Multiple Prior Live Births Are Associated With Cardiac Remodeling and Heart Failure Risk in Women.

OBJECTIVE: Greater parity has been associated with cardiovascular disease risk. We sought to find whether the effects on cardiac remodeling and heart failure risk are clear. METHODS: We examined the association of number of live births with echocardiographic measures of cardiac structure and function in participants of the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) using multivariable linear regression. We next examined the association of parity with incident heart failure with preserved (HFpEF) or reduced (HFrEF) ejection fraction using a Fine-Gray subdistribution hazards model in a pooled analysis of n = 12,635 participants in the FHS, the Cardiovascular Health Study, the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease. Secondary analyses included major cardiovascular disease, myocardia infarction and stroke. RESULTS: Among n = 3931 FHS participants (mean age 48 ± 13 years), higher numbers of live births were associated with worse left ventricular fractional shortening (multivariable ß -1.11 (0.31); P = 0.0005 in ≥ 5 live births vs nulliparous women) and worse cardiac mechanics, including global circumferential strain and longitudinal and radial dyssynchrony (P < 0.01 for all comparing ≥ 5 live births vs nulliparity). When examining HF subtypes, women with ≥ 5 live births were at higher risk of developing future HFrEF compared with nulliparous women (HR 1.93, 95% CI 1.19-3.12; P = 0.008); by contrast, a lower risk of HFpEF was observed (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.37-0.91; P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Greater numbers of live births are associated with worse cardiac structure and function. There was no association with overall HF, but a higher number of live births was associated with greater risk for incident HFrEF.

Venglustat, a Novel Glucosylceramide Synthase Inhibitor, in Patients at Risk of Rapidly Progressing ADPKD: Primary Results of a Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Phase 2/3 Randomized Clinical Trial.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is characterized by the formation of multiple kidney cysts that leads to growth in total kidney volume (TKV) and progression to kidney failure. Venglustat is a glucosylceramide synthase inhibitor that has been shown to inhibit cyst growth and reduce kidney failure in preclinical models of ADPKD. STUDY DESIGN: STAGED-PKD was a 2-stage, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled phase 2/3 study in adults with ADPKD at risk of rapidly progressive disease, who were selected based on Mayo Clinic imaging classification of ADPKD class 1C, 1D, or 1E and an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 30-89.9mL/min/1.73m2. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Enrollment included 236 and 242 patients in stages 1 and 2, respectively. INTERVENTIONS: In trial stage 1, the patients were randomized 1:1:1 to venglustat, 8mg; venglustat, 15mg; or placebo. In stage 2, the patients were randomized 1:1 to venglustat, 15mg (highest dose identified as safe and well tolerated in stage 1), or placebo. OUTCOMES: Primary end points were rate of change in TKV over 18 months in stage 1 and eGFR slope over 24 months in stage 2. Secondary end points were eGFR slope over 18 months (stage 1), rate of change in TKV (stage 2), and safety/tolerability, pain, and fatigue (stages 1 and 2). RESULTS: A prespecified interim futility analysis showed that venglustat treatment had no effect on the annualized rate of change in TKV over 18 months (stage 1) and had a faster rate of decline in eGFR slope over 24 months (stage 2). Due to this lack of efficacy, the study was terminated early. LIMITATIONS: The short follow-up period after the end of treatment and limited generalizability of the findings. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with rapidly progressing ADPKD, treatment with venglustat at either 8mg or 15mg showed no change in the rate of change in TKV and a faster rate of eGFR decline in STAGED-PKD despite a dose-dependent decrease in plasma glucosylceramide levels. FUNDING: This study was funded by Sanofi. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered at ClinicalTrials.gov with study number NCT03523728.

The STAGED-PKD 2-Stage Adaptive Study With a Patient Enrichment Strategy and Treatment Effect Modeling for Improved Study Design Efficiency in Patients With ADPKD.

