to hospital with AD - patients in this group rarely require hospital admission and have a much lower 1-year mortality risk.

Abnormal liver function tests predict transfer to intensive care unit and death in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has emerged as a relevant threat for humans worldwide. Abnormality in liver function tests (LFTs) has been commonly observed in patients with COVID-19, but there is controversy on its clinical significance. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence, the characteristics and the clinical impact of abnormal LFTs in hospitalized, non-critically ill patients with COVID-19. METHODS: In this multicentre, retrospective study, we collected data about 565 inpatients with COVID-19. Data on LFTs were collected at admission and every 7 ± 2 days during the hospitalization. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of death or transfer to intensive care unit (ICU). RESULTS: Upon admission 329 patients (58%) had LFTs abnormality. Patients with abnormal LFTs had more severe inflammation and higher degree of organ dysfunction than those without. During hospitalization, patients with abnormal LFTs had a higher rate of transfer to ICU (20% vs 8%; P < .001), acute kidney injury (22% vs 13%, P = .009), need for mechanical ventilation (14% vs 6%; P = .005) and mortality (21% vs 11%; P = .004) than those without. In multivariate analysis, patients with abnormal LFTs had a higher risk of the composite endpoint of death or transfer to ICU (OR = 3.53; P < .001). During the hospitalization, 86 patients developed de novo LFTs abnormality, which was associated with the use of tocilizumab, lopinavir/ritonavir and acetaminophen and not clearly associated with the composite endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: LFTs abnormality is common at admission in patients with COVID-19, is associated with systemic inflammation, organ dysfunction and is an independent predictor of transfer to ICU or death.

Assessment of bone mineral density in patients with cirrhosis treated with third-generation nucleos(t)ide analogues: comparison between tenofovir and entecavir.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Tenofovir and entecavir are nowadays the first-line treatment in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis. Both drugs were shown to be effective in HBV suppression and well tolerated. The effects of tenofovir on bone mineral density (BMD), however, were shown to worsen the rate of osteoporosis, which is already a common feature in cirrhosis. In contrast, entecavir seems to have no effect on mineral metabolism. The aim of our study was to compare the effects of nucleos(t)ide analogs on bone density in HBV-related cirrhosis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fourty-eight patients were treated with tenofovir and 22 patients were treated with entecavir, and were followed prospectively from 2008 to 2013. To evaluate BMD, laboratory examinations, dual-X-ray absorptiometry, and Fracture Risk Assessment Tool were assessed. RESULTS: During the study, no difference was found between the two groups in the plasmatic concentration of calcium, phosphate, vitamin D, parathyroid hormone, or creatinine. Dual-X-ray absorptiometry showed no difference in the T-score and Fracture Risk Assessment Tool showed no significant difference in the 10-year risk of osteoporotic fractures in the two groups. On univariate and multivariate analyses, the only predictors of osteoporosis development were the prognostic scores of liver disease and BMI. CONCLUSION: Both tenofovir and entecavir are effective in treating HBV in cirrhotic patients. The known effects of tenofovir on BMD do not worsen osteoporotic fractures risk compared with entecavir in these patients.

Incidence, predictors and outcomes of acute-on-chronic liver failure in outpatients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is the most life-threatening complication of cirrhosis. Prevalence and outcomes of ACLF have recently been described in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. However, no data is currently available on the prevalence and the risk factors of ACLF in outpatients with cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate incidence, predictors and outcomes of ACLF in a large cohort of outpatients with cirrhosis. METHODS: A total of 466 patients with cirrhosis consecutively evaluated in the outpatient clinic of a tertiary hospital were included and followed up until death and/or liver transplantation for a mean of 45±44months. Data on development of hepatic and extrahepatic organ failures were collected during this period. ACLF was defined and graded according to the EASL-CLIF Consortium definition. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 118 patients (25%) developed ACLF: 57 grade-1, 33 grade-2 and 28 grade-3. The probability of developing ACLF was 14%, 29%, and 41% at 1year, 5years, and 10years, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, baseline mean arterial pressure (hazard ratio [HR] 0.96; p=0.012), ascites (HR 2.53; p=0.019), model of end-stage liver disease score (HR 1.26; p<0.001) and baseline hemoglobin (HR 0.07; p=0.012) were found to be independent predictors of the development of ACLF at one year. As expected, ACLF was associated with a poor prognosis, with a 3-month probability of transplant-free survival of 56%. CONCLUSIONS: Outpatients with cirrhosis have a high risk of developing ACLF. The degree of liver failure and circulatory dysfunction are associated with the development of ACLF, as well as low values of hemoglobin. These simple variables may help to identify patients at a high risk of developing ACLF and to plan a program of close surveillance and prevention in these patients. LAY SUMMARY: There is a need to identify predictors of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with cirrhosis in order to identify patients at high risk of developing ACLF and to plan strategies of prevention. In this study, we identified four simple predictors of ACLF: model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, ascites, mean arterial pressure and hemoglobin. These variables may help to identify patients with cirrhosis, at a high risk of developing ACLF, that are candidates for new strategies of surveillance and prevention. Anemia is a potential new target for treating these patients.

Acute kidney injury in cirrhotic patients undergoing contrast-enhanced computed tomography.

Contrast medium administration is one of the leading causes of acute kidney injury (AKI) in different clinical settings. The aim of the study was to investigate occurrence and predisposing factors of AKI in cirrhotic patients undergoing contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT).Datasets of 1279 consecutively hospitalized cirrhotic patients were retrospectively analyzed. Two hundred forty-nine of 1279 patients (mean age 64 ±â€Š11 years, 165 male) who had undergone CECT were selected on the basis of the availability of serum creatinine (sCr) values evaluated before and after CECT (CECT group). In analogy, 203/1279 cases (mean age 66 ±â€Š10 years, 132 male) who had not undergone CECT and had been tested twice for sCr in 7 days were also included as controls (Control group). AKI network criteria were employed to assess contrast-induced AKI (CI-AKI) development. Apart from lack of narrowed double sCr measurements, additional exclusion criteria were active bacterial infections, nephrotoxic drugs intake, and estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 mL/min.AKI developed in 22/249 (8.8%) and in 6/203 (3%) of the CECT and the Control groups, respectively (P = 0.01). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that AKI was significantly associated with contrast medium administration (odds ratio [OR]: 3.242, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.255-8.375; P = 0.015), female sex (OR: 0.339, 95% CI: 0.139-0.827; P = 0.017), and sCr values (OR: 0.124, 95% CI: 0.016-0.975; P = 0.047). In the CECT group, presence of ascites (OR: 2.796, 95% CI: 1.109-7.052; P = 0.029), female sex (OR: 0.192, 95% CI: 0.073-0.510; P = 0.001), and hyperazotemia (OR: 1.018, 95% CI: 1.001-1.037; P = 0.043) correlated with CI-AKI development at multivariate analysis.CI-AKI is a quite frequent occurrence in cirrhotic patients with female sex, presence of ascites, and hyperazotemia being the predisposing factors.