Adjusted Morbidity Groups and Intracerebral Haemorrhage: A Retrospective Primary Care Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Intracerebral haemorrhage rates are increasing among highly complex, elderly patients. The main objective of this study was to identify modifiable risk factors of intracerebral haemorrhage. METHODS: Multicentre, retrospective, community-based cohort study was conducted, including patients in the Adjusted Morbidity Group 4 with no history of intracerebral haemorrhage. Cases were obtained from electronic clinical records of the Catalan Institute of Health and were followed up for five years. The primary outcome was the occurrence of intracerebral haemorrhage during the study period. Demographic, clinical and pharmacological variables were included. Logistic regression analyses were carried out to detect prognostic variables for intracerebral haemorrhage. RESULTS: 4686 subjects were included; 170 (3.6%) suffered an intracerebral haemorrhage (85.8/10,000 person-year [95% CI 85.4 to 86.2]). The HAS-BLED score for intracerebral haemorrhage risk detection obtained the best AUC (0.7) when used in the highest complexity level (cut-off point ≥3). Associated independent risk factors were age ≥80 years, high complexity and use of antiplatelet agents. CONCLUSIONS: The Adjusted Morbidity Group 4 is associated with a high risk of intracerebral haemorrhage, particularly for highly complex patients and the use of antiplatelet agents. The risk of bleeding in these patients must be closely monitored.

Complex chronic patients as an emergent group with high risk of intracerebral haemorrhage: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Demographic aging is a generalised event and the proportion of older adults is increasing rapidly worldwide with chronic pathologies, disability, and complexity of health needs. The intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) has devastating consequences in high risk people. This study aims to quantify the incidence of ICH in complex chronic patients (CCP). METHODS: This is a multicentre, retrospective and community-based cohort study of 3594 CCPs followed up from 01/01/2013 to 31/12/2017 in primary care without a history of previous ICH episode. The cases were identified from clinical records encoded with ICD-10 (10th version of the International Classification of Diseases) in the e-SAP database of the Catalan Health Institute. The main variable was the ICH episode during the study period. Demographic, clinical, functional, cognitive and pharmacological variables were included. Descriptive and logistic regression analyses were carried out to identify the variables associated with suffering an ICH. The independent risk factors were obtained from logistic regression models, ruling out the variables included in the HAS-BLED score, to avoid duplication effects. Results are presented as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). The analysis with the resulting model was also stratified by sex. RESULTS: 161 (4.4%) participants suffered an ICH episode. Mean age 87 ± 9 years; 55.9% women. The ICH incidence density was 151/10000 person-years [95%CI 127-174], without differences by sex. Related to subjects without ICH, presented a higher prevalence of arterial hypertension (83.2% vs. 74.9%; p = 0.02), hypercholesterolemia (55.3% vs. 47.4%, p = 0.05), cardiovascular disease (36.6% vs. 28.9%; p = 0.03), and use of antiplatelet drugs (64.0% vs. 52.9%; p = 0.006). 93.2% had a HAS-BLED score ≥ 3. The independent risk factors for ICH were identified: HAS-BLED ≥3 [OR 3.54; 95%CI 1.88-6.68], hypercholesterolemia [OR 1.62; 95%CI 1.11-2.35], and cardiovascular disease [OR 1.48 IC95% 1.05-2.09]. The HAS_BLED ≥3 score showed a high sensitivity [0.93 CI95% 0.89-0.97] and negative predictive value [0.98 (CI95% 0.83-1.12)]. CONCLUSIONS: In the CCP subgroup the incidence density of ICH was 5-60 times higher than that observed in elder and general population. The use of bleeding risk score as the HAS-BLED scale could improve the preventive approach of those with higher risk of ICH. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was retrospectively registered in ClinicalTrials.gov ( NCT03247049 ) on August 11/2017.

Risk of Long-Term Mortality for Complex Chronic Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Population-Based e-Cohort Observational Study.