Rationale & Objective: Venglustat, a glucosylceramide synthase inhibitor, inhibits cyst growth and reduces kidney failure in mouse models of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). STAGED-PKD aims to determine the safety and efficacy of venglustat and was designed using patient enrichment for progression to end-stage kidney disease and modeling from prior ADPKD trials. Study Design: STAGED-PKD is a 2-stage, international, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial in adults with ADPKD (Mayo Class 1C-1E) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 45-<90 mL/min/1.73 m2 at risk of rapidly progressive disease. Enrichment for rapidly progressing patients was identified based on retrospective analysis of total kidney volume (TKV) and eGFR slope from the combined Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of Polycystic Kidney Disease and HALT Progression of Polycystic Kidney Disease A studies. Setting & Participants: Target enrollment in stages 1 and 2 was 240 and 320 patients, respectively. Interventions: Stage 1 randomizes patients 1:1:1 to venglustat 8 mg or 15 mg once daily or placebo. Stage 2 randomizes patients 1:1 to placebo or venglustat, with the preferred dose based on stage 1 safety data. Outcomes: Primary endpoints are TKV growth rate over 18 months in stage 1 and eGFR slope over 24 months in stage 2. Secondary endpoints include: annualized rate of change in eGFR from baseline to 18 months (stage 1); annualized rate of change in TKV based on magnetic resonance imaging from baseline to 18 months (stage 2); and safety, tolerability, pain, and fatigue (stages 1 and 2). Limitations: If stage 1 is unsuccessful, patients enrolled in the trial may develop drug-related adverse events that can have long-lasting effects. Conclusions: Modeling allows the design and powering of a 2-stage combined study to assess venglustat's impact on TKV growth and eGFR slope. Stage 1 TKV assessment via a nested approach allows early evaluation of efficacy and increased efficiency of the trial design by reducing patient numbers and trial duration. Funding: This study was funded by Sanofi. Trial registration: STAGED-PKD has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov with study number NCT03523728.

Serum bicarbonate is associated with kidney outcomes in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic acidosis accelerates progression of chronic kidney disease, but whether this is also true for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is unknown. METHODS: Patients with ADPKD from the DIPAK (Developing Interventions to halt Progression of ADPKD) trial were included [n = 296, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 50 ± 11 mL/min/1.73 m2, 2.5 years follow-up]. Outcomes were worsening kidney function (30% decrease in eGFR or kidney failure), annual eGFR change and height-adjusted total kidney and liver volumes (htTKV and htTLV). Cox and linear regressions were adjusted for prognostic markers for ADPKD [Mayo image class and predicting renal outcomes in ADPKD (PROPKD) scores] and acid-base parameters (urinary ammonium excretion). RESULTS: Patients in the lowest tertile of baseline serum bicarbonate (23.1 ± 1.6 mmol/L) had a significantly greater risk of worsening kidney function [hazard ratio = 2.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-7.19] compared with patients in the highest tertile (serum bicarbonate 29.0 ± 1.3 mmol/L). Each mmol/L decrease in serum bicarbonate increased the risk of worsening kidney function by 21% in the fully adjusted model (hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% CI 1.06-1.37). Each mmol/L decrease of serum bicarbonate was also associated with further eGFR decline (-0.12 mL/min/1.73 m2/year, 95% CI -0.20 to -0.03). Serum bicarbonate was not associated with changes in htTKV or htTLV growth. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with ADPKD, a lower serum bicarbonate within the normal range predicts worse kidney outcomes independent of established prognostic factors for ADPKD and independent of urine ammonium excretion. Serum bicarbonate may add to prognostic models and should be explored as a treatment target in ADPKD.

Serum Calcification Propensity and the Risk of Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality in the General Population: The PREVEND Study.

