[Stratification of risk areas for measles transmission: a systematic reviewEstratificación de las zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión: revisión sistemática]. / Estratificação de áreas de risco de transmissão de sarampo: uma revisão sistemática.

Objective: To perform a systematic review of scientific publications addressing the use of stratification methods to define risk areas for measles transmission. Method: Articles published in English, Portuguese, and Spanish in journals indexed in the SciELO, PubMed, and LILACS databases were selected. The search terms risk assessment AND measles were used without date limits. Editorials, opinion articles, individual-level observational studies, and publications that did not focus on the application of methods to stratify measles transmission risk areas were excluded. Year of publication, authorship, country where the study was performed, objective, geographic level of analysis, method used, indicators, and limitations were recorded in a data form. Results: Thirteen articles published between 2011 and 2022 in nine countries from the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions were selected. Of these, 10 referred to the Measles Risk Assessment Tool developed by the WHO/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Only one study adapted the tool to the local context. The risk stratification indicators used in the selected studies focused on a combination of the following dimensions: population immunity, quality of surveillance systems, and epidemiologic status. The systematic output of data with adequate quality and coverage was a noteworthy aspect hindering risk stratification. Conclusion: There seems to be limited dissemination of measles risk stratification strategies, especially at local levels. The need to train human resources to process and interpret risk analyses as part of the routine of surveillance services is emphasized.

Objetivo: Realizar una revisión sistemática de las publicaciones científicas en las que se han abordado experiencias de aplicación de métodos de estratificación para definir las zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión. Métodos: Se seleccionaron artículos publicados en español, inglés o portugués en revistas indizadas en las bases de datos SciELO, PubMed y LILACS. En la búsqueda se utilizaron los descriptores "risk assessment" y "measles", sin limitaciones en la fecha de publicación. Se excluyeron editoriales, artículos de opinión, estudios de observación de pacientes individuales y publicaciones que no tratasen de la aplicación de métodos de estratificación de zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión. Se empleó un formulario para extraer la información sobre año de publicación, autoría, país de realización del estudio, objetivo, escala geográfica, método utilizado, indicadores y limitaciones. Resultados: Se seleccionaron 13 artículos publicados entre el 2011 y el 2022 en nueve países de las seis regiones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS). En 10 de ellos se utilizó como referencia la herramienta de evaluación del riesgo de sarampión creada por la OMS y los Centros para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades de Estados Unidos. Solamente en un estudio se adaptó la herramienta al contexto local. Los indicadores utilizados para la estratificación del riesgo se basaron en una combinación de las dimensiones de inmunidad poblacional, calidad de los sistemas de vigilancia y situación epidemiológica. Entre las dificultades de la estratificación del riesgo se destaca la de generación sistemática de datos con una cobertura y calidad adecuadas. Conclusión: Las estrategias de estratificación del riesgo de transmisión del sarampión siguen sin estar, al parecer, muy extendidas, en especial a nivel local. Cabe reiterar la necesidad de fomentar la capacitación de recursos humanos para procesar e interpretar los análisis de riesgo en las operaciones habituales de los servicios de vigilancia.

Estratificação de áreas de risco de transmissão de sarampo: uma revisão sistemática / Stratification of risk areas for measles transmission: a systematic review / Estratificación de las zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión: revisión sistemática

RESUMO Objetivo. Realizar uma revisão sistemática de publicações científicas que abordaram experiências de aplicação de métodos de estratificação para definir áreas de risco de transmissão de sarampo. Métodos. Foram selecionados artigos publicados nos idiomas inglês, português e espanhol em periódicos indexados nas bases SciELO, PubMed e LILACS. A busca utilizou os descritores risk assessment AND measles, sem delimitação de período. Foram excluídos editoriais, artigos de opinião, estudos observacionais de nível individual e publicações que não tratavam da aplicação de métodos de estratificação de áreas de risco de transmissão de sarampo. As informações de ano de publicação, autoria, país de realização do estudo, objetivo, escala geográfica, método utilizado, indicadores e limitações foram extraídas por meio de formulário. Resultados. Foram selecionados 13 artigos publicados entre 2011 e 2022 em nove países das seis regiões da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS). Desses, 10 tiveram como referência a ferramenta Measles Risk Assessment Tool desenvolvida pela OMS/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Apenas um estudo adaptou a ferramenta ao contexto local. Os indicadores utilizados para a estratificação de risco enfocaram uma combinação das dimensões imunidade populacional, qualidade dos sistemas de vigilância e situação epidemiológica. Como dificuldades para a estratificação de risco, destaca-se a produção sistemática de dados com cobertura e qualidade adequadas. Conclusão. As estratégias de estratificação do risco de transmissão de sarampo parecem ser ainda pouco difundidas, especialmente na escala local. Reitera-se a necessidade de estímulo à capacitação de recursos humanos para processamento e interpretação das análises de risco nas rotinas dos serviços de vigilância.

ABSTRACT Objective. To perform a systematic review of scientific publications addressing the use of stratification methods to define risk areas for measles transmission. Method. Articles published in English, Portuguese, and Spanish in journals indexed in the SciELO, PubMed, and LILACS databases were selected. The search terms risk assessment AND measles were used without date limits. Editorials, opinion articles, individual-level observational studies, and publications that did not focus on the application of methods to stratify measles transmission risk areas were excluded. Year of publication, authorship, country where the study was performed, objective, geographic level of analysis, method used, indicators, and limitations were recorded in a data form. Results. Thirteen articles published between 2011 and 2022 in nine countries from the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions were selected. Of these, 10 referred to the Measles Risk Assessment Tool developed by the WHO/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Only one study adapted the tool to the local context. The risk stratification indicators used in the selected studies focused on a combination of the following dimensions: population immunity, quality of surveillance systems, and epidemiologic status. The systematic output of data with adequate quality and coverage was a noteworthy aspect hindering risk stratification. Conclusion. There seems to be limited dissemination of measles risk stratification strategies, especially at local levels. The need to train human resources to process and interpret risk analyses as part of the routine of surveillance services is emphasized.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Realizar una revisión sistemática de las publicaciones científicas en las que se han abordado experiencias de aplicación de métodos de estratificación para definir las zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión. Métodos. Se seleccionaron artículos publicados en español, inglés o portugués en revistas indizadas en las bases de datos SciELO, PubMed y LILACS. En la búsqueda se utilizaron los descriptores "risk assessment" y "measles", sin limitaciones en la fecha de publicación. Se excluyeron editoriales, artículos de opinión, estudios de observación de pacientes individuales y publicaciones que no tratasen de la aplicación de métodos de estratificación de zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión. Se empleó un formulario para extraer la información sobre año de publicación, autoría, país de realización del estudio, objetivo, escala geográfica, método utilizado, indicadores y limitaciones. Resultados. Se seleccionaron 13 artículos publicados entre el 2011 y el 2022 en nueve países de las seis regiones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS). En 10 de ellos se utilizó como referencia la herramienta de evaluación del riesgo de sarampión creada por la OMS y los Centros para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades de Estados Unidos. Solamente en un estudio se adaptó la herramienta al contexto local. Los indicadores utilizados para la estratificación del riesgo se basaron en una combinación de las dimensiones de inmunidad poblacional, calidad de los sistemas de vigilancia y situación epidemiológica. Entre las dificultades de la estratificación del riesgo se destaca la de generación sistemática de datos con una cobertura y calidad adecuadas. Conclusión. Las estrategias de estratificación del riesgo de transmisión del sarampión siguen sin estar, al parecer, muy extendidas, en especial a nivel local. Cabe reiterar la necesidad de fomentar la capacitación de recursos humanos para procesar e interpretar los análisis de riesgo en las operaciones habituales de los servicios de vigilancia.