INTRODUCTION: Over recent years there has been growing evidence of increased risk of mortality associated with hemorrhagic stroke among older patients. The main objective of this study is to propose and validate a prognostic life table for complex chronic patients after an intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) episode in primary care settings. METHODS: This was a multicenter and retrospective study (April 1, 2006-December 31, 2016) of a cohort from the general population presenting an episode of ICH from which a predictive model of mortality was obtained using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. In addition, Kaplan-Meier survival curves, the log-rank test, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the ability to stratify patients according to vital prognosis. We proceeded to external validation of the model through prospective monitoring (January 1, 2013-December 31, 2017) of the population of complex chronic patients with an episode of ICH. RESULTS: A total of 3594 people aged ≥ 65 years were identified as complex chronic patients (women 55.9%; mean age, 86.1 ± 8.4 years) of whom 161 suffered hemorrhagic stroke during the study period (January 1, 2013-December 31, 2017). The primary outcome was death from any cause within 5 years of follow-up after an ICH episode. The independent prognostic factors of mortality were age > 80 years (HR 1.048, 95% CI 1.021-1.076, p < 0.001) and HAS-BLED score (HR 1.369, 95% CI 1.057-1.774, p = 0.017). Compared to the general population, the incidence density/1000 person per year (15 vs 0.22) was significantly higher with a significantly lower annual lethality rate (17% vs 49.2%); and both the prognostic factors and the risk of stratified mortality showed different epidemiological patterns. The internal validation of the model was optimal (log-rank < 0.0001) in the general population, but its external validation was not significant in the complex chronic patient population (log-rank p = 0.104). CONCLUSIONS: The ICH-AP is a clinical scale that can improve the prognostic prediction of mortality in primary care after an episode of ICH in the general population, but it was not significant in its external validation in a population of complex chronic patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03247049.

Sex Differences in Long-Term Survival after a First Stroke with Intravenous Thrombolysis: Ebrictus Study.

BACKGROUND: A number of large trials have confirmed the benefits of thrombolysis in acute stroke, but there are gender differences. We sought to examine the relationship between sex and outcome after thrombolysis. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study including 1,272 incident ischemic strokes (597 in women) from April 1, 2006 to December 31, 2014. Statistical approaches were used for analyzing survival outcomes and their relationship with thrombolysis therapy. RESULTS: The death rates were lower (p = 0.003) in the thrombolysis therapy group with an incidence ratio of 0.57 (95% CI 0.39-0.83). 113 (8.8%) patients (53 women) received thrombolysis. They were significantly younger (69.2 ± 12.7 vs. 73.9 ± 12.5 years; p < 0.001), had higher NIHSS score (12.7 ± 6.3 vs. 7.3 ± 7.0; p < 0.001), spent more days in hospital (10.4 ± 8.3 vs. 8.3 ± 7.9; p < 0.001), and had a higher average Barthel score at discharge (85.5 ± 24.4 vs. 79.2 ± 28.6; p = 0.023). The male/female incidence ratio showed a significant decrease (p = 0.01) in the incidence of mortality in women and a better Barthel score. The thrombolysis improved the survival in the overall group with thrombolysis versus without thrombolysis (p = 0.028), in women versus in men with thrombolysis (p = 0.023), and in women with thrombolysis versus in those without thrombolysis (p < 0.001) but not in men with thrombolysis versus in those without thrombolysis (p = 0.743). The protective factors as regards mortality were thrombolysis therapy (95% CI 0.37-0.80; p = 0.002), Barthel score ≥ 60 (95% CI 0.81-0.94; p = 0.002), and cardiovascular secondary prevention 1 year after stroke (0.13, 95% CI 0.06-0.28). CONCLUSIONS: The stroke death rates were lower in women after thrombolysis treatment and suggest significant benefit for women in this setting. The overall benefit on survival of the patients treated with thrombolysis might be explained by the beneficial effect of the thrombolysis on the women.