OBJECTIVE: Vascular calcification contributes to the cause of cardiovascular disease. The calciprotein particle maturation time (T50) in serum, a measure of calcification propensity, has been linked with adverse outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease, but its role in the general population is unclear. We investigated whether serum T50 is associated with cardiovascular mortality in a large general population-based cohort. Approach and Results: The relationship between serum T50 and cardiovascular mortality was studied in 6231 participants of the PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease) cohort. All-cause mortality was the secondary outcome. Mean (±SD) age was 53±12 years, 50% were male, and mean serum T50 was 329±58 minutes. A shorter serum T50 is indicative of a higher calcification propensity. Serum T50 was inversely associated with circulating phosphate, age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and alcohol consumption, whereas plasma magnesium was positively associated with serum T50 (P<0.001, total multivariable model R2=0.281). During median (interquartile range) follow-up for 8.3 (7.8-8.9) years, 364 patients died (5.8%), of whom 95 (26.1%) died from a cardiovascular cause. In multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, each 60 minutes decrease in serum T50 was independently associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (fully adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI], 1.22 [1.04-1.36], P=0.021). This association was modified by diabetes mellitus; stratified analysis indicated a more pronounced association in individuals with diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSIONS: Serum T50 is independently associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality in the general population and thus may be an early and potentially modifiable risk marker for cardiovascular mortality.

Compositional Features of HDL Particles Interact with Albuminuria to Modulate Cardiovascular Disease Risk.

Lipoproteins containing apolipoprotein B modify associations of elevated urinary albumin excretion (UAE) with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Additionally, it is known that elevated UAE alters high-density lipoprotein functionality. Accordingly, we examined whether HDL features might also modify UAE-associated CVD. Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards modeling was performed on participants of the PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease) study at the baseline screening with standard lipid/lipoprotein analyses and, three-to-four years later (second screen), with nuclear magnetic resonance lipoprotein analyses focusing on HDL parameters including HDL particle (HDL-P) and apolipoprotein A-I concentrations. These were used with UAE and derived measures of HDL apoA-I content (apoA-I/HDL-C and apoA-I/HDL-P) in risk models adjusted for gender, age, apoB, diabetes, past CVD history, CRP and GFR. Interaction analysis was also performed. Baseline screening revealed significant associations inverse for HDL-C and apoA-I and direct for apoA-I/HDL-C. The second screening demonstrated associations inverse for HDL-P, large HDL-P, medium HDL-P, HDL size, and apoA-I/HDL-P. Significant interactions with UAE included apoA-I/HDL-C at the baseline screening, and apoA-I/HDL-P and medium HDL-P but not apoA-I/HDL-C at the second screening. We conclude that features of HDL particles including apoA-I/HDL-P, indicative of HDL apoA-I content, and medium HDL-P modify associations of elevated UAE with CVD risk.

Cardiovascular outcome trials in patients with chronic kidney disease: challenges associated with selection of patients and endpoints.

Although cardiovascular disease is a major health burden for patients with chronic kidney disease, most cardiovascular outcome trials have excluded patients with advanced chronic kidney disease. Moreover, the major cardiovascular outcome trials that have been conducted in patients with end-stage renal disease have not demonstrated a treatment benefit. Thus, clinicians have limited evidence to guide the management of cardiovascular disease in patients with chronic kidney disease, particularly those on dialysis. Several factors contribute to both the paucity of trials and the apparent lack of observed treatment effect in completed studies. Challenges associated with conducting trials in this population include patient heterogeneity, complexity of renal pathophysiology and its interaction with cardiovascular disease, and competing risks for death. The Investigator Network Initiative Cardiovascular and Renal Clinical Trialists (INI-CRCT), an international organization of academic cardiovascular and renal clinical trialists, held a meeting of regulators and experts in nephrology, cardiology, and clinical trial methodology. The group identified several research priorities, summarized in this paper, that should be pursued to advance the field towards achieving improved cardiovascular outcomes for these patients. Cardiovascular and renal clinical trialists must partner to address the uncertainties in the field through collaborative research and design clinical trials that reflect the specific needs of the chronic and end-stage kidney disease populations, with the shared goal of generating robust evidence to guide the management of cardiovascular disease in patients with kidney disease.

