Development and Validation of a Scoring System to Predict Response to Obeticholic Acid in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Obeticholic acid (OCA) is the only licensed second-line therapy for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). With novel therapeutics in advanced development, clinical tools are needed to tailor the treatment algorithm. We aimed to derive and externally validate the OCA response score (ORS) for predicting the response probability of individuals with PBC to OCA. METHODS: We used data from the Italian RECAPITULATE (N = 441) and the IBER-PBC (N = 244) OCA real-world prospective cohorts to derive/validate a score including widely available variables obtained either pre-treatment (ORS) or also after 6 months of treatment (ORS+). Multivariable Cox regressions with backward selection were applied to obtain parsimonious predictive models. The predicted outcomes were biochemical response according to POISE (alkaline phosphatase [ALP]/upper limit of normal [ULN]<1.67 with a reduction of at least 15%, and normal bilirubin), or ALP/ULN<1.67, or Normal range criteria (NR: normal ALP, alanine aminotransferase [ALT], and bilirubin) up to 24 months. RESULTS: Depending on the response criteria, ORS included age, pruritus, cirrhosis, ALP/ULN, ALT/ULN, GGT/ULN, and bilirubin. ORS+ also included ALP/ULN and bilirubin after 6 months of OCA therapy. Internally validated c-statistics for ORS were 0.75, 0.78, and 0.72 for POISE, ALP/ULN<1.67, and NR response, which raised to 0.83, 0.88, and 0.81 with ORS+, respectively. The respective performances in validation were 0.70, 0.72, and 0.71 for ORS and 0.80, 0.84, and 0.78 for ORS+. Results were consistent across groups with mild/severe disease. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and externally validated a scoring system capable to predict OCA response according to different criteria. This tool will enhance a stratified second-line therapy model to streamline standard care and trial delivery in PBC.

Improving predictive accuracy in primary biliary cholangitis: A new genetic risk score.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Genetic variants influence primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) risk. We established and tested an accurate polygenic risk score (PRS) using these variants. METHODS: Data from two Italian cohorts (OldIT 444 cases, 901 controls; NewIT 255 cases, 579 controls) were analysed. The latest international genome-wide meta-analysis provided effect size estimates. The PRS, together with human leukocyte antigen (HLA) status and sex, was included in an integrated risk model. RESULTS: Starting from 46 non-HLA genes, 22 variants were selected. PBC patients in the OldIT cohort showed a higher risk score than controls: -.014 (interquartile range, IQR, -.023, .005) versus -.022 (IQR -.030, -.013) (p < 2.2 × 10-16). For genetic-based prediction, the area under the curve (AUC) was .72; adding sex increased the AUC to .82. Validation in the NewIT cohort confirmed the model's accuracy (.71 without sex, .81 with sex). Individuals in the top group, representing the highest 25%, had a PBC risk approximately 14 times higher than that of the reference group (lowest 25%; p < 10-6). CONCLUSION: The combination of sex and a novel PRS accurately discriminated between PBC cases and controls. The model identified a subset of individuals at increased risk of PBC who might benefit from tailored monitoring.

Artificial Intelligence and liver: Opportunities and barriers.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has recently been shown as an excellent tool for the study of the liver; however, many obstacles still have to be overcome for the digitalization of real-world hepatology. The authors present an overview of the current state of the art on the use of innovative technologies in different areas (big data, translational hepatology, imaging, and transplant setting). In clinical practice, physicians must integrate a vast array of data modalities (medical history, clinical data, laboratory tests, imaging, and pathology slides) to achieve a diagnostic or therapeutic decision. Unfortunately, machine learning and deep learning are still far from really supporting clinicians in real life. In fact, the accuracy of any technological support has no value in medicine without the support of clinicians. To make better use of new technologies, it is essential to improve clinicians' knowledge about them. To this end, the authors propose that collaborative networks for multidisciplinary approaches will improve the rapid implementation of AI systems for developing disease-customized AI-powered clinical decision support tools. The authors also discuss ethical, educational, and legal challenges that must be overcome to build robust bridges and deploy potentially effective AI in real-world clinical settings.

