Challenging the current hypothesis that thrombosis is responsible for the post-COVID-19 condition.

People with the post-COVID-19 condition suffer symptoms that persist beyond 12 weeks following acute COVID-19 infection. Fatigue, shortness of breath, and cognitive dysfunction ("brain fog") are common. Scientists, clinicians, and patients debate the pathophysiology. One pathophysiological hypothesis is that prothrombotic changes associated with acute COVID-19 persist, causing clots that lead to symptoms. This theory, arising from a research team in South Africa and supported by a paper in Nature Medicine, has been widely disseminated on social media and entered the public narrative as a cause of the post-COVID-19 condition. We describe the development of this theory, examine the findings of a Cochrane review that critically appraises the "microclot" beliefs, and critically appraise the influential study relating clotting biomarkers to cognitive deficits. We conclude the inferences for the hypothesis are not based on evidence, unlicensed use of antithrombotic medication is not justified, and apheresis should not be considered outside of a well-designed clinical trial.

Prognosis of patients with post-Covid-19 condition: Prospective cohort cluster analysis at one year.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to identify clinically relevant clusters among patients with post-Covid-19 condition (PCC) and assess prognosis overall and within clusters. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of patients with PCC attending a rehabilitation clinic. We monitored patient reported outcome measures (PROMs): EuroHIS quality of life and symptoms. Unsupervised hierarchical cluster analyses were performed to identify clusters of patients with different quantity of symptoms, and symptoms presenting together. Preliminary findings on symptom prevalence and quality of life at 12 months are reported. RESULTS: Among 409 patients, 70.4% were women, with an average baseline of 20.3 (SD 6.8) symptoms. Three clusters emerged based on symptom quantity, labelled by the average number of symptoms at baseline: Cluster-11 (17% of all patients), Cluster-17 (35%), and Cluster-25 (48%). Multinomial logistic regression showed female sex, multiple comorbidities predicting more symptoms. Four symptom-based clusters were defined: fatigue and cognitive complaints; pain, trouble sleeping, palpitations and other symptoms; gastrointestinal symptoms; and emotion-related symptoms. Linear regression models showed that female sex, multiple comorbidities, anxiety, use of antidepressants, BMI and smoking were among the determinants of symptom clusters. In 12-month follow-up, symptom count decreased, and quality of life improved across all clusters, with 9% having good quality of life at baseline and 33% at 12 months. CONCLUSION: Four patient clusters based on symptoms were identified in the PCC cohort. Prognosis was favorable across all clusters, with symptom reduction and improved quality of life observed. Female sex, comorbidities, BMI, and mental-health related variables predicted higher symptom burden, suggesting multifactorial origins of PCC.

Use of qualitative research in World Health Organisation guidelines: a document analysis.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines depend on effect estimates, usually derived from randomised controlled trials, to inform their decisions. Qualitative research evidence may improve decisions made but where in the process and the methods to do this have not been so clearly established. We sought to describe and appraise how qualitative research has been used to inform World Heath Organization guidance since 2020. METHODS: We conducted a document analysis of WHO guidelines from 2020 to 2022. We purposely sampled guidelines on the topics of maternal and newborn health (MANH) and infectious diseases, as most of the qualitative synthesis to date has been conducted on these topics, likely representing the 'best case' scenario. We searched the in-built repository feature of the WHO website and used standardised search terms to identify qualitative reporting. Using deductive frameworks, we described how qualitative evidence was used to inform guidelines and appraised the standards of this use. RESULTS: Of the 29 guidelines, over half used qualitative research to help guide decisions (18/29). A total of 8 of these used qualitative research to inform the guideline scope, all 18 to inform recommendations, and 1 to inform implementation considerations. All guidelines drew on qualitative evidence syntheses (QES), and five further supplemented this with primary qualitative research. Qualitative findings reported in guidelines were typically descriptive, identifying people's perception of the benefits and harms of interventions or logistical barriers and facilitators to programme success. No guideline provided transparent reporting of how qualitative research was interpreted and weighed used alongside other evidence when informing decisions, and only one guideline reported the inclusion of qualitative methods experts on the panel. Only a few guidelines contextualised their recommendations by indicating which populations and settings qualitative findings could be applied. CONCLUSIONS: Qualitative research frequently informed WHO guideline decisions particularly in the field of MANH. However, the process often lacked transparency. We identified unmet potential in informing implementation considerations and contextualisation of the recommendations. Use in these areas needs further methods development.