Registration with Primary Health Care and COVID-19 mortality: cohort of diabetics from five administrative health regions in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2020-2021. / Cadastro na Atenção Primária e mortalidade por COVID-19: coorte de diabéticos de cinco regiões administrativas de saúde do município do Rio de Janeiro, 2020­2021.

OBJECTIVE: The present study carried out an analysis of survival according to the status of registration with Primary Health Care (PHC) and of factors associated with death from COVID-19, in cases residing in Programmatic Area 3.1 (PA3.1) with a diagnosis of diabetes (in the notification form or in the electronic medical record), of the Municipality of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Brazil, in 2020-2021. METHODS: A probabilistic linkage of databases was performed based on information on cases notified as COVID-19 and data from the electronic medical records of people living with diabetes. A survival analysis was carried out, using the Cox regression model stratified by age group and adjusted for confounding variables. RESULTS: Individuals registered with the PHC of PA3.1 had almost twice the risk of death from COVID-19 (adjusted hazard ratio [HRadj]=1.91) when compared to those unregistered. This association was stronger in individuals aged 18 to 59 years registered with the PHC (HRadj=2.82) than in individuals aged 60 years or over (HRadj=1.56). CONCLUSION: Surveillance strategies for identifying and adequately monitoring higher-risk groups, among individuals living with diabetes, within the scope of Primary Health Care, can contribute to reducing mortality from COVID-19.

OBJETIVO: O presente estudo realizou uma análise de sobrevivência segundo situação de cadastro na Atenção Primária à Saúde (APS) e de fatores associados ao óbito por COVID-19, nos casos residentes da Área Programática 3.1 (AP3.1) com diagnóstico de diabetes (na ficha de notificação ou no prontuário eletrônico) do município do Rio de Janeiro, em 2020­2021. MÉTODOS: Foi realizado relacionamento probabilístico de bases de dados com base nas informações dos casos notificados por COVID-19 e dos dados de prontuário eletrônico de pessoas que vivem com diabetes. Conduziu-se uma análise de sobrevivência, utilizando-se o modelo de regressão de Cox estratificado por faixa etária e ajustando-se por variáveis confundidoras. RESULTADOS: Verificou-se que indivíduos cadastrados na APS da AP3.1 possuíam risco quase duas vezes maior de óbito por COVID-19 (hazard ratio ajustada ­ HRaj=1,91) quando comparados aos não cadastrados na APS da AP3.1. Essa associação foi mais forte naqueles com 18 a 59 anos, cadastrados na APS (HRaj=2,82), do que nos de 60 anos ou mais (HRaj=1,56). CONCLUSÃO: Estratégias de vigilância para a identificação e acompanhamento adequado de grupos de maior risco de mortalidade, dentre indivíduos que vivem com DM, no âmbito da APS podem contribuir para a redução da mortalidade em decorrência da COVID-19.

Sociodemographic and environmental factors associated with dengue, Zika, and chikungunya among adolescents from two Brazilian capitals.

Among the emerging and reemerging arboviral diseases, Zika, dengue and chikungunya deserve special attention due to their wide geographical distribution and clinical severity. The three arboviruses are transmitted by the same vector and can present similar clinical syndromes, bringing challenges to their identification and register. Demographic characteristics and individual and contextual social factors have been associated with the three arboviral diseases. However, little is known about such associations among adolescents, whose relationships with the social environment are different from those of adult populations, implying potentially different places, types, and degrees of exposure to the vector, particularly in the school context. This study aims to identify sociodemographic and environmental risk factors for the occurrence of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya in a cohort of adolescents from the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents-ERICA-in the cities of Rio de Janeiro/RJ and Fortaleza/CE, from January 2015 to March 2019. Cases were defined as adolescents with laboratory or clinical-epidemiological diagnosis of Zika, dengue, or chikungunya, notified and registered in the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN). The cases were identified by linkage between the databases of the ERICA cohort and of SINAN. Multilevel Cox regression was employed to estimate hazard ratios (HR) as measures of association and respective 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). In comparison with adolescents living in lower socioeconomic conditions, the risk of becoming ill due to any of the three studied arboviral diseases was lower among those living in better socioeconomic conditions (HR = 0.43; 95%CI: 0.19-0.99; p = 0.047) and in the adolescents who attended school in the afternoon period (HR = 0.17; 95%CI: 0.06-0.47; p<0.001). When compared to areas whose Building Infestation Index (BII) for Aedes aegypti was considered satisfactory, a BII in the school region classified as "alert" and "risk" was associated with a higher risk of arboviral diseases (HR = 1.62, 95%CI: 0.98-2.70; p = 0.062; HR = 3.72, 95%CI: 1.27-10.9; p = 0.017, respectively). These findings indicate that living in less favored socioeconomic conditions, attending school in the morning, and having a high BII for Ae. aegypti in school's region can contribute to an increased risk of infection by Zika, dengue, or chikungunya in adolescents. The identification of residential or school areas based on those variables can contribute to the implementation of control measures in population groups and priority locations.