Bacterascites confers poor patient prognosis beyond MELD prediction.

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a well-recognized clinical entity with a poor prognosis. In comparison, the prevalence, microbiological flora, and prognostic significance of bacterascites (BA) (the presence of organism on culture but ascitic PMN <250 cells/mm³) is largely unknown. We, therefore, assessed the prognosis and predictors of outcome in patients with BA in comparison with those with SBP. Ascitic fluid cultures from consecutive patients with cirrhosis from 2008 to 2018 were reviewed retrospectively, and patients with SBP and BA were identified. Baseline demographic, laboratory, and microbiological data were collated and analyzed as prognostic indicators, and clinical outcomes were recorded. Patients were censored at the time of LT, death, or last follow-up. For this study 176 and 213 cases of SBP and BA, respectively, were identified and included. Patients with SBP had significantly higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) ( p =<0.01), peripheral blood WCC ( p < 0.01), and higher rates of Enterobacteriaceae ( p < 0.01) and multi-drug resistant pathogens ( p < 0.01). Survival at 1 and 3 months was lower in patients with SBP ( p < 0.01) when compared with BA but at 6 months and beyond, no significant difference remained. After the exclusion of deaths within 30 days of presentation, survival between SBP and BA was equivocal at all time points. Mortality was substantially higher across all MELD groupings for both SBP and BA when compared with the predicted mortality calculated by the MELD score alone. BA has a negative impact on patient survival above that predicted by the MELD score. It has similar impact to SBP on patient survival beyond 1 month suggesting it should be seen as a poor prognostic marker and prompt consideration of LT where appropriate. Further studies evaluating the role of secondary prophylaxis in this group are required.

Open challenges in the management of autoimmune hepatitis.

Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a rare autoimmune disease of the liver with many open questions as regards its etiopathogenesis, natural history and clinical management. The classical picture of AIH is chronic hepatitis with fluctuating elevation of serum transaminases and Immunoglobulin G levels, the presence of circulating autoantibodies and typical histological features. However, atypical presentations do occur and are not well captured by current diagnostic scores, with important consequences in terms of missed diagnoses and delayed treatments. AIH is treated with corticosteroids and immunosuppressive drugs but up to 40% of patients do not achieve full biochemical response and are at risk of progressing to cirrhosis and liver failure. Moreover, standard therapies are associated by significant side-effects which may impair the quality of life of patients living with AIH. However, advances in the understanding of the underlying immunology of AIH is raising the prospect of novel therapies and optimization of existing therapeutic approaches to reduce side-effect burdens and potentially restore immunological tolerance. In this review we outlined the clinical characteristics, etiopathogenesis and management of AIH and current challenges in the diagnosis and management of AIH and provided evidence underlying the evolution of diagnostic and clinical management protocols.

Risk stratification in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic liver disorder commonly affecting young patients and associated with uncertain prognosis and elevated risk of end-stage liver disease and hepatobiliary cancer. Rate of progression in PSC is heterogeneous and accurately predicting the disease course is of paramount importance to clinical practice and interventional trial design. So far, efforts have brought to the development of models looking at short-to-middle-term outcome using composite models including clinical, laboratory, radiological and histological parameters with limited performance. In the era of whole genome sequencing and digital innovation, the time is ripe for the development of stratified medicine in PSC. Efforts should be directed toward developing well-phenotyped cohorts of patients with longitudinal follow-up across sustained periods of time, application of novel image-processing technology, and biomarker discovery using multiomics platforms.