Pooled Analysis of Multiple Crossover Trials To Optimize Individual Therapy Response to Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Intervention.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In the treatment of CKD, individual patients show a wide variation in their response to many drugs, including renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASi). To investigate whether therapy resistance to RAASi can be overcome by uptitrating the dose of drug, changing the mode of intervention (with drugs from similar or different classes), or lowering dietary sodium intake, we meta-analyzed individual responses to different modes of interventions. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Randomized crossover trials were analyzed to assess correlation of individual responses to RAASi and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs; n=395 patients). Included studies compared the antialbuminuric effect of uptitrating the dose of RAASi (n=10 studies) and NSAIDs (n=1), changing within the same class of RAASi (e.g., angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition to angiotensin receptor blockers; n=5) or NSAIDs (n=1), changing from RAASi to NSAIDs (n=2), and changing from high to low sodium intake (n=5). A two-stage meta-analysis was conducted: Deming regression was conducted in each study to assess correlations in response, and individual study results were then meta-analyzed. RESULTS: The albuminuria response to one dose of RAASi or NSAIDs positively correlated with the response to a higher dose of the same drug (r=0.72; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.66 to 0.78), changes within the same class of RAASi or NSAIDs (r=0.54; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.68), changes between RAASi and NSAIDs (r=0.44; 95% CI, 0.16 to 0.66), and changes from high to moderately low salt intake (r=0.36; 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.48). Results were similar when the individual systolic BP and potassium responses were analyzed, and were consistent in patients with and without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals who show a poor response to one dose or type of RAASi also show a poor response to higher doses, other types of RAASi or NSAIDs, or a reduction in dietary salt intake. Whether other drugs or drug combinations targeting pathways beyond the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system and prostaglandins would improve the individual poor response requires further study.

Urinary renin-angiotensin markers in polycystic kidney disease.

In autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), activation of the renin-angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS) may contribute to hypertension and disease progression. Although previous studies have focused on circulating RAAS components, preliminary evidence suggests that APDKD may increase urinary RAAS components. Therefore, our aim was to analyze circulating and urinary RAAS components in ADPKD. We cross-sectionally compared 60 patients with ADPKD with 57 patients with non-ADPKD chronic kidney disease (CKD). The two groups were matched by sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), blood pressure, and RAAS inhibitor use. Despite similar plasma levels of angiotensinogen and renin, urinary angiotensinogen and renin excretion were five- to sixfold higher in ADPKD (P < 0.001). These differences persisted when adjusting for group differences and were present regardless of RAAS inhibitor use. In multivariable analyses, ADPKD, albuminuria, and the respective plasma concentrations were independent predictors for urinary angiotensinogen and renin excretion. In ADPKD, both plasma and urinary renin correlated negatively with eGFR. Total kidney volume correlated with plasma renin and albuminuria but not with urinary renin or angiotensinogen excretions. Albuminuria correlated positively with urinary angiotensinogen and renin excretions in ADPKD and CKD. In three ADPKD patients who underwent nephrectomy, the concentrations of albumin and angiotensinogen were highest in plasma, followed by cyst fluid and urine; urinary renin concentrations were higher than cyst fluid. In conclusion, this study shows that, despite similar circulating RAAS component levels, higher urinary excretions of angiotensinogen and renin are a unique feature of ADPKD. Future studies should address the underlying mechanism and whether this may contribute to hypertension or disease progression in ADPKD.

Effect of Tolvaptan in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease by CKD Stage: Results from the TEMPO 3:4 Trial.

BACKGROUND: and objectives The Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease and Its Outcomes 3:4 study demonstrated a significant beneficial effect of the vasopressin V2 receptor antagonist tolvaptan on rates of kidney growth and eGFR decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). This post hoc analysis was performed to reassess the primary and secondary efficacy endpoints by CKD stage at baseline. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: In a phase 3, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 3-year trial, 1445 patients with ADPKD (age 18-50 years), with total kidney volume (TKV) ≥750 ml and estimated creatinine clearance ≥60 ml/min, were randomly assigned 2:1 to split-dose tolvaptan (45/15, 60/30, or 90/30 mg daily as tolerated) or placebo. The primary endpoint was annualized rate of TKV change. Secondary endpoints included a composite endpoint of time to multiple composite ADPKD-related events (worsening kidney function, kidney pain, hypertension, and albuminuria) and rate of kidney function decline. RESULTS: Tolvaptan reduced annualized TKV growth by 1.99%, 3.12%, and 2.61% per year (all P<0.001; subgroup-treatment interaction, P=0.17) and eGFR decline by 0.40 in CKD1 (P=0.23), 1.13 in CKD2 (P<0.001) and 1.66 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year in CKD3 (P<0.001) with a trend for a positive subgroup-treatment interaction (P=0.07) across CKD1, CKD2 and CKD3. ADPKD-related events were less frequent in tolvaptan recipients than in placebo recipients among those with CKD1 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.83; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.70-0.98; P=0.03) and those with CKD 3 (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89; P=0.003), but not among those with CKD2 (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.85-1.21; P=0.86). Aquaresis-related adverse events (more frequent in the tolvaptan group) and ADPKD-related adverse events (more frequent in the placebo group) were not associated with CKD stage. Hypernatremia events in tolvaptan-treated patients with CKD3 and plasma aminotransferase elevations in tolvaptan-treated patients across CKD stages 1-3 occurred more frequently than in placebo recipients. CONCLUSIONS: This post hoc analysis suggests clinically similar beneficial effects of tolvaptan in ADPKD across CKD stages 1-3.