Cadastro na Atenção Primária e mortalidade por COVID-19: coorte de diabéticos de cinco regiões administrativas de saúde do município do Rio de Janeiro, 2020-2021 / Registration with Primary Health Care and COVID-19 mortality: cohort of diabetics from five administrative health regions in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2020-2021

RESUMO Objetivo: O presente estudo realizou uma análise de sobrevivência segundo situação de cadastro na Atenção Primária à Saúde (APS) e de fatores associados ao óbito por COVID-19, nos casos residentes da Área Programática 3.1 (AP3.1) com diagnóstico de diabetes (na ficha de notificação ou no prontuário eletrônico) do município do Rio de Janeiro, em 2020-2021. Métodos: Foi realizado relacionamento probabilístico de bases de dados com base nas informações dos casos notificados por COVID-19 e dos dados de prontuário eletrônico de pessoas que vivem com diabetes. Conduziu-se uma análise de sobrevivência, utilizando-se o modelo de regressão de Cox estratificado por faixa etária e ajustando-se por variáveis confundidoras. Resultados: Verificou-se que indivíduos cadastrados na APS da AP3.1 possuíam risco quase duas vezes maior de óbito por COVID-19 (hazard ratio ajustada — HRaj=1,91) quando comparados aos não cadastrados na APS da AP3.1. Essa associação foi mais forte naqueles com 18 a 59 anos, cadastrados na APS (HRaj=2,82), do que nos de 60 anos ou mais (HRaj=1,56). Conclusão: Estratégias de vigilância para a identificação e acompanhamento adequado de grupos de maior risco de mortalidade, dentre indivíduos que vivem com DM, no âmbito da APS podem contribuir para a redução da mortalidade em decorrência da COVID-19.

ABSTRACT Objective: The present study carried out an analysis of survival according to the status of registration with Primary Health Care (PHC) and of factors associated with death from COVID-19, in cases residing in Programmatic Area 3.1 (PA3.1) with a diagnosis of diabetes (in the notification form or in the electronic medical record), of the Municipality of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Brazil, in 2020-2021. Methods: A probabilistic linkage of databases was performed based on information on cases notified as COVID-19 and data from the electronic medical records of people living with diabetes. A survival analysis was carried out, using the Cox regression model stratified by age group and adjusted for confounding variables. Results: Individuals registered with the PHC of PA3.1 had almost twice the risk of death from COVID-19 (adjusted hazard ratio [HRadj]=1.91) when compared to those unregistered. This association was stronger in individuals aged 18 to 59 years registered with the PHC (HRadj=2.82) than in individuals aged 60 years or over (HRadj=1.56). Conclusion: Surveillance strategies for identifying and adequately monitoring higher-risk groups, among individuals living with diabetes, within the scope of Primary Health Care, can contribute to reducing mortality from COVID-19.

[Identification of risk areas and factors associated with the 2019 measles epidemic in the State of São Paulo, Brazil]. / Identificação de áreas de risco e fatores associados à epidemia de sarampo de 2019 no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil.

This study aimed to analyze the occurrence of clusters and factors associated with the resurgence of measles cases from the largest epidemic of the post-elimination period in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 2019. Sociosanitary and care factors were analyzed by zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and ZIP models with structured and unstructured spatial effect. The SCAN statistic was used to analyze the occurrence of case clusters. Clusters of high-risk cases were identified in municipalities that make up the intermediate region of São Paulo. In the ZIP model, the following variables were observed as risk factors at the municipal level: household heads under 18 years old (adjusted RR =0 1.39; 95%CrI: 1.27-1.53), inequality in income distribution (adjusted RR = 36.67; 95%CrI: 26.36-51.15), unemployment in people over 18 years old (adjusted RR = 1.10; 95%CrI: 1.08-1.12), and non-existent street lighting (adjusted RR = 1.05; 95%CrI: 1.04-1.05). In the ZIP models with structured and unstructured spatial effect, the following variables were observed as risk factors: household heads under 18 years old (adjusted RR = 1.36; 95%CrI: 1.04-1.90) and inequality in income distribution (adjusted RR = 3.12; 95%CrI: 1.02-9.48). In both models, the coverage of health agents was presented as a protective factor. The findings reinforce the importance of intensifying measles surveillance actions articulated to the Family Health Strategy, especially in areas with greater social vulnerability, to ensure equitable and satisfactory vaccination coverage and reduce the risk of reemergence of the disease.

O objetivo foi analisar a ocorrência de clusters e fatores associados ao ressurgimento de casos de sarampo da maior epidemia do período pós-eliminação, ocorrida no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, em 2019. Fatores sociossanitários e assistenciais foram analisados por modelos de Poisson inflacionado de zero (ZIP) e ZIP com efeito espacial estruturado e não estruturado. A estatística de varredura SCAN foi usada para analisar a ocorrência de clusters de casos. Foram identificados clusters de casos de alto risco em municípios que compõem a região intermediária de São Paulo. No modelo ZIP, foram observadas como fatores de risco no nível municipal as variáveis chefes de domicílio menores de 18 anos (RR ajustado = 1,39; ICr95%: 1,27-1,53), desigualdade na distribuição de renda (RR ajustado = 36,67; ICr95%: 26,36-51,15), desocupação em maiores de 18 anos (RR ajustado = 1,10; ICr95%: 1,08-1,12) e iluminação pública inexistente (RR ajustado = 1,05; ICr95%: 1,04-1,05). Nos modelos ZIP com efeito espacial estruturado e não estruturado, foram identificados como fatores de risco os indicadores chefes de domicílio menores de 18 anos (RR ajustado = 1,36; ICr95%: 1,04-1,90) e desigualdade na distribuição dos rendimentos do trabalho (RR ajustado = 3,12; ICr95%: 1,02-9,48). Em ambos os modelos, a cobertura de agentes de saúde se apresentou como fator de proteção. Os achados reforçam a importância de intensificar as ações de vigilância de sarampo articuladas à Estratégia Saúde da Família, especialmente em áreas de maior vulnerabilidade social, para garantir coberturas vacinais equânimes e satisfatórias e reduzir o risco de reemergência da doença.

