PREDICT identifies precipitating events associated with the clinical course of acutely decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis may present without acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) (AD-No ACLF), or with ACLF (AD-ACLF), defined by organ failure(s). Herein, we aimed to analyze and characterize the precipitants leading to both of these AD phenotypes. METHODS: The multicenter, prospective, observational PREDICT study (NCT03056612) included 1,273 non-electively hospitalized patients with AD (No ACLF = 1,071; ACLF = 202). Medical history, clinical data and laboratory data were collected at enrolment and during 90-day follow-up, with particular attention given to the following characteristics of precipitants: induction of organ dysfunction or failure, systemic inflammation, chronology, intensity, and relationship to outcome. RESULTS: Among various clinical events, 4 distinct events were precipitants consistently related to AD: proven bacterial infections, severe alcoholic hepatitis, gastrointestinal bleeding with shock and toxic encephalopathy. Among patients with precipitants in the AD-No ACLF cohort and the AD-ACLF cohort (38% and 71%, respectively), almost all (96% and 97%, respectively) showed proven bacterial infection and severe alcoholic hepatitis, either alone or in combination with other events. Survival was similar in patients with proven bacterial infections or severe alcoholic hepatitis in both AD phenotypes. The number of precipitants was associated with significantly increased 90-day mortality and was paralleled by increasing levels of surrogates for systemic inflammation. Importantly, adequate first-line antibiotic treatment of proven bacterial infections was associated with a lower ACLF development rate and lower 90-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified precipitants that are significantly associated with a distinct clinical course and prognosis in patients with AD. Specific preventive and therapeutic strategies targeting these events may improve outcomes in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. LAY SUMMARY: Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis is characterized by a rapid deterioration in patient health. Herein, we aimed to analyze the precipitating events that cause AD in patients with cirrhosis. Proven bacterial infections and severe alcoholic hepatitis, either alone or in combination, accounted for almost all (96-97%) cases of AD and acute-on-chronic liver failure. Whilst the type of precipitant was not associated with mortality, the number of precipitant(s) was. This study identified precipitants that are significantly associated with a distinct clinical course and prognosis of patients with AD. Specific preventive and therapeutic strategies targeting these events may improve patient outcomes.

A Double-Blind, Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial of Probiotic Lactobacillus casei Shirota in Stable Cirrhotic Patients.

Background: In cirrhosis, a pathological gut microbiome has been linked with immune dysfunction. A pilot study of probiotic Lactobacillus casei Shirota (LcS) in alcoholic cirrhosis demonstrated significant improvement in neutrophil function. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of LcS on neutrophil function and significant infection rates in patients with cirrhosis. Methods: 92 cirrhotic patients (Child-Pugh score ≤10) were randomized to receive LcS or placebo, three times daily for six months. Primary end-points were incidence of significant infection and neutrophil function. Secondary end-points were cytokine profile, endotoxin, bacterial DNA positivity, intestinal permeability and quality of life. Results: Rates of infection, decompensation or neutrophil function did not differ between placebo and probiotic groups. LcS significantly reduced plasma monocyte chemotactic protein-1 and, on subgroup analysis, plasma interleukin-1ß (alcoholic cirrhosis), interleukin-17a and macrophage inflammatory protein-1ß (non-alcoholic cirrhosis), compared with placebo. No significant differences in intestinal permeability, bacterial translocation or metabolomic profile were observed. Conclusion: LcS supplementation in patients with early cirrhosis is safe. Although no significant infections were observed in either group, LcS improved cytokine profile towards an anti-inflammatory phenotype, an effect which appears to be independent of bacterial translocation.

Dynamic Prognostication in Critically Ill Cirrhotic Patients With Multiorgan Failure in ICUs in Europe and North America: A Multicenter Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute on Chronic Liver Failure score in acute on chronic liver failure patients admitted to ICUs from different global regions and compare discrimination ability with previously published scores. DESIGN: Retrospective pooled analysis. SETTING: Academic ICUs in Canada (Edmonton, Vancouver) and Europe (Paris, Barcelona, Chronic liver failure/Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Cirrhosis [CANONIC] study). PATIENTS: Sample of analysis of 867 cirrhotic patients with acute on chronic liver failure admitted to ICU. Cumulative incidence functions of death were estimated by acute on chronic liver failure grade at admission and at day 3. Survival discrimination abilities of Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute on Chronic Liver Failure, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores were compared. INTERVENTIONS: ICU admission for organ support. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: At admission 169 subjects (19%) had acute on chronic liver failure 1, 302 (35%) acute on chronic liver failure 2, and 396 (46%) had acute on chronic liver failure 3 with 90-mortality rates of 33%, 40%, and 74%, respectively (p < 0.001). At admission, Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute on Chronic Liver Failure demonstrated superior discrimination at 90 days compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (n = 532; concordance index 0.67 vs 0.62; p = 0.0027) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (n = 666; 0.68 vs 0.64; p = 0.0035), but not Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (n = 845; 0.68 vs 0.67; p = 0.3). A Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute on Chronic Liver Failure score greater than 70 at admission or on day 3 was associated with 90-day mortality rates of approximately 90%. Ninety-day mortality in grade 3 acute on chronic liver failure patients at admission who demonstrated improvement by day 3 was 40% (vs 79% in patients who did not). CONCLUSIONS: The Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute on Chronic Liver Failure demonstrated better discrimination at day 28 and day 90 compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Child-Turcotte-Pugh. Patients who demonstrated clinical improvement post-ICU admission (e.g., acute on chronic liver failure 3 to 1 or 2) at day 3 had better outcomes than those who did not. In high-risk ICU patients (Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute on Chronic Liver Failure > 70), decisions regarding transition to palliation should be explored between patient families and the ICU providers after a short trial of therapy.