A mathematical, classical stratification modeling approach to disentangling the impact of weather on infectious diseases: A case study using spatio-temporally disaggregated Campylobacter surveillance data for England and Wales.

Disentangling the impact of the weather on transmission of infectious diseases is crucial for health protection, preparedness and prevention. Because weather factors are co-incidental and partly correlated, we have used geography to separate out the impact of individual weather parameters on other seasonal variables using campylobacteriosis as a case study. Campylobacter infections are found worldwide and are the most common bacterial food-borne disease in developed countries, where they exhibit consistent but country specific seasonality. We developed a novel conditional incidence method, based on classical stratification, exploiting the long term, high-resolution, linkage of approximately one-million campylobacteriosis cases over 20 years in England and Wales with local meteorological datasets from diagnostic laboratory locations. The predicted incidence of campylobacteriosis increased by 1 case per million people for every 5° (Celsius) increase in temperature within the range of 8°-15°. Limited association was observed outside that range. There were strong associations with day-length. Cases tended to increase with relative humidity in the region of 75-80%, while the associations with rainfall and wind-speed were weaker. The approach is able to examine multiple factors and model how complex trends arise, e.g. the consistent steep increase in campylobacteriosis in England and Wales in May-June and its spatial variability. This transparent and straightforward approach leads to accurate predictions without relying on regression models and/or postulating specific parameterisations. A key output of the analysis is a thoroughly phenomenological description of the incidence of the disease conditional on specific local weather factors. The study can be crucially important to infer the elusive mechanism of transmission of campylobacteriosis; for instance, by simulating the conditional incidence for a postulated mechanism and compare it with the phenomenological patterns as benchmark. The findings challenge the assumption, commonly made in statistical models, that the transformed mean rate of infection for diseases like campylobacteriosis is a mere additive and combination of the environmental variables.

Investigating the Health Impacts of Climate Change among People with Pre-Existing Mental Health Problems: A Scoping Review.

Climate change is the greatest threat to global public health, although the impacts on mental health are relatively understudied. Furthermore, there is a lack of consensus about the effects of climate change on individuals with pre-existing mental health problems. This review aimed to identify the health impacts of climate change on people with pre-existing mental health problems. The search was conducted across three databases; studies were included if they involved participants who had mental health problem(s) before a climate-driven event and reported on health outcomes post-event. A total of thirty-one studies met the full inclusion criteria. The study characteristics included 6 climate-driven events: heat events, floods, wildfires, wildfire and flood, hurricanes, and droughts, and 16 categories of pre-existing mental health problems, with depression, and non-specified mental health problems being the most common. The majority of the studies (90%, n = 28) suggest an association between the presence of pre-existing mental health problems and the likelihood of adverse health impacts (e.g., increased mortality risk, new symptom presentation, and an exacerbation of symptoms). To mitigate the exacerbation of health inequalities, people with pre-existing mental health problems should be included in adaption guidance and/or plans that mitigate the health impacts of climate change, future policy, reports, and frameworks.

Modelling the current and future temperature suitability of the UK for the vector Hyalomma marginatum (Acari: Ixodidae).

Hyalomma marginatum is the main vector of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and spotted fever rickettsiae in Europe. The distribution of H. marginatum is currently restricted to parts of southern Europe, northern Africa and Asia, and one of the drivers limiting distribution is climate, particularly temperature. As temperatures rise with climate change, parts of northern Europe currently considered too cold for H. marginatum to be able to survive may become suitable, including the United Kingdom (UK), presenting a potential public health concern. Here we use a series of modelling methodologies to understand whether mean air temperatures across the UK during 2000-2019 were sufficient for H. marginatum nymphs to moult into adult stages and be able to overwinter in the UK if they were introduced on migratory birds. We then used UK-specific climate projections (UKCP18) to determine whether predicted temperatures would be sufficient to allow survival in future. We found that spring temperatures in parts of the UK during 2000-2019 were warm enough for predicted moulting to occur, but in all years except 2006, temperatures during September to December were too cold for overwintering to occur. Our analysis of the projections data suggests that whilst temperatures in the UK during September to December will increase in future, they are likely to remain below the threshold required for H. marginatum populations to become established.

Impact of green space connectivity on urban tick presence, density and Borrelia infected ticks in different habitats and seasons in three cities in southern England.