El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la ocurrencia de clusters y sus factores asociados al resurgimiento de los casos de sarampión teniendo por base la mayor epidemia del período poserradicación que tuvo lugar en el Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, en 2019. Los factores sociosanitarios y asistenciales se analizaron mediante modelos de Poisson zero inflated (ZIP) y ZIP con efecto espacial estructurado y no estructurado. La estadística de exploración SCAN se utilizó para analizar la ocurrencia de clusters de casos. Se identificaron clusters de casos de alto riesgo en municipios que componen la Región Intermedia de São Paulo. En el modelo ZIP se observaron como factores de riesgo a nivel municipal las variables jefes de hogar menores de 18 años (RR ajustado = 1,39; ICr95%: 1,27-1,53), desigualdad en la distribución de renta (RR ajustado = 36,67; ICr95%: 26,36-51,15), desempleo en mayores de 18 años (RR ajustado = 1,10; ICr95%: 1,08-1,12) y alumbrado público inexistente (RR ajustado = 1,05; ICr95%: 1,04-1,05). En los modelos ZIP con efecto espacial estructurado y no estructurado, se identificaron como factores de riesgo los indicadores jefe de hogar menor de 18 años (RR ajustado = 1,36; ICr95%: 1,04-1,90) y la desigualdad en la distribución de los ingresos de trabajo (RR ajustado = 3,12; ICr95%: 1,02- 9,48). En ambos modelos, la cobertura de los agentes de salud fue un factor protector. Los hallazgos evidencian la importancia de intensificar las acciones de vigilancia del sarampión vinculadas a la Estrategia de Salud Familiar, especialmente en las zonas de mayor vulnerabilidad social, para garantizar una cobertura de la vacunación de manera equitativa y satisfactoria, además de reducir el riesgo de reemergencia de la enfermedad.

Measles resurgence in Brazil: analysis of the 2019 epidemic in the state of São Paulo.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the epidemiological profile of cases and the pattern of spatial diffusion of the largest measles epidemic in Brazil that occurred in the post-elimination period in the state of São Paulo. METHOD: A cross-sectional study based on confirmed measles cases in 2019. Bivariate analysis was performed for socioeconomic, clinical, and epidemiological variables, according to prior vaccination and hospitalization, combined with an analysis of spatial diffusion of cases using the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method. RESULTS: Of the 15,598 confirmed cases, 2,039 were hospitalized and 17 progressed to death. The epidemic peak occurred in epidemiological week 33, after confirmation of the first case, in the epidemiological week 6. Most cases were male (52.1%), aged between 18 and 29 years (38.7%), identified as whites (70%). Young adults (39.7%) and children under five years (32.8%) were the most affected age groups. A higher proportion of previous vaccination was observed in whites as compared to Blacks, browns, yellows and indigenous people (p < 0.001), as well as in the most educated group compared to the other categories (p < 0.001). The risk of hospitalization was higher in children than in the older age group (RI = 2.19; 95%CI: 1.66-2.88), as well as in the unvaccinated than in the vaccinated (RI = 1.59; 95%CI: 1.45-1.75). The pattern of diffusion by contiguity combined with diffusion by relocation followed the urban hierarchy of the main cities' regions of influence. CONCLUSION: In addition to routine vaccination in children, the findings indicate the need for immunization campaigns for young adults. In addition, studies that seek to investigate the occurrence of clusters of vulnerable populations, prone to lower vaccination coverage, are essential to broaden the understanding of the dynamics of transmission and, thus, reorienting control strategies that ensure disease elimination.

Identificação de áreas de risco e fatores associados à epidemia de sarampo de 2019 no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil / Identification of risk areas and factors associated with the 2019 measles epidemic in the State of São Paulo, Brazil / Identificación de áreas de riesgo y factores asociados a la epidemia de sarampión de 2019 en el Estado de São Paulo, Brasil

O objetivo foi analisar a ocorrência de clusters e fatores associados ao ressurgimento de casos de sarampo da maior epidemia do período pós-eliminação, ocorrida no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, em 2019. Fatores sociossanitários e assistenciais foram analisados por modelos de Poisson inflacionado de zero (ZIP) e ZIP com efeito espacial estruturado e não estruturado. A estatística de varredura SCAN foi usada para analisar a ocorrência de clusters de casos. Foram identificados clusters de casos de alto risco em municípios que compõem a região intermediária de São Paulo. No modelo ZIP, foram observadas como fatores de risco no nível municipal as variáveis chefes de domicílio menores de 18 anos (RR ajustado = 1,39; ICr95%: 1,27-1,53), desigualdade na distribuição de renda (RR ajustado = 36,67; ICr95%: 26,36-51,15), desocupação em maiores de 18 anos (RR ajustado = 1,10; ICr95%: 1,08-1,12) e iluminação pública inexistente (RR ajustado = 1,05; ICr95%: 1,04-1,05). Nos modelos ZIP com efeito espacial estruturado e não estruturado, foram identificados como fatores de risco os indicadores chefes de domicílio menores de 18 anos (RR ajustado = 1,36; ICr95%: 1,04-1,90) e desigualdade na distribuição dos rendimentos do trabalho (RR ajustado = 3,12; ICr95%: 1,02-9,48). Em ambos os modelos, a cobertura de agentes de saúde se apresentou como fator de proteção. Os achados reforçam a importância de intensificar as ações de vigilância de sarampo articuladas à Estratégia Saúde da Família, especialmente em áreas de maior vulnerabilidade social, para garantir coberturas vacinais equânimes e satisfatórias e reduzir o risco de reemergência da doença.

This study aimed to analyze the occurrence of clusters and factors associated with the resurgence of measles cases from the largest epidemic of the post-elimination period in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 2019. Sociosanitary and care factors were analyzed by zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and ZIP models with structured and unstructured spatial effect. The SCAN statistic was used to analyze the occurrence of case clusters. Clusters of high-risk cases were identified in municipalities that make up the intermediate region of São Paulo. In the ZIP model, the following variables were observed as risk factors at the municipal level: household heads under 18 years old (adjusted RR =0 1.39; 95%CrI: 1.27-1.53), inequality in income distribution (adjusted RR = 36.67; 95%CrI: 26.36-51.15), unemployment in people over 18 years old (adjusted RR = 1.10; 95%CrI: 1.08-1.12), and non-existent street lighting (adjusted RR = 1.05; 95%CrI: 1.04-1.05). In the ZIP models with structured and unstructured spatial effect, the following variables were observed as risk factors: household heads under 18 years old (adjusted RR = 1.36; 95%CrI: 1.04-1.90) and inequality in income distribution (adjusted RR = 3.12; 95%CrI: 1.02-9.48). In both models, the coverage of health agents was presented as a protective factor. The findings reinforce the importance of intensifying measles surveillance actions articulated to the Family Health Strategy, especially in areas with greater social vulnerability, to ensure equitable and satisfactory vaccination coverage and reduce the risk of reemergence of the disease.