Chronic fatigue syndromes: real illnesses that people can recover from.

The 'Oslo Chronic Fatigue Consortium' consists of researchers and clinicians who question the current narrative that chronic fatigue syndromes, including post-covid conditions, are incurable diseases. Instead, we propose an alternative view, based on research, which offers more hope to patients. Whilst we regard the symptoms of these conditions as real, we propose that they are more likely to reflect the brain's response to a range of biological, psychological, and social factors, rather than a specific disease process. Possible causes include persistent activation of the neurobiological stress response, accompanied by associated changes in immunological, hormonal, cognitive and behavioural domains. We further propose that the symptoms are more likely to persist if they are perceived as threatening, and all activities that are perceived to worsen them are avoided. We also question the idea that the best way to cope with the illness is by prolonged rest, social isolation, and sensory deprivation.Instead, we propose that recovery is often possible if patients are helped to adopt a less threatening understanding of their symptoms and are supported in a gradual return to normal activities. Finally, we call for a much more open and constructive dialogue about these conditions. This dialogue should include a wider range of views, including those of patients who have recovered from them.

Anomalies in the review process and interpretation of the evidence in the NICE guideline for chronic fatigue syndrome and myalgic encephalomyelitis.

Chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis (CFS/ME) is a disabling long-term condition of unknown cause. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) published a guideline in 2021 that highlighted the seriousness of the condition, but also recommended that graded exercise therapy (GET) should not be used and cognitive-behavioural therapy should only be used to manage symptoms and reduce distress, not to aid recovery. This U-turn in recommendations from the previous 2007 guideline is controversial.We suggest that the controversy stems from anomalies in both processing and interpretation of the evidence by the NICE committee. The committee: (1) created a new definition of CFS/ME, which 'downgraded' the certainty of trial evidence; (2) omitted data from standard trial end points used to assess efficacy; (3) discounted trial data when assessing treatment harm in favour of lower quality surveys and qualitative studies; (4) minimised the importance of fatigue as an outcome; (5) did not use accepted practices to synthesise trial evidence adequately using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations trial evidence); (6) interpreted GET as mandating fixed increments of change when trials defined it as collaborative, negotiated and symptom dependent; (7) deviated from NICE recommendations of rehabilitation for related conditions, such as chronic primary pain and (8) recommended an energy management approach in the absence of supportive research evidence.We conclude that the dissonance between this and the previous guideline was the result of deviating from usual scientific standards of the NICE process. The consequences of this are that patients may be denied helpful treatments and therefore risk persistent ill health and disability.

Plasmapheresis to remove amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles for treating the post-COVID-19 condition.