Understanding the effects of local habitat and wider landscape connectivity factors on tick presence, nymph density and Borrelia species (spp.) prevalence in the tick population is important for identifying the public health risk from Lyme borreliosis. This multi-city study collected data in three southern England cities (Bath, Bristol, and Southampton) during spring, summer, and autumn in 2017. Focusing specifically on urban green space used for recreation which were clearly in urbanised areas, 72 locations were sampled. Additionally, geospatial datasets on urban green space coverage within 250 m and 1 km of sampling points, as well as distance to woodland were incorporated into statistical models. Distance to woodland was negatively associated with tick presence and nymph density, particularly during spring and summer. Furthermore, we observed an interaction effect between habitat and season for tick presence and nymph density, with woodland habitat having greater tick presence and nymph density during spring. Borrelia spp. infected Ixodes ricinus were found in woodland, woodland edge and under canopy habitats in Bath and Southampton. Overall Borrelia spp. prevalence in nymphs was 2.8%, similar to wider UK studies assessing prevalence in Ixodes ricinus in rural areas. Bird-related Borrelia genospecies dominated across sites, suggesting bird reservoir hosts may be important in urban green space settings for feeding and infecting ticks. Whilst overall density of infected nymphs across the three cities was low (0.03 per 100 m2), risk should be further investigated by incorporating data on tick bites acquired in urban settings, and subsequent Lyme borreliosis transmission.

Mapping and monitoring tick (Acari, Ixodida) distribution, seasonality, and host associations in the United Kingdom between 2017 and 2020.

Tick-borne disease risk is intrinsically linked to the distribution of tick vector species. To assess risk and anticipate disease emergence, an understanding of tick distribution, host associations, and seasonality is needed. This can be achieved, to some extent, using passive surveillance supported by engagement with the public, animal health, and public health experts. The Tick Surveillance Scheme (TSS) collects data and maps tick distribution across the United Kingdom (UK). Between 2017 and 2020, 3720 tick records were received and 39 tick species were detected. Most records were acquired in the UK, with a subset associated with recent overseas travel. The dominant UK acquired species was Ixodes ricinus (Ixodida: Ixodidae, Linnaeus), the main vector of Lyme borreliosis. Records peaked during May and June, highlighting a key risk period for tick bites. Other key UK species were detected, including Dermacentor reticulatus (Ixodida: Ixodidae, Fabricius) and Haemaphysalis punctata (Ixodida: Ixodidae, Canestrini & Fanzago) as well as several rarer species that may present novel tick-borne disease risk to humans and other animals. Updated tick distribution maps highlight areas in the UK where tick exposure has occurred. There is evidence of increasing human tick exposure over time, including during the COVID-19 pandemic, but seasonal patterns remain unchanged.

Systematic review on the non-vectorial transmission of Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEv).

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is an infection caused by the Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEv) and it is common in Europe. The virus is predominantly transmitted by ticks, but other non-vectorial modes of transmission are possible. This systematic review synthesises the epidemiological impact of non-vectorial modes of TBEv transmission in Europe. 41 studies were included comprising of 1308 TBE cases. Alimentary (36 studies), handling infected material (3 studies),  blood-borne (1 study), solid organ transplant (1 study) were identified as potential routes of TBEv transmission; however, no evidence of vertical transmission from mother to offspring was reported (2 studies). Consumption of unpasteurised milk/milk products was the most common vehicle of transmission and significantly increased the risk of TBE by three-fold (pooled RR 3.05, 95% CI 1.53 to 6.11; 4 studies). This review also confirms handling infected material, blood-borne and solid organ transplant as potential routes of TBEv transmission. It is important to tracing back to find the vehicle of the viral infection and to promote vaccination as it remains a mainstay for the prevention of TBE.

Ixodes ricinus and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in the Royal Parks of London, UK.

Assessing the risk of tick-borne disease in areas with high visitor numbers is important from a public health perspective. Evidence suggests that tick presence, density, infection prevalence and the density of infected ticks can vary between habitats within urban green space, suggesting that the risk of Lyme borreliosis transmission can also vary. This study assessed nymph density, Borrelia prevalence and the density of infected nymphs across a range of habitat types in nine parks in London which receive millions of visitors each year. Ixodes ricinus were found in only two of the nine locations sampled, and here they were found in all types of habitat surveyed. Established I. ricinus populations were identified in the two largest parks, both of which had resident free-roaming deer populations. Highest densities of nymphs (15.68 per 100 m2) and infected nymphs (1.22 per 100 m2) were associated with woodland and under canopy habitats in Richmond Park, but ticks infected with Borrelia were found across all habitat types surveyed. Nymphs infected with Borrelia (7.9%) were only reported from Richmond Park, where Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto and Borrelia afzelii were identified as the dominant genospecies. Areas with short grass appeared to be less suitable for ticks and maintaining short grass in high footfall areas could be a good strategy for reducing the risk of Lyme borreliosis transmission to humans in such settings. In areas where this would create conflict with existing practices which aim to improve and/or meet historic landscape, biodiversity and public access goals, promoting public health awareness of tick-borne disease risks could also be utilised.