El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la ocurrencia de clusters y sus factores asociados al resurgimiento de los casos de sarampión teniendo por base la mayor epidemia del período poserradicación que tuvo lugar en el Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, en 2019. Los factores sociosanitarios y asistenciales se analizaron mediante modelos de Poisson zero inflated (ZIP) y ZIP con efecto espacial estructurado y no estructurado. La estadística de exploración SCAN se utilizó para analizar la ocurrencia de clusters de casos. Se identificaron clusters de casos de alto riesgo en municipios que componen la Región Intermedia de São Paulo. En el modelo ZIP se observaron como factores de riesgo a nivel municipal las variables jefes de hogar menores de 18 años (RR ajustado = 1,39; ICr95%: 1,27-1,53), desigualdad en la distribución de renta (RR ajustado = 36,67; ICr95%: 26,36-51,15), desempleo en mayores de 18 años (RR ajustado = 1,10; ICr95%: 1,08-1,12) y alumbrado público inexistente (RR ajustado = 1,05; ICr95%: 1,04-1,05). En los modelos ZIP con efecto espacial estructurado y no estructurado, se identificaron como factores de riesgo los indicadores jefe de hogar menor de 18 años (RR ajustado = 1,36; ICr95%: 1,04-1,90) y la desigualdad en la distribución de los ingresos de trabajo (RR ajustado = 3,12; ICr95%: 1,02- 9,48). En ambos modelos, la cobertura de los agentes de salud fue un factor protector. Los hallazgos evidencian la importancia de intensificar las acciones de vigilancia del sarampión vinculadas a la Estrategia de Salud Familiar, especialmente en las zonas de mayor vulnerabilidad social, para garantizar una cobertura de la vacunación de manera equitativa y satisfactoria, además de reducir el riesgo de reemergencia de la enfermedad.

Measles resurgence in Brazil: analysis of the 2019 epidemic in the state of São Paulo / Ressurgimento do sarampo no Brasil: análise da epidemia de 2019 no estado de São Paulo

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the epidemiological profile of cases and the pattern of spatial diffusion of the largest measles epidemic in Brazil that occurred in the post-elimination period in the state of São Paulo. METHOD A cross-sectional study based on confirmed measles cases in 2019. Bivariate analysis was performed for socioeconomic, clinical, and epidemiological variables, according to prior vaccination and hospitalization, combined with an analysis of spatial diffusion of cases using the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method. RESULTS Of the 15,598 confirmed cases, 2,039 were hospitalized and 17 progressed to death. The epidemic peak occurred in epidemiological week 33, after confirmation of the first case, in the epidemiological week 6. Most cases were male (52.1%), aged between 18 and 29 years (38.7%), identified as whites (70%). Young adults (39.7%) and children under five years (32.8%) were the most affected age groups. A higher proportion of previous vaccination was observed in whites as compared to Blacks, browns, yellows and indigenous people (p < 0.001), as well as in the most educated group compared to the other categories (p < 0.001). The risk of hospitalization was higher in children than in the older age group (RI = 2.19; 95%CI: 1.66-2.88), as well as in the unvaccinated than in the vaccinated (RI = 1.59; 95%CI: 1.45-1.75). The pattern of diffusion by contiguity combined with diffusion by relocation followed the urban hierarchy of the main cities' regions of influence. CONCLUSION In addition to routine vaccination in children, the findings indicate the need for immunization campaigns for young adults. In addition, studies that seek to investigate the occurrence of clusters of vulnerable populations, prone to lower vaccination coverage, are essential to broaden the understanding of the dynamics of transmission and, thus, reorienting control strategies that ensure disease elimination.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Analisar o perfil epidemiológico dos casos e o padrão de difusão espacial da maior epidemia de sarampo do Brasil ocorrida no período pós-eliminação, no estado de São Paulo. MÉTODO Estudo transversal, baseado em casos confirmados de sarampo em 2019. Foi conduzida análise bivariada das variáveis socioeconômicas, clínicas e epidemiológicas, segundo vacinação prévia e ocorrência de hospitalização, combinada a uma análise de difusão espacial dos casos por meio da metodologia de interpolação pela ponderação do inverso da distância. RESULTADOS Dos 15.598 casos confirmados, 2.039 foram hospitalizados e 17 evoluíram para o óbito. O pico epidêmico ocorreu na semana epidemiológica 33, após a confirmação do primeiro caso, na semana epidemiológica 6. A maioria dos casos era homem (52,1%), com idade entre 18 e 29 anos (38,7%), identificados como brancos (70%). Adultos jovens (39,7%) e menores de cinco anos (32,8%) foram as faixas etárias mais acometidas. Observou-se maior proporção de vacinação prévia em brancos, quando comparados a pretos, pardos, amarelos e indígenas (p < 0,001), assim como no grupo mais escolarizado, quando comparado às demais categorias (p < 0,001). O risco de hospitalização foi maior em crianças, quando comparado à faixa etária mais idosa (RI = 2,19; IC95% 1,66-2,88), assim como entre não vacinados, quando comparado a vacinados (RI = 1,59; IC95% 1,45-1,75). O padrão de difusão por contiguidade combinado à difusão por realocação seguiu a hierarquia urbana das regiões de influência das principais cidades. CONCLUSÃO Além da vacinação de rotina em crianças, os achados indicam a necessidade de campanhas de imunização de adultos jovens. Adicionalmente, estudos que busquem investigar a ocorrência de clusters de populações vulneráveis, propensas a menor cobertura de vacinação, são essenciais para ampliar a compreensão sobre a dinâmica de transmissão da doença e, assim, reorientar estratégias de controle que garantam a eliminação da doença.

Entomo-virological surveillance strategy for dengue, Zika and chikungunya arboviruses in field-caught Aedes mosquitoes in an endemic urban area of the Northeast of Brazil.

Aedes spp. are considered the main vectors of dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses in the world. Arbovirus detection in Aedes mosquitoes can alert authorities to possible outbreaks, reducing the impact of these diseases. The purpose of this study was to perform an operational strategy for virological surveillance of DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV in adult Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes captured at different key-sites in an endemic urban area of the Northeast Region of Brazil, with the prospect of discussing its role as part of an alert system for outbreaks in critical areas. Residential and non-residential premises located in areas of recent of transmission of these arboviruses were selected for adult mosquito collection in the rainy season (July) of 2018. A total of 1068 adult mosquitoes were collected: 946 Culex quinquefasciatus (88.6%), 118 Ae. aegypti (11.0%), two Ae. albopictus (0.2%) and two Aedes taeniorhynchus (0.2%). Among the premises surveyed, recycling points (N = 48, 40.7%), municipal schools (N = 36, 30.5%) and junkyards (N = 31, 26.2%) were the places with the highest frequency of adult Ae. aegypti. Health units (including primary health care facilities and one hospital) (N = 23; 19.5%) together with residential premises (N = 11; 9.3%) presented the lowest frequencies. Total RNAs of the samples were extracted from Aedes mosquitoes and a nested reverse transcription (RT) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay for detecting and typing DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV was performed. From the 37 Aedes spp. pools analyzed (35 Ae. aegypti, one Ae. albopictus and one Ae. taeniorhynchus), seven were positive for DENV-3, including three pools containing Ae. aegypti females, one containing an Ae. aegypti engorged female and three comprised of Ae. aegypti males. The positive pools were composed of mosquitoes collected in public schools, health units, junkyards, recycling points and residential premises. Our findings reinforce the importance of continuous virological surveillance in Aedes mosquitoes, as a useful tool for detecting arboviruses circulation in vulnerable areas, even in low infestation seasons.