BACKGROUND: The post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) consists of a wide array of symptoms including fatigue and impaired daily living. People seek a wide variety of approaches to help them recover. A new belief, arising from a few laboratory studies, is that 'microclots' cause the symptoms of PCC. This belief has been extended outside these studies, suggesting that to recover people need plasmapheresis (an expensive process where blood is filtered outside the body). We appraised the laboratory studies, and it was clear that the term 'microclots' is incorrect to describe the phenomenon being described. The particles are amyloid and include fibrin(ogen); amyloid is not a part of a thrombus which is a mix of fibrin mesh and platelets. Initial acute COVID-19 infection is associated with clotting abnormalities; this review concerns amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles in PCC only. We have reported here our appraisal of laboratory studies investigating the presence of amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles in PCC, and of evidence that plasmapheresis may be an effective therapy to remove amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles for treating PCC. OBJECTIVES: Laboratory studies review To summarize and appraise the research reports on amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles related to PCC. Randomized controlled trials review To assess the evidence of the safety and efficacy of plasmapheresis to remove amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles in individuals with PCC from randomized controlled trials. SEARCH METHODS: Laboratory studies review We searched for all relevant laboratory studies up to 27 October 2022 using a comprehensive search strategy which included the search terms 'COVID', 'amyloid', 'fibrin', 'fibrinogen'. Randomized controlled trials review We searched the following databases on 21 October 2022: Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register; MEDLINE (Ovid); Embase (Ovid); and BIOSIS Previews (Web of Science). We also searched the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and ClinicalTrials.gov for trials in progress. SELECTION CRITERIA: Laboratory studies review Laboratory studies that investigate the presence of amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles in plasma samples from patients with PCC were eligible. This included studies with or without controls. Randomized controlled trials review Studies were eligible if they were of randomized controlled design and investigated the effectiveness or safety of plasmapheresis for removing amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles for treating PCC. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors applied study inclusion criteria to identify eligible studies and extracted data. Laboratory studies review We assessed the risk of bias of included studies using pre-developed methods for laboratory studies. We planned to perform synthesis without meta-analysis (SWiM) as described in our protocol. Randomized controlled trials review We planned that if we identified any eligible studies, we would assess risk of bias and report results with 95% confidence intervals. The primary outcome was recovery, measured using the Post-COVID-19 Functional Status Scale (absence of symptoms related to the illness, ability to do usual daily activities, and a return to a previous state of health and mind). MAIN RESULTS: Laboratory studies review We identified five laboratory studies. Amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles were identified in participants across all studies, including those with PCC, healthy individuals, and those with diabetes. The results of three studies were based on visual images of amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles, which did not quantify the amount or size of the particles identified. Formal risk of bias assessment showed concerns in how the studies were conducted and reported. This means the results were insufficient to support the belief that amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles are associated with PCC, or to determine whether there is a difference in the amount or size of amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles in the plasma of people with PCC compared to healthy controls. Randomized controlled trials review We identified no trials meeting our inclusion criteria. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of reliable research showing that amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles contribute to the pathophysiology of PCC, there is no rationale for plasmapheresis to remove amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles in PCC. Plasmapheresis for this indication should not be used outside the context of a well-conducted randomized controlled trial.

Patient adherence to tuberculosis treatment in the Indian subcontinent: systematic review and meta-synthesis of qualitative research.

OBJECTIVES: How well patients adhere to their tuberculosis (TB) treatment influences their recovery and development of drug resistance, but influences on adherence are multiple and often competing. We synthesised qualitative studies from our setting in the Indian subcontinent to understand the dimensions and dynamics involved to help inform service provision. DESIGN: Qualitative synthesis comprising inductive coding, thematic analysis and forming a conceptual framework. DATA SOURCES: Medline (OVID), Embase (OVID), CINAHL (EBSCOHost), PsycINFO (EBSCOHost), Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane Library and Epistemonikos were databases searched on 26 March 2020 for studies published since 1 January 2000. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: We included reports in English from the Indian subcontinent that used qualitative or mixed-methodology designs and reported findings around adherence to TB treatment. Full texts meeting eligibility were sampled based on 'thickness' (the richness of the qualitative data reported). DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two reviewers used standardised methods to screen abstracts and code. Included studies were assessed for reliability and quality using a standard tool. Qualitative synthesis was performed by inductive coding, thematic analysis and developing conceptual framework. RESULTS: Of 1729 abstracts screened from initial search, 59 were shortlisted for full-text review. Twenty-four studies that qualified as 'thick' were included in the synthesis. Studies were set in India (12), Pakistan (6), Nepal (3), Bangladesh (1) or in two or more of these countries (2). Of the 24 studies, all but one included people who were taking TB treatment (1 study included only healthcare providers), and 17 included healthcare workers, community members or both.We identified three themes: (1) personal influences on the people with TB include interconnections between their social role in the family unit, their own priorities in day-to-day living and their experience to date with the disease; (2) adherence is profoundly influenced by how individual healthcare providers interact with patients on treatment and address their needs; (3) adherence is influenced across communities by structural, social, economic and cultural factors related to treatment. CONCLUSION: Staff in TB programmes require an understanding of the various competing influences on individuals undergoing treatment. Programmes need to have more flexible and people-centred approaches to service provision in order to achieve adherence, and thus improve treatment outcomes. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020171409.