Inverse linear associations between liver aminotransferases and incident cardiovascular disease risk: The PREVEND study.

BACKGROUND: Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) have been linked with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes, but their relationships with cardiovascular disease (CVD) are uncertain. We aimed to assess the associations of ALT and AST with CVD risk and determine their potential utility for CVD risk prediction. METHODS: ALT and AST measurements were made at baseline in the PREVEND prospective cohort involving 6899 participants aged 28-75 years without pre-existing CVD. RESULTS: During 10.5 years of follow-up, 729 CVD events were recorded. Serum aminotransferases were strongly correlated with each other and each weakly correlated with several cardiovascular risk markers. ALT and AST were each approximately log-linearly associated with CVD risk. In analyses adjusted for conventional risk factors, the hazard ratios (95% CIs) for CVD per 1 standard deviation increase in loge ALT and loge AST were 0.87 (0.79-0.94; P = 0.001) and 0.91 (0.84-0.98; P = 0.017) respectively. The associations remained consistent after additional adjustment for several potential confounders including alcohol consumption, fasting glucose, and C-reactive protein, with corresponding hazard ratios of 0.88 (0.80-0.96; P = 0.003) and 0.92 (0.84-0.99; P = 0.029). The inverse associations persisted within normal ranges of the aminotransferases. Adding ALT or AST to a CVD risk prediction model containing established risk factors did not improve the C-index or net reclassification. CONCLUSIONS: Available data suggest the liver aminotransferases are each inversely, independently, and approximately log-linearly associated with CVD risk. Nonetheless, they provide no significant improvement in CVD risk assessment beyond conventional CVD risk factors.

Serum Alkaline Phosphatase and Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease: Interrelationship with High Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein.

BACKGROUND: Alkaline phosphatase (ALP) has been suggested to be associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, however, important aspects of the association, such as shape and independence from established risk factors, have yet to be characterized in detail. We assessed the association of ALP with CVD risk and determined its utility for CVD risk prediction. METHODS: Alkaline phosphatase activity was measured at baseline in the PREVEND prospective cohort involving 6,974 participants aged 28-75 years without pre-existing CVD. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals [CI]) and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification were assessed. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 10.5 years, 737 participants developed CVD. Serum ALP was correlated with several risk markers for CVD, with strongest correlations for age (r = 0.30; P < 0.001), gamma-glutamyltransferase (r = 0.26; P < 0.001), and C-reactive protein (CRP) (r = 0.25; P < 0.001). There was a non-linear "J-shaped" relationship between ALP and CVD risk. In analyses adjusted for conventional risk factors, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for CVD in a comparison of the top quintile versus bottom quintiles 1-4 of ALP values was 1.34 (1.14 to 1.56; P<0.001), which persisted after additional adjustment for potential confounders 1.33 (1.13 to 1.55; P<0.001). However, the association was somewhat attenuated after adjustment for CRP 1.24 (1.05 to 1.45; P=0.009). Addition of information on ALP to a CVD risk prediction model containing established risk factors did not improve the C-index or net reclassification. CONCLUSIONS: Available evidence suggests a non-linear association between ALP activity and CVD risk, which is partly dependent on CRP. Taking account of conventional risk factors, additional information on ALP does not improve CVD risk assessment.