The Unexpected Holiday Souvenir: The Public Health Risk to UK Travellers from Ticks Acquired Overseas.

Overseas travel to regions where ticks are found can increase travellers' exposure to ticks and pathogens that may be unfamiliar to medical professionals in their home countries. Previous studies have detailed non-native tick species removed from recently returned travellers, occasionally leading to travel-associated human cases of exotic tick-borne disease. There are 20 species of tick endemic to the UK, yet UK travellers can be exposed to many other non-native species whilst overseas. Here, we report ticks received by Public Health England's Tick Surveillance Scheme from humans with recent travel history between January 2006 and December 2018. Altogether, 16 tick species were received from people who had recently travelled overseas. Confirmed imports (acquired outside of the UK) were received from people who recently travelled to 22 countries. Possible imports (acquired abroad or within the UK) were received from people who had recently travelled to eight European countries. Species-specific literature reviews highlighted nine of the sixteen tick species are known to vector at least one tick-borne pathogen to humans in the country of acquisition, suggesting travellers exposed to ticks may be at risk of being bitten by a species that is a known vector, with implications for novel tick-borne disease transmission to travellers.

Update on the presence of Ixodes ricinus at the western limit of its range and the prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato.

It is often suggested that due to climate and environmental policy changes, the risk from tick-borne disease is increasing, particularly at the geographical limits of the vector distribution. Our project aimed to determine whether this was true for the risk of Lyme borreliosis in Ireland which is the western-most limit of Ixodes ricinus, the European vector of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato. The availability of a historical data set of tick infection rates compiled in the 1990s represented a unique opportunity as it provided a baseline against which current data could be compared. Following construction of a spatial predictive model for the presence and absence of I. ricinus based on data from 491 GPS locations visited between 2016 and 2019, 1404 questing nymphs from 27 sites were screened for the presence of Borrelia spp. using a TaqMan PCR aimed at the 23S rRNA gene sequence. All positive ticks were further analysed by nested PCR amplification and sequence analysis of the 5 S-23 S intergenic spacer. The model indicated that areas with the highest probability of tick presence were mostly located along the western seaboard and the Shannon and Erne river catchments, coinciding with historical high incidence areas of bovine babesiosis, while the infection rate of questing nymphs with B. burgdorferi s.l. and the prevalence of the various genospecies have remained surprisingly stable over the last 3 decades. Clear communication of the potential disease risk arising from a tick bite is essential in order to allay undue concerns over tick-borne diseases among the general public.

Geographical Distribution of Ljungan Virus in Small Mammals in Europe.

Ljungan virus (LV), which belongs to the Parechovirus genus in the Picornaviridae family, was first isolated from bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in Sweden in 1998 and proposed as a zoonotic agent. To improve knowledge of the host association and geographical distribution of LV, tissues from 1685 animals belonging to multiple rodent and insectivore species from 12 European countries were screened for LV-RNA using reverse transcriptase (RT)-PCR. In addition, we investigated how the prevalence of LV-RNA in bank voles is associated with various intrinsic and extrinsic factors. We show that LV is widespread geographically, having been detected in at least one host species in nine European countries. Twelve out of 21 species screened were LV-RNA PCR positive, including, for the first time, the red vole (Myodes rutilus) and the root or tundra vole (Alexandromys formerly Microtus oeconomus), as well as in insectivores, including the bicolored white-toothed shrew (Crocidura leucodon) and the Valais shrew (Sorex antinorii). Results indicated that bank voles are the main rodent host for this virus (overall RT-PCR prevalence: 15.2%). Linear modeling of intrinsic and extrinsic factors that could impact LV prevalence showed a concave-down relationship between body mass and LV occurrence, so that subadults had the highest LV positivity, but LV in older animals was less prevalent. Also, LV prevalence was higher in autumn and lower in spring, and the amount of precipitation recorded during the 6 months preceding the trapping date was negatively correlated with the presence of the virus. Phylogenetic analysis on the 185 base pair species-specific sequence of the 5' untranslated region identified high genetic diversity (46.5%) between 80 haplotypes, although no geographical or host-specific patterns of diversity were detected.