Identifying and managing problematic trials: A research integrity assessment tool for randomized controlled trials in evidence synthesis.

Evidence synthesis findings depend on the assumption that the included studies follow good clinical practice and results are not fabricated or false. Studies which are problematic due to scientific misconduct, poor research practice, or honest error may distort evidence synthesis findings. Authors of evidence synthesis need transparent mechanisms to identify and manage problematic studies to avoid misleading findings. As evidence synthesis authors of the Cochrane COVID-19 review on ivermectin, we identified many problematic studies in terms of research integrity and regulatory compliance. Through iterative discussion, we developed a research integrity assessment (RIA) tool for randomized controlled trials for the update of this Cochrane review. In this paper, we explain the rationale and application of the RIA tool in this case study. RIA assesses six study criteria: study retraction, prospective trial registration, adequate ethics approval, author group, plausibility of methods (e.g., randomization), and plausibility of study results. RIA was used in the Cochrane review as part of the eligibility check during screening of potentially eligible studies. Problematic studies were excluded and studies with open questions were held in awaiting classification until clarified. RIA decisions were made independently by two authors and reported transparently. Using the RIA tool resulted in the exclusion of >40% of studies in the first update of the review. RIA is a complementary tool prior to assessing "Risk of Bias" aiming to establish the integrity and authenticity of studies. RIA provides a platform for urgent development of a standard approach to identifying and managing problematic studies.

Should all pregnant women take calcium supplements in Nepal? GRADE evidence to policy assessment.

BACKGROUND: The WHO recommends oral calcium supplementation (1.5-2.0 g) in pregnant women to reduce the risk of pre-eclampsia living in areas with low dietary calcium intake. Although maternal mortality is high in Nepal and eclampsia causes at least 20% of maternal deaths, implementing WHO recommendations would be a major undertaking. OBJECTIVE: This review aimed to assess whether the current evidence supports the blanket supplementation of calcium to prevent pre-eclampsia among pregnant women in Nepal. METHODS: We used a structured approach to appraise the evidence for calcium supplementation in Nepal. We identified what may influence the impact of calcium supplementation in Nepal and conducted a situation analysis in the country covering maternal mortality, pre-eclampsia occurrence, and existing government policy provisions for supplementation. We also consulted with experts and government officials to explore their perspectives and experience on supplementation. We then used AMSTAR (A MeaSurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews) to appraise the Cochrane Systematic Review of calcium supplementation. Finally, we used these data in a GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation)-Evidence to Decision framework to reach a policy recommendation. RESULTS: Our assessment of the Cochrane Review showed that the recommendation made by the WHO is based on weak evidence and trial findings that are not consistent between studies. The Cochrane Review found low certainty of the evidence for benefit (reduction in pre-eclampsia and maternal mortality). Conversely, there is a high certainty of the evidence of undesirable effects (HELLP [haemolysis, elevated liver enzymes and low platelets] syndrome) although this is uncommon. The likely absolute reduction in maternal deaths projected to Nepal was estimated to be low, while the implementation costs were high. Stakeholders also raised several concerns regarding feasibility, acceptability, appropriate dosing, and risk communication. CONCLUSIONS: This review concludes that the blanket supplementation of calcium cannot be recommended in Nepal. A better approach may be to identify high-risk pregnant women and manage their antenatal visits and delivery to prevent mortality from pre-eclampsia.