Geographical region and clinical outcomes of patients with primary biliary cholangitis from Western Europe.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The are geographic variations in the incidence and prevalence of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The aim was to explore whether clinical outcomes of patients within Western Europe differ according to geographical region. METHODS: Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients from European centers from the Global PBC database diagnosed from 1990 onwards were included. Patients with a time lag > 1 year from diagnosis to start of follow-up were excluded. Differences in baseline characteristics were studied according to North/South and East/West, whereas outcomes (transplant-free survival and decompensation) were studied with center latitude and longitude. Cox regression analyses were adjusted for age, sex, diagnosis year, biochemical markers, and cirrhosis as a time-dependent covariate. RESULTS: One thousand eight hundred seventy-eight patients were included, and there were no geographical differences in age or sex, with a mean age of 54 years and 89% female patients. Those in North Europe were more often of a moderately advanced/advanced Rotterdam biochemical stage (28.4%) compared with South Europe (20.6%). Additionally, they exhibited higher median alkaline phosphatase (2.0 ×ULN vs. 1.4 ×ULN) and transaminases. In multivariable analysis, there was a significant interaction between center latitude and longitude for decompensation (P < 0.001) and a trend for transplant-free survival, in which the Northwestern area demonstrated an increased risk for poor outcomes as compared to the reference (Paris). CONCLUSION: We describe geographic variations in outcomes for patients across Europe from specialist centers in the Global PBC Study Group. Further study is important to explore the potential individual, environmental, and healthcare-related factors that may be contributors.

A quantitative MRCP-derived score for medium-term outcome prediction in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: Magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) is the gold standard for diagnosis of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). The semi-quantitative MRCP-derived Anali scores proposed for risk stratification, have poor-to-moderate inter-reader agreement. AIMS: To evaluate the prognostic performance of quantitative MRCP metrics in PSC. METHODS: This is a retrospective study of PSC patients undergoing MRCP. Images were processed using MRCP+ software (Perspectum Ltd, Oxford) that provides quantitative biliary features, semi-automatically extracted by artificial intelligence-driven analysis of MRCP-3D images. The prognostic value of biliary features has been assessed for all hepato-biliary complications. RESULTS: 87 PSC patients have been included in the analysis. Median follow-up from MRCP to event/censoring of 30.9 months (Q1-Q3=13.6-46.6). An adverse outcome occurred in 27 (31.0%) patients. The number of biliary strictures (HR=1.05 per unit, 95%CI 1.02-1.08, p < 0.0001), spleen length (HR=1.16 per cm, 95%CI 1.01-1.34, p = 0.039), adjusted for height, age at MRCP, and time from diagnosis to MRCP predicted higher risk of hepatobiliary complications. These were incorporated into a the quantitative MRCP-derived PSC (qMRCP-PSC) score (C-statistic=0.80). After 3-fold cross-validation, qMRCP-PSC outperformed the Anali score in our cohort (C-statistic of 0.78 vs 0.64) and enabled the discrimination of survival of PSC patients (log-rank p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The qMRCP-PSC score identified patients at higher risk of hepatobiliary complications and outperformed the available radiological scores. It represents a novel quantitative biomarker for disease monitoring and a potential surrogate endpoint for clinical trials.

Artificial intelligence for precision medicine in autoimmune liver disease.

Autoimmune liver diseases (AiLDs) are rare autoimmune conditions of the liver and the biliary tree with unknown etiology and limited treatment options. AiLDs are inherently characterized by a high degree of complexity, which poses great challenges in understanding their etiopathogenesis, developing novel biomarkers and risk-stratification tools, and, eventually, generating new drugs. Artificial intelligence (AI) is considered one of the best candidates to support researchers and clinicians in making sense of biological complexity. In this review, we offer a primer on AI and machine learning for clinicians, and discuss recent available literature on its applications in medicine and more specifically how it can help to tackle major unmet needs in AiLDs.

Role of ductular reaction and ductular-canalicular junctions in identifying severe primary biliary cholangitis.