Added value of screening for CKD among the elderly or persons with low socioeconomic status.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Three screening approaches were compared for their ability to detect CKD cases, and identify patients with CKD who have a higher rate of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and renal function decline. Approach 1 was the traditional CKD screening approach, targeting only individuals with known diabetes, hypertension, or CVD history. Approach 2 was defined as Approach 1+elderly, and Approach 3 as Approach 1+low-socioeconomic status (SES) individuals. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Data on 3411 individuals from the general population in The Netherlands were examined. Individuals aged >60 years were classified as elderly. Persons with low SES was defined as those with primary school or below primary school education. CKD was diagnosed during outpatient clinic visits. Individuals were followed for 9.4±2.6 years during four screening rounds. RESULTS: At baseline, 16%, 29%, and 25% of the general population was to be screened and 36%, 59%, and 51% of the CKD (n=263) cases were detected in Approaches 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The numbers of individuals needed to screen to detect one CKD case were 5.6 in Approach 1 and 6.5 each in Approach 2 and 3. In Approach 2 the hazard ratio for incident CVD events was 1.87 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.35 to 2.61) in detected and 1.92 (95% CI, 1.01 to 3.64) in undetected CKD cases compared with persons without CKD, whereas in Approach 3 these values were 2.31 (95% CI, 1.64 to 3.25) and 1.28 (95% CI, 0.77 to 2.13), respectively. In Approach 2, the rate of renal function decline was -1.37 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year in detected and -1.13 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year in undetected CKD cases. In Approach 3, these figures were -1.41 and -1.14 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Adding persons with low SES, rather than adding elderly persons, to the traditional high-risk groups may help detect more persons with CKD who have a higher rate of future CVD events and renal function decline.

Circulating gamma glutamyltransferase and prediction of cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: The value of measuring levels of gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain. We aimed to determine whether adding information on GGT values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of CVD risk. METHODS: Circulating GGT levels were measured at baseline in the PREVEND prospective cohort study. We included 6969 participants without a prevalent history of CVD. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals [CI]) and measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (e.g., C-index) and reclassification (i.e., net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5%), intermediate (5%to <7.5%), and high (≥7.5%) risk were assessed. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 10.5 years, 735 incident CVD events were recorded. Loge GGT was linearly associated with CVD risk. In analyses adjusted for conventional plus several potential cardiovascular risk factors, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for CVD per 1 standard deviation increase in loge GGT was 1.24 (1.12-1.37; P < 0.001), which was attenuated somewhat after further adjustment for C-reactive protein 1.18 (1.06-1.30; P = 0.002). Addition of information on GGT to a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index change of 0.0003 (-0.0015 to 0.0022; P = 0.73) and a net reclassification improvement of 1.19% (-0.11-2.49%; P = 0.07) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. CONCLUSIONS: In the general population, adding GGT to conventional CVD risk factors is unlikely to improve prediction of first-ever cardiovascular events.

Circulating total bilirubin and risk of incident cardiovascular disease in the general population.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of circulating total bilirubin and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a new prospective study and to determine whether adding information on total bilirubin values to established cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of CVD risk. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Circulating total bilirubin levels were measured at baseline in the PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease) prospective study of 7222 participants and 773 incident CVD events. Total bilirubin was log-linearly associated with CVD risk. Age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for CVD per 1-SD increase in loge total bilirubin was 0.82 (0.76 to 0.88; P<0.001), which was minimally attenuated to 0.89 (0.82 to 0.96; P=0.003) after further adjustment for established risk factors. In a meta-analysis of 12 population-based prospective studies involving 9378 incident CVD cases, the pooled multivariate-adjusted relative risk (95% confidence interval) for CVD was 0.93 (0.90 to 0.97; P<0.001) per 1-SD increase in total bilirubin levels. The corresponding pooled risks for coronary heart disease and stroke were 0.95 (0.92 to 0.99; P=0.018) and 0.93 (0.88 to 0.98; P=0.006), respectively. Addition of information on total bilirubin to a CVD risk prediction model containing established risk factors was associated with a C-index change of 0.0013 (-0.0004 to 0.0029; P=0.13). CONCLUSIONS: There is a log-linear inverse association between circulating total bilirubin level and CVD risk, which is independent of established risk factors. Nonetheless, inclusion of total bilirubin in the standard established risk factors panel provides no significant improvement in CVD risk prediction.