Is routine Vitamin A supplementation still justified for children in Nepal? Trial synthesis findings applied to Nepal national mortality estimates.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization has recommended Vitamin A supplementation for children in low- and middle-income countries for many years to reduce child mortality. Nepal still practices routine Vitamin A supplementation. We examined the potential current impact of these programs using national data in Nepal combined with an update of the mortality effect estimate from a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. METHODS: We used the 2017 Cochrane review as a template for an updated meta-analysis. We conducted fresh searches, re-applied the inclusion criteria, re-extracted the data for mortality and constructed a summary of findings table using GRADE. We applied the best estimate of the effect obtained from the trials to the national statistics of the country to estimate the impact of supplementation on under-five mortality in Nepal. RESULTS: The effect estimates from well-concealed trials gave a 9% reduction in mortality (Risk Ratio: 0.91, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.97, 6 trials; 1,046,829 participants; low certainty evidence). The funnel plot suggested publication bias, and a meta-analysis of trials published since 2000 gave a smaller effect estimate (Risk Ratio: 0.96, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.03, 2 trials, 1,007,587 participants), with the DEVTA trial contributing 55.1 per cent to this estimate. Applying the estimate from well-concealed trials to Nepal's under-five mortality rate, there may be a reduction in mortality, and this is small from 28 to 25 per 1000 live births; 3 fewer deaths (95% CI 1 to 4 fewer) for every 1000 children supplemented. CONCLUSIONS: Vitamin A supplementation may only result in a quantitatively unimportant reduction in child mortality. Stopping blanket supplementation seems reasonable given these data.

Suicide rates and suicidal behaviour in displaced people: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Refugees, and other forcibly displaced people, face mental distress and may be disproportionately affected by risk factors for suicide. Little is known about suicidal behaviour in these highly mobile populations because collecting timely, relevant, and reliable data is challenging. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A systematic review was performed to identify studies of any design reporting on suicide, suicide attempts, or suicidal ideation among populations of displaced people. A sensitive electronic database search was performed in August 2020, and all retrieved studies were screened for relevance by two authors. Studies were categorised by the population being evaluated: refugees granted asylum, refugees living in temporary camps, asylum seekers, or internally displaced people. We distinguished between whether the sampling procedure in the studies was likely to be representative, or the sample examined a specific non-representative subgroup of displaced people (such as those already diagnosed with mental illness). Data on the rates of suicide or the prevalence of suicide attempts or suicidal ideation were extracted by one reviewer and verified by a second reviewer from each study and converted to common metrics. After screening 4347 articles, 87 reports of 77 unique studies were included. Of these, 53 were studies in representative samples, and 24 were based on samples of specific target populations. Most studies were conducted in high-income countries, and the most studied population subgroup was refugees granted asylum. There was substantial heterogeneity across data sources and measurement instruments utilised. Sample sizes of displaced people ranged from 33 to 196,941 in studies using general samples. Suicide rates varied considerably, from 4 to 290 per 100,000 person-years across studies. Only 8 studies were identified that compared suicide rates with the host population. The prevalence of suicide attempts ranged from 0.14% to 15.1% across all studies and varied according to the prevalence period evaluated. Suicidal ideation prevalence varied from 0.17% to 70.6% across studies. Among refugees granted asylum, there was evidence of a lower risk of suicide compared with the host population in 4 of 5 studies. In contrast, in asylum seekers there was evidence of a higher suicide risk in 2 of 3 studies, and of a higher risk of suicidal ideation among refugees living in camps in 2 of 3 studies compared to host populations. CONCLUSION: While multiple studies overall have been published in the literature on this topic, the evidence base is still sparse for refugees in camps, asylum seekers, and internally displaced people. Less than half of the included studies reported on suicide or suicide attempt outcomes, with most reporting on suicidal ideation. International research networks could usefully define criteria, definitions, and study designs to help standardise and facilitate more research in this important area. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42019137242.