Background & Aims: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic cholangiopathy characterised by immuno-mediated injury of interlobular bile ducts leading to intrahepatic cholestasis and progressive liver fibrosis. PBC histology is characterised by portal inflammation, progressive fibrosis, ductopenia, and the appearance of the so-called ductular reaction. The aim of the present study was to investigate the pathogenetic relevance of ductular reaction in PBC. Methods: Liver biopsies were collected from naïve people with PBC (N = 87). Clinical-serological parameters were obtained at diagnosis and after 1 year of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment. Histological staging was performed on all slides according to multiple scoring systems and criteria for PBC. Liver samples were obtained from Mdr2 -/- mice treated with or without UDCA. Samples were processed for histology, immunohistochemistry, and immunofluorescence. Results: Ductular reaction in people with PBC correlated with the disease stage and liver fibrosis, but not with disease activity; an extensive ductular reaction correlated with serum alkaline phosphatase levels at diagnosis, response to UDCA, and individuals' estimated survival, independently from other histological parameters, including disease stage. In people with PBC, reactive ductules were associated with the establishment of junctions with bile canaliculi and with fibrogenetic cell activation. Consistently, in a mouse model of intrahepatic cholestasis, UDCA treatment was effective in reducing ductular reaction and fibrosis and increasing ductular-canalicular junctions. Conclusions: Extensive ductular reaction outlines a severe histologic phenotype in PBC and is associated with an inadequate therapy response and a worse estimated prognosis. Lay summary: In people affected by primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), the histological appearance of extensive ductular reaction identifies individuals at risk of progressive fibrosis. Ductular reaction at diagnosis correlates with the lack of response to first-line therapy with ursodeoxycholic acid and serves to restore ductular-canalicular junctions in people with PBC. Assessing ductular reaction extension at diagnosis may add valuable information for clinicians.

GWAS and autoimmunity: What have we learned and what next.

Autoimmune diseases are common conditions characterized by loss of tolerance, female predominance and a remarkable heterogeneity among different populations. Most often they are polygenic and several genetic loci have been linked with the risk of developing autoimmune diseases. However, causal inference is difficult. When the genomic revolution began there were high hopes of translating fast genetic analyses to the bedside but this has proven to be challenging. Nonetheless, over the last decade, fine-mapping strategies have greatly improved; one of the most significant research lines focuses on the in vivo and ex vivo definition of the effect of genetic variants within the target tissues and within specific subpopulations of immune cells that are involved in the disease pathogenesis. This strategy also includes the longitudinal tracking of a large number of immunophenotypes in many individuals to build a large reference atlas for variant characterization. In this review, we discuss the results obtained by GWAS in autoimmune diseases and review recent advances in fine mapping strategies. More importantly, we discuss gaps and future directions.

Genetics of Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a rare disease of the liver characterized by an autoimmune attack on the small bile ducts. PBC is a complex trait, meaning that a large list of genetic factors interacts with environmental agents to determine its onset. Genome-wide association studies have had a huge impact in fostering research in PBC, but many steps need still to be done compared with other autoimmune diseases of similar prevalence. This review presents the state-of-the-art regarding the genetic architecture of PBC and provides some thoughtful reflections about possible future lines of research, which can be helpful to fill the missing heritability gap in PBC.