Study of general practitioner consultations for tick bites at high, medium and low incidence areas for Lyme borreliosis in England and Wales.

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is a tick-borne disease caused by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato complex. In Europe, it is predominately transmitted by the sheep tick, Ixodes ricinus. Compared with other European countries, the United Kingdom (UK) is considered to have a low incidence of LB, although this varies regionally. To determine whether an association exists between tick bite consultations and LB incidence in the UK, retrospective questionnaires were sent to general practitioners (GPs) in high (Wiltshire), medium (Cumbria) and low (Wales) incidence areas. During 2011, the greatest incidence of consultations for tick bites was reported by GPs in Cumbria (204 consultations per 100,000 inhabitants), followed by Wiltshire (160 per 100,000 population) and Wales (54 per 100,000 population). In Wiltshire and Cumbria, GPs predominantly provided advice on tick removal, whilst Welsh GPs mostly advised patients on tick bite prevention. Focusing on Cumbria during 2011-2013, 72.5% of GPs removed ticks from patients (incidence of 101 consultations per 100,000 population), and more GPs diagnosed LB based on clinical features than laboratory-confirmed diagnoses. To date, this is the first study to investigate the incidence of tick bite consultations and LB in England and Wales.

Ticks on the Channel Islands and implications for public health.

The Channel Islands are British Crown dependencies located in the English Channel to the west of the Normandy coast in northern France. Whilst there have been studies investigating tick occurrence and distribution in different habitats on the mainland of the UK and in France, the Channel Islands have been relatively understudied. As such, little is known about whether the sheep tick, Ixodes ricinus, is present, and whether there is a potential risk of Lyme borreliosis on the Channel Islands. To ascertain the presence of I. ricinus on the three largest islands in the archipelago: Jersey, Guernsey and Alderney, surveys of ticks questing in the vegetation and ticks feeding on hosts were undertaken during April and May 2016. Across all three islands, the highest numbers of ticks were found in woodland habitats. Ixodes ricinus was the predominant questing tick species found on Jersey, and Ixodes ventalloi the most common questing tick species on Alderney and Guernsey, with little or no evidence of questing I. ricinus on either island. During field studies on small mammals, I. ricinus was the predominant tick species feeding on Jersey bank voles (Myodes glareolus caesarius), with Ixodes hexagonus the most common species infesting hedgehogs on Guernsey. We propose that the greater diversity of small mammals on Jersey may be important in supporting immature stages of I. ricinus, in contrast to Guernsey and Alderney. Morphological identification of tick species was confirmed by PCR sequencing based on amplification of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit one (cox1) gene (COI DNA barcoding). To date, there have been few records of human tick bites in the Channel Islands, suggesting that the current risk from tick-borne disease may be low, but continued reporting of any human tick bites, along with reporting of cases of Lyme borreliosis will be important for continued assessment of the impact of tick-borne diseases in the Channel Islands.

Seasonality and anatomical location of human tick bites in the United Kingdom.

Tick bites on humans can occur in a variety of habitats and may result in the transmission of tick-borne pathogens, such as the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis (LB), Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato. As the risk of transmission of this pathogen to the host increases with the duration of tick feeding, the recognition and removal of ticks as soon as possible following attachment is important for reducing the risk of infection. Performing a thorough body examination for ticks following potential exposure is recommended by tick awareness campaigns. Knowledge of where on the body feeding ticks are frequently found, and at which times of year peak tick exposure occurs, provides important information for public health messaging and may aid those bitten by ticks to engage more effectively with tick-checking behaviour. This paper summarizes human tick bites in the United Kingdom (UK) during 2013-2018 reported to Public Health England's passive Tick Surveillance Scheme and further examines the anatomical location and seasonality of bites from the most commonly encountered tick and LB vector Ixodes ricinus. A total of 1,328 tick records from humans were received of which 93% were I. ricinus. Humans were most commonly bitten by I. ricinus nymphs (70% bites). Tick bites were recorded on all parts of the body, but there were significant differences in their anatomical location on adults and children. Most tick bites on adults occurred on the legs (50%), whereas on children tick bites were mostly on the head and neck (43%). Bites from I. ricinus were recorded throughout the year but were most numerous during May to August. This study adds to the body of research on the seasonality and anatomical location of human tick bites in temperate Europe and highlights the importance of data collected through passive surveillance in addition to research and epidemiological studies.