Tuberculosis as a marker of inequities in the context of socio-spatial transformation.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze the association between the incidence of tuberculosis and different socioeconomic indicators in a territory of intense transformation of the urban space. METHODS: This is an ecological study, whose analysis units were the neighborhoods of the city of Itaboraí, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The data have been analyzed by generalized linear models. The response variable was incidence of tuberculosis from 2006 to 2011. The independent variables were the socio-demographic indicators. The spatial distribution of tuberculosis was analyzed with the elaboration of thematic maps. RESULTS: The results have shown a significant association between the incidence of tuberculosis and variables that reflect different dimensions of living conditions, such as consumer goods, housing conditions and its surroundings, agglomeration of population, and income distribution. CONCLUSIONS: The disproportionate incidence of tuberculosis in populations with worse living conditions highlights the persistence of socioeconomic determinants in the reproduction of the disease. Different municipal public sectors need to better articulate with local tuberculosis control programs to reduce the social burden of the disease. OBJETIVO: Analisar a associação entre incidência de tuberculose e diferentes indicadores socioeconômicos em território em intensa transformação do espaço urbano. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico, cujas unidades de análise foram os bairros do município de Itaboraí, RJ. Os dados foram analisados por modelos lineares generalizados. A variável resposta foi incidência de tuberculose de 2006 a 2011. As variáveis independentes foram os indicadores sociodemográficos. A distribuição espacial da tuberculose foi analisada por meio da elaboração de mapas temáticos. RESULTADOS: Os resultados apontaram associação significativa entre a incidência de tuberculose e variáveis que refletem diferentes dimensões de condições de vida, como bens de consumo, condições de moradia e seu entorno, aglomeração populacional e distribuição de renda. CONCLUSÕES: O acometimento desproporcional da tuberculose em grupos populacionais com piores condições de vida ressalta a persistência dos determinantes socioeconômicos na reprodução da doença. Faz-se necessária a melhor articulação de diferentes setores públicos municipais com o programa local de controle da tuberculose visando à redução da carga social da doença.

Tuberculosis as a marker of inequities in the context of socio-spatial transformation / Tuberculose como marcador de iniquidades em um contexto de transformação socioespacial

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE This study aims to analyze the association between the incidence of tuberculosis and different socioeconomic indicators in a territory of intense transformation of the urban space. METHODS This is an ecological study, whose analysis units were the neighborhoods of the city of Itaboraí, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The data have been analyzed by generalized linear models. The response variable was incidence of tuberculosis from 2006 to 2011. The independent variables were the socio-demographic indicators. The spatial distribution of tuberculosis was analyzed with the elaboration of thematic maps. RESULTS The results have shown a significant association between the incidence of tuberculosis and variables that reflect different dimensions of living conditions, such as consumer goods, housing conditions and its surroundings, agglomeration of population, and income distribution. CONCLUSIONS The disproportionate incidence of tuberculosis in populations with worse living conditions highlights the persistence of socioeconomic determinants in the reproduction of the disease. Different municipal public sectors need to better articulate with local tuberculosis control programs to reduce the social burden of the disease.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Analisar a associação entre incidência de tuberculose e diferentes indicadores socioeconômicos em território em intensa transformação do espaço urbano. MÉTODOS Estudo ecológico, cujas unidades de análise foram os bairros do município de Itaboraí, RJ. Os dados foram analisados por modelos lineares generalizados. A variável resposta foi incidência de tuberculose de 2006 a 2011. As variáveis independentes foram os indicadores sociodemográficos. A distribuição espacial da tuberculose foi analisada por meio da elaboração de mapas temáticos. RESULTADOS Os resultados apontaram associação significativa entre a incidência de tuberculose e variáveis que refletem diferentes dimensões de condições de vida, como bens de consumo, condições de moradia e seu entorno, aglomeração populacional e distribuição de renda. CONCLUSÕES O acometimento desproporcional da tuberculose em grupos populacionais com piores condições de vida ressalta a persistência dos determinantes socioeconômicos na reprodução da doença. Faz-se necessária a melhor articulação de diferentes setores públicos municipais com o programa local de controle da tuberculose visando à redução da carga social da doença.

Occurrence of severe dengue in Rio de Janeiro: an ecological study

Introduction This study aimed to analyze the relationship between the incidence of severe dengue during the 2008 epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and socioeconomic indicators, as well as indicators of health service availability and previous circulation of the dengue virus serotype-3 (DENV-3). Methods In this ecological study, the units of analysis were the districts of Rio de Janeiro. The data were incorporated into generalized linear models, and the incidence of severe dengue in each district was the outcome variable. Results The districts with more cases of dengue fever in the 2001 epidemic and a higher percentage of residents who declared their skin color or race as black had higher incidence rates of severe dengue in the 2008 epidemic [incidence rate ratio (IRR)= 1.21; 95% confidence interval (95%CI)= 1.05-1.40 and IRR= 1.34; 95%CI= 1.16-1.54, respectively]. In contrast, the districts with Family Health Strategy (FHS) clinics were more likely to have lower incidence rates of severe dengue in the 2008 epidemic (IRR= 0.81; 95%CI= 0.70-0.93). Conclusions At the ecological level, our findings suggest the persistence of health inequalities in this region of Brazil that are possibly due to greater social vulnerability among the self-declared black population. ...

Conditions of the household and peridomicile and severe dengue: a case-control study in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: The potential influence of high-vector-density environments where people are supposedly more exposed to mosquito bites may have a relation to the clinical severity of dengue fever, an association that has been poorly discussed in the literature. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed at analyzing the association between anthropic environmental factors, particularly those related to the conditions of domicile and peridomicile, and the occurrence of severe dengue cases during the 2008 epidemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control study with a sample of 88 severe patients aged 2-18. They were selected through chart review in four children's tertiary care centers. The 367 controls were neighbors of the cases, paired by age. Data were collected through interviews and systematic assessment of house conditions as well as peridomicile area conditions, and they were later analyzed by conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: The presence of three or more high-volume capacity containers, which were without a lid or were inadequately sealed (water tanks, wells, cisterns, cement tanks, and pools), was significantly more frequent in households with severe cases when compared with households of controls (OR=1.6; CI 95%=1.36-20.01; p=0.015). DISCUSSION: The presence of such larger reservoirs that could potentially produce more adult forms of the vector is consistent with a situation where people are more exposed to mosquito bites, and consequently are more prone to have multiple infections over a short period of time. CONCLUSION: The emergence of severe dengue cases in a high-transmission context underpins the importance of constant vigilance and interventions in those types of reservoirs, which result from precarious household structures and irregular water supply services.