LLM-PBC: Logic Learning Machine-Based Explainable Rules Accurately Stratify the Genetic Risk of Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: The application of Machine Learning (ML) to genetic individual-level data represents a foreseeable advancement for the field, which is still in its infancy. Here, we aimed to evaluate the feasibility and accuracy of an ML-based model for disease risk prediction applied to Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC). METHODS: Genome-wide significant variants identified in subjects of European ancestry in the recently released second international meta-analysis of GWAS in PBC were used as input data. Quality-checked, individual genomic data from two Italian cohorts were used. The ML included the following steps: import of genotype and phenotype data, genetic variant selection, supervised classification of PBC by genotype, generation of "if-then" rules for disease prediction by logic learning machine (LLM), and model validation in a different cohort. RESULTS: The training cohort included 1345 individuals: 444 were PBC cases and 901 were healthy controls. After pre-processing, 41,899 variants entered the analysis. Several configurations of parameters related to feature selection were simulated. The best LLM model reached an Accuracy of 71.7%, a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.29, a Youden's value of 0.21, a Sensitivity of 0.28, a Specificity of 0.93, a Positive Predictive Value of 0.66, and a Negative Predictive Value of 0.72. Thirty-eight rules were generated. The rule with the highest covering (19.14) included the following genes: RIN3, KANSL1, TIMMDC1, TNPO3. The validation cohort included 834 individuals: 255 cases and 579 controls. By applying the ruleset derived in the training cohort, the Area under the Curve of the model was 0.73. CONCLUSIONS: This study represents the first illustration of an ML model applied to common variants associated with PBC. Our approach is computationally feasible, leverages individual-level data to generate intelligible rules, and can be used for disease prediction in at-risk individuals.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in patients with autoimmune hepatitis.

BACKGROUND: Data regarding outcome of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in vaccinated patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) are lacking. We evaluated the outcome of COVID-19 in AIH patients who received at least one dose of Pfizer- BioNTech (BNT162b2), Moderna (mRNA-1273) or AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1-S) vaccine. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective study on AIH patients with COVID-19. The outcomes of AIH patients who had acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) breakthrough infection after at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine were compared to unvaccinated patients with AIH. COVID-19 outcome was classified according to clinical state during the disease course as: (i) no hospitalization, (ii) hospitalization without oxygen supplementation, (iii) hospitalization with oxygen supplementation by nasal cannula or mask, (iv) intensive care unit (ICU) admission with non-invasive mechanical ventilation, (v) ICU admission with invasive mechanical ventilation or (vi) death, and data was analyzed using ordinal logistic regression. RESULTS: We included 413 (258 unvaccinated and 155 vaccinated) patients (81%, female) with a median age of 52 (range: 17-85) years at COVID-19 diagnosis. The rates of hospitalization were (36.4% vs. 14.2%), need for any supplemental oxygen (29.5% vs. 9%) and mortality (7% vs. 0.6%) in unvaccinated and vaccinated AIH patients with COVID-19. Having received at least one dose of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine was associated with a significantly lower risk of worse COVID-19 severity, after adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities and presence of cirrhosis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.18, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.10-0.31). Overall, vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 was associated with a significantly lower risk of mortality from COVID-19 (aOR 0.20, 95% CI 0.11-0.35). CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination significantly reduced the risk of COVID-19 severity and mortality in patients with AIH.

New insights on the role of human leukocyte antigen complex in primary biliary cholangitis.

Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) is a rare autoimmune cholangiopathy. Genetic studies have shown that the strongest statistical association with PBC has been mapped in the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) locus, a highly polymorphic area that mostly contribute to the genetic variance of the disease. Furthermore, PBC presents high variability throughout different population groups, which may explain the different geoepidemiology of the disease. A major role in defining HLA genetic contribution has been given by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) studies; more recently, new technologies have been developed to allow a deeper understanding. The study of the altered peptides transcribed by genetic alterations also allowed the development of novel therapeutic strategies in the context of immunotolerance. This review summarizes what is known about the immunogenetics of PBC with a focus on the HLA locus, the different distribution of HLA alleles worldwide, and how HLA modifications are associated with the pathogenesis of PBC. Novel therapeutic strategies are also outlined.

