An empirical confirmation of diversified bet hedging as a survival strategy in unpredictably varying environments.

Environmental change jeopardizes the survival of species from variable environments by making the occurrence of favorable conditions less predictable. For organisms with long-lived propagules (e.g., spores, eggs, or seeds), the theory of diversified bet hedging (DBH) predicts that delayed hatching over different growing seasons can help populations avoid extinction. Empirical observations in different organisms are consistent with DBH, but integrated tests that simultaneously validate the main theoretical assumptions and predictions are lacking. In this study, we combine field and multi-generational lab experiments to provide a complete test of DBH. Consistent with DBH predictions, resting egg clutches of the fairy shrimp Branchipodopsis wolfi, which inhabits rain-fed temporary rock pool environments with unpredictable inundations, hatched partially over a succession of inundations with identical hatching cues. Bet hedging was more common in populations from more unpredictable habitats where hatching fractions were lower. This differentiation in hatching strategies was preserved after two generations under common garden conditions, which implies intrinsic (epi-)genetic control of hatching. Finally, a demographic model confirmed that lower hatching fractions increase long-term population growth in unpredictable habitats. With this paper we propose a method to calculate probabilities of successful recruitment for organisms that use imperfect cues and show that this drives selection for variation in life history strategies as part of a DBH strategy.

Evolutionary and plastic responses of freshwater invertebrates to climate change: realized patterns and future potential.

We integrated the evidence for evolutionary and plastic trait changes in situ in response to climate change in freshwater invertebrates (aquatic insects and zooplankton). The synthesis on the trait changes in response to the expected reductions in hydroperiod and increases in salinity indicated little evidence for adaptive, plastic, and genetic trait changes and for local adaptation. With respect to responses to temperature, there are many studies on temporal trait changes in phenology and body size in the wild that are believed to be driven by temperature increases, but there is a general lack of rigorous demonstration whether these trait changes are genetically based, adaptive, and causally driven by climate change. Current proof for genetic trait changes under climate change in freshwater invertebrates stems from a limited set of common garden experiments replicated in time. Experimental thermal evolution experiments and common garden warming experiments associated with space-for-time substitutions along latitudinal gradients indicate that besides genetic changes, also phenotypic plasticity and evolution of plasticity are likely to contribute to the observed phenotypic changes under climate change in aquatic invertebrates. Apart from plastic and genetic thermal adjustments, also genetic photoperiod adjustments are widespread and may even dominate the observed phenological shifts.

Thermal genetic adaptation in the water flea Daphnia and its impact: an evolving metacommunity approach.

Genetic adaptation to temperature change can impact responses of populations and communities to global warming. Here we integrate previously published results on experimental evolution trials with follow-up experiments involving the water flea Daphnia as a model system. Our research shows (1) the capacity of natural populations of this species to genetically adapt to changes in temperature in a time span of months to years, (2) the context-dependence of these genetic changes, emphasizing the role of ecology and community composition on evolutionary responses to climatic change, and (3) the impact of micro-evolutionary changes on immigration success of preadapted genotypes. Our study involves (1) experimental evolution trials in the absence and presence of the community of competitors, predators, and parasites, (2) life-table and competition experiments to assess the fitness consequences of micro-evolution, and (3) competition experiments with putative immigrant genotypes. We use these observations as building blocks of an evolving metacommunity to understand biological responses to climatic change. This approach integrates both local and regional responses at both the population and community levels. Finally, we provide an outline of current gaps in knowledge and suggest fruitful avenues for future research.