Occurrence of severe dengue in Rio de Janeiro: an ecological study.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to analyze the relationship between the incidence of severe dengue during the 2008 epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and socioeconomic indicators, as well as indicators of health service availability and previous circulation of the dengue virus serotype-3 (DENV-3). METHODS: In this ecological study, the units of analysis were the districts of Rio de Janeiro. The data were incorporated into generalized linear models, and the incidence of severe dengue in each district was the outcome variable. RESULTS: The districts with more cases of dengue fever in the 2001 epidemic and a higher percentage of residents who declared their skin color or race as black had higher incidence rates of severe dengue in the 2008 epidemic [incidence rate ratio (IRR)= 1.21; 95% confidence interval (95%CI)= 1.05-1.40 and IRR= 1.34; 95%CI= 1.16-1.54, respectively]. In contrast, the districts with Family Health Strategy (FHS) clinics were more likely to have lower incidence rates of severe dengue in the 2008 epidemic (IRR= 0.81; 95%CI= 0.70-0.93). CONCLUSIONS: At the ecological level, our findings suggest the persistence of health inequalities in this region of Brazil that are possibly due to greater social vulnerability among the self-declared black population. Additionally, the protective effect of FHS clinics may be due to the ease of access to other levels of care in the health system or to a reduced vulnerability to dengue transmission that is afforded by local practices to promote health.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms in candidate genes and dengue severity in children: a case-control, functional and meta-analysis study.

Dengue is an arthropod-borne emerging viral disease with high morbidity and mortality risk in tropical countries like Brazil. Clinical manifestations are vast, ranging from asymptomatic to most severe forms of dengue such as shock. Previous data have shown that host genetics play a role in disease susceptibility and severity. Herein, we have tested the association of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at TNF, IL10, MIF, DCSIGN, CLEC5A, NOD2, CCR5 and MRC1 as candidate genes using a matched case-control study design including 88 severe children cases of dengue patients and 335 healthy unrelated subjects that was also separated in IgG(+) and IgG(-) controls. We demonstrated that the TT genotype of CLEC5A SNP (rs1285933 C>T) is associated with dengue severity (OR=2.25; p=0.03) and that GG genotype of -336G>A DCSIGN (CD209) SNP is associated with protection to severe dengue (OR=0.12; p=0.04). Both comparisons were borderline significant when cases were compared with IgG(+) controls subgroup. Nevertheless, genotype-phenotype correlation was also assessed using serum levels of TNF from infected patients at the onset of dengue fever, and CT/TT carriers in CLEC5A secreted higher levels of TNF than CC individuals in 5-7 days of infection. No significant difference was observed in TNF levels between genotypes GG versus AG/AA at DCSIGN promoter. Next, we performed a meta-analysis retrieving results from the literature for -336G>A DCSIGN and -308G>A TNF SNPs demonstrating that the consensus estimates of these SNPs indicated no association with dengue severity (when compared to Dengue fever) in the overall analysis. But, a subgroup analysis in the -336G>A DCSIGN, the G allele was associated with severe dengue susceptibility in Asians (ORallele=2.77; p=0.0001; ORcarriers=2.99; p=0.0001) and protection in Brazilians (ORallele=0.66; p=0.013). In summary, our results suggest that genetic variations at CLEC5A increase the risk and regulate TNF secretion in dengue severity among Brazilians. Also, combined data of the literature suggest population-specific effect of the -336 DCSIGN SNP more prominent in Asians and in a different direction than Brazilians.

From primary care to hospitalization: clinical warning signs of severe dengue fever in children and adolescents during an outbreak in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

We analyzed factors associated with severe cases of dengue in children and adolescents hospitalized during the 2007/2008 epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This is a retrospective case-control study that covers 88 cases of severe dengue in patients admitted to four tertiary care children's hospitals. Controls consisted of 22 children with non-severe dengue living in the same neighborhood as the patients with severe dengue. Differences in prevalence of the clinical signs - abdominal pain, breathing difficulty, drowsiness or irritability - emerged on the third day after the onset of symptoms, in the febrile stage. Cases and controls received first medical care at the same clinical stage of disease. However, hospital admission of severe cases occurred later, on average between the third and fourth day after the onset of the disease. Early discharge of patients with fever whose condition could have progressed to severe dengue may have been a consequence of the type of medical assistance provided by primary care units, suggesting deficiencies both in the use of the risk classification protocol and patient triage.

From primary care to hospitalization: clinical warning signs of severe dengue fever in children and adolescents during an outbreak in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil / Da atenção primária à hospitalização: sinais clínicos de alarme para dengue grave em crianças e adolescentes durante uma epidemia no Rio de Janeiro, Brasil / De la atención primaria a la hospitalización: señales clínicas de alarma del dengue grave en niños y adolescentes durante una epidemia en Río de Janeiro, Brasil

We analyzed factors associated with severe cases of dengue in children and adolescents hospitalized during the 2007/2008 epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This is a retrospective case-control study that covers 88 cases of severe dengue in patients admitted to four tertiary care children's hospitals. Controls consisted of 22 children with non-severe dengue living in the same neighborhood as the patients with severe dengue. Differences in prevalence of the clinical signs - abdominal pain, breathing difficulty, drowsiness or irritability - emerged on the third day after the onset of symptoms, in the febrile stage. Cases and controls received first medical care at the same clinical stage of disease. However, hospital admission of severe cases occurred later, on average between the third and fourth day after the onset of the disease. Early discharge of patients with fever whose condition could have progressed to severe dengue may have been a consequence of the type of medical assistance provided by primary care units, suggesting deficiencies both in the use of the risk classification protocol and patient triage.

