An approximate diffusion process for environmental stochasticity in infectious disease transmission modelling.

Modelling the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease is a complex task. Not only it is difficult to accurately model the inherent non-stationarity and heterogeneity of transmission, but it is nearly impossible to describe, mechanistically, changes in extrinsic environmental factors including public behaviour and seasonal fluctuations. An elegant approach to capturing environmental stochasticity is to model the force of infection as a stochastic process. However, inference in this context requires solving a computationally expensive "missing data" problem, using data-augmentation techniques. We propose to model the time-varying transmission-potential as an approximate diffusion process using a path-wise series expansion of Brownian motion. This approximation replaces the "missing data" imputation step with the inference of the expansion coefficients: a simpler and computationally cheaper task. We illustrate the merit of this approach through three examples: modelling influenza using a canonical SIR model, capturing seasonality using a SIRS model, and the modelling of COVID-19 pandemic using a multi-type SEIR model.

Prokaryotic ncRNAs: Master regulators of gene expression.

ncRNA plays a very pivotal role in various biological activities ranging from gene regulation to controlling important developmental networks. It is imperative to note that this small molecule is not only present in all three domains of cellular life, but is an important modulator of gene regulation too in all these domains. In this review, we discussed various aspects of ncRNA biology, especially their role in bacteria. The last two decades of scientific research have proved that this molecule plays an important role in the modulation of various regulatory pathways in bacteria including the adaptive immune system and gene regulation. It is also very surprising to note that this small molecule is also employed in various processes related to the pathogenicity of virulent microorganisms.

Genome structure and genetic diversity in the Ebola virus.

Ebola is a deadly pathogen responsible for Ebola virus disease, first came to prominence in the year 1976. This rapidly evolving virus imposed a serious threat to the human population in the last few decades and also continues to be a probable threat to our race. A better understanding of the virus in terms of its genomic structure is very much needed to develop an effective antiviral therapy against this deadly pathogen. Complete knowledge of its genomic structure and variations will help us and the entire scientific community to design effective therapy in terms of either vaccine development or the development of proper antiviral medicine.

Shut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe.

We investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden and German states as case studies. By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalizations or confirmed cases under different interventions, we provide evidence that school closures contribute to a reduction in the growth rate approximately 7 days after implementation. Limited school attendance, such as older students sitting exams or the partial return of younger year groups, does not appear to significantly affect community transmission. In countries where community transmission is generally low, such as Denmark or Norway, a large-scale reopening of schools while controlling or suppressing the epidemic appears feasible. However, school reopening can contribute to statistically significant increases in the growth rate in countries like Germany, where community transmission is relatively high. In all regions, a combination of low classroom occupancy and robust test-and-trace measures were in place. Our findings underscore the need for a cautious evaluation of reopening strategies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

SARS-CoV-2 and other human coronaviruses: Mapping of protease recognition sites, antigenic variation of spike protein and their grouping through molecular phylogenetics.

In recent years, a total of seven human pathogenic coronaviruses (HCoVs) strains were identified, i.e., SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, and HCoV-HKU1. Here, we performed an analysis of the protease recognition sites and antigenic variation of the S-protein of these HCoVs. We showed tissue-specific expression pattern, functions, and a number of recognition sites of proteases in S-proteins from seven strains of HCoVs. In the case of SARS-CoV-2, we found two new protease recognition sites, each of calpain-2, pepsin-A, and caspase-8, and one new protease recognition site each of caspase-6, caspase-3, and furin. Our antigenic mapping study of the S-protein of these HCoVs showed that the SARS-CoV-2 virus strain has the most potent antigenic epitopes (highest antigenicity score with maximum numbers of epitope regions). Additionally, the other six strains of HCoVs show common antigenic epitopes (both B-cell and T-cell), with low antigenicity scores compared to SARS-CoV-2. We suggest that the molecular evolution of structural proteins of human CoV can be classified, such as (i) HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-229E, (ii) SARS-CoV-2, and SARS-CoV and (iii) HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. In conclusion, we can presume that our study might help to prepare the interventions for the possible HCoVs outbreaks in the future.

Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ methods to characterize uncertainty in model inputs and how that propagates through to outputs or predictions; examples of this can be seen in the papers of this issue. In this review and perspective piece, we draw attention to an important and under-addressed source of uncertainty in our predictions-that of uncertainty in the model structure or the equations themselves. The difference between imperfect models and reality is termed model discrepancy, and we are often uncertain as to the size and consequences of this discrepancy. Here, we provide two examples of the consequences of discrepancy when calibrating models at the ion channel and action potential scales. Furthermore, we attempt to account for this discrepancy when calibrating and validating an ion channel model using different methods, based on modelling the discrepancy using Gaussian processes and autoregressive-moving-average models, then highlight the advantages and shortcomings of each approach. Finally, suggestions and lines of enquiry for future work are provided. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.