Twenty-four hour urinary urea excretion and 9-year risk of hypertension: the PREVEND study.

OBJECTIVES: It is not yet clear whether dietary protein could help maintaining a healthy blood pressure (BP). We investigated the association between total protein intake, estimated from 24-h urinary urea excretion, and incident hypertension in Dutch men and women. METHODS: We analyzed data of 3997 men and women (aged 28-75 years) who participated in the Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease (PREVEND) study, a prospective cohort study. Urea excretion was assessed in two consecutive 24-h urine collections at baseline and approximately 4 years later, from which total protein intake was estimated using the Maroni method. Participants were followed for 9 years for hypertension incidence, defined as BP at least 140/90 mmHg or initiation of antihypertensive medication. Hazard ratios (HR) were obtained in sex-specific quintiles of protein intake using time-dependent Cox regression, adjusted for age, sex, BMI, smoking, alcohol use, and 24-h urinary excretions of sodium and potassium. RESULTS: Baseline BP was on average 119/70 mmHg and 976 participants developed hypertension during follow-up. Mean protein intake (in g/kg ideal body weight) was 1.18 ±â€Š0.26 for men and 1.12 ±â€Š0.25 for women. Estimated protein intake was nonlinearly inversely associated with incident hypertension in the fully adjusted model, with nonsignificant HR of 0.77, 0.75, 0.82, and 0.83 in consecutive quintiles compared with the lowest quintile (P-trend: 0.52). CONCLUSION: Protein intake, as assessed by urinary urea excretion, was not significantly associated with 9-year hypertension incidence in Dutch men and women.

Urinary vitamin D binding protein: a potential novel marker of renal interstitial inflammation and fibrosis.

Non-invasive tubulointerstitial damage markers may allow better titration and monitoring of renoprotective therapy. We investigated the value of urinary vitamin D binding protein excretion (uVDBP) as a tubulointerstitial inflammation and fibrosis marker in adriamycin rats, and tested whether uVDBP parallels renal damage and responds to therapy intensification in humans. In adriamycin (ADR) rats, uVDBP was strongly elevated vs controls (CON) already 6 wks after nephrosis induction (ADR: 727±674 [mean±SD] vs CON: 9±12 µg/d, p<0.01), i.e. before onset of pre-fibrotic and inflammatory tubulointerstitial damage, and at all following 6-wk time points until end of follow up at 30 wks (ADR: 1403±1026 vs CON: 206±132 µg/d, p<0.01). In multivariate regression analysis, uVDBP was associated with tubulointerstitial macrophage accumulation (standardized beta = 0.47, p = 0.01) and collagen III expression (standardized beta = 0.44, p = 0.02) independently of albuminuria. In humans, uVDBP was increased in 100 microalbuminuric subjects (44±93 µg/d) and in 47 CKD patients with overt proteinuria (9.2±13.0 mg/d) compared to 100 normoalbuminuric subjects (12±12 µg/d, p<0.001). In CKD patients, uVDBP responded to intensification of renoprotective therapy (ACEi+liberal sodium: 9.2±13.0 mg/d vs dual RAAS blockade+low sodium: 2747±4013, p<0.001), but remained still >100-fold increased during maximal therapy vs normoalbuminurics (p<0.001), consistent with persisting tubulointerstitial damage. UVDBP was associated with tubular and inflammatory damage markers KIM-1 (standardized beta = 0.52, p<0.001), beta-2-microglobuline (st.beta = 0.45, p<0.001), cystatin C (st.beta = 0.40, p<0.001), MCP-1 (st.beta = 0.31, p<0.001) and NGAL (st.beta = 0.20, p = 0.005), independently of albuminuria. UVDBP may be a novel urinary biomarker of tubulointerstitial damage. Prospectively designed studies are required to validate our findings and confirm its relevance in the clinical setting.