Predictors of serious adverse events and non-response in cirrhotic patients with primary biliary cholangitis treated with obeticholic acid.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Obeticholic acid (OCA) has recently been restricted in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) with "advanced cirrhosis" because of its narrow therapeutic index. We aimed to better define the predicting factors of hepatic serious adverse events (SAEs) and non-response in cirrhotic patients undergoing OCA therapy. METHODS: Safety and efficacy of treatment were evaluated in a cohort of consecutive PBC cirrhotic patients started with OCA. OCA response was evaluated according to the Poise criteria. Risk factors for hepatic SAEs and non-response were reported as risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: One hundred PBC cirrhotics were included, 97 Child-Pugh class A and 3 class B. Thirty-one had oesophageal varices and 5 had a history of ascites. Thirty-three per cent and 32% of patients achieved a biochemical response at 6 and 12 months respectively. Male sex (adjusted-RR 1.75, 95%CI 1.42-2.12), INR (1.37, 1.00-1.87), Child-Pugh score (1.79, 1.28-2.50), MELD (1.17, 1.04-1.30) and bilirubin (1.83, 1.11-3.01) were independently associated with non-response to OCA. Twenty-two patients discontinued OCA within 12 months: 10 for pruritus, 9 for hepatic SAEs (5 for jaundice and/or ascitic decompensation; 4 for upper digestive bleeding). INR (adjusted-RR 1.91, 95%CI 1.10-3.36), lower albumin levels (0.18, 0.06-0.51), Child-Pugh score (2.43, 1.50-4.04), history of ascites (3.5, 1.85-6.5) and bilirubin (1.30, 1.05-1.56), were associated with hepatic SAEs. A total bilirubin≥1.4 mg/dl at baseline was the most accurate biochemical predictor of hepatic SAEs under OCA. CONCLUSIONS: An accurate baseline assessment is crucial to select cirrhotic patients who can benefit from OCA. Although OCA is effective in one third of cirrhotics, bilirubin level ≥1.4 mg/dl should discourage from its use.

Detailed stratified GWAS analysis for severe COVID-19 in four European populations.

Given the highly variable clinical phenotype of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a deeper analysis of the host genetic contribution to severe COVID-19 is important to improve our understanding of underlying disease mechanisms. Here, we describe an extended genome-wide association meta-analysis of a well-characterized cohort of 3255 COVID-19 patients with respiratory failure and 12 488 population controls from Italy, Spain, Norway and Germany/Austria, including stratified analyses based on age, sex and disease severity, as well as targeted analyses of chromosome Y haplotypes, the human leukocyte antigen region and the SARS-CoV-2 peptidome. By inversion imputation, we traced a reported association at 17q21.31 to a ~0.9-Mb inversion polymorphism that creates two highly differentiated haplotypes and characterized the potential effects of the inversion in detail. Our data, together with the 5th release of summary statistics from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative including non-Caucasian individuals, also identified a new locus at 19q13.33, including NAPSA, a gene which is expressed primarily in alveolar cells responsible for gas exchange in the lung.

The Role of Macrophages in Liver Fibrosis: New Therapeutic Opportunities.

Chronic inflammation is the hallmark of fibrotic disorders and is characterized by the activation of immune cells in the damaged tissues. Macrophages have emerged as central players in the fibrotic process since they initiate, sustain and amplify the inflammatory reaction. As regards the liver, distinct populations of phagocytic cells, like Kupffer cells and monocyte-derived macrophages, are indisputably key cells implicated in the pathogenesis of several chronic liver diseases. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge on the origin, role and functions of macrophages in fibrotic conditions, with a specific focus on liver fibrosis; then, we discuss some innovative therapeutic strategies targeting macrophages in fibrotic liver diseases.

The Role of Epigenetics in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) is a rare autoimmune disease of the liver, affecting mostly females. There is evidence that epigenetic changes have a pathogenic role in PBC. Epigenetic modifications are related to methylation of CpG DNA islands, post-translational modifications of histone proteins, and non-coding RNAs. In PBC, there are data showing a dysregulation of all these levels, especially in immune cells. In addition, epigenetics seems to be involved in complex phenomena such as X monosomy or abnormalities in the process of X chromosome inactivation, which have been reported in PBC and appear to influence its sex imbalance and pathogenesis. We review here historical data on epigenetic modifications in PBC, present new data, and discuss possible links among X-chromosome abnormalities at a genetic and epigenetic level, PBC pathogenesis, and PBC sex imbalance.