Hyalomma rufipes on an untraveled horse: Is this the first evidence of Hyalomma nymphs successfully moulting in the United Kingdom?

During September 2018, a tick was submitted to Public Health England's Tick Surveillance Scheme for identification. The tick was sent from a veterinarian who removed it from a horse in Dorset, England, with no history of overseas travel. The tick was identified as a male Hyalomma rufipes using morphological and molecular methods and then tested for a range of tick-borne pathogens including; Alkhurma virus, Anaplasma, Babesia, Bhanja virus, Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic fever virus, Rickettsia and Theileria. The tick tested positive for Rickettsia aeschlimannii, a spotted fever group rickettsia linked to a number of human cases in Africa and Europe. This is the first time H. rufipes has been reported in the United Kingdom (UK), and the lack of travel by the horse (or any in-contact horses) suggests that this could also be the first evidence of successful moulting of a Hyalomma nymph in the UK. It is postulated that the tick was imported into the UK on a migratory bird as an engorged nymph which was able to complete its moult to the adult stage and find a host. This highlights that passive tick surveillance remains an important method for the detection of unusual species that may present a threat to public health in the UK. Horses are important hosts of Hyalomma sp. adults in their native range, therefore, further surveillance studies should be conducted to check horses for ticks in the months following spring bird migration; when imported nymphs may have had time to drop off their avian host and moult to adults. The potential human and animal health risks of such events occurring more regularly are discussed.

Surveillance of British ticks: An overview of species records, host associations, and new records of Ixodes ricinus distribution.

Public Health England's passive Tick Surveillance Scheme (TSS) records the distribution, seasonality and host associations of ticks submitted from across the United Kingdom (UK), and helps to inform the UK government on emerging tick-borne disease risks. Here we summarise data collected through surveillance during 2010-2016, and compare with previous TSS data from 2005 to 2009, particularly in relation to the primary Lyme borreliosis vector Ixodes ricinus. 4173 records were submitted, constituting >14,000 ticks; 97% were endemic tick records (13,833 ticks of 11 species), with an additional 97 records of imported ticks (438 ticks of 17 species). Tick submissions were mainly from veterinary professionals (n = 1954; 46.8%) and members of the public and amateur entomologists (n = 1600; 38.3%), as well as from academic institutions (n = 249; 6.0%), wildlife groups (n = 239; 5.7%) and health professionals (n = 131; 3.1%). The most commonly reported hosts of endemic ticks were dogs (n = 1593; 39.1% of all records), humans (n = 835; 20.5%) and cats (n = 569; 14%). New host associations were recorded for a number of tick species. Ixodes ricinus was the most frequently recorded endemic tick species (n = 2413; 59.2% of all records), followed by I. hexagonus (n = 1355; 33.2%), I. canisuga (n = 132; 3.2%) and I. frontalis (n = 56; 1.4%), with other species each making up <1% total records. 81% of I. ricinus recorded from humans were nymphs, whereas 93.4% of I. ricinus from companion animals were adults. Recent TSS records of I. ricinus in the UK add a considerable amount of new presence data for this species, particularly in the southern regions of England, and confirm that this species is widespread across the UK. The scheme remains a valuable method of collecting continuous national distribution data on ticks from a variety of host species.

Potential risk posed by the importation of ticks into the UK on animals: records from the Tick Surveillance Scheme.

In order to monitor important tick vectors in the UK, Public Health England's Tick Surveillance Scheme (TSS) receives specimens from across the country for identification. In recent years, an increasing number of these specimens have been removed from animals with a recent history of travel outside the UK. This paper presents all data collated by the TSS on ticks entering the country on recently travelled or imported animals since surveillance commenced in 2005. Ten different tick species representing six different genera were identified, entering the UK from 15 different countries. Key themes appear to be emerging from the last 10 years of data, including canine travel from Cyprus and Spain being associated with Rhipicephalus sanguineus importation, and canine travel from France being associated with the importation of multiple tick species and canine illness. In addition, more unusual importation routes have been uncovered, such as the importation of Hyalomma lusitanicum on a dog. Some companion animal owners may not be fully aware of the risks associated with ticks, and may not seek advice from a veterinarian before travel or importing a pet. Promoting awareness of ticks and tickborne disease risk during and after travel or animal importation is needed and veterinarians play an importation role in disseminating this information to their clients.