Community views on mass drug administration for filariasis: a qualitative evidence synthesis.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends mass drug administration (MDA), giving a drug at regular intervals to a whole population, as part of the strategy for several disease control programmes in low- and middle-income countries. MDA is currently WHO policy for areas endemic with lymphatic filariasis, which is a parasitic disease that can result in swollen limbs and disability. The success depends on communities adhering to the drugs given, and this will be influenced by the perception of the drug, the programme, and those delivering it.  OBJECTIVES: To synthesize qualitative research evidence about community experience with, and understanding and perception of, MDA programmes for lymphatic filariasis. To explore whether programme design and delivery influence the community experience identified in the analysis. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and seven other databases up to 8 April 2021, together with reference checking, citation searching, and contact with study authors to identify additional studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: This review synthesized qualitative research and mixed-methods studies when it was possible to extract qualitative data. Eligible studies explored community experiences, perceptions, or attitudes towards MDA programmes for lymphatic filariasis in any country, conducted between 2000 and 2019.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We extracted data on study design including: authors, aims, participants, methods, and qualitative data collection methods. We also described programme delivery factors including: country, urban or rural setting, endemicity, drug regimen, rounds of MDA received at the time of the study, who delivered the drugs, how the drugs were delivered, use of health education, and sensitization and adherence monitoring. We conducted a thematic analysis and developed codes inductively using ATLAS.ti software. We examined codes for underlying ideas, connections, and interpretations and, from this, generated analytical themes. We assessed the confidence in the findings using the GRADE-CERQual approach, and produced a conceptual model to display our findings.  MAIN RESULTS: From 902 results identified in the search, 29 studies met our inclusion criteria. The studies covered a broad range of countries in Africa, South-East Asia, and South America, and explored the views and experiences of community members and community drug distributors in low-income countries endemic for lymphatic filariasis. Four themes emerged. People weigh up benefits and harms before participating. People understand the potential benefits in terms of relief of suffering, stigma, and avoiding costs (high confidence); however, these theoretical benefits do not always mesh with their experiences (high confidence). In particular, adverse effects are frightening and unwelcome (high confidence); and these effects are amplified through rumour and social media (moderate confidence). Many people are suspicious of MDA programmes. When people lack a scientific explanation for the programme and their experiences of it, they often develop social explanations instead. These are largely shaped on the historical backdrop and level of trust people have in relevant authority figures (high confidence), although some have unwavering faith in their government and, by extension, the programme (moderate confidence). Programmes expect compliance, and this can become coercive and blaming. Health workers and community members stigmatize non-compliance, which can become coercive (moderate confidence), so communities may appear to comply publicly, but privately reject treatment (moderate confidence). Community distributors are often not respected or valued. They have little authority (moderate confidence), and the behaviour of some distributors damages the MDA programme's reputation (high confidence). Communities want information about programmes to help make decisions about participation, but drug distributors are not sufficiently informed, or skilled in this communication (high confidence). We intended to assess whether programme designs influenced communities' perceptions of the programme and decision to adhere but were unable to do so as few studies adequately reported the design and implementation of the local programme. We have moderate to high confidence in the evidence contributing to the review themes and subthemes. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Adherence with MDA for filariasis is influenced by individual direct experience of benefit and harm; social influences in the community; political influences and their relationship to government; and historical influences. Fear of adverse effects was frequently described and this appears to be particularly important for communities. When views were negative, we were surprised by the strength of feeling expressed. Enthusiasm for these schemes as a strategy in global policy needs debate in the light of these findings.