Foram avaliados fatores associados à ocorrência de casos graves de dengue em crianças/adolescentes hospitalizados durante a epidemia de 2007/2008 no Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. Trata-se de estudo caso-controle retrospectivo com 88 casos graves de dengue, admitidos em quatro hospitais de atenção terciária infantil. Os controles foram 22 crianças com dengue não grave residentes na vizinhança dos casos. Foram observadas diferenças na prevalência de sinais clínicos - dor abdominal, dificuldade respiratória, sonolência/irritabilidade - a partir do terceiro dia do início dos sintomas, ainda na presença da febre. Casos e controles receberam o primeiro atendimento médico no mesmo estágio clínico da doença. Contudo, as hospitalizações dos casos graves ocorreram mais tardiamente, em média entre o terceiro e quarto dia da doença. A liberação precoce de pacientes com quadro febril e potencialmente graves pode ter sido consequência do atendimento médico prestado nas unidades de atenção primária, sugerindo deficiências na aplicação do protocolo de classificação de risco de dengue e triagem de pacientes.

Fueron evaluados factores asociados a la ocurrencia de casos graves de dengue en niños/adolescentes hospitalizados, durante la epidemia de 2007/2008 en Río de Janeiro, Brasil. Se trata de un estudio caso-control retrospectivo con 88 casos graves de dengue, admitidos en cuatro hospitales de atención terciaria infantil. Los controles se efectuaron con 22 niños con dengue no grave, residentes en los alrededores de los casos. Se observaron diferencias en la prevalencia de señales clínicas -dolor abdominal, dificultad respiratoria, somnolencia/irritabilidad- a partir del tercer día del inicio de los síntomas, todavía con presencia de fiebre. Casos y controles recibieron la primera atención médica en la misma fase clínica de la enfermedad. No obstante, las hospitalizaciones de los casos graves se produjeron más tardíamente, en media entre el tercer y cuarto día de la enfermedad. El alta precoz de pacientes con cuadro febril, y potencialmente graves, puede haber sido consecuencia de la atención médica prestada en las unidades de atención primaria, sugiriendo deficiencias en la aplicación del protocolo de clasificación de riesgo de dengue y selección de pacientes.

Time trend of the male proportion at birth in Brazil, 1979-2004.

Several studies suggest that exposure to environmental endocrine disrupters can reduce the number of male births, and therefore, the male proportion at birth (also denominated birth ratio or sex ratio at birth) can be used as a sentinel health indicator. This work aimed to analyze the trend of male births in Brazil, according to their distribution by states and capitals. An ecological descriptive time series was carried out using polynomial regression, showing a declining trend for male proportion at birth in Brazil (1979-1994), followed by an upward trend until 2004. A decline on the proportion of male births was observed in Brazil between 1979 and 1993, followed by a subsequent rise of this ratio between 1995 and 2004, wherein the mean proportion of male births in Brazil rose from 51.05 to 51.18, representing a relative increase of 0.25%. The states of São Paulo (Southwest region) and Acre (Western Amazon), as well as some capitals-Cuiabá (Western Region), Palmas (Amazon) and Rio Branco (Amazon)-showed increasing trends, which suggests the influence of socio-demographic changes. In contrast, a declining trend in the State of Ceará State (Northeast region), with a 0.35% yearly decrease was observed. As a whole, these results suggest the influence of different environmental factors (demographic changes, public health services distribution, and population exposure to endocrine disruptor substances) influencing the time trend of birth ratio in the Brazilian population during the last decades.

Consumo de agrotóxicos e distribuição temporal da proporção de nascimentos masculinos no Estado do Paraná, Brasil / Agricultural toxic use and temporal distribution of male birth rate in the state of Paraná, Brazil

OBJETIVO: Investigar a tendência temporal da proporção de nascimentos masculinos para o Estado do Paraná no período entre 1994 e 2004 e a correlação dessa tendência com o volume de vendas de agrotóxicos no Estado em 1985. MÉTODO: No presente estudo ecológico, foram empregados como fontes de dados o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (volume de vendas de agrotóxicos) e o banco DATASUS (nascidos vivos segundo o sexo). Foram analisados 308 municípios, divididos em quartis conforme o consumo de agrotóxicos, resultando em quatro estratos contendo 77 municípios cada um, sendo o quarto quartil o de maior consumo. A proporção de nascimentos masculinos foi obtida ano a ano para cada município e, ao final do período (1994 a 2004), um valor mediano foi calculado para cada uma das localidades. Foi realizada uma análise bivariada e calculados os coeficientes de Pearson para cada quartil de municípios. Uma análise exploratória e comparativa dos quartis foi realizada, na qual se calculou o consumo médio per capita para os mesmos. Posteriormente, foram selecionados e analisados individualmente 10 municípios com intensa atividade agropecuária quanto ao perfil agrícola e à tendência da proporção de nascimentos masculinos ao longo do período de estudo. RESULTADOS: Foi observada uma discreta tendência de declínio na proporção de nascidos vivos do sexo masculino para o Estado como um todo. A magnitude desse declínio foi visivelmente maior quando se analisou individualmente o grupo de 10 municípios, cujos valores observados ao final da série mostraram-se muito abaixo daqueles normalmente descritos na literatura (proporção de nascimentos masculinos < 50 por cento). Em relação aos quartis, todos apresentaram correlação negativa, ainda que sem significância estatística. CONCLUSÕES: A tendência de declínio estatisticamente significativa na proporção de nascimentos masculinos em alguns municípios paranaenses sugere que o fenômeno possa ser decorrente...

OBJECTIVE: To determine the trend in male birth rates from 1994-2004 in the state of Paraná, Brazil, and whether a correlation exists between this trend and the state's agricultural toxic sales in 1985. METHOD: This ecological study employed data from the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (agricultural toxic sales) and the Unified Health System's data-base "DATASUS" (sex ratio at birth). Three hundred and eight (308) municipalities were analyzed, divided into quartiles by pesticide usage. Each of the four resulting quartiles included 77 municipalities, with the fourth quartile representing the highest consumption. The male birth rate was obtained for each year for each municipality. Then the median rate was calculated for the entire period (1994-2004) for each municipality. A bivariate analysis was carried out. Pearson coefficients were calculated for each quartile. An exploratory and comparative analysis of quartiles was performed, and the mean per capita consumption was calculated for each quartile. Ten municipalities with intense agricultural activity were then selected and analyzed individually in terms of their agricultural profile and male birth rate trend during the study period. RESULTS: A discrete decline was observed in the rate of live male births for the entire state. The magnitude of this decline was more evident when the group of 10 municipalities was analyzed: in this group, the rates observed at the end of the study period were much lower than those usually described in the literature (male birth rate < 50 percent). Pearson's correlation was negative for all quartiles, although without statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: The statistically significant trend towards a decline in male births in some of the Paraná municipalities suggests that this phenomenon may be a result of a high level of environmental exposure to pesticides. Future studies should confirm and measure the impact of environmental pesticide...