Screening for chronic kidney disease can be of help to prevent atherosclerotic end-organ damage.

Atherosclerotic damage to the kidney is one of the most prevalent causes of chronic kidney disease and ultimately kidney failure. It frequently coincides with atherosclerotic damage to the heart, the brain and the lower extremities. In fact, the severity of the damage in the various end organs runs in parallel. As damage to the kidney is easy to measure by monitoring albuminuria and eGFR, and as the early phases of kidney damage frequently precede the alarming symptomatology in the heart, brain and peripheral vasculature, we argue that the nephrologist should consider taking the lead in better organizing early detection and management of CKD. The nephrologist can guide the general practitioner and general health care workers to offer better preventive care to the subjects at risk of progressive atherosclerotic end-organ damage.

Influence of urine creatinine on the relationship between the albumin-to-creatinine ratio and cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In the albumin-to-creatinine ratio (spot-ACR), urine creatinine corrects for tonicity but also reflects muscle mass. Low muscle mass is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We hypothesized that the spot-ACR would be higher in women, lower-weight persons, and older individuals, independent of timed urine albumin excretion (24hr-UAE), and accordingly, that spot-ACR would be more strongly associated with CVD events than 24hr-UAE in these subgroups. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & METHODS: 2627 PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease) participants with 24hr-UAE <30 mg/d were followed for CVD events for 11 years. Cox regression evaluated associations of spot-ACR and 24hr-UAE with CVD events by sex, weight, and age. RESULTS: Female sex (26%), lower weight (2% per 5 kg), and older age (4% per 5 years) were associated with higher spot-ACR independent of 24hr-UAE (P<0.001). Spot urine albumin concentration (hazard ratio [HR], 1.26 per ln-SD higher) and 1/spot urine creatinine concentration (HR, 1.16 per ln-SD higher) were associated with CVD events. Spot-ACR was more strongly associated with CVD events than either component of the ratio (HR, 1.41 per ln-SD higher). Associations of spot-ACR ≥10 mg/g versus less (HR, 2.33) and 24hr-UAE ≥10 mg/d versus less (HR, 2.09) with CVD events were similar, and there were no significant differences across subgroups (P for interactions >0.06). CONCLUSIONS: In community-living individuals with 24hr-UAE <30 mg/d, spot-ACR is higher in women, older persons, and lower-weight persons, independent of 24hr-UAE. Low spot urine creatinine is associated with CVD risk, but high urine albumin is a stronger determinant of the association of spot-ACR with CVD than is low urine creatinine.

Do albuminuria and hs-CRP add to the International Diabetes Federation definition of the metabolic syndrome in predicting outcome?

BACKGROUND: To investigate the added value of elevated urinary albumin excretion (UAE) and high high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) in predicting new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in addition to the present metabolic syndrome (MetS) defining criteria. METHODS: The PREVEND Study is a prospective population-based cohort study in the Netherlands, including 8592 participants. The MetS was defined according to the 2004 International Diabetes Federation criteria, elevated UAE as albuminuria ≥ 30 mg/24 h and high hs-CRP as ≥ 3 mg/L. RESULTS: At follow-up, subjects without MetS when compared to subjects with MetS had a lower incidence of T2DM, CVD as well as CKD (2.5 versus 15.5; 4.1 versus 10.3 and 5.8 versus 11.2%, all P < 0.001). In subjects with MetS, the incidence of all three outcomes was higher among subjects with elevated albuminuria versus subjects with normoalbuminuria (all P < 0.01). The incidence of all outcomes was also higher among subjects with high hs-CRP versus subjects without elevated hs-CRP but only significant for CKD (P = 0.002). Multivariate analysis including elevated UAE, hs-CRP and the variables defining the MetS showed that elevated albuminuria was independently associated with the risk for new-onset T2DM, CVD and CKD, whereas high hs-CRP was only independently associated with new-onset CVD and CKD. CONCLUSION: Our data show that elevated UAE has added value to the present MetS defining variables in predicting new-onset T2DM, CVD and CKD, whereas hs-CRP adds to predicting new-onset CVD and CKD, but not T2DM.