GRADE guidance 24 optimizing the integration of randomized and non-randomized studies of interventions in evidence syntheses and health guidelines.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: This is the 24th in the ongoing series of articles describing the GRADE approach for assessing the certainty of a body of evidence in systematic reviews and health technology assessments and how to move from evidence to recommendations in guidelines. METHODS: Guideline developers and authors of systematic reviews and other evidence syntheses use randomized controlled studies (RCTs) and non-randomized studies of interventions (NRSI) as sources of evidence for questions about health interventions. RCTs with low risk of bias are the most trustworthy source of evidence for estimating relative effects of interventions because of protection against confounding and other biases. However, in several instances, NRSI can still provide valuable information as complementary, sequential, or replacement evidence for RCTs. RESULTS: In this article we offer guidance on the decision regarding when to search for and include either or both types of studies in systematic reviews to inform health recommendations. CONCLUSION: This work aims to help methodologists in review teams, technology assessors, guideline panelists, and anyone conducting evidence syntheses using GRADE.

Testing for saturation in qualitative evidence syntheses: An update of HIV adherence in Africa.

BACKGROUND: A systematic review of randomised trials may be conclusive signalling no further research is needed; or identify gaps requiring further research that may then be included in review updates. In qualitative evidence synthesis (QES), the rationale, triggers, and methods for updating are less clear cut. We updated a QES on adherence to anti-retroviral treatment to examine if thematic saturation renders additional research redundant. METHODS: We adopted the original review search strategy and eligibility criteria to identify studies in the subsequent three years. We assessed studies for conceptual detail, categorised as 'rich' or 'sparse', coding the rich studies. We sought new codes, and appraised whether findings confirmed, extended, enriched, or refuted existing themes. Finally, we examined if the analysis impacted on the original conceptual model. RESULTS: After screening 3895 articles, 301 studies met the inclusion criteria. Rich findings from Africa were available in 82 studies; 146 studies were sparse, contained no additional information on specific populations, and did not contribute to the analysis. New studies enriched our understanding on the relationship between external and internal factors influencing adherence, confirming, extending and enriching the existing themes. Despite careful evaluation of the new literature, we did not identify any new themes, and found no studies that refuted our theory. CONCLUSIONS: Updating an existing QES using the original question confirmed and sometimes enriched evidence within themes but made little or no substantive difference to the theory and overall findings of the original review. We propose this illustrates thematic saturation. We propose a thoughtful approach before embarking on a QES update, and our work underlines the importance of QES priority areas where further primary research may help, and areas where further studies may be redundant.

Plague Transmission from Corpses and Carcasses.

Knowing whether human corpses can transmit plague will inform policies for handling the bodies of those who have died of the disease. We analyzed the literature to evaluate risk for transmission of Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, from human corpses and animal carcasses. Because we could not find direct evidence of transmission, we described a transmission pathway and assessed the potential for transmission at each step. We examined 3 potential sources of infection: body fluids of living plague patients, infected corpses and carcasses, and body fluids of infected corpses. We concluded that pneumonic plague can be transmitted by intensive handling of the corpse or carcass, presumably through the inhalation of respiratory droplets, and that bubonic plague can be transmitted by blood-to-blood contact with the body fluids of a corpse or carcass. These findings should inform precautions taken by those handling the bodies of persons or animals that died of plague.

House modifications for preventing malaria.

BACKGROUND: Despite being preventable, malaria remains an important public health problem. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that overall progress in malaria control has plateaued for the first time since the turn of the century. Researchers and policymakers are therefore exploring alternative and supplementary malaria vector control tools. Research in 1900 indicated that modification of houses may be effective in reducing malaria: this is now being revisited, with new research now examining blocking house mosquito entry points or modifying house construction materials to reduce exposure of inhabitants to infectious bites. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of house modifications on malaria disease and transmission. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register; Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), published in the Cochrane Library; MEDLINE (PubMed); Embase (OVID); Centre for Agriculture and Bioscience International (CAB) Abstracts (Web of Science); and the Latin American and Caribbean Health Science Information database (LILACS), up to 1 November 2019. We also searched the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (www.who.int/ictrp/search/en/), ClinicalTrials.gov (www.clinicaltrials.gov), and the ISRCTN registry (www.isrctn.com/) to identify ongoing trials up to the same date. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials, including cluster-randomized controlled trials (cRCTs), cross-over studies, and stepped-wedge designs were eligible, as were quasi-experimental trials, including controlled before-and-after studies, controlled interrupted time series, and non-randomized cross-over studies. We only considered studies reporting epidemiological outcomes (malaria case incidence, malaria infection incidence or parasite prevalence). We also summarised qualitative studies conducted alongside included studies. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors selected eligible studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias. We used risk ratios (RR) to compare the effect of the intervention with the control for dichotomous data. For continuous data, we presented the mean difference; and for count and rate data, we used rate ratios. We presented all results with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We assessed the certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach. MAIN RESULTS: Six cRCTs met our inclusion criteria, all conducted in sub-Saharan Africa; three randomized by household, two by village, and one at the community level. All trials assessed screening of windows, doors, eaves, ceilings or any combination of these; this was either alone, or in combination with eave closure, roof modification or eave tube installation (a "lure and kill" device that reduces mosquito entry whilst maintaining some airflow). In two trials, the interventions were insecticide-based. In five trials, the researchers implemented the interventions. The community implemented the interventions in the sixth trial. At the time of writing the review, two of the six trials had published results, both of which compared screened houses (without insecticide) to unscreened houses. One trial in Ethiopia assessed screening of windows and doors. Another trial in the Gambia assessed full screening (screening of eaves, doors and windows), as well as screening of ceilings only. Screening may reduce clinical malaria incidence caused by Plasmodium falciparum (rate ratio 0.38, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.82; 1 trial, 184 participants, 219.3 person-years; low-certainty evidence; Ethiopian study). For malaria parasite prevalence, the point estimate, derived from The Gambia study, was smaller (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.17; 713 participants, 1 trial; low-certainty evidence), and showed an effect on anaemia (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.42, 0.89; 705 participants; 1 trial, moderate-certainty evidence). Screening may reduce the entomological inoculation rate (EIR): both trials showed lower estimates in the intervention arm. In the Gambian trial, there was a mean difference in EIR between the control houses and treatment houses ranging from 0.45 to 1.50 (CIs ranged from -0.46 to 2.41; low-certainty evidence), depending on the study year and treatment arm. The Ethiopian trial reported a mean difference in EIR of 4.57, favouring screening (95% CI 3.81 to 5.33; low-certainty evidence). Pooled analysis of the trials showed that individuals living in fully screened houses were slightly less likely to sleep under a bed net (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.09; 2 trials, 203 participants). In one trial, bed net usage was also lower in individuals living in houses with screened ceilings (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.95; 1 trial, 135 participants). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Based on the two trials published to date, there is some evidence that screening may reduce malaria transmission and malaria infection in people living in the house. The four trials awaiting publication are likely to enrich the current evidence base, and we will add these to this review when they become available.

Evidence synthesis workshops: moving from face-to-face to online learning.

Postgraduate training is moving from face-to-face workshops or courses to online learning to help increase access to knowledge, expertise and skills, and save the cost of face-to-face training. However, moving from face-to-face to online learning for many of us academics is intimidating, and appears even more difficult without the help of a team of technologists. In this paper, we describe our approach, our experiences and the lessons we learnt from converting a Primer in Systematic Reviews face-to-face workshop to a 6-week online course designed for healthcare professionals in Africa. We learnt that the team needs a balance of skills and experience, including technical know-how and content knowledge; that the learning strategies needed to achieve the learning objectives must match the content delivery. The online approach should result in both building knowledge and developing skills, and include interactive and participatory approaches. Finally, the design and delivery needs to keep in mind the limited and expensive internet access in some resource-poor